• Title/Summary/Keyword: service life prediction

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Development of a Road Hazard Map Considering Meteorological Factors (기상인자를 고려한 도로 위험지도 개발)

  • Kim, Hyung Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2017
  • Recently, weather information is getting closer to our real life, and it is a very important factor especially in the transportation field. Although the damage caused by the abnormal climate changes around the world has been gradually increased and the correlation between the road risk and the possibility of traffic accidents is very high, the domestic research has been performed at the level of basic research. The Purpose of this study is to develop a risk map for the road hazard forecasting service of weather situation by linking real - time weather information and traffic information based on accident analysis data by weather factors. So, we have developed a collection and analysis about related data, processing, applying prediction models in various weather conditions and a method to provide the road hazard map for national highways and provincial roads on a web map. As a result, the road hazard map proposed in this study can be expected to be useful for road managers and users through online and mobile services in the future. In addition, information that can support safe autonomous driving by continuously archiving and providing a risk map database so as to anticipate and preemptively prepare for the risk due to meteorological factors in the autonomous driving vehicle, which is a key factor of the 4th Industrial Revolution, and this map can be expected to be fully utilized.

An Analysis of IT Trends Using Tweet Data (트윗 데이터를 활용한 IT 트렌드 분석)

  • Yi, Jin Baek;Lee, Choong Kwon;Cha, Kyung Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.143-159
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    • 2015
  • Predicting IT trends has been a long and important subject for information systems research. IT trend prediction makes it possible to acknowledge emerging eras of innovation and allocate budgets to prepare against rapidly changing technological trends. Towards the end of each year, various domestic and global organizations predict and announce IT trends for the following year. For example, Gartner Predicts 10 top IT trend during the next year, and these predictions affect IT and industry leaders and organization's basic assumptions about technology and the future of IT, but the accuracy of these reports are difficult to verify. Social media data can be useful tool to verify the accuracy. As social media services have gained in popularity, it is used in a variety of ways, from posting about personal daily life to keeping up to date with news and trends. In the recent years, rates of social media activity in Korea have reached unprecedented levels. Hundreds of millions of users now participate in online social networks and communicate with colleague and friends their opinions and thoughts. In particular, Twitter is currently the major micro blog service, it has an important function named 'tweets' which is to report their current thoughts and actions, comments on news and engage in discussions. For an analysis on IT trends, we chose Tweet data because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading on technology. Previous studies found that the tweet data provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively, these studies also identifies that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. Therefore, this study investigates how frequently the predicted IT trends for the following year announced by public organizations are mentioned on social network services like Twitter. IT trend predictions for 2013, announced near the end of 2012 from two domestic organizations, the National IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA) and the National Information Society Agency (NIA), were used as a basis for this research. The present study analyzes the Twitter data generated from Seoul (Korea) compared with the predictions of the two organizations to analyze the differences. Thus, Twitter data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. To overcome these challenges, we used SAS IRS (Information Retrieval Studio) developed by SAS to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers a framework for crawling, normalizing, analyzing, indexing and searching tweet data. As a result, we have crawled the entire Twitter sphere in Seoul area and obtained 21,589 tweets in 2013 to review how frequently the IT trend topics announced by the two organizations were mentioned by the people in Seoul. The results shows that most IT trend predicted by NIPA and NIA were all frequently mentioned in Twitter except some topics such as 'new types of security threat', 'green IT', 'next generation semiconductor' since these topics non generalized compound words so they can be mentioned in Twitter with other words. To answer whether the IT trend tweets from Korea is related to the following year's IT trends in real world, we compared Twitter's trending topics with those in Nara Market, Korea's online e-Procurement system which is a nationwide web-based procurement system, dealing with whole procurement process of all public organizations in Korea. The correlation analysis show that Tweet frequencies on IT trending topics predicted by NIPA and NIA are significantly correlated with frequencies on IT topics mentioned in project announcements by Nara market in 2012 and 2013. The main contribution of our research can be found in the following aspects: i) the IT topic predictions announced by NIPA and NIA can provide an effective guideline to IT professionals and researchers in Korea who are looking for verified IT topic trends in the following topic, ii) researchers can use Twitter to get some useful ideas to detect and predict dynamic trends of technological and social issues.

A prediction study on the number of emergency patients with ASTHMA according to the concentration of air pollutants (대기오염물질 농도에 따른 천식 응급환자 수 예측 연구)

  • Han Joo Lee;Min Kyu Jee;Cheong Won Kim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2023
  • Due to the development of industry, interest in air pollutants has increased. Air pollutants have affected various fields such as environmental pollution and global warming. Among them, environmental diseases are one of the fields affected by air pollutants. Air pollutants can affect the human body's skin or respiratory tract due to their small molecular size. As a result, various studies on air pollutants and environmental diseases have been conducted. Asthma, part of an environmental disease, can be life-threatening if symptoms worsen and cause asthma attacks, and in the case of adult asthma, it is difficult to cure once it occurs. Factors that worsen asthma include particulate matter and air pollution. Asthma is an increasing prevalence worldwide. In this paper, we study how air pollutants correlate with the number of emergency room admissions in asthma patients and predict the number of future asthma emergency patients using highly correlated air pollutants. Air pollutants used concentrations of five pollutants: sulfur dioxide(SO2), carbon monoxide(CO), ozone(O3), nitrogen dioxide(NO2), and fine dust(PM10), and environmental diseases used data on the number of hospitalizations of asthma patients in the emergency room. Data on the number of emergency patients of air pollutants and asthma were used for a total of 5 years from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017. The model made predictions using two models, Informer and LTSF-Linear, and performance indicators of MAE, MAPE, and RMSE were used to measure the performance of the model. The results were compared by making predictions for both cases including and not including the number of emergency patients. This paper presents air pollutants that improve the model's performance in predicting the number of asthma emergency patients using Informer and LTSF-Linear models.

Improving Usage of the Korea Meteorological Administration's Digital Forecasts in Agriculture: I. Correction for Local Temperature under the Inversion Condition (기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안: I. 기온역전조건의 국지기온 보정)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.76-84
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    • 2013
  • An adequate downscaling of the official forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is a prerequisite to improving the value and utility of agrometeorological information in rural areas, where complex terrain and small farms constitute major features of the landscape. In this study, we suggest a simple correction scheme for scaling down the KMA temperature forecasts from mesoscale (5 km by 5 km) to the local scale (30 m by 30 m) across a rural catchment, especially under temperature inversion conditions. The study area is a rural catchment of $50km^2$ area with complex terrain and located on a southern slope of Mountain Jiri National Park. Temperature forecasts for 0600 LST on 62 days with temperature inversion were selected from the fall 2011-spring 2012 KMA data archive. A geospatial correction scheme which can simulate both cold air drainage and the so-called 'thermal belt' was used to derive the site-specific temperature deviation across the study area at a 30 m by 30 m resolution from the original 5 km by 5 km forecast grids. The observed temperature data at 12 validation sites within the study area showed a substantial reduction in forecast error: from ${\pm}2^{\circ}C$ to ${\pm}1^{\circ}C$ in the mean error range and from $1.9^{\circ}C$ to $1.6^{\circ}C$ in the root mean square error. Improvement was most remarkable at low lying locations showing frequent cold pooling events. Temperature prediction error was less than $2^{\circ}C$ for more than 80% of the observed inversion cases and less than $1^{\circ}C$ for half of the cases. Temperature forecasts corrected by this scheme may accelerate implementation of the freeze and frost early warning service for major fruits growing regions in Korea.