• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• 천문학회지
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• 제47권6호
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• pp.209-214
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• 2014

In this study we develop a set of solar proton event (SPE) forecast models with NOAA scales by Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), one of neural network methods, using GOES solar X-ray flare data from 1976 to 2011. Our MLP models are the first attempt to forecast the SPE scales by the neural network method. The combinations of X-ray flare class, impulsive time, and location are used for input data. For this study we make a number of trials by changing the number of layers and nodes as well as combinations of the input data. To find the best model, we use the summation of F-scores weighted by SPE scales, where F-score is the harmonic mean of PODy (recall) and precision (positive predictive value), in order to minimize both misses and false alarms. We find that the MLP models are much better than the multiple linear regression model and one layer MLP model gives the best result.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.34.1-34.1
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• 2010

Solar proton events, whose fluxes are larger than 10 particles cm-2 sec-1 ster-1 for >10 MeV protons, have been observed since 1976. NOAA proton event list from 1997 to 2006 shows that most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. In this study, we carefully identified the sources of these events. For this, we used LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. First, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the CMEs are found to eject from the western hemisphere. Second, we searched a major active region in the front solar disk for several days before the proton events occurred by taking into account two facts: (1) The location of the active region is consistent with the position angle of a given CME and (2) there were several flares in the active region or the active region is the largest among several candidates. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce proton events without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of proton events by considering solar rotation rate, $13.2^{\circ}$ per day. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제49권12호
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• pp.1019-1025
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• 2021

거의 모든 우주 환경에서 태양전지 열화는 양성자에 의해 좌우된다. 정지궤도는 전자 방사선 벨트에 위치하지만 태양 이벤트에서 방출된 양성자는 여전히 태양전지 열화의 주된 요소이다. 2010년 6월 26일 천리안 1호가 발사된 이후로, 2012년 1월 23일에서 29일 그리고 2012년 3월 7일에서 14일에 다년 평균 관측 수준의 약 30배 이상의 플루언스를 갖는 양성자 이벤트가 관측되었다. 본 논문은 2012년 1월과 3월에 발생한 태양 양성자 이벤트에 의해 감시 셀의 개방회로 전압(Voc)과 션트 스위치에 연결된 한 섹션의 단락회로 전류(Isc)에 대한 태양전지 열화에 대해 연구한다. 태양전지의 성능을 평가하기 위해 전압과 전류의 비행 데이터는 온도, 지구-태양 거리, 태양 각도로 보정한 후 임무 초기 태양전지 특성과 비교한다. Voc 전압은 2012년 1월 양성자 이벤트 이전과 비교하여 2012년 3월 양성자 이벤트 이후에 약 23.6mV 감소되었다. 감소된 Voc 전압은 임무 초기값 2575mV에 대해 1% 미만이다. Isc 전류는 예상대로 2012년 3월 양성자 이벤트에서 무시할 정도로 감소되었다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.53.3-54
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• 2018

Solar Proton Events (SPEs) are the energetic phenomena related particle acceleration occurred in solar corona. Conventionally, they have been classified into two groups as the impulsive and gradual cases caused by reconnection in the flaring site and by shock generated by CME, respectively. In the previous studies, we classified these into four groups by analyzing the proton acceleration patterns in multi-energy channel observation. This showed that acceleration due to the magnetic reconnection may occur in the corona region relatively higher than the flaring site. In this study, we analyzes 54 SPEs observed in the energy band over 25 MeV from 2009 to 2013, where STEREO observations as well as SOHO can be utilized. From the multi-positional observation, we determine the exact time at which the Sun-Earth magnetic field line meets the CME shock structure by considering 3-dimensional structure of CME. Also, we determine the path length by considering the solar wind velocity for each event, so that the SPE onset time near the sun is obtained more accurately. Based on this study, we can get a more understanding of the correlation between CME progression and proton acceleration in the solar coronal region.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.163-173
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• 2001

본 논문에서는 아리랑 2호가 운용될 궤도의 우주방사능 환경 및 single event 영향(SEE)에 관하여 분석하였다. 위성체 외부 및 내부 방사능 환경으로서 지구 자기장 내부에 포획되어 활동하는 포획된 양자, 태양 및 태양계 외부에서 전달되는 SEP(solar energetic particle) 및 GCR(galactic cosmic ray)고 에너지 입자에 대하여 양자와 중이 온으로 구분하여 그들의 스펙트럼을 분석하였다. 아리랑 2호 전자소자로 사용 예정인 Intel 계열 80386 마이크로 프로세서 CPU에 대한 SEU 및 SEL발생률을 추정하였다. 분석결과, 정상적인 조건에서 포획된 양자나 고 에너지 양자에 의한 SEU 영향은 아리랑 2호 위성이 운용되는 3년동안 발생하지 않을 것으로 추정된다. 반면에, GCR 중이온에 의한 SEU 발생은 운용 중에 수차례 발생할 수 있는 것으로 추정되었다. 아리랑 2호는 탑재 소프트웨어의 프로세서 CPU오류 감지기능을 이용하여 SEU발생에 대처할 수 있는 시스템 레벨의 설계를 반영하고 있다.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2010년도 한국우주과학회보 제19권1호
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• pp.38.2-38.2
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• 2010

We have examined the occurrence probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending three flare parameters (X-ray peak flux, longitude, and impulsive time). For this we used NOAA SPEs from 1976 to 2006, and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we selected 166 proton events that were associated with major flares; 85 events associated with X-class flares and 81 events associated with M-class flares. Especially the occurrence probability strongly depends on these three parameters. In addition, the relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. Among NOAA SPEs from 1997 to 2006, most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. We carefully identified the sources of these events using LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. Specifically, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the history of active regions. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce SPEs without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of SPEs by considering solar rotation rate. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side. Now we are examining the occurrence probability of SPEs depending on CME parameters. Finally, we will discuss the future prospects on the development of an empirical SPE forecast model based on the information of flares and CMEs.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.90.1-90.1
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• 2011

We are developing empirical space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, and solar flares) forecast models based on solar information. These models have been set up with the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we present a concept of storm probability map depending on CME parameters (speed and location). Second, we suggested a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, directly observable from coronagraph observations, and demonstrated its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence was examined. Fourth, the relationship among coronal hole-CIR-storm relationship has been investigated, Fifth, the CIR forecast based on coronal hole information is possible but the storm forecast is challenging. Sixth, a new solar proton event (flux, strength, and rise time) forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameter (speed, angular width, and longitude) has been suggested. Seventh, we are examining the rates and probability of solar flares depending on sunspot McIntosh classification and its area change (as a proxy of flux change). Our results show that flux emergence greatly enhances the flare probability, about two times for flare productive sunspot regions.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.419-431
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• 2012

우주기상 극대기인 2003년은 지구상에 크나큰 재앙을 초래할 것으로 예견되고 있다. 특히 근년에 들어 지자기 폭풍에 의한 손상과 가시화 될 수 있는 대 폭풍피해 사례를 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이상에서 제시된 문제점에 대한 피해분석에 따른 궁극적인 우주기상정보시스템 모델 구축으로 피해 저감하고 대비방안을 설정하는 것이다. 구현방법으로는 uIT기반과 GIS기반의 우주기상 정보시스템 구축으로 우주폭풍에서 방사되는 우주복사폭풍(flare), 우주입자폭풍(solar proton event), 우주자기폭풍(geomagnetic storm) 등에 의한 분야별 폭풍피해를 분석하여 유형별 피해 대응에 대비할 수 있도록 하였다. 이로써 공간정보기반의 우주폭풍 전기전자 피해대비 운영관리시스템 구현은 GIS기법에 의한 의사결정지원 시스템으로 피해예측 및 방재환경을 스마트 IT환경과 융합한 첨단 정보시스템으로 구현하여 인명과 재산을 보전할 수 있는 방안으로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.74.2-74.2
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• 2014

We have presented a classic two-ribbon filament eruption occurred in the east side of NOAA active region 11850 at 21:00 UT on 29 September 2013. Interestingly, this filament eruption was not accompanied by any flares and just there was a slight brightening in X-rays, C1.2, associated with the eruption. An accompanying huge CME was appeared at 22:12 UT in the LASCO C2 field of view and it propagates into the interplanetary space with a speed of about 440 km/s. And the related solar proton event (S2) started at 05:05 UT and peaked at 20:05 UT on 30 September 2013. The CME arrival was recorded by the ACE spacecraft around 01:30 UT on 2 October 2013. Around the CME arrival time, the solar-wind speed reached at about 640 km/s and IMF Bz showed southward component (-27 nT). Finally, the filament eruption and the CME cause geomagnetic storm (G2) at 03:00 UT on 2 October 2013. We described the detailed evolution of the filament eruption and its related phenomena such as CME, proton event, geomegnetic storm and so on. In addition, we will discuss about the activation mechanism of the filament eruption without flares.