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Studies on Development of Prediction Model of Landslide Hazard and Its Utilization (산지사면(山地斜面)의 붕괴위험도(崩壞危險度) 예측(豫測)모델의 개발(開發) 및 실용화(實用化) 방안(方案))

  • Ma, Ho-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.83 no.2
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    • pp.175-190
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    • 1994
  • In order to get fundamental information for prediction of landslide hazard, both forest and site factors affecting slope stability were investigated in many areas of active landslides. Twelve descriptors were identified and quantified to develop the prediction model by multivariate statistical analysis. The main results obtained could be summarized as follows : The main factors influencing a large scale of landslide were shown in order of precipitation, age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, position of slope, vegetation, stream order, vertical slope, bed rock, soil depth and aspect. According to partial correlation coefficient, it was shown in order of age group of forest trees, precipitation, soil texture, bed rock, slope gradient, position of slope, altitude, vertical slope, stream order, vegetation, soil depth and aspect. The main factors influencing a landslide occurrence were shown in order of age group of forest trees, altitude, soil texture, slope gradient, precipitation, vertical slope, stream order, bed rock and soil depth. Two prediction models were developed by magnitude and frequency of landslide. Particularly, a prediction method by magnitude of landslide was changed the score for the convenience of use. If the total store of the various factors mark over 9.1636, it is evaluated as a very dangerous area. The mean score of landslide and non-landslide group was 0.1977 and -0.1977, and variance was 0.1100 and 0.1250, respectively. The boundary value between the two groups related to slope stability was -0.02, and its predicted rate of discrimination was 73%. In the score range of the degree of landslide hazard based on the boundary value of discrimination, class A was 0.3132 over, class B was 0.3132 to -0.1050, class C was -0.1050 to -0.4196, class D was -0.4195 below. The rank of landslide hazard could be divided into classes A, B, C and D by the boundary value. In the number of slope, class A was 68, class B was 115, class C was 65, and class D was 52. The rate of landslide occurrence in class A and class B was shown at the hige prediction of 83%. Therefore, dangerous areas selected by the prediction method of landslide could be mapped for land-use planning and criterion of disaster district. And also, it could be applied to an administration index for disaster prevention.

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A Study on the Characteristics and Management Plan of Old Big Trees in the Sacred Natural Sites of Handan City, China (중국 한단시 자연성지 내 노거수의 특성과 관리방안)

  • Xi, Su-Ting;Shin, Hyun-Sil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2023
  • First, The spatial distribution characteristics of old big trees were analyzed using ArcGIS figures by combining basic information such as species and ages of old big trees in Handan City, which were compiled by the local bureau of landscaping. The types of species, distribution by ages of trees, ownership status, growth status, and diversity status were comprehensively analyzed. Statistically, Styphnolobium, Acacia, Gleditsia, and Albizia of Fabaceae accounted for the majority, of which Sophora japonica accounted for the highest proportion. Sophora japonica is widely and intensively distributed to each prefecture and district in Handan city. According to the age and distribution, the old big trees over 1000 years old were mainly Sophora japonica, Zelkova serrata, Juniperus chinensis, Morus australis Koidz., Dalbergia hupeana Hance, Ceratonia siliqua L., and Pistacia chinensis, and Platycladus orientalis. Second, as found in each type of old big tree status, various types of old big tree status were investigated, the protection management system, protection management process, and protection management benefits were studied, and the protection of old big tree was closely related to the growth environment. Currently, the main driving force behind the protection of old big trees is the worship of old big trees. By depositing its sacredness to the old big tree and sublimating the natural character that nature gave to the old big tree into a guiding consciousness of social activities, nature's "beauty" and personality's "goodness" are well combined. The protection state of the old big tree is closely related to the degree of interaction with the surrounding environment and the participation of various cultures and subjects. In the process of continuously interacting with the surrounding environment during the long-term growth of old big trees, it seems that a natural sanctuary was formed around old big trees in the process of voluntarily establishing a "natural-cultural-scape" system involving bottom-up and top-down cross-regions, multicultural and multi-subjects. Third, China focused on protecting and recovering old big trees, but the protection management system is poor due to a lack of comprehensive consideration of historical and cultural values, plant diversity significance, and social values of old big trees in the management process. Three indicators of space's regional characteristics, property and protection characteristics, and value characteristics can be found in the evaluation of the natural characteristics of old giant trees, which are highly valuable in terms of traditional consciousness management, resource protection practice, faith system construction, and realization of life community values. A systematic management system should be supported as to whether they can be protected and developed for a long time. Fourth, as the perception of protected areas is not yet mature in China, "natural sanctuary" should be treated as an important research content in the process of establishing a nature reserve system. The form of natural sanctuary management, which focuses on bottom-up community participation, is a strong supplement to the current type of top-down nature reserve management in China. Based on this, the protection of old giant trees should be included in the form of a nature reserve called a natural monument in the nature reserve system. In addition, residents of the area around the nature reserve should be one of the main agents of biodiversity conservation.

Consumer's Negative Brand Rumor Acceptance and Rumor Diffusion (소비자의 부정적 브랜드 루머의 수용과 확산)

  • Lee, Won-jun;Lee, Han-Suk
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.65-96
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    • 2012
  • Brand has received much attention from considerable marketing research. When consumers consume product or services, they are exposed to a lot of brand related stimuli. These contain brand personality, brand experience, brand identity, brand communications and so on. A special kind of new crisis occasionally confronting companies' brand management today is the brand related rumor. An important influence on consumers' purchase decision making is the word-of-mouth spread by other consumers and most decisions are influenced by other's recommendations. In light of this influence, firms have reasonable reason to study and understand consumer-to-consumer communication such as brand rumor. The importance of brand rumor to marketers is increasing as the number of internet user and SNS(social network service) site grows. Due to the development of internet technology, people can spread rumors without the limitation of time, space and place. However relatively few studies have been published in marketing journals and little is known about brand rumors in the marketplace. The study of rumor has a long history in all major social science. But very few studies have dealt with the antecedents and consequences of any kind of brand rumor. Rumor has been generally described as a story or statement in general circulation without proper confirmation or certainty as to fact. And it also can be defined as an unconfirmed proposition, passed along from people to people. Rosnow(1991) claimed that rumors were transmitted because people needed to explain ambiguous and uncertain events and talking about them reduced associated anxiety. Especially negative rumors are believed to have the potential to devastate a company's reputation and relations with customers. From the perspective of marketer, negative rumors are considered harmful and extremely difficult to control in general. It is becoming a threat to a company's sustainability and sometimes leads to negative brand image and loss of customers. Thus there is a growing concern that these negative rumors can damage brands' reputations and lead them to financial disaster too. In this study we aimed to distinguish antecedents of brand rumor transmission and investigate the effects of brand rumor characteristics on rumor spread intention. We also found key components in personal acceptance of brand rumor. In contextualist perspective, we tried to unify the traditional psychological and sociological views. In this unified research approach we defined brand rumor's characteristics based on five major variables that had been found to influence the process of rumor spread intention. The five factors of usefulness, source credibility, message credibility, worry, and vividness, encompass multi level elements of brand rumor. We also selected product involvement as a control variable. To perform the empirical research, imaginary Korean 'Kimch' brand and related contamination rumor was created and proposed. Questionnaires were collected from 178 Korean samples. Data were collected from college students who have been experienced the focal product. College students were regarded as good subjects because they have a tendency to express their opinions in detail. PLS(partial least square) method was adopted to analyze the relations between variables in the equation model. The most widely adopted causal modeling method is LISREL. However it is poorly suited to deal with relatively small data samples and can yield not proper solutions in some cases. PLS has been developed to avoid some of these limitations and provide more reliable results. To test the reliability using SPSS 16 s/w, Cronbach alpha was examined and all the values were appropriate showing alpha values between .802 and .953. Subsequently, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted successfully. And structural equation modeling has been used to analyze the research model using smartPLS(ver. 2.0) s/w. Overall, R2 of adoption of rumor is .476 and R2 of intention of rumor transmission is .218. The overall model showed a satisfactory fit. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. According to the results, the variables of brand rumor characteristic such as source credibility, message credibility, worry, and vividness affect argument strength of rumor. And argument strength of rumor also affects rumor intention. On the other hand, the relationship between perceived usefulness and argument strength of rumor is not significant. The moderating effect of product involvement on the relations between argument strength of rumor and rumor W.O.M intention is not supported neither. Consequently this study suggests some managerial and academic implications. We consider some implications for corporate crisis management planning, PR and brand management. This results show marketers that rumor is a critical factor for managing strong brand assets. Also for researchers, brand rumor should become an important thesis of their interests to understand the relationship between consumer and brand. Recently many brand managers and marketers have focused on the short-term view. They just focused on strengthen the positive brand image. According to this study we suggested that effective brand management requires managing negative brand rumors with a long-term view of marketing decisions.

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