• Title/Summary/Keyword: short term time series

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Behaviour of high strength concrete-filled short steel tubes under sustained loading

  • Younas, Saad;Li, Dongxu;Hamed, Ehab;Uy, Brian
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.159-170
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    • 2021
  • Concrete filled steel tubes (CFSTs) are extensively used in a variety of structures due to their structural and economic advantages over other types of structures. Considerable research has been conducted with regards to their short-term behaviour, and very limited studies have focused on their long-term behaviour. In this study, a series of tests were carried out on high strength squat (short) CFSTs and concrete cylinders under controlled conditions of temperature and humidity to better understand their time dependent behaviour. A number of parameters were investigated including the influence of steel and concrete bond, confinement, level of sustained load and sizes of specimens. The results revealed that creep strains increased by more than 40% if there was no bonding between steel tube and concrete core. As expected, creep and shrinkage of concrete inside a steel tube were significantly less than those developed in exposed concrete. At the end of a creep period of six months, all the specimens were tested to failure to observe the influence of sustained loads on the ultimate strength. It was found that creep does not have a major effect on the strength of short CFSTs in the specific experimental study conducted here, which was less than 2.5%.

Price Forecasting on a Large Scale Data Set using Time Series and Neural Network Models

  • Preetha, KG;Remesh Babu, KR;Sangeetha, U;Thomas, Rinta Susan;Saigopika, Saigopika;Walter, Shalon;Thomas, Swapna
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.3923-3942
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    • 2022
  • Environment, price, regulation, and other factors influence the price of agricultural products, which is a social signal of product supply and demand. The price of many agricultural products fluctuates greatly due to the asymmetry between production and marketing details. Horticultural goods are particularly price sensitive because they cannot be stored for long periods of time. It is very important and helpful to forecast the price of horticultural products which is crucial in designing a cropping plan. The proposed method guides the farmers in agricultural product production and harvesting plans. Farmers can benefit from long-term forecasting since it helps them plan their planting and harvesting schedules. Customers can also profit from daily average price estimates for the short term. This paper study the time series models such as ARIMA, SARIMA, and neural network models such as BPN, LSTM and are used for wheat cost prediction in India. A large scale available data set is collected and tested. The results shows that since ARIMA and SARIMA models are well suited for small-scale, continuous, and periodic data, the BPN and LSTM provide more accurate and faster results for predicting well weekly and monthly trends of price fluctuation.

A Study on the Health Index Based on Degradation Patterns in Time Series Data Using ProphetNet Model (ProphetNet 모델을 활용한 시계열 데이터의 열화 패턴 기반 Health Index 연구)

  • Sun-Ju Won;Yong Soo Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2023
  • The Fourth Industrial Revolution and sensor technology have led to increased utilization of sensor data. In our modern society, data complexity is rising, and the extraction of valuable information has become crucial with the rapid changes in information technology (IT). Recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models have shown remarkable performance in natural language processing (NLP) and time series prediction. Consequently, there is a strong expectation that models excelling in NLP will also excel in time series prediction. However, current research on Transformer models for time series prediction remains limited. Traditional RNN and LSTM models have demonstrated superior performance compared to Transformers in big data analysis. Nevertheless, with continuous advancements in Transformer models, such as GPT-2 (Generative Pre-trained Transformer 2) and ProphetNet, they have gained attention in the field of time series prediction. This study aims to evaluate the classification performance and interval prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) using an advanced Transformer model. The performance of each model will be utilized to establish a health index (HI) for cutting blades, enabling real-time monitoring of machine health. The results are expected to provide valuable insights for machine monitoring, evaluation, and management, confirming the effectiveness of advanced Transformer models in time series analysis when applied in industrial settings.

A Study on Emotion Recognition of Chunk-Based Time Series Speech (청크 기반 시계열 음성의 감정 인식 연구)

  • Hyun-Sam Shin;Jun-Ki Hong;Sung-Chan Hong
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2023
  • Recently, in the field of Speech Emotion Recognition (SER), many studies have been conducted to improve accuracy using voice features and modeling. In addition to modeling studies to improve the accuracy of existing voice emotion recognition, various studies using voice features are being conducted. This paper, voice files are separated by time interval in a time series method, focusing on the fact that voice emotions are related to time flow. After voice file separation, we propose a model for classifying emotions of speech data by extracting speech features Mel, Chroma, zero-crossing rate (ZCR), root mean square (RMS), and mel-frequency cepstrum coefficients (MFCC) and applying them to a recurrent neural network model used for sequential data processing. As proposed method, voice features were extracted from all files using 'librosa' library and applied to neural network models. The experimental method compared and analyzed the performance of models of recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) using the Interactive emotional dyadic motion capture Interactive Emotional Dyadic Motion Capture (IEMOCAP) english dataset.

Can Properly Raised Debts Help Increase the Profits of Industrial Enterprises?

  • Zhang, Cheng;Song, Li-Yuan
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.920-930
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    • 2019
  • To figure out the impact of debt financing on the profits of industrial enterprises, it starts with calculating the first differences against the logarithms of the cost profit ratios and the debt asset ratios of Chinese industrial enterprises during 179 months from 2002 to 2016; next, it runs the cointegration test and afterwards the regression test to analyze the obtained first differences, and still next uses the Simulink software to get the regularity of those changes. It finds out that there is not only a long-term stable relationship between the enterprises' profits and debts, but also a steady time series trend within a short term. The profit rate positively correlates to the debt asset ratio, and profit for the current term positively correlates to the profit for the previous term. It indicates that properly raised debts can help increase the profit rate of the industrial enterprises, and a higher previous profit level can help improve the current profit level.

Real Estate Price Forecasting by Exploiting the Regional Analysis Based on SOM and LSTM (SOM과 LSTM을 활용한 지역기반의 부동산 가격 예측)

  • Shin, Eun Kyung;Kim, Eun Mi;Hong, Tae Ho
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.147-163
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    • 2021
  • Purpose The study aims to predict real estate prices by utilizing regional characteristics. Since real estate has the characteristic of immobility, the characteristics of a region have a great influence on the price of real estate. In addition, real estate prices are closely related to economic development and are a major concern for policy makers and investors. Accurate house price forecasting is necessary to prepare for the impact of house price fluctuations. To improve the performance of our predictive models, we applied LSTM, a widely used deep learning technique for predicting time series data. Design/methodology/approach This study used time series data on real estate prices provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. For time series data preprocessing, HP filters were applied to decompose trends and SOM was used to cluster regions with similar price directions. To build a real estate price prediction model, SVR and LSTM were applied, and the prices of regions classified into similar clusters by SOM were used as input variables. Findings The clustering results showed that the region of the same cluster was geographically close, and it was possible to confirm the characteristics of being classified as the same cluster even if there was a price level and a similar industry group. As a result of predicting real estate prices in 1, 2, and 3 months, LSTM showed better predictive performance than SVR, and LSTM showed better predictive performance in long-term forecasting 3 months later than in 1-month short-term forecasting.

NDVI Noise Interpolation Using Harmonic Analysis (조화 분석을 이용한 식생지수 보정 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Soo-Jae;Han, Kyung-Soo;Pi, Kyoung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.403-410
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    • 2010
  • NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is broadly used as short-term data composite, is an important parameter for climate change and long-term land surface monitoring. Although atmospheric correction is performed, NDVI dramatically appears several low peak noise in the long-term time series. They are related to various contaminated sources, such as cloud masking problem and wet ground condition. This study suggests a simple method through harmonic analysis for reducing NDVI noise using SPOT/VGT NDVI 10-day MVC data. The harmonic analysis method is compared with the polynomial regression method suggested previously. The polynomial regression method overestimates the NDVI values in the time series. The proposed method showed an improvement in NDVI correction of low peak and overestimation.

Condition assessment of stay cables through enhanced time series classification using a deep learning approach

  • Zhang, Zhiming;Yan, Jin;Li, Liangding;Pan, Hong;Dong, Chuanzhi
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.105-116
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    • 2022
  • Stay cables play an essential role in cable-stayed bridges. Severe vibrations and/or harsh environment may result in cable failures. Therefore, an efficient structural health monitoring (SHM) solution for cable damage detection is necessary. This study proposes a data-driven method for immediately detecting cable damage from measured cable forces by recognizing pattern transition from the intact condition when damage occurs. In the proposed method, pattern recognition for cable damage detection is realized by time series classification (TSC) using a deep learning (DL) model, namely, the long short term memory fully convolutional network (LSTM-FCN). First, a TSC classifier is trained and validated using the cable forces (or cable force ratios) collected from intact stay cables, setting the segmented data series as input and the cable (or cable pair) ID as class labels. Subsequently, the classifier is tested using the data collected under possible damaged conditions. Finally, the cable or cable pair corresponding to the least classification accuracy is recommended as the most probable damaged cable or cable pair. A case study using measured cable forces from an in-service cable-stayed bridge shows that the cable with damage can be correctly identified using the proposed DL-TSC method. Compared with existing cable damage detection methods in the literature, the DL-TSC method requires minor data preprocessing and feature engineering and thus enables fast and convenient early detection in real applications.

Time Series Data Analysis and Prediction System Using PCA (주성분 분석 기법을 활용한 시계열 데이터 분석 및 예측 시스템)

  • Jin, Young-Hoon;Ji, Se-Hyun;Han, Kun-Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2021
  • We live in a myriad of data. Various data are created in all situations in which we work, and we discover the meaning of data through big data technology. Many efforts are underway to find meaningful data. This paper introduces an analysis technique that enables humans to make better choices through the trend and prediction of time series data as a principal component analysis technique. Principal component analysis constructs covariance through the input data and presents eigenvectors and eigenvalues that can infer the direction of the data. The proposed method computes a reference axis in a time series data set having a similar directionality. It predicts the directionality of data in the next section through the angle between the directionality of each time series data constituting the data set and the reference axis. In this paper, we compare and verify the accuracy of the proposed algorithm with LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) through cryptocurrency trends. As a result of comparative verification, the proposed method recorded relatively few transactions and high returns(112%) compared to LSTM in data with high volatility. It can mean that the signal was analyzed and predicted relatively accurately, and it is expected that better results can be derived through a more accurate threshold setting.

The Stochastic Hydrological Analysis for the Discharge of River Rhine at Lobith (For River Rhine at Lobith in the Netherlands) (라인강 유량의 추계학적 수문분석에 관한 연구 (네덜란드의 Lobith지점을 중심으로))

  • 최예환
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 1981
  • The aim at this study has the stochastic hydrological analysis for the annual mean discharge and monthly discharge which were observed at Lobith of River Rhine in the Netherlands from 1901 to 1972. After this study was analysed by computer IBM 370 and Hewlett Parkard 9800, the results were as follows; 1.When 72 data was divided into two groups of subsample data as 36 data, they do not have their properties to be non-homogeneous and inconsistent due to F-test and t-test. 2.The credit limits of the serial correlation coefficient was fluctuated $\pm$0. 231 which was shown in Fig. 3. at significant level 99% by Anderson's test. 3.The correlogram at short term was shown to be no short-term persistence as Fig. 3. 4.Since the correlogram at long term has displayed that Hurst's coefficient was 0.6144 between 0.6 and 0.7, it was to be no long-term persistence. 5.The stochastic model with annual discharge of this River Rhine was shown with $\chi$t=2195+483. 8 $\varepsilon$t as $\chi$t=$\mu$+oet and $\varepsilon$t=$_1$ø$\varepsilon$t-$_1$+ζt where t=1,2,3,..., ζt is an independent series with mean zero and variance (1-ø2), $\varepsilon$t is the dependent series, and 4' is the parameter of the model. 6.The serial correlation coefficient of monthly discharge was explained as $\chi$$_1$ = 0.34 . sin(6-$\pi$t+$\pi$) as Fig.4. and the River Rhine has no large fluctuation and smoothly changed during that time.

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