• 천문학회지
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• 제29권spc1호
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• pp.327-328
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• 1996

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.49-49
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• 2011

• 천문학회보
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• 제23권
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• pp.40-40
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• 1998

• 천문학회보
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.88.2-88.2
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• 2012

We investigate solar flare occurrence rate and daily flare probability depending on McIntosh sunspot classification, its area, and its area change. For this we use the NOAA active region and GOES solar flare data for 15 years (from January 1996 to December 2010). We consider the most flare-productive 10 sunspot classification: 'Dko', 'Dai', 'Eai', 'Fai', 'Dki', 'Dkc', 'Eki', 'Ekc', 'Fki', and 'Fkc'. Sunspot area and its change can be a proxy of magnetic flux and its emergence/cancellation, respectively. we classify each sunspot group into two sub-groups: 'Large' and 'Small'. In addition, for each group, we classify it into three sub-groups according to sunspot group area change: 'Decrease', 'Steady', and 'Increase'. As a result, in the case of compact groups, their flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities noticeably increase with sunspot group area. We also find that the flare occurrence rates and daily flare probabilities for the 'Increase' sub-groups are noticeably higher than those for the other sub-groups. In case of the (M+X)-class flares of 'Dkc' group, the flare occurrence rate of the 'Increase' sub-group is three times higher than that of the 'Steady' sub-group. Mean flare occurrence rates and flare probabilities for all sunspot regions increase with the following order: 'Steady', 'Decrease', and 'Increase'. Our results statistically demonstrate that magnetic flux and its emergence enhance major solar flare occurrence. We are going to forecast solar flares based on these results and NOAA scale.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.34.1-34.1
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• 2010

Solar proton events, whose fluxes are larger than 10 particles cm-2 sec-1 ster-1 for >10 MeV protons, have been observed since 1976. NOAA proton event list from 1997 to 2006 shows that most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. In this study, we carefully identified the sources of these events. For this, we used LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. First, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the CMEs are found to eject from the western hemisphere. Second, we searched a major active region in the front solar disk for several days before the proton events occurred by taking into account two facts: (1) The location of the active region is consistent with the position angle of a given CME and (2) there were several flares in the active region or the active region is the largest among several candidates. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce proton events without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of proton events by considering solar rotation rate, $13.2^{\circ}$ per day. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2009년도 한국우주과학회보 제18권2호
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• pp.37.2-37.2
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• 2009

In this study, we present a new empirical forecasting method of solar proton events based on flare parameters. For this we used NOAA solar energetic particle (SEP) events from 1976 to 2006 and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we found that about only 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{\circ}$ < L < $90W^{\circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{\circ}E$ < L < $90^{\circ}E$. The occurrence probability of solar proton events for flares with long duration (> 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). The relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude. Using these results for prediction of proton flux, we divided the data into 6 subgroups depending on two parameters: (1) 3 longitude ranges (east, center, and west) and (2) flare impulsive times (long and short). For each subgroup, we make a linear regression between the X-ray flare peak flux and the corresponding proton peak flux. The result shows that the proton flux in the eastern region is much better correlated with the X-ray flux than that in the western region.

• 천문학회보
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.81.2-81.2
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• 2016

Many signals in the nature have power-law behaviors, namely they are "scale-free". The method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), as one of the popular methods (e.g., Rescaled range analysis and Spectral analysis) for determining scale-free nature of time series, has a very important advantage that the DFA can be applied to both stationary and non-stationary signals. The analysis of time series using the DFA has been broadly used in physiology, finance, hydrology, meteorology, geology, and so on. We performed the DFA of 16 Spaceweather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) parameters for 38 HMI Active Region Patches (HARPs) obtained by Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) from May 2010 to June 2014. The main results from this study are as follows. (1) The most of the time series data are non-stationary. (2) The DFA scaling exponents of "mean vertical current density" for 38 HARPs have a negative correlation coefficient (-0.41) with flare index. (3) The DFA scaling exponents of parameters such as "Sum of the absolute value of net currents per polarity", "Absolute value of the net current helicity", and "Mean photospheric excess magnetic energy density" for the most active HARPs having more than 10 major flares, have positive correlation coefficients (0.64, 0.59, and 0.53, respectively) with the ratio of "the number of CMEs associated with major flares" to "the number of major flares". Physical interpretations on our results will be discussed.

• 천문학회보
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.82.1-82.1
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• 2017

After a coronal mass ejection occur, plasma blobs are often observed along the post-CME ray. Searching for features related to the plasma blobs would be important in understanding their origin. We investigated the morphology of solar flares at EUV wavelengths, around the estimated times when blobs were formed. We focused on three events - 2013 September 21 and 22, 2015 March 7 and 8, and 2017 July 13 and 14 - observed by Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) aboard Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). Around the blob ejection times on 2013 September 21 and 22 and 2017 July 13 and14, we found regions with recurrent events of pronounced flux increase in EUV images. Around those of 2015 March 7 and 8, however, we could not observe such recurrent flux increase. This illustrates that even though blob ejections along different post-CME rays look similar in the high corona, the assocated features in the low corona may differ. We conclude that magnetic morphology and CME triggering process should be carefully examined in order to classify plasma blobs by their nature.

• 천문학회지
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.61-66
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• 2003

We have examined the relationship between the speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the GOES X-ray peak fluxes of associated flares. Noting that previous studies were possibly affected by projection effects and random association effects, we have considered two sets of carefully selected CME-flare events: four homologous events and four well-observed limb events. In the respective samples, good correlations are found between the CME speeds and the GOES X-ray peak fluxes of the associated flares. A similarly good correlation is found for all eight events of both samples when the CME speeds of the homologous events are corrected for projection effect. Our results suggest that a close relationship possibly exists between CME kinematics and flaring processes.

• 천문학회보
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.18-18
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• 2000