• Title/Summary/Keyword: spatio-temporal models

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Estimating Precise Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Weather Condition Using Semi-Variogram in Small Scale Recreation Forest (Semi-Variogram을 이용한 소규모 자연휴양림 내기상조건의 정밀 시공간 분포 추정)

  • LIM, Chul-Hee;RYU, Dong-Hoon;SONG, Chol-Ho;ZHU, Yong-Yan;LEE, Woo-Kyun;KIM, Min-Seon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2015
  • As forest therapy is getting more attention than ever, it is important to organize time for activity and location based on spatio-temporal distribution of weather condition in forest. This study aimed to analyze precise spatio-temporal distribution of weather condition by installing long-term weather monitoring device in Yonghyun national natural recreation forest and using acquired weather data in order to support forest recreation and therapy activity. First, we statistically compared 4 models of semi-variogram and the results were all similar. We selected and analyzed the circular model for this study because it was presumed to be the best model for this case. We derived 128 results from the circular model and through semi-variogram, we identified seasonal and temporal distributions of temperature and humidity. Then, we used boxplot, made of partial sill level, to identify significant differences in seasonal and temporal distributions. As a result, in spring and early morning, both temperature and humidity showed equalized result. On the other hand, in summer and early afternoon, both temperature and humidity showed uneven result. In spring and early morning, changes in weather condition are shown little from spatial shifting, it is ideal to perform recreational activities and forest therapy but in summer and early afternoon, it is unadvisable to do so as the changes in weather condition could be harmful unless any other means of preparations are made. This study proposes its significance by analyzing seasonal micro-weather of single recreation forest and presenting seasonal and temporal outcomes.

A Study on Development of Assessment Model for Spatio-Temporal Changes in River Bed Using Numerical Models (수치모형을 이용한 하상변동 시공간 평가 기법 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Chul-Moon;Lee, Jeong-Ju;Choi, Su-Won;Ahn, Won-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.12
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    • pp.975-990
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    • 2011
  • In this study, to develop an assessment method for spatio-temporal riverbed changes, a 1-dimensional model (HEC-RAS) and a 2-dimensional model (CCHE2D) were built and applied. As for the analysis of a riverbed's long-term change in a real stream, three new assessment methods were developed, which are called the "Sediment section cumulative curve", "Sediment section moment", and "Sediment probability distribution function." These methods were used to assess the characteristics of riverbed changes using a consistent valuation standard and to understand changes in quantities intuitively. From the results of this study, sediment characteristics of cross sections can be detected effectively by applying the "Sediment section cumulative curve" method to determine whether there is any sedimentation or erosion in total emission. The amount of sedimentation or erosion occurring in the right or left banks, which divided by center column, could be presented as one criterion by applying the "Sediment section moment" method. This approach could be utilized as an indicator for sediment predictions. Spatio-temporal sediment variables can be presented quantitatively by determining the mean and uncertain boundaries through the "Sediment probability distribution function", and finally, the results can be illustrated for each cross section to provide intuitive recognition.

Development of daily spatio-temporal downscaling model with conditional Copula based bias-correction of GloSea5 monthly ensemble forecasts (조건부 Copula 함수 기반의 월단위 GloSea5 앙상블 예측정보 편의보정 기법과 연계한 일단위 시공간적 상세화 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Kim, Min Ji;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1317-1328
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to provide a predictive model based on climate models for simulating continuous daily rainfall sequences by combining bias-correction and spatio-temporal downscaling approaches. For these purposes, this study proposes a combined modeling system by applying conditional Copula and Multisite Non-stationary Hidden Markov Model (MNHMM). The GloSea5 system releases the monthly rainfall prediction on the same day every week, however, there are noticeable differences in the updated prediction. It was confirmed that the monthly rainfall forecasts are effectively updated with the use of the Copula-based bias-correction approach. More specifically, the proposed bias-correction approach was validated for the period from 1991 to 2010 under the LOOCV scheme. Several rainfall statistics, such as rainfall amounts, consecutive rainfall frequency, consecutive zero rainfall frequency, and wet days, are well reproduced, which is expected to be highly effective as input data of the hydrological model. The difference in spatial coherence between the observed and simulated rainfall sequences over the entire weather stations was estimated in the range of -0.02~0.10, and the interdependence between rainfall stations in the watershed was effectively reproduced. Therefore, it is expected that the hydrological response of the watershed will be more realistically simulated when used as input data for the hydrological model.

Spatio-temporal analysis with risk factors for five major violent crimes (위험요인이 포함된 시공간 모형을 이용한 5대 강력범죄 분석)

  • Jeon, Young Eun;Kang, Suk-Bok;Seo, Jung-In
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.619-629
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    • 2022
  • The five major violent crimes including murder, robbery, rape·forced indecent act, theft, and violence are representative crimes that threaten the safety of members of society and occur frequently in real life. These crimes have negative effects such as lowering the quality of citizens' life. In the case of Seoul, the capital of Korea, the risk for the five major violent crimes is increasing because the population density of Seoul is increasing as a large number of people in the provinces move to Seoul. In this study, to reduce this risk, the relative risk for the occurrence of the five major violent crimes in Seoul is modeled using three spatio-temporal models. In addition, various risk factors are included to identify factors that significantly affect the relative risk of the five major violent crimes. The best model is selected in terms of the deviance information criterion, and the analysis results including various visualizations for the best model are provided. This study will help to establish efficient strategies to sustain people's safe everyday living by analyzing important risk factors affecting the risk of the five major violent crimes and the relative risk of each region.

Comparison of CALPUFF and HYSPLIT Models for Atmospheric Dispersion Simulations of Radioactive Materials (CALPUFF와 HYSPLIT의 방사성물질 대기확산 특성 비교)

  • An, Hye Yeon;Kang, Yoon-Hee;Song, Sang-Keun;Kim, Yoo-Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.573-584
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material ($^{137}Cs$) was simulated with regard to its impact within a 50-km radius from the Kori Nuclear Power Plant (NKPP) based on two different types of models (the non-steady-state puff model CALPUFF and the lagrangian model HYSPLIT) during the spring of 2012 (May 2012). The dispersion distribution of $^{137}Cs$ calculated in the CALPUFF model was similar to that of the HYSPLIT model, but the magnitudes of differences in its spatio-temporal concentrations between the two models were different. The $^{137}Cs$ concentrations simulated by the CALPUFF were significantly lower than those of the HYSPLIT due to a limitation of puff models (e.g. puff size growth over time). The CALPUFF had the advantage of determining the dispersion of radioactive materials and their impacts on the surrounding regions, compared with the HYSPLIT that had high concentrations of $^{137}Cs$ in only small local areas with the movement of air masses along the local winds.

Spatial Data Analysis for the U.S. Regional Income Convergence,1969-1999: A Critical Appraisal of $\beta$-convergence (미국 소득분포의 지역적 수렴에 대한 공간자료 분석(1969∼1999년) - 베타-수렴에 대한 비판적 검토 -)

  • Sang-Il Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.212-228
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    • 2004
  • This paper is concerned with an important aspect of regional income convergence, ${\beta}$-convergence, which refers to the negative relationship between initial income levels and income growth rates of regions over a period of time. The common research framework on ${\beta}$-convergence which is based on OLS regression models has two drawbacks. First, it ignores spatially autocorrelated residuals. Second, it does not provide any way of exploring spatial heterogeneity across regions in terms of ${\beta}$-convergence. Given that empirical studies on ${\beta}$-convergence need to be edified by spatial data analysis, this paper aims to: (1) provide a critical review of empirical studies on ${\beta}$-convergence from a spatial perspective; (2) investigate spatio-temporal income dynamics across the U.S. labor market areas for the last 30 years (1969-1999) by fitting spatial regression models and applying bivariate ESDA techniques. The major findings are as follows. First, the hypothesis of ${\beta}$-convergence was only partially evidenced, and the trend substantively varied across sub-periods. Second, a SAR model indicated that ${\beta}$-coefficient for the entire period was not significant at the 99% confidence level, which may lead to a conclusion that there is no statistical evidence of regional income convergence in the US over the last three decades. Third, the results from bivariate ESDA techniques and a GWR model report that there was a substantive level of spatial heterogeneity in the catch-up process, and suggested possible spatial regimes. It was also observed that the sub-periods showed a substantial level of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in ${\beta}$-convergence: the catch-up scenario in a spatial sense was least pronounced during the 1980s.

Analyzing Spatio-Temporal Variation of Groundwater Recharge in Jeju Island by using a Convolution Method (컨벌루션 기법을 이용한 제주도 지하수 함양량의 시공간적 변화 분석)

  • Shin, Kyung-Hee;Koo, Min-Ho;Chung, Il-Moon;Kim, Nam-Won;Kim, Gi-Pyo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.625-635
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    • 2014
  • Temporal variation of groundwater levels in Jeju Island reveals time-delaying and dispersive process of recharge, mainly caused by the hydrogeological feature that thickness of the unsaturated zone is highly variable. Most groundwater flow models have limitations on delineating temporal variation of recharge, although it is a major component of the groundwater flow system. A new mathematical model was developed to generate time series of recharge from precipitation data. The model uses a convolution technique to simulate the time-delaying and dispersive process of recharge. The vertical velocity and the dispersivity are two parameters determining the time series of recharge for a given thickness of the unsaturated zone. The model determines two parameters by correlating the generated recharge time series with measured groundwater levels. The model was applied to observation wells of Jeju Island, and revealed distinctive variations of recharge depending on location of wells. The suggested model demonstrated capability of the convolution method in dealing with recharge undergoing the time-delaying and dispersive process. Therefore, it can be used in many groundwater flow models for generating a time series of recharge.

Evaluation of groundwater recharge rate for land uses at Mandae stream watershed using SWAT HRU Mapping module (SWAT HRU Mapping module을 이용한 해안면 만대천 유역의 토지이용별 지하수 함양량 평가)

  • Ryu, Jichul;Choi, Jae Wan;Kang, Hyunwoo;Kum, Donghyuk;Shin, Dong Suk;Lee, Ki Hwan;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.743-753
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    • 2012
  • The hydrologic models, capable of simulating groundwater recharge for long-term period and effects on it of crops management in the agricultural areas, have been used to compute groundwater recharge in the agricultural fields. Among these models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been widely used because it could interpret hydrologic conditions for the long time considering effects of weather condition, land uses, and soil. However the SWAT model couldn't represent the spatial information of Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU), the SWAT HRU mapping module was developed in 2010. With this capability, it is possible to assume and analyze spatio-temporal groundwater recharge. In this study, groundwater recharge of rate for various crops in the Mandae stream watershed was estimated using SWAT HRU Mapping module, which can simulate spato-temporal recharge rate. As a result of this study, Coefficient of determination ($R^2$) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for flow calibration were 0.80 and 0.72, respectively, and monthly groundwater recharge of Mandae watershed in Haean-myeon was 381.24 mm/year. It was 28% of total precipitation in 2009. Groundwater recharge rate was 73.54 mm/month and 73.58 mm/month for July and August 2009, which is approximately 18 times of groundwater recharge rate for December 2009. The groundwater recharges for each month through the year were varying. The groundwater recharge was smaller in the spring and winter seasons, relatively. So, it is necessary to enforce proper management of groundwater recharge during droughty season. Also, the SWAT HRU Mapping module could show the result of groundwater recharge as a GIS map and analyze spatio-temporal groundwater recharge. So, this method, proposed in this study, would be quite useful to make groundwater management plans at agriculture-dominant watershed.

Spatial Characteristics and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land Changes by Coupling Spatial Autocorrelation Model and Spatial-temporal Big Data

  • Hua, Wang;Yuxin, Zhu;Mengyu, Wang;Jiqiang, Niu;Xueye, Chen;Yang, Zhang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.767-785
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    • 2021
  • With the rapid development of information technology, it is now possible to analyze the spatial patterns of cultivated land and its evolution by combining GIS, geostatistical analysis models and spatiotemporal big data for the dynamic monitoring and management of cultivated land resources. The spatial pattern of cultivated land and its evolutionary patterns in Luoyang City, China from 2009 to 2019 were analyzed using spatial autocorrelation and spatial autoregressive models on the basis of GIS technology. It was found that: (1) the area of cultivated land in Luoyang decreased then increased between 2009 and 2019, with an overall increase of 0.43% in 2019 compared to 2009, with cultivated land being dominant in the overall landscape of Luoyang; (2) cultivated land holdings in Luoyang are highly spatially autocorrelated, with the 'high-high'-type area being concentrated in the border area directly north and northeast of Luoyang, while the 'low-low'-type area is concentrated in the south and in the municipal area of Luoyang, and being heavily influenced by topography and urbanization. The expansion determined during the study period mainly took place in the Luoyang City, with most of it being transferred from the 'high-low'-type area; (3) elevation, slope and industrial output values from analysis of the bivariate spatial autocorrelation and spatial autoregressive models of the drivers all had significant effects on the amount of cultivated land holdings, with elevation having a positive effect, and slope and industrial output having a negative effect.

Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques in Urban Weather Prediction using Air Quality Sensor Data (실외공기측정기 자료를 이용한 도심 기상 예측 기계학습 모형 비교)

  • Jong-Chan Park;Heon Jin Park
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2021
  • Recently, large and diverse weather data are being collected by sensors from various sources. Efforts to predict the concentration of fine dust through machine learning are being made everywhere, and this study intends to compare PM10 and PM2.5 prediction models using data from 840 outdoor air meters installed throughout the city. Information can be provided in real time by predicting the concentration of fine dust after 5 minutes, and can be the basis for model development after 10 minutes, 30 minutes, and 1 hour. Data preprocessing was performed, such as noise removal and missing value replacement, and a derived variable that considers temporal and spatial variables was created. The parameters of the model were selected through the response surface method. XGBoost, Random Forest, and Deep Learning (Multilayer Perceptron) are used as predictive models to check the difference between fine dust concentration and predicted values, and to compare the performance between models.