• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권10호
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• pp.3298-3313
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• 2021

The objective of this study is to estimate the occurrence probabilities of severe accident phenomena based on a fuzzy elicitation technique. Normally, it is difficult to determine these probabilities due to the lack of information on severe accident progression and the highly uncertain values currently in use. In this case, fuzzy set theory (FST) can be best exploited. First, questions were devised for expert elicitation on technical issues of severe accident phenomena. To deal with ambiguities and the imprecision of previously developed (reference) probabilities, fuzzy aggregation methods based on FST were employed to derive the occurrence probabilities of severe accidents via four phases: 1) choosing experts, 2) quantifying weighting factors for the experts, 3) aggregating the experts' opinions, and 4) defuzzifying the fuzzy numbers. In this way, this study obtained expert elicitation results in the form of updated occurrence probabilities of severe accident phenomena in the OPR-1000 plant, after which the differences between the reference probabilities and the newly acquired probabilities using fuzzy aggregation were compared, with the advantages of the fuzzy technique over other approaches explained. Lastly, the impact of applying the updated severe accident probabilities on containment integrity was quantitatively investigated in a Level 2 PSA model.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.192-204
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• 2012

For a severe accident of nuclear power plant, an approach to estimation of the radiological source term using a severe accident code(MELCOR) has been proposed. Although the MELCOR code has a capability to estimate the radiological source term, it has been hardly utilized for the radiological consequence analysis mainly due to a lack of understanding on the relevant function employed in MELCOR and severe accident phenomena. In order to estimate the severe accident source term to be linked with the radiological consequence analysis, this study proposes 4-step procedure: (1) selection of plant condition leading to a severe accident(i.e., accident sequence), (2) analysis of the relevant severe accident code, (3) investigation of the code analysis results and post-processing, and (4) generation of radiological source term information for the consequence analysis. The feasibility study of the present approach to an early containment failure sequence caused by a fast station blackout(SBO) of a reference plant (OPR-1000), showed that while the MELCOR code has an integrated capability for severe accident and source term analysis, it has a large degree of uncertainty in quantifying the radiological source term. Key insights obtained from the present study were: (1) key parameters employed in a typical code for the consequence analysis(i.e., MACCS) could be generated by MELCOR code; (2) the MELOCR code simulation for an assessment of the selected accident sequence has a large degree of uncertainty in determining the accident scenario and severe accident phenomena; and (3) the generation of source term information for the consequence analysis relies on an expert opinion in both areas of severe accident analysis and consequence analysis. Nevertheless, the MELCOR code had a great advantage in estimating the radiological source term such as reflection of the current state of art in the area of severe accident and radiological source term.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권2호
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• pp.532-548
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• 2021

Nuclear power plants contain several monitoring systems that can identify the in-vessel phenomena of a severe accident (SA). Though a lot of analysis and research is carried out on SA, right from the development of the nuclear industry, not all the possible circumstances are taken into consideration. Therefore, to improve the efficacy of the safety of nuclear power plants, additional analytical studies are needed that can directly monitor severe accident phenomena. This paper presents an interacting multiple model (IMM) based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) approach for the identification of in-vessel phenomena to provide the accident propagation information using reactor vessel (RV) out-wall temperature distribution during severe accidents in a nuclear power plant. The estimation of wall temperature is treated as a state estimation problem where the time-varying wall temperature is estimated using IMM employing three multiple models for temperature evolution. From the estimated RV out-wall temperature and rate of temperature, the in-vessel phenomena are identified such as core meltdown, corium relocation, reactor vessel damage, reflooding, etc. We tested the proposed method with five different types of SA scenarios and the results show that the proposed method has estimated the outer wall temperature with good accuracy.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권12호
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• pp.4534-4550
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• 2022

Integrated severe accident codes should be capable of simulating not only specific physical phenomena but also entire plant behaviors, and in a sufficiently fast time. However, significant uncertainty may exist owing to the numerous parametric models and interactions among the various phenomena. The primary objectives of this study are to present best-practice uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results regarding the evolutions of severe accidents (SAs) and fission product source terms and to determine the effects of mitigation measures on them, as expected during a short-term station blackout (STSBO) of a reference pressurized water reactor (optimized power reactor (OPR)1000). Three reference scenarios related to the STSBO accident are considered: one base and two mitigation scenarios, and the impacts of dedicated severe accident mitigation (SAM) actions on the results of interest are analyzed (such as flammable gas generation). The uncertainties are quantified based on a random set of Monte Carlo samples per case scenario. The relative importance values of the uncertain input parameters to the results of interest are quantitatively evaluated through a relevant sensitivity/importance analysis.

• International Journal of Safety
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.50-56
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• 2003

There are a lot of uncertainties in the severe accident phenomena and scenarios in nuclear power plants (NPPs) and one of the major issues for severe accident management is the reduction of these uncertainties. The severe accident management aid system using Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSA) technology is developed for the management staff in order to reduce the uncertainties. The developed system includes the graphical display for plant and equipment status, previous research results by a knowledge-base technique, and the expected plant behavior using PSA. The plant model used in this paper is oriented to identify plant response and vulnerabilities via analyzing the quantified results, and to set up a framework for an accident management program based on these analysis results. Therefore the developed system may playa central role of information source for decision-making for severe accident management, and will be used as a training tool for severe accident management.

• 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.90-100
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• 2021

Molten corium-concrete interaction (MCCI) is one of the most important phenomena that can lead to the potential hazard of late containment failure due to basemat penetration during a severe accident. In this study, MCCI analytical models of the CORQUENCH code were prepared through verification calculations of several experiments, which had been performed using concrete types similar to those of the calandria vault floor in CANDU-6 plants. The behaviors of thermal-hydraulic variables related to MCCI phenomena were analyzed under the conditions of dry floor and water flooding during the severe accident stemming from a hypothetic station blackout. Uncertainty analyses on the ablation depth were also carried out. It was estimated that the concrete ablation was not interrupted due to the continuous MCCI process under the dry condition but was terminated within 24 hours under the water flooding condition. It was confirmed that the water flooding as a mitigating action was effective to achieve the quenching and thermal stabilization of the melt discharged from the calandria vessel, showing that the present models are capable of reasonably simulating MCCI phenomena in CANDU-6 plants. This study is expected to provide the technical bases to the accident management strategy during the late-phase severe accidents.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제47권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2015

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, new regulatory requirements were enforced in July 2013 and a backfit was required for all existing nuclear power plants. It is required to take measures to prevent severe accidents and mitigate their radiological consequences. The Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA/R) has been conducting numerical studies and experimental studies on relevant severe accident phenomena and countermeasures. This article highlights fission product (FP) release and hydrogen risk as two major areas. Relevant activities in the S/NRA/R are briefly introduced, as follows: 1. For FP release: Identifying the source terms and leak mechanisms is a key issue from the viewpoint of understanding the progression of accident phenomena and planning effective countermeasures that take into account vulnerabilities of containment under severe accident conditions. To resolve these issues, the activities focus on wet well venting, pool scrubbing, iodine chemistry (in-vessel and ex-vessel), containment failure mode, and treatment of radioactive liquid effluent. 2. For hydrogen risk: because of three incidents of hydrogen explosion in reactor buildings, a comprehensive reinforcement of the hydrogen risk management has been a high priority topic. Therefore, the activities in evaluation methods focus on hydrogen generation, hydrogen distribution, and hydrogen combustion.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.151-162
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• 2010

A severe accident training simulator that can simulate important severe accident phenomena and nuclear plant behaviors is developed. The simulator also provides several interactive control devices, which are helpful to assess results of a particular accident management behavior. A simple and direct dynamic linked library (DLL) data communication method is used for the development of the simulator. Using the DLL method, various control devices were implemented to provide an interactive control function during simulation. Finally, a training model is suggested for accident mitigation training and its performance is verified through application runs.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국원자력학회 1997년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
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• pp.464-470
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• 1997

Severe accident analysis has been performed for the Wolsung nuclear power plants in Korea to investigate severe accident phenomena of CANDU-600 reactors as a part of Level II PSA study. The accident sequence analyzed in this paper is loss of active heat sinks(LOAH) which is caused by loss of off-site power, diesel generators, and DC power. ISAAC (Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Code)computer code developed by KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) was used in this analysis. This paper describes the important thermal-hydraulics and source term behaviors in the primary system and inside containment, and the failure mechanism of calandria vessel and containment. In addition, some insights for accident management program(AMP) are also given.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제38권6호
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• pp.535-550
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• 2006

The objectives of this paper are twofold to summarize the new findings and confirmed results from the Phebus FPT-1 experimental data and to report useful information to MELCOR users regarding the better use of MELCOR. For the core damage behavior, the early stage of a melt progression was predicted well; however, the late phase models, concerned with fuel dissolution, oxide cladding failure, fuel slumping, rubble debris heat up, effects of burn-up fuel, and so on, still showed limitations in MELCOR. For the fission product behavior, the comparison showed unexpected phenomena, various limitations, unresolved issues, and even absence of models. The issues summarized in this study have revealed the main areas where our endeavors need to be intensified in order to improve our understanding of severe accident phenomena. From the analysis of the Phebus FPT-1 test results, not only new core damage features, such as foaming or core expansion, but also possible new fission product release patterns due to effects from a high burn-up fuel have raised alternative challenging phenomena that should be solved in the next severe accident research phase.