• Title/Summary/Keyword: standardized precipitation index

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Geographic Distribution and Epidemiology of Lung Cancer During 2011 in Zhejiang Province of China

  • Lin, Xia-Lu;Chen, Yan;Gong, Wei-Wei;Wu, Zhao-Fan;Zou, Bao-Bo;Zhao, Jin-Shun;Gu, Hua;Jiang, Jian-Min
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.13
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    • pp.5299-5303
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    • 2014
  • Background: To explore etiology for providing scientific clues for the prevention of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Data for lung cancer incidence and meteorological geographic factors from 25 counties in Zhejiang province of China during 2011 were studied. Stepwise multiple regression and correlation analysis were performed to analyze the geographic distribution and epidemiology of lung cancer. Results: 8,291 new cases (5,998 in males and 2,293 females) of lung cancer during 2011 in Zhejiang province were reported in the 25 studied counties. Reported and standardized incidence rates for lung cancer were 58.0 and 47.0 per 100,000 population, respectively. The incidence of lung cancer increased with age. Geographic distribution analysis shows that the standardized incidence rates of lung cancer in northeastern Zhejiang province were higher than in the southwestern part, such as in Nanhu, Fuyang, Wuxing and Yuyao counties, where the rates were more than 50 per 100,000 population. In the southwestern Zhejiang province, for instance, in Yueqing, Xianju and Jiande counties, the standardized incidence rates of lung cancer were lower than 37 per 100,000 population. Spearman correlation tests showed that forest coverage rate, air quality index (AQI), and annual precipitation level are associated with the incidence of lung cancer. Conclusions: Lung cancer in Zhejiang province shows obvious regional differences. High incidence appears associated with low forest coverage rate, poor air quality and low annual precipitation. Therefore, increasing the forest coverage rate and controlling air pollution may play an important role in lung cancer prevention.

The study of Application of Drought Index Using Measured Soil Moisture at KoFlux Tower (KoFlux 타워에서 관측된 토양수분 값을 이용한 가뭄지수 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sooyoung;Jo, Hwan Bum;Lee, Seung Oh;Choi, Minha
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.6B
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    • pp.541-549
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    • 2010
  • While the number of rainy days is decreasing, the mean annual precipitation is increasing due to abnormal climate changes caused by the global warming in Korea. Owing to the biased-concentration of rainfall during specific short terms, not only flood but also drought becomes more and more serious. From the literature, it is easily found that previous studies about flood have been intensively conducted. However, previous studies about drought have been performed rarely. This study conducted the comparison between two representative drought indexes calculated from soil moisture and precipitation. Study area was Haenam-gun, Jeollanam-do in Korea. Soil Moisture Index(SMI) was calculated from soil moisture data while the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI) were calculated from meteorological data. All monthly data utilized in this study were observed at the KoFlux Tower. After the comparative analysis, three indexes showed similar tendency. Therefore, it is thought that the drought index using soil moisture measured at the KoFlux Tower is reasonable, which is because the soil moisture is immediately affected by all the meteorological factors.

Evaluating the contribution of calculation components to the uncertainty of standardized precipitation index using a linear mixed model (선형혼합모형을 활용한 표준강수지수 계산 인자들의 불확실성에 대한 기여도 평가)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Lee, Baesung;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.8
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    • pp.509-520
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    • 2023
  • Various drought indices are widely used for assessing drought conditions which are affected by many factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. The values of drought indices varies depending on hydro-meteorological data and calculation formulas, and the judgment of the drought condition may also vary. This study selected four calculation components such as precipitation data length, accumulation period, probability distribution function, and parameter estimation method as the sources of uncertainty in the calculation of standardized precipitation index (SPI), and evaluated their contributions to the uncertainty using root mean square error (RMSE) and linear mixed model (LMM). The RMSE estimated the overall errors in the SPI calculation, and the LMM was used to quantify the uncertainty contribution of each factor. The results showed that as the accumulation period increased and the data period extended, the RMSEs decreased. The comparison of relative uncertainty using LMM indicated that the sample size had the greatest impact on the SPI calculation. In addition, as sample size increased, the relative uncertainty related to the sample size used for SPI calculation decreased and the relative uncertainty associated with accumulation period and parameter estimation increased. In conclusion, to reduce the uncertainty in the SPI calculation, it is essential to collect long-term data first, followed by the appropriate selection of probability distribution models and parameter estimation methods that represent well the data characteristics.

Analysis of peak drought severity time and period using meteorological and hydrological drought indices (기상학적 가뭄지수와 수문학적 가뭄지수를 이용한 첨두가뭄심도 발생시점 및 가뭄기간 분석)

  • Kim, Soo Hyun;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.471-479
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzed the peak time of drought severity and drought period using meteorological and hydrological drought indices. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using rainfall data was used for meteorological drought and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) using streamflow data were used for the hydrological drought. This study was applied to the Cheongmicheon watershed which is a mixture area for rural and urban regions. The rainfall data period used in this study is 32.5 years (January of 1985~June of 2017) and the corresponding streamflow was simulated using SWAT. After the drought indices were calculated using the collected data, the characteristics of drought were analyzed by time series distribution of the calculated drought indices. Based on the results of the this study, it can be seen that hydrological drought occurs after meteorological drought. The difference between SDI and SPI peak occurrence time, difference in drought start date and average drought duration is greater than SSI and SPI. In general, SSI shows more severe than SDI. Therefore, various drought indices should be used at the identification of drought characteristics.

Assessment of Agricultural Drought Using Satellite-based TRMM/GPM Precipitation Images: At the Province of Chungcheongbuk-do (인공위성 기반 TRMM/GPM 강우 이미지를 이용한 농업 가뭄 평가: 충청북도 지역을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Taehwa;Kim, Sangwoo;Jung, Younghun;Shin, Yongchul
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.60 no.4
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we assessed meteorological and agricultural drought based on the SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index), SMP(Soil Moisture Percentile), and SMDI(Soil Moisture Deficit Index) indices using satellite-based TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)/GPM(Global Precipitation Measurement) images at the province of Chungcheongbuk-do. The long-term(2000-2015) TRMM/GPM precipitation data were used to estimate the SPI values. Then, we estimated the spatially-/temporally-distributed soil moisture values based on the near-surface soil moisture data assimilation scheme using the TRMM/GPM and MODIS(MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images. Overall, the SPI value was significantly affected by the precipitation at the study region, while both the precipitation and land surface condition have influences on the SMP and SMDI values. But the SMP index showed the relatively extreme wet/dry conditions compared to SPI and SMDI, because SMP only calculates the percentage of current wetness condition without considering the impacts of past wetness condition. Considering that different drought indices have their own advantages and disadvantages, the SMDI index could be useful for evaluating agricultural drought and establishing efficient water management plans.

Comparison of Meteorological Drought Indices Using Past Drought Cases of Taebaek and Sokcho (태백, 속초 과거 가뭄사례를 이용한 기상학적 가뭄지수의 비교 고찰)

  • Kang, Dong Ho;Nam, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.735-742
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    • 2019
  • Drought is a social phenomenon in which the degree of perception varies depending on the affected factors, and is defined as various relative concepts such as meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural drought, and climatological drought. In this study, a comparative analysis of meteorological drought among variously defined droughts was conducted and the applicability of the drought index was examined by comparing the actual drought cases and the results of meteorological drought index analysis. In order to compare the drought index, we used standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), China-Z Index (CZI), Modified CZI (MCZI) and Z-Score Index Respectively. Four drought indices were used for the Taebaek and Sokcho areas. The drought index was analyzed using the meteorological data from 1986 to 2015 for a duration of 3 months. As a result of the analysis, the SPI drought index was analyzed to be highly reproducible for the case of drought with past limited water series. In the case of CZI and MCZI drought indices, the number of extreme dry occurrences is similar to that of the past cases, but the reproducibility is low for the actual drought years. In the case of ZSI drought index, it is analyzed that the number of occurrences and the comparison with the past cases are inferior in reproducibility. For the meteorological drought index using precipitation, it would be effective to use the SPI drought index with the highest reproducibility and the past drought case.

Projection and Analysis of Drought according to Future Climate and Hydrological Information in Korea (미래 기후·수문 정보에 따른 국내 가뭄의 전망 및 분석)

  • Sohn, Kyung Hwan;Bae, Deg Hyo;Ahn, Jae Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to project and analyze drought conditions using future climate and hydrology information over South Korea. This study used three Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three hydrological models considering the uncertainty of future scenario. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Soil moisture Index (SSI) classified as meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts were estimated from the precipitation, runoff and soil moisture. The Mann-Kendall test showed high increase in future drought trend during spring and winter seasons, and the drought frequency of SRI and SSI is expected higher than that of SPI. These results show the high impact of climate change on hydrological and agriculture drought compared to meteorological drought.

Drought assessment by bivariate frequency analysis using standardized precipitation index and precipitation deficit: focused on Han river basin (표준강수지수와 강수 부족량을 이용한 이변량 가뭄빈도해석: 한강유역을 중심으로)

  • Kwon, Minsung;Sung, Jang Hyun;Kim, Tae-Woong;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.875-886
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    • 2018
  • This study evaluated drought severity by bivariate frequency analysis using drought magnitude and precipitation deficit. A drought event was defined by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the precipitation deficit was estimated using reference precipitation corresponding to the SPI -1. In previous studies, drought magnitude and duration were used for bivariate frequency analysis. However, since these two variables have a largely linear relationship, extensibility of drought information is not great compared to the univariate frequency analysis for each variable. In the case of drought in 2015, return periods of 'drought magnitude-precipitation deficit' in the Seoul, Yangpyeong, and Chungju indicated severe drought over 300 years. However, the result of 'drought magnitude-duration' showed a significant difference by evaluating the return period of about 10, 50, and 50 years. Although a drought including the rainy season was seriously lacking in precipitation, drought magnitude did not adequately represent the severity of the absolute lack of precipitation. This showed that there is a limit to expressing the actual severity of drought. The results of frequency analysis for 'drought magnitude-precipitation deficit' include the absolute deficit of precipitation information, so which could consider being a useful indicator to cope with drought.

Evaluating the impacts of extreme agricultural droughts under climate change in Hung-up watershed, South Korea

  • Sadiqi, Sayed Shajahan;Hong, Eun-Mi;Nam, Wan-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.143-143
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    • 2021
  • Climate change indicators, mainly frequent drought which has happened since the drought of 1994, 1995, and 2012 causing the devastating effect to the agricultural sector, and could be more disruptive given the context of climate change indicators by increasing the temperature and more variable and extreme precipitation. Changes in frequency, duration, and severity of droughts will have enormous impacts on agriculture production and water management. Since both the possibility of drought manifestation and substantial yield losses, we are propositioning an integrated method for evaluating past and future agriculture drought hazards that depend on models' simulations in the Hung-up watershed. to discuss the question of how climate change might influence the impact of extreme agriculture drought by assessing the potential changes in temporal trends of agriculture drought. we will calculate the temporal trends of future drought through drought indices Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Palmer drought severity index by using observed data of (1991-2020) from Wonju meteorological station and projected climate change scenarios (2021-2100) of the Representative Concentration Pathways models (RCPs). expected results confirmed the frequency of extreme agricultural drought in the future projected to increase under all studied RCPs. at present 100 years drought is anticipated to happen since the result showing under RCP2.6 will occur every 24 years, RCP4.5 every 17 years, and RCPs8.5 every 7 years, and it would be double in the largest warming scenarios. On another side, the result shows unsupportable water management, could cause devastating consequences in both food production and water supply in extreme events. Because significant increases in the drought magnitude and severity like to be initiate at different time scales for each drought indicator. Based on the expected result that the evaluating the impacts of extreme agricultural droughts and recession could be used for the development of proactive drought risk management, policies for future water balance, prioritize sustainable strengthening and mitigation strategies.

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