• Title/Summary/Keyword: spatial regression model

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The Variations of Stratospheric Ozone over the Korean Peninsula 1985~2009 (한반도 상공의 오존층 변화 1985~2009)

  • Park, Sang Seo;Kim, Jhoon;Cho, Nayeong;Lee, Yun Gon;Cho, Hi Ku
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2011
  • The climatology in stratospheric ozone over the Korean Peninsula, presented in previous studies (e.g., Cho et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2005), is updated by using daily and monthly data from satellite and ground-based data through December 2009. In addition, long-term satellite data [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), 1979~2009] have been also analyzed in order to deduce the spatial distributions and temporal variations of the global total ozone. The global average of total ozone (1979~2009) is 298 DU which shows a minimum of about 244 DU in equatorial latitudes and increases poleward in both hemispheres to a maximum of about 391 DU in Okhotsk region. The recent period, from 2006 to 2009, shows reduction in total ozone by 6% relative to the values for the pre-1980s (1979~1982). The long-term trends were estimated by using a multiple linear regression model (e.g., WMO, 1999; Cho et al., 2003) including explanatory variables for the seasonal variation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and solar cycle over three different time intervals: a whole interval from 1979 to 2009, the former interval from 1979 to 1992, and the later interval from 1993 to 2009 with a turnaround point of deep minimum in 1993 is related to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The global trend shows -0.93% $decade^{-1}$ for the whole interval, whereas the former and the later interval trends amount to -2.59% $decade^{-1}$ and +0.95% $decade^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, the long-term total ozone variations indicate that there are positive trends showing a recovery sign of the ozone layer in both North/South hemispheres since around 1993. Annual mean total ozone (1985~2009) is distributed from 298 DU for Jeju ($33.52^{\circ}N$) to 352 DU for Unggi ($42.32^{\circ}N$) in almost zonally symmetric pattern over the Korean Peninsula, with the latitudinal gradient of 6 DU $degree^{-1}$. It is apparent that seasonal variability of total ozone increases from Jeju toward Unggi. The annual mean total ozone for Seoul shows 323 DU, with the maximum of 359 DU in March and the minimum of 291 DU in October. It is found that the day to day variability in total ozone exhibits annual mean of 5.7% in increase and -5.2% in decrease. The variability as large as 38.4% in increase and 30.3% in decrease has been observed, respectively. The long-term trend analysis (e.g., WMO, 1999) of monthly total ozone data (1985~2009) merged by satellite and ground-based measurements over the Korean Peninsula shows increase of 1.27% $decade^{-1}$ to 0.80% $decade^{-1}$ from Jeju to Unggi, respectively, showing systematic decrease of the trend magnitude with latitude. This study also presents a new analysis of ozone density and trends in the vertical distribution of ozone for Seoul with data up to the end of 2009. The mean vertical distributions of ozone show that the maximum value of the ozone density is 16.5 DU $km^{-1}$ in the middle stratospheric layer between 24 km and 28 km. About 90.0% and 71.5% of total ozone are found in the troposphere and in the stratosphere between 15 and 33 km, respectively. The trend analysis reconfirms the previous results of significant positive ozone trend, of up to 5% $decade^{-1}$, in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (0~24 km), with negative trend, of up to -5% $decade^{-1}$, in the stratosphere (24~38 km). In addition, the Umkehr data show a positive trend of about 3% $decade^{-1}$ in the upper stratosphere (38~48 km).

Comparison of Forest Carbon Stocks Estimation Methods Using Forest Type Map and Landsat TM Satellite Imagery (임상도와 Landsat TM 위성영상을 이용한 산림탄소저장량 추정 방법 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Min;Lee, Jung-Bin;Jung, Jaehoon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.449-459
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    • 2015
  • The conventional National Forest Inventory(NFI)-based forest carbon stock estimation method is suitable for national-scale estimation, but is not for regional-scale estimation due to the lack of NFI plots. In this study, for the purpose of regional-scale carbon stock estimation, we created grid-based forest carbon stock maps using spatial ancillary data and two types of up-scaling methods. Chungnam province was chosen to represent the study area and for which the $5^{th}$ NFI (2006~2009) data was collected. The first method (method 1) selects forest type map as ancillary data and uses regression model for forest carbon stock estimation, whereas the second method (method 2) uses satellite imagery and k-Nearest Neighbor(k-NN) algorithm. Additionally, in order to consider uncertainty effects, the final AGB carbon stock maps were generated by performing 200 iterative processes with Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, compared to the NFI-based estimation(21,136,911 tonC), the total carbon stock was over-estimated by method 1(22,948,151 tonC), but was under-estimated by method 2(19,750,315 tonC). In the paired T-test with 186 independent data, the average carbon stock estimation by the NFI-based method was statistically different from method2(p<0.01), but was not different from method1(p>0.01). In particular, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the smoothing effect of k-NN algorithm and mis-registration error between NFI plots and satellite image can lead to large uncertainty in carbon stock estimation. Although method 1 was found suitable for carbon stock estimation of forest stands that feature heterogeneous trees in Korea, satellite-based method is still in demand to provide periodic estimates of un-investigated, large forest area. In these respects, future work will focus on spatial and temporal extent of study area and robust carbon stock estimation with various satellite images and estimation methods.

A Study on Estimating Rice Yield in DPRK Using MODIS NDVI and Rainfall Data (MODIS NDVI와 강수량 자료를 이용한 북한의 벼 수량 추정 연구)

  • Hong, Suk Young;Na, Sang-Il;Lee, Kyung-Do;Kim, Yong-Seok;Baek, Shin-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.441-448
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    • 2015
  • Lack of agricultural information for food supply and demand in Democratic People's republic Korea(DPRK) make people sometimes confused for right and timely decision for policy support. We carried out a study to estimate paddy rice yield in DPRK using MODIS NDVI reflecting rice growth and climate data. Mean of MODIS $NDVI_{max}$ in paddy rice over the country acquired and processed from 2002 to 2014 and accumulated rainfall collected from 27 weather stations in September from 2002 to 2014 were used to estimated paddy rice yield in DPRK. Coefficient of determination of the multiple regression model was 0.44 and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) was 0.27 ton/ha. Two-way analysis of variance resulted in 3.0983 of F ratio and 0.1008 of p value. Estimated milled rice yield showed the lowest value as 2.71 ton/ha in 2007, which was consistent with RDA rice yield statistics and the highest value as 3.54 ton/ha in 2006, which was not consistent with the statistics. Scatter plot of estimated rice yield and the rice yield statistics implied that estimated rice yield was higher when the rice yield statistics was less than 3.3 ton/ha and lower when the rice yield statistics was greater than 3.3 ton/ha. Limitation of rice yield model was due to lower quality of climate and statistics data, possible cloud contamination of time-series NDVI data, and crop mask for rice paddy, and coarse spatial resolution of MODIS satellite data. Selection of representative areas for paddy rice consisting of homogeneous pixels and utilization of satellite-based weather information can improve the input parameters for rice yield model in DPRK in the future.

Predicting the Effects of Rooftop Greening and Evaluating CO2 Sequestration in Urban Heat Island Areas Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning (위성영상과 머신러닝 활용 도시열섬 지역 옥상녹화 효과 예측과 이산화탄소 흡수량 평가)

  • Minju Kim;Jeong U Park;Juhyeon Park;Jisoo Park;Chang-Uk Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_1
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    • pp.481-493
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    • 2023
  • In high-density urban areas, the urban heat island effect increases urban temperatures, leading to negative impacts such as worsened air pollution, increased cooling energy consumption, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. In urban environments where it is difficult to secure additional green spaces, rooftop greening is an efficient greenhouse gas reduction strategy. In this study, we not only analyzed the current status of the urban heat island effect but also utilized high-resolution satellite data and spatial information to estimate the available rooftop greening area within the study area. We evaluated the mitigation effect of the urban heat island phenomenon and carbon sequestration capacity through temperature predictions resulting from rooftop greening. To achieve this, we utilized WorldView-2 satellite data to classify land cover in the urban heat island areas of Busan city. We developed a prediction model for temperature changes before and after rooftop greening using machine learning techniques. To assess the degree of urban heat island mitigation due to changes in rooftop greening areas, we constructed a temperature change prediction model with temperature as the dependent variable using the random forest technique. In this process, we built a multiple regression model to derive high-resolution land surface temperatures for training data using Google Earth Engine, combining Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite data. Additionally, we evaluated carbon sequestration based on rooftop greening areas using a carbon absorption capacity per plant. The results of this study suggest that the developed satellite-based urban heat island assessment and temperature change prediction technology using Random Forest models can be applied to urban heat island-vulnerable areas with potential for expansion.

Outlook on Variation of Water Resources in Korea under SRES A2 Scenario (A2 시나리오에 따른 국내 수자원의 변동성 전망)

  • Bae, Deg-Hyo;Jung, Il-Won;Lee, Byong-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.921-930
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to present temporal-spatial variation of water resources on climate change impacts using the IPCC SRES A2 scenario and dynamical downscaling of the results (using the MM5 model with a resolution of 27km by 27km) at 139 sub-basins in Korea. The variation of runoff shows differences in the change of rate according to the each sub-basins and analysis durations. It has increased in the sub-basins located in Han river basin and east part of it, the other basins have decreased. In seasonal analysis, runoff in autumn and winter have increased, while in spring and summer have decreased. The results of frequency analyzing classified runoff(Low flow(Q$\leq$5mm), Normal flow(5$\geq$100mm)) show that low flow increase in most of the sub-basins for 2031-2060 and 2061-2090. In the case of high flow, it have higher frequency ranging from -100% to 500% than low flow. Regardless of the variation of mean runoff, maximum discharge appeared to be increase in process of time. The regression method is used to figure out the relationship between the rate of runoff change and mean temperature, mean precipitation under A2 scenario. The mean actual evapotranspirations from the regression equations increased by 3.4$\sim$5.3% for the change of $1^{\circ}C$. Also, for the precipitation change of $\pm$10%, runoff variety range is -18.2$\sim$+12.4% in Han River, -21.6$\sim$+14.6% in Nakdong River, -17.5$\sim$+11.5% in Gum River, -18.4$\sim$+10.6% in Sumjin River, -19.9$\sim$+12.7% Youngsan River basin.

Observation of Ice Gradient in Cheonji, Baekdu Mountain Using Modified U-Net from Landsat -5/-7/-8 Images (Landsat 위성 영상으로부터 Modified U-Net을 이용한 백두산 천지 얼음변화도 관측)

  • Lee, Eu-Ru;Lee, Ha-Seong;Park, Sun-Cheon;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_2
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    • pp.1691-1707
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    • 2022
  • Cheonji Lake, the caldera of Baekdu Mountain, located on the border of the Korean Peninsula and China, alternates between melting and freezing seasonally. There is a magma chamber beneath Cheonji, and variations in the magma chamber cause volcanic antecedents such as changes in the temperature and water pressure of hot spring water. Consequently, there is an abnormal region in Cheonji where ice melts quicker than in other areas, freezes late even during the freezing period, and has a high-temperature water surface. The abnormal area is a discharge region for hot spring water, and its ice gradient may be used to monitor volcanic activity. However, due to geographical, political and spatial issues, periodic observation of abnormal regions of Cheonji is limited. In this study, the degree of ice change in the optimal region was quantified using a Landsat -5/-7/-8 optical satellite image and a Modified U-Net regression model. From January 22, 1985 to December 8, 2020, the Visible and Near Infrared (VNIR) band of 83 Landsat images including anomalous regions was utilized. Using the relative spectral reflectance of water and ice in the VNIR band, unique data were generated for quantitative ice variability monitoring. To preserve as much information as possible from the visible and near-infrared bands, ice gradient was noticed by applying it to U-Net with two encoders, achieving good prediction accuracy with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 140 and a correlation value of 0.9968. Since the ice change value can be seen with high precision from Landsat images using Modified U-Net in the future may be utilized as one of the methods to monitor Baekdu Mountain's volcanic activity, and a more specific volcano monitoring system can be built.

A Comparative Study on Factors Affecting Satisfaction by Travel Purpose for Urban Demand Response Transport Service: Focusing on Sejong Shucle (도심형 수요응답 교통서비스의 통행목적별 만족도 영향요인 비교연구: 세종특별자치시 셔클(Shucle)을 중심으로)

  • Wonchul Kim;Woo Jin Han;Juntae Park
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.132-141
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    • 2024
  • In this study, the differences in user satisfaction and the variables influencing the satisfaction with demand response transport (DRT) by travel purpose were compared. The purpose of DRT travel was divided into commuting/school and shopping/leisure travel. A survey conducted on 'Shucle' users in Sejong City was used for the analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was applied to minimize the overfitting problems of the multilinear model. The results of the analysis confirmed the possibility that the introduction of the DRT service could eliminate the blind spot in the existing public transportation, reduce the use of private cars, encourage low-carbon and public transportation revitalization policies, and provide optimal transportation services to people who exhibit intermittent travel behaviors (e.g., elderly people, housewives, etc.). In addition, factors such as the waiting time after calling a DRT, travel time after boarding the DRT, convenience of using the DRT app, punctuality of expected departure/arrival time, and location of pickup and drop-off points were the common factors that positively influenced the satisfaction of users of the DRT services during their commuting/school and shopping/leisure travel. Meanwhile, the method of transfer to other transport modes was found to affect satisfaction only in the case of commuting/school travel, but not in the case of shopping/leisure travel. To activate the DRT service, it is necessary to consider the five influencing factors analyzed above. In addition, the differentiating factors between commuting/school and shopping/leisure travel were also identified. In the case of commuting/school travel, people value time and consider it to be important, so it is necessary to promote the convenience of transfer to other transport modes to reduce the total travel time. Regarding shopping/leisure travel, it is necessary to consider ways to create a facility that allows users to easily and conveniently designate the location of the pickup and drop-off point.