• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.432-438
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• 2011

The purpose of the present thesis is to develop bankruptcy prediction models capable of being applied to the Korean construction industry and to deduce an optimal model through comparative evaluation of final developed models. A study population was selected as general contractors in the Korean construction industry. In order to ease the sample securing and reliability of data, it was limited to general contractors receiving external audit from the government. The study samples are divided into a bankrupt company group and a non-bankrupt company group. The bankruptcy, insolvency, declaration of insolvency, workout and corporate reorganization were used as selection criteria of a bankrupt company. A company that is not included in the selection criteria of the bankrupt company group was selected as a non-bankrupt company. Accordingly, the study sample is composed of a total of 112 samples and is composed of 48 bankrupt companies and 64 non-bankrupt companies. A financial ratio was used as early predictors for development of an estimation model. A total of 90 financial ratios were used and were divided into growth, profitability, productivity and added value. The MDA (Multivariate Discriminant Analysis) model and BLRA (Binary Logistic Regression Analysis) model were used for development of bankruptcy prediction models. The MDA model is an analysis method often used in the past bankruptcy prediction literature, and the BLRA is an analysis method capable of avoiding equal variance assumption. The stepwise (MDA) and forward stepwise method (BLRA) were used for selection of predictor variables in case of model construction. Twenty two variables were finally used in MDA and BLRA models according to timing of bankruptcy. The ROC-Curve Analysis and Classification Analysis were used for analysis of prediction performance of estimation models. The correct classification rate of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows: 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 83.04%, BLRA: 93.75%); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 77.68%, BLRA: 78.57%); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 84.82%, BLRA: 91.96%). The AUC (Area Under Curve) of an individual bankruptcy prediction model is as follows. : 1) one year ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.933, BLRA: 0.978); 2) two years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.852, BLRA: 0.875); 3) 3 years ago before the event of bankruptcy (MDA: 0.938, BLRA: 0.975). As a result of the present research, accuracy of the BLRA model is higher than the MDA model and its prediction performance is improved.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.86-94
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• 2004

This study was conducted to mesh selectivity of Beam trawl for shrimps fishing experiment in the coastal waters around Geomundo, South sea of Korea, during from Oct. to Nov. 2002. The selectivity parameters of big head shrimp (Solenocera melantho) have been studied on the covered con-end method. with mesh of 8, 38, 51 and 61 mm. Selection curves and selection parameters were calculated by using a logistic function S=1/(1+exp-(aCL+b)). The mesh selection master curves were estimated by S=1/(1+exp$^{({\alpha}(CL/M)+{\beta}}$), and the optimum mesh size were calculated with (L/M)50 of master curve. Optimum mesh size and selectivity master curves for the southern rough shrimp (Yrachysalambria curvirostris) and smoothshell shrimp (Parapenaeopsis tenella) optimum mesh size and selectivity master curves were estimated by big head shrimp master curves. The results obtained are summarized as follows : Selection parameters '${\alpha}$' and '${\beta}$' of the master curve for big head shrimp were 8.84 and -5.89, and The selection factor of the master curve (L/M)$_{50}$ was 0.67. The optimum mesh size of minimum length for sexual maturity for big head shrimp was 30.7 mm. Estimated (L/M)$_{50}$ for southern rough shrimp and smoothshell shrimp by using the master curve of big head shrimp was 0.73 and the optimum mesh sizes were 25.5 mm for southern rough shrimp and 16.9 mm for smoothshell shrimp, respectively.

• Archives of Reconstructive Microsurgery
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.68-79
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• 2010

Lower abdominal tissue is regarded as an ideal donor site for the breast reconstruction because it provides large skin territory and huge amount of soft tissues enough to the breast size. However it is not easy for the surgeon to reconstruct the really natural breast, and needs the learning curve with long time experience. Author represent the various reconstruction procedures for the breast using lower abdominal tissue such as muscle sparing free TRAM, DIEP, and SIEA free flaps to reinsure like breast. Indications, and selection of reconstructive methods, surgical timing, selection of donor sites and recipient vessel of these flaps were reviewed. In addition, detailed procedures, surgical tips and secondary adjuvant procedures are described for more symmetry of reconstructed breast. The muscle sparing free TRAM, DIEP, and SIEA free flaps would be enough to provide supple, huge amount of well vascularized tissue for the breast, if these flaps were selected for the appropriate indication according to patient's general condition, obesity, the opposite breast and abdominal tissue condition. Lower abdominal tissue was able to provide versatile designs with sufficient adipose tissue without compromising the integrity of abdominal wall.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.120-134
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• 1991

Various technological forecasting models have been proposed to represent the time pattern of technological growths. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels, in predicting future levels of growth. Criteria for selecting an appropriate model for technological growth model are examined in this study. Two major characteristics were selected which differentiate the various models ; the skew of the curve and the underlying assumptions regarding the variance of the error structure of the model. Although the use of statistical techniques stil requires some subjective input and interpretations, this study provides some practical procedures in the selection of technological growth models and helps to reduce or control the potential source of judgmental error inconsistencies in the analyst's decision.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.24 no.2 s.191
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• pp.118-126
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• 2007

Most of materials receive forces in use so that the characteristics of materials must be considered in system design to prevent deformation or destruction. Mechanical properties of materials can be expressed as responsible level of material itself under the exterior operation. Main mechanical properties are strength, hardness, ductility and stiffness. Currently, among major measure facilities to measure the mechanical properties, advanced indentation technique has important use in industrial areas due to nondestructive and easy applications for mechanical tensile properties and evaluation of residual stress of materials. This study is to find the optimum experimental condition about residual stress advanced indentation technique for accurate analysis of the welded joint of steel materials through indentation load-depth curve obtained from cruciform specimen experiment. Optimum selection was applied to the welded joint of real steel materials to find out non-equi-biaxial stress state and the results were compared with general residual stress analyzing method fur verification.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.180-185
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• 2010

We have to develop more correct and systematic way to choose Hazardous Highway Segments. In this research, we applied CRP(Continuous Risk Profile) technique which developed by UC Berkeley Traffic Safety Center in year of 2007, and can analyze yearly dangerous level tendency of continuity in the route of main road that is under California Department of Transportation(Caltrans). We changed standard of CRP to suit in Korean circumstance with consideration in radius of curve and traffic volume. For the verification by actual accident data, we embodiment the CRP by using the data from total of 587 case of accident in latest 10 years in Gyeong-Bu Highways, the amount of 56km. Finally, the effectiveness of technique in this research has been verified by obtained same result with current method for Hazardous Highway Segments. In addition, when calculating the Hazardous Highway Segments with technique that presented in this research we obtained following statements. First, identified dangerous level of continuity in the route by using CRP. Second, Accurate of Actual Hazardous Highway Segments selection has been developed by using last 10 year's data and profile making which provide simplicity analyze of Tendency. Third, after reforming the way of selection, effective range has been wider than former selection and it gives advantage for the policy side.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.285-294
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• 2024

Seismic fragility curves present the conditional probability of damage to target structures due to external seismic load and are widely used in various ways. When constructing such a seismic fragility curve, it is essential to consider various types and numbers of ground motions. In general, the earthquake occurrence characteristics of an area where the target structure of the seismic fragility curve exists are analyzed, and based on this, appropriate ground motions are selected to derive the seismic fragility curve. If the number of selected ground motions is large, the diversity of ground motions is considered, but a large amount of computational time is required. Conversely, if the number of ground motions is too small, the diversity of ground motions cannot be considered, which may distort the seismic fragility curve. Therefore, this study analyzed the relationship between the number of ground motions considered when deriving the seismic fragility curve and the parameters of the seismic fragility curve. Using two example structures, numerical analysis was performed by selecting a random number of ground motions from a total of two hundred, and a seismic fragility curve was derived based on the results. Analysis of the relationship of the parameter of the seismic fragility curve and the number of selected ground motions was performed. As the number of ground motions considered increases, uncertainty in ground motion selection decreases, and when deriving seismic fragility curves considering the same number of ground motions, uncertainty increases relatively as the degree of freedom of the target structure increases. However, considering a relatively large number of ground motions, uncertainty appeared insignificant regardless of increased degrees of freedom. Finally, it is possible that the increase in the number of ground motions could lower the epistemic uncertainty and thus improve the reliability of the results.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.371-379
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• 1992

In order to analyse the mesh selectivity for the trawl net, the fishing experiment was carried out by the training ship Saebada in the southern Korea Sea and the East China Sea from June 1991 to August 1992. The trawl net used in experiment has the trouser type of cod-end with cover net, and the mesh selectivity was examined for the five kinds of the opening mesh size in its cod-end part. The selection curves and the selection parameters were calculated by using a logistic function, S=1/(1+exp super(-(aL+b))), and in this case, a and b are the selection parameters and L is the body length of the target species of fishes. In this report, the four species of aquatic animals were analysed because the catch data were enough to calculate normally the selection curves and the selection parameters, and the results obtained are summarized as follows: 1. Trachurus japonicus; Selection parameters a and b in each cases of the opening mesh size of 51.2mm, 70.2mm, 77.6mm, 88.0mm and 111.3mm were respectively 0.5050 and -5.4283, 0.3018 and -4.9590, 0.3816 and -7.3659, 0.2695 and -5.7958, 0.2170 and -5.1226. 2. Photololigo edulis ; Selection Parameters a and b in each cases of the former mesh sizes were respectively 0.7394 and -6.1433, 0.3389 and -4.2366, 0.3286 and -5.1002, 0.2543 and -5.0049, 0.1795 and -4.8040. 3. Trichirus lepturus; Selection curves in the opening mesh size of 111.3mm was calculated unnormally. The selection parameters in the other opening mesh sizes were respectively 0.3790 and -5.2891, 0.2071 and -4.9164, 0.1292 and -3.1733, 0.1153 and -3.8497 in the order of former mesh sizes except 111.3mm. 4. Todarodes pacificus ; Selection curve in case of the opening mesh sizes, 70.2mm and 111.3mm were calculated unnormally. In the order cases of the opening mesh sizes, the selection parameters were respectively were 0.5766 and -6.0169, 0.3735 and -5.4633, 0.2771 and -5.7718 in the order of former mesh sizes except 70.2mm and 111.3mm.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.17-27
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• 2011

A selection experiment for reduced residual feed intake (RFI) in Yorkshire pigs consisted of a line selected for lower RFI (LRFI) and a random control line (CTRL). Longitudinal measurements of daily feed intake (DFI) and body weight (BW) from generation 5 of this experiment were used. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the use of random regression (RR) and nonlinear mixed models to predict DFI and BW for individual pigs, accounting for the substantial missing information that characterizes these data, and to evaluate the effect of selection for RFI on BW and DFI curves. Forty RR models with different-order polynomials of age as fixed and random effects, and with homogeneous or heterogeneous residual variance by month of age, were fitted for both DFI and BW. Based on predicted residual sum of squares (PRESS) and residual diagnostics, the quadratic polynomial RR model was identified to be best, but with heterogeneous residual variance for DFI and homogeneous residual variance for BW. Compared to the simple quadratic and linear regression models for individual pigs, these RR models decreased PRESS by 1% and 2% for DFI and by 42% and 36% for BW on boars and gilts, respectively. Given the same number of random effects as the polynomial RR models, i.e., two for BW and one for DFI, the non-linear Gompertz model predicted better than the polynomial RR models but not as good as higher order polynomial RR models. After five generations of selection for reduced RFI, the LRFI line had a lower population curve for DFI and BW than the CTRL line, especially towards the end of the growth period.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.501-509
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• 2011

In this paper, we offer a new strategic Portfolio Model for national IT R&D project selection in Korea. A risk and return (R-R) Portfolio Model was developed using an objectively quantified index on the two axes of risk and return, in order to select a strategic project and allocate resources in compliance with a national IT R&D strategy. We strategize using the R-R Portfolio Model to solve the non-strategy and subjectivity problems of the existing national R&D project selection Model. We also use the quantified evaluation index of the IT technology road map (TRM) and the technology level Survey (TLS) for the subjectivity of project selection, and try to discover the weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In addition, we intend to maximize the chance for a successful national IT R&D project, by selecting a strategic Portfolio project and balancing the allocation of resources effectively and objectively.