• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.343-349
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• 2012

The solar proton telescope (SPT) is considered as one of the scientific instruments to be installed in instruments for the study of space storm (ISSS) which is determined for next generation small satellite-1 (NEXTSat-1). The SPT is the instrument that acquires the information on energetic particles, especially the energy and flux of proton, according to the solar activity in the space radiation environment. We performed the simulation to determine the specification of the SPT using geometry and tracking 4 (GEANT4). The simulation was performed in the range of 0.6-1,000 MeV considering that the proton, which is to be detected, corresponds to the high energy region according to the solar activity in the space radiation environment. By using aluminum as a blocking material and adjusting the energy detection range, we determined total 7 channels (0.6~5, 5~10, 10~20, 20~35, 35~52, 52~72, and >72 MeV) for the energy range of SPT. In the SPT, the proton energy was distinguished using linear energy transfer to compare with or discriminate from relativistic electron for the channels P1-P3 which are the range of less than 20 MeV, and above those channels, the energy was determined on the basis of whether silicon semiconductor detector (SSD) signal can pass or not. To determine the optimal channel, we performed the conceptual design of payload which uses the SSD. The designed SPT will improve the understanding on the capture and decline of solar energetic particles at the radiation belt by measuring the energetic proton.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.49 no.12
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• pp.1019-1025
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• 2021

In nearly all space environments, the solar cell degradation is dominated by protons[1]. Even through a GEO orbit lines in the electron radiation belts, the protons emitted from any solar event will still dominate the degradation[1]. Since COMS launch on June 26 2010, the proton events with the fluence of more than approximately 30 times the average level of perennial observations were observed between January 23 - 29 2012 and March 07 - 14 2012[16]. This paper studies the solar cell degradation by solar proton events in January and March 2012 for the open circuit voltage(Voc) of a witness cell and the short circuit current(Isc) of a section connected to a shunt switch. To evaluate the performance of solar cell, the flight data of voltage and current are corrected to the temperature, the Earth-Sun distance and the Sun angle and then compare with the solar cell characteristics at BOL. The Voc voltage dropped about 23.6mV compare after the March 2012 proton events to before the January 2012 proton events. The Voc voltage dropped less than 1% at BOL, which is 2575mV. The Isc current decreased negligible, as expected, in the March 2012 proton events.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2009.10a
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• pp.37.2-37.2
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• 2009

In this study, we present a new empirical forecasting method of solar proton events based on flare parameters. For this we used NOAA solar energetic particle (SEP) events from 1976 to 2006 and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we found that about only 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{\circ}$ < L < $90W^{\circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{\circ}E$ < L < $90^{\circ}E$. The occurrence probability of solar proton events for flares with long duration (> 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). The relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude. Using these results for prediction of proton flux, we divided the data into 6 subgroups depending on two parameters: (1) 3 longitude ranges (east, center, and west) and (2) flare impulsive times (long and short). For each subgroup, we make a linear regression between the X-ray flare peak flux and the corresponding proton peak flux. The result shows that the proton flux in the eastern region is much better correlated with the X-ray flux than that in the western region.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.33.2-33.2
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• 2010

We have investigated a relationship among the solar proton events (SPEs), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares during the solar cycle 23 (1997-2006). Using 63 SPE dataset, we found that SPE rise time, duration time, and decrease times depend on CME speed and SPE peak intensity depends on the CME earthward direction parameter as well as CME speed and x-ray flare intensity. While inspecting the relation between SPE peak intensity and the CME earthward direction parameter, we found that there are two groups: first group consists of large 6 SPEs (> 10,000 pfu at >10 MeV proton channel of GOES satellite) and shows a very good correlation (cc=0.65) between SPE peak intensity and CME earthward direction parameter. The second group has a relatively weak SPE peak intensity and shows poor correlation between SPE peak intensity and the CME earthward direction parameter (cc=0.01). By investigating characteristics of 6 SPEs in the first group, we found that there are special common conditions of the extremely large proton events (group 1); (1) all the SPEs are associated with very fast halo CME (>1400km/s), (2) they are almost located at disk region, (3) they also accompany large flare (>M7), (4) all they are preceded by another wide CMEs, and (5) they all show helmet streamer nearby the main CME. In this presentation, we will give details of the energy spectra of the 6 SPE events from the ERNE/HED aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and onset time comparison among the SPE, flare, type II burst, and CME.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.53.3-54
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• 2018

Solar Proton Events (SPEs) are the energetic phenomena related particle acceleration occurred in solar corona. Conventionally, they have been classified into two groups as the impulsive and gradual cases caused by reconnection in the flaring site and by shock generated by CME, respectively. In the previous studies, we classified these into four groups by analyzing the proton acceleration patterns in multi-energy channel observation. This showed that acceleration due to the magnetic reconnection may occur in the corona region relatively higher than the flaring site. In this study, we analyzes 54 SPEs observed in the energy band over 25 MeV from 2009 to 2013, where STEREO observations as well as SOHO can be utilized. From the multi-positional observation, we determine the exact time at which the Sun-Earth magnetic field line meets the CME shock structure by considering 3-dimensional structure of CME. Also, we determine the path length by considering the solar wind velocity for each event, so that the SPE onset time near the sun is obtained more accurately. Based on this study, we can get a more understanding of the correlation between CME progression and proton acceleration in the solar coronal region.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.118.1-118.1
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• 2012

In situ observations from the Wind spacecraft that statistically analyzed the solar wind proton at 1 AU has indicated that the measured proton temperature anisotropies seems to be regulated by the oblique instabilities (the mirror and oblique firehose). This result is in contradiction with the prediction of linear kinetic theory that the ion-cyclotron (for ${\beta}_{\parallel}$ < 2) and parallel firehose (for ${\beta}_{\parallel}$ <10) would dominate over the oblique instabilities. Various kinds of physical mechanisms have been suggested to explain this disagreement between the observations and linear theory. All of the suggestions consider the solar wind as a unoform magnetized plasma. However the real space environment is replete with the intermediate spatio-temporal scale variations associated with various physical quantities, such as the magnetic field intensity and the solar wind density. In this paper we present that the pervasive intermediate-scale temporal variation of the local magnetic field intensity can lead to the modification of the proton temperature anisotropy versus beta inverse correlation for temperature-anisotropy-driven instabilities. By means of quasilinear kinetic theory involving such temporal variation, we construct the simulated solar wind proton data distribution associated the magnetic fluctuations in (${\beta}_{\parallel}$, $T_{\perp}/T_{\parallel}$) space. It is shown that the theoretically simulated proton distribution and a general trend of the enhanced fluctuations bounded by the oblique instabilities are consistent with in situ observations. Furthermore, the measure magnetic compressibility can be accounted for by the magnetic spectral signatures of the unstable modes.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.64.1-64.1
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• 2015

In the present study, we examine the dependence of solar proton peak flux at SOHO and STEREO on 3-D CME parameters (radial speed, angular width, and longitudinal angular separation between its source region and the magnetic footpoints of spacecraft). For this we consider 38 proton enhancements of 16 SEP events observed by SOHO, STEREO-A, and/or B from 2010 August to 2013 June. As a result, we find that the enhancements are strongly dependent on these three parameters. The correlation coefficient between proton peak flux and CME speed is about 0.42 for the cases the footpoints are located inside the lateral boundaries of angular widths, while there is no correlation for the events outside the boundaries. The correlation coefficient between peak flux and angular separation is -0.51. We find that most of strong proton events occur when their angular separations are closer to zero, supporting that most of the proton fluxes are generated near the CME noses rather than their flanks.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.34.1-34.1
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• 2010

Solar proton events, whose fluxes are larger than 10 particles cm-2 sec-1 ster-1 for >10 MeV protons, have been observed since 1976. NOAA proton event list from 1997 to 2006 shows that most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. In this study, we carefully identified the sources of these events. For this, we used LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. First, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the CMEs are found to eject from the western hemisphere. Second, we searched a major active region in the front solar disk for several days before the proton events occurred by taking into account two facts: (1) The location of the active region is consistent with the position angle of a given CME and (2) there were several flares in the active region or the active region is the largest among several candidates. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce proton events without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of proton events by considering solar rotation rate, $13.2^{\circ}$ per day. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.479-486
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• 2009

We studied the solar proton events (SPEs) associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the solar cycle 23 (1997-2006). Using 63 SPE dataset, we investigated the relationship among SPE, flare, and CME, and found that (1) SPE rise time and duration time depend on CME speed and the earthward direction parameter of the CME, and (2) the SPE peak intensity depends on CME speed and X-ray Flare intensity. While inspecting the relation between SPE peak intensity and the direction parameter, we found there are two groups: first group consists of large six SPEs (> 10,000 pfu at > 10 MeV proton channel of GOES satellite) and shows strong correlation (cc = 0.65) between SPE peak intensity and CME direction parameter. The second group has a weak intensity and shows poor correlation between SPE peak intensity and the direction parameter (cc = 0.01). By investigating characteristics of the first group, we found that all the SPEs are associated with very fast halo CME (> 1400km/s) and also they are mostly located at central region and within ${\pm}20^{\circ}$ latitude and ${\pm}30^{\circ}$ longitude strip.