• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.67.3-68
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• 2017

Bright rays are often observed after coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupt. These rays are dynamical structures along which plasmas move outward. We investigated the outflows along the post-CME rays observed by the COR2 on board STEREO Behind on 2013 September 21 and 22. We tracked two CMEs, two ray tips, and seven blobs using the NAVE optical flow technique. As a result, we found that the departure times of blobs and ray tips from the optimally chosen starting height of 0.5 $R{\odot}$ coincided with the occurrence times of the corresponding recurrent small flares within 10 minutes. These small flares took place many hours after the major flares. This result supports a magnetic reconnection origin of the outward flows along the post-CME ray and the importance of magnetic islands for understanding the process of magnetic reconnection. The total energy of magnetic reconnection maintaining the outflows for 40 hr is estimated at 1.4' 1030 erg. Further investigations of plasma outflows along post-CME rays will shed much light on the physical properties of magnetic reconnection occurring in the solar corona.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.83.1-83.1
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• 2011

Solar flares are very spectacular, and are associated with various phenomena. Coronal shocks or disturbances are one of such flare-related phenomena. Although Moreton waves and X-ray waves are well explained with MHD first mode shocks propagating in the corona, there still remains a big problem on the nature of the waves, since they are very rare phenomena. On the other hand, EIT waves (or EUV waves) have been paid attention to as another phenomenon of coronal disturbances. However, the physical features (velocity, opening angle, and so on) are much different from those for Moreton waves and X-ray waves. We report detailed features of the coronal disturbances associated with the 2010 February 7 and the 2010 August 18 flares. For the former flare we analyzed the H-alpha images obtained by SMART at Hida Observatory, Kyoto University, Japan and by a flare telescope at National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, the X-rays images taken by Hinode/XRT, and the EUV images obtained by the both satellites of STEREO, and found the Moreton wave, X-ray wave, and EIT wave, simultaneously. In the latter flare, on the other hand, we observed a very fast EUV wave in EUV images taken by SDO/AIA. The propagating speed is comparable to the MHD first mode wave, while there is no obvious evidence of shocks for this flare. From these results, we discuss the nature of coronal disturbances.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.61.1-61.1
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• 2017

As the application of deep-learning methods has been succeeded in various fields, they have a high potential to be applied to space weather forecasting. Convolutional neural network, one of deep learning methods, is specialized in image recognition. In this study, we apply the AlexNet architecture, which is a winner of Imagenet Large Scale Virtual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC) 2012, to the forecast of daily solar flare occurrence using the MatConvNet software of MATLAB. Our input images are SOHO/MDI, EIT $195{\AA}$, and $304{\AA}$ from January 1996 to December 2010, and output ones are yes or no of flare occurrence. We consider other input images which consist of last two images and their difference image. We select training dataset from Jan 1996 to Dec 2000 and from Jan 2003 to Dec 2008. Testing dataset is chosen from Jan 2001 to Dec 2002 and from Jan 2009 to Dec 2010 in order to consider the solar cycle effect. In training dataset, we randomly select one fifth of training data for validation dataset to avoid the over-fitting problem. Our model successfully forecasts the flare occurrence with about 0.90 probability of detection (POD) for common flares (C-, M-, and X-class). While POD of major flares (M- and X-class) forecasting is 0.96, false alarm rate (FAR) also scores relatively high(0.60). We also present several statistical parameters such as critical success index (CSI) and true skill statistics (TSS). All statistical parameters do not strongly depend on the number of input data sets. Our model can immediately be applied to automatic forecasting service when image data are available.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.123.2-123.2
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• 2012

We investigate the solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability in terms of the sunspot classification supplemented with sunspot area and its changes. For this we use the NOAA active region data and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive eleven sunspot classes in the McIntosh sunspot group classification. Sunspot area and its changes can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. We classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups by its area: "Large" and "Small". In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot area changes: "Decrease", "Steady", and "Increase". As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the "Increase" sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares in the 'Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the "Increase" sub-group is three times higher than that of the "Steady" sub-group. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance the occurrence of major solar flares.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.87.2-87.2
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• 2012

H${\alpha}$ transient bright kernels may be an important diagnostic of energy conversion processes occurring in the choromosphere during flares. We observed an H${\alpha}$ kernel that occurred in AR 11263 in associated with a small flare on 2011 Autust 5th using the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph installed at the 1.6m New Solar Telescope of Big Bear Solar Observatory. We find that both the H${\alpha}$ line and the CaII 8542${\AA}$ line appear in emission, with a red asymmetry in that they display red wings of enhanced emission. The red asymmetry shows 5-30 km/s downward motion for 8 minutes. We determine some physical parameters by adopting the Cloud mode and discuss the physical meaning of these results.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2011.06a
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• pp.27-28
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• 2011

A solar flares have the 11-year cycle and release a large energy which may produce coronal mass ejections (CME). The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) predicted that the sun spot activity will be maximized in 2013-2014. A strong solar flare can cause the disturbance of global positioning system including various communication of TV, radio broadcasting. The actual solar storm in 1989 caused power outages in Canada during 9 hours and about 600 million people had experienced a blackout. Such a solar storm can shorten the GPS satellite's life span about 5 to 10 years which can be resulted in economic loss considering the amount of multi-billion won. This paper analyzed the recent solar storm of X-class occurred on 15th of February about 10:45 this year that was reached Korea (Bohyun observatory) on 18th of February about 10:30 (local time), and compared with the data of before and after a week. The proton data of 18th of February considered that the solar strom reached on earth showed a fluctuation compared to the data of before and after a week. The positioning results at Daejeon also showed higher positioning error compared to the data of before and after a week results.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.477-482
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• 2011

Solar flares have the 11-year cycle and release a large energy which may produce coronal mass ejections (CME). The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) predicted that the sun spot activity will be maximized in 2013-2014. A strong solar flare can cause the disturbance of global positioning system including various communication of TV, radio broadcasting. The actual solar storm in 1989 caused power outages in Canada during 9 hours and about 600 million people had experienced a blackout. Such a solar storm can shorten the GPS satellite's life span about 5 to 10 years which can resulted in economic loss considering the amount of multi-billion won. This paper analyzed the influence of recent X-class solar storm occurred on 15th of February about 10:45 this year that was reached Korea (Bohyun observatory) on 18th of February about 10:30 (01:30 - UTC), and compared with the data before and after a week. The proton data of 18th of February considered that the solar storm reached on earth showed a fluctuation compared to the data before and after a week. The positioning results at Daejeon and Seoul of Korea also showed higher positioning error compared to the data before and after a week results.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.38-38
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• 2004

In this talk, we present a good example of extreme solar and geomagnetic activities from October to November, 2003. These activities are characterized by very large sunspot groups, X-class solar flares, strong particle events, and huge geomagnetic storms. We discuss ground-based and space-based data in terms of space weather scales. We applied the CME propagation models to these events in order to predict the arrivals of heliospheric disturbances. (omitted)

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.29 no.spc1
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• pp.303-305
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• 1996

The evolution of solar magnetic arcades is investigated with the use of MHD simulations imposing resistivity on sheared magnetic fields. It is found that there is a critical amount of shear, over which magnetic reconnection can take place ill an arcade-like field geometry to create a magnetic island. The process leading to reconnect ion cannot. be solely attributed to a tearing instability, but rather to a reactive evolution of the magnetic arcade under resistivity. The natures of the arcade reconnection are governed by the spatial pattern of resistivity. A fast reconnection with a small shock angle can only be achieved when the diffusion region is localized. In this case. a highly collimated reconnect ion outflow can tear the plasmoid into a pair, and most of principal features in solar eruptive processes are reproduced.