• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제55권5호
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• pp.485-491
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• 2022

Objectives: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern worldwide. Social contact patterns can affect the epidemiology and risk of airborne diseases such as TB. This study was designed to investigate the social contact patterns associated with TB. Methods: In this case-control study, groups of participants with and without TB were matched by age and sex. Participants reported the nature, location, frequency, and average duration of social contacts over 1 month. The duration and number of social and spatial contacts were compared between groups using the chi-square test and the t-test. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to quantify the relationship between social contact time and TB status. Data were analyzed using Stata version 11 statistical software. A p-value of <0.05 was considered to indicate statistical significance. Results: In this study, 80 patients with TB and 172 control participants were included, and a total of 3545 social contacts were registered. Social contact with family members (OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.40), contact with a person with TB (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.16 to 2.01), and contact at the participant's home (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.82) were significantly associated with TB status. Conclusions: The duration of long-term social contact, rather than the number of contacts, may be the main contact-related factor associated with TB transmission in this population. The focus of contact-tracing efforts should be on finding and treating both family members and long-term contacts in non-household settings.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.455-460
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• 2014

Background: The purpose of the present study was to determine geographic clustering of breast cancer incidence in Kanagawa Prefecture, using cancer registry data. The study also aimed at examining the association between socio-economic factors and any identified cluster. Materials and Methods: Incidence data were collected for women who were first diagnosed with breast cancer during the period from January to December 2006 in Kanagawa. The data consisted of 2,326 incidence cases extracted from the total of 34,323 Kanagawa Cancer Registration data issued in 2011. To adjust for differences in age distribution, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of breast cancer were calculated for each of 56 municipalities (e.g., city, special ward, town, and village) in Kanagawa by an indirect method using Kanagawa female population data. Spatial scan statistics were used to detect any area of elevated risk as a cluster for breast cancer deaths and/or incidences. The Student t-test was performed to examine differences in socio-economic variables, viz, persons per household, total fertility rate, age at first marriage for women, and marriage rate, between cluster and other regions. Results: There was a statistically significant cluster of breast cancer incidence (p=0.001) composed of 11 municipalities in southeastern area of Kanagawa Prefecture, whose SIR was 35 percent higher than that of the remainder of Kanagawa Prefecture. In this cluster, average value of age at first-marriage for women was significantly higher than in the rest of Kanagawa (p=0.017). No statistically significant clusters of breast cancer deaths were detected (p=0.53). Conclusions: There was a statistically significant cluster of high breast cancer incidence in southeastern area of Kanagawa Prefecture. It was suggested that the cluster region was related to the tendency to marry later. This study methodology will be helpful in the analysis of geographical disparities in cancer deaths and incidence.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.768-785
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• 2013

행정구역과 같은 공간 단위로 합산된 카운트 데이터는 지리학 연구에 있어 가장 기본적인 데이터이다. 카운트 데이터를 대상으로 하는 공간 군집 분석 연구가 지속적으로 수행되어 왔으나 상대적으로 큰 관심을 받지 못하였을 뿐만 아니라 여러 분야에서 산발적으로 이루어지면서 그 흐름은 물론 주요한 성과와 과제를 제대로 파악하기가 어려운 실정이다. 이 연구에서는 최근 20여 년 동안 이루어진 카운트 데이터 기반의 공간 군집분석 연구를 대상으로 동향과 방법론적 특성을 살펴본 후 이슈와 과제를 검토함으로써 지리학 연구에 시사하는 바를 파악하고자 한다. 지리학은 물론 보건이나 범죄 등의 영역에서 다양한 방법들이 사용되고 있는데, 이들은 그 목적이나 방법론적 특성이 비교적 뚜렷이 구분될 뿐만 아니라 통계학적 신뢰성과 관련된 이슈 또한 존재한다. 따라서 분석의 실행시 방법론에 대한 면밀한 검토가 필요하며, 향후 방법론과 관련된 실증 연구 및 분석 도구의 개발이 요구된다.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제28권
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• pp.5.1-5.7
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• 2013

Objectives Despite increasing availability of global positioning system (GPS), no research has been conducted to analyze GPS data for exposure opportunities associated with time at indoor and outdoor microenvironments. We developed location-based and time-weighted spatial measures that incorporate indoor and outdoor time-location data collected by GPS. Methods Time-location data were drawn from 38 female subjects in California who wore a GPS device for seven days. Ambient standard deviational ellipse was determined based on outdoor locations and time duration, while indoor time weighted standard deviational ellipse (SDE) was developed to incorporate indoor and outdoor times and locations data into the ellipse measure. Results Our findings indicated that there was considerable difference in the sizes of exposure potential measures when indoor time was taken into consideration, and that they were associated with day type (weekday/weekend) and employment status. Conclusions This study provides evidence that time-location weighted measure may provide better accuracy in assessing exposure opportunities at different microenvironments. The use of GPS likely improves the geographical details and accuracy of time-location data, and further development of such location-time weighted spatial measure is encouraged.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.325-334
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• 2015

한국의 고령화는 매우 빠른 속도로 진행되고 있고, 노인자살은 노인의 주요 사망원인이며 노인은 다른 연력층보다 자살의 고위험군으로 알려져있다. 고령화 시대에서 노인의 자살은 사회적인 문제로 대두되고 있으며 이를 예방하기 위해 노인자살에 대한 위험요인을 파악하고, 지역적 차이를 확인하는 것이 중요하다. 특히 노인의 자살문제에서는 지역사회와의 통합결여 등이 큰 원인으로 고려되기 때문이다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 공간적 상관관계를 고려하여 추정된 표준화사망률을 이용하여 질병지도를 작성하고자 하였다. 공간적 상관관계를 고려하기 위해서 simultaneous CAR model을 사용하였다. 2006년부터 2010년까지 통계청 사망자료를 이용하여 국내 시군구별 노인자살자수에 대해 두 모형을 적합시켜본 결과, 공간적 상관관계를 고려하지 않은 모형보다 공간적 상관관계를 고려한 모형이 더 좋은 모형임을 보였다. 또한 효율적인 베이지안 추론을 위해 격자망 방법 등을 고려하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.17-29
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• 2007

The major purpose of this article is the comparison of estimation method with Newton-Raphson, Kalman-filter, and prediction method with Kalman prediction. Conditional expectation in space time bilinear(STBL) model, which is a very powerful and parsimonious nonlinear time-series model for the space time series data can be viewed as a set of time series collected simultaneously at a number of spatial locations and time points, and which have appeared in a important applications areas: geography, geology, natural resources, ecology, epidemiology, etc.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.19-30
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• 2003

Spatiotemporal statistical models are used for analyzing space-time data in many fields, such as environmental sciences, meteorology, geology, epidemiology, forestry, hydrology, fishery, and so on. It is well known that classical spatiotemporal process modeling requires the estimation of space-time variogram or covariance functions. In practice, the estimation of such variogram or covariance functions are computationally difficult and highly sensitive to data structures. We investigate a Bayesian hierarchical model which allows the specification of a more realistic series of conditional distributions instead of computationally difficult and less realistic joint covariance functions. The spatiotemporal model investigated in this study allows both spatial component and autoregressive temporal component. These two features overcome the inability of pure time series models to adequately predict changes in trends in individual sites.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권10호
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• pp.4587-4590
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• 2016

Background: In many countries gastric cancer has the highest incidence among the gastrointestinal cancers and is the second most common cancer in Iran. The aim of this study was to identify and map high risk gastric cancer regions at the county-level in Iran. Methods: In this study we analyzed gastric cancer data for Iran in the years 2003-2010. Area-to-area Poisson kriging and Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) spatial models were applied to smoothing the standardized incidence ratios of gastric cancer for the 373 counties surveyed in this study. The two methods were compared in term of accuracy and precision in identifying high risk regions. Result: The highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to area-to-area Poisson kriging was in Meshkinshahr county in Ardabil province in north-western Iran (2.4,SD=0.05), while the highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to the BYM model was in Ardabil, the capital of that province (2.9,SD=0.09). Conclusion: Both methods of mapping, ATA Poisson kriging and BYM, showed the gastric cancer incidence rate to be highest in north and north-west Iran. However, area-to-area Poisson kriging was more precise than the BYM model and required less smoothing. According to the results obtained, preventive measures and treatment programs should be focused on particular counties of Iran.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.11-20
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• 2017

시간의 변화뿐만 아니라 공간 위치의 변화를 함께 고려한 자료를 공간 시계열 자료라고 한다. 공간 시계열 자기회귀 이동평균 모형과 공간 시계열 중선형 모형에 대해 소개하고 각각의 Kalman Filter 방법에 의한 모수 추정의 과정을 거쳐 최종 선택된 모형의 예측력을 비교하였다. 또한 공간 시계열 자료의 모형에 포함되는 가중행렬에 대하여 기존의 방법인 동일한 가중치와 더불어 거리에 비례한 가중치와 인구수에 비례한 가중치를 제안하였다. 실증분석을 위해 한국질병관리본부에서 수집한 유행성 이하 선염 자료를 활용하여 가중치를 달리한 공간 시계열 모형을 적합시키고 예측하였다. 예측 오차 제곱합을 활용하여 어느 모형이 가장 효과적인 모형인지 판정하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.413-421
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 5대 범죄중 사람의 생명과 신체에 심각한 위해를 가하는 강력범죄인 살인과 강도 범죄의 이변량 가산자료에 대해 이변량조건부자기회귀모형을 사용하여 공간상관성을 반영한 강력범죄모형을 제안하였다. 범죄자료와 같은 가산자료에 대한 과대산포 검정을 위해 우도비 검정 실시하였으며, 그 결과 과대산포가 유의하지 않음에 따라 공간포아송모형을 이용하였다. 실증예제로 2007년 서울시에서 제공하는 25개 자치구별 강력범죄자료를 지리정보시스템을 이용하여 강력범죄 발생실태를 시각화하였으며 강력범죄에 영향을 주는 다양한 요인들에 대하여 분석을 실시하였다.