• 제목/요약/키워드: root-mean-square error

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국내 주요도시의 일조시간데이터를 이용한 시간당전일사량 산출 및 분석 (Analysis and Calculation of Global Hourly Solar Irradiation Based on Sunshine Duration for Major Cities in Korea)

  • 이관호;심광열
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.16-21
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    • 2010
  • Computer simulation of buildings and solar energy systems are being used increasingly in energy assessments and design. This paper discusses the possibility of using sunshine duration data instead of global hourly solar irradiation (GHSI) data for localities with abundant data on sunshine duration. For six locations in South Korea where global radiation is currently measured, the global radiation was calculated using Sunshine Duration Radiation Model (SDRM), compared and analyzed. Results of SDRM has been compared with the measured data on the coefficients of determination (R2), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE). This study recommends the use of sunshine duration based irradiation models if measured solar radiation data is not available.

기상 요인을 고려한 일일 COVID-19 확진자 예측 (Prediction of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Consideration of Meteorological Factors)

  • 추경수;정담;이소현;김병식
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.68-68
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    • 2022
  • 코로나바이러스는(COVID-19)는 2019년 12일 중국 후베이성 우한시에서 시작된 코로나바이러스감염증으로 2020년 1월부터 전 세계로 퍼져, 일부 국가 및 지역을 제외한 대부분의 나라와 모든 대륙으로 확산되었다. 이에 WHO는 범 유행전염병(Pandemic)을 선언하였다. 2022년 3월 18일 현재 국내 누적 확진환자 8,657,609명과 11,782명의 사망자를 일으켰고 전 세계적으로도 많은 사상자를 내고 있는 실정이고 사회 및 경제적인 피해로도 계속 확대되고 있다. 많은 감염자와 사망자의수에 대한 예측은 코로나바이러스의 전염병을 예방하고 즉각적 조치를 취할 수 있는데 도움이 될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 문화적 인자를 제외한 국내에서 연구 사례가 많지 않은 기상 요인을 인자로 포함하여 머신러닝 모델을 통해 확진자를 예측하였다. 그리고 여러 가지 모델을 성능 평가 기법인 Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) 및 Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)를 통해 성능을 평가하고 비교하여 정확도 높은 모델을 제시하였다.

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A Study on the Lifetime Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on the Long Short-Term Memory Model of Recurrent Neural Networks

  • Sang-Bum Kim
    • International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.236-241
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    • 2024
  • Due to the recent emphasis on carbon neutrality and environmental regulations, the global electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing rapid growth. This surge has raised concerns about the recycling and disposal methods for EV batteries. Unlike traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, EVs require unique and safe methods for the recovery and disposal of their batteries. In this process, predicting the lifespan of the battery is essential. Impedance and State of Charge (SOC) analysis are commonly used methods for this purpose. However, predicting the lifespan of batteries with complex chemical characteristics through electrical measurements presents significant challenges. To enhance the accuracy and precision of existing measurement methods, this paper proposes using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, a type of deep learning-based recurrent neural network, to diagnose battery performance. The goal is to achieve safe classification through this model. The designed structure was evaluated, yielding results with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.8451, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.3448, and an accuracy of 0.984, demonstrating excellent performance.

영산강.섬진강 유역을 대상으로 한 논 오염부하 산정 단순회귀모형 적용 (Application of Simple Regression Models for Pollutants Load Estimation of Paddy to Yeongsan and Seomjin River Watersheds)

  • 최우정;곽진협;정재운;윤광식;장남익;허유정
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제49권1호
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2007
  • Simple regression models for pollutants load estimation of paddy developed by the Ministry of Environment in 1995 were tested with the data (T-N, T-P, $COD_{Mn}$, and SS) collected from Yeongsan and Seomjin river watersheds, and improvement measures were suggested. Overall, the simulated values showed a great difference from the measured values except for T-P according to the statistical analyses (RMSE, root mean square error; RMAE, root mean absolute error; RB, relative bias; EI, efficiency index). Such difference was assumed due to the fact that the models use only hydrologic factors (quantity factor) associated with precipitation and run-off as input parameters, but do not consider other factors which are likely to affect pollutant concentration (quality factor) including days after fertilization. In addition, in terms of accessibility of the models, some parameters in the models such as run-off depth and run-off amount which can not be obtained from the weather database but should be collected by on-site measurements need to be replaced with other variables.

물리·화학적 처리공정을 이용한 Artemia sp. 불활성화 예측을 위한 소독 모델 (Disinfection Models to Predict Inactivation of Artemia sp. via Physicochemical Treatment Processes)

  • 정창;김동석;박영식
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.421-432
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we examined the suitability of ten disinfection models for predicting the inactivation of Artemia sp. via single or combined physical and chemical treatments. The effect of Hydraulic Retention Time (HRT) on the inactivation of Artemia sp. was examined experimentally. Disinfection models were fitted to the experimental data by using the GInaFiT plug-in for Microsoft Excel. The inactivation model were evaluated on the basis of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), SSE (mean Sum Square Error) and $r^2$. An inactivation model with the lowest RMSE, SSE and $r^2$ close to 1 was considered the best. The Weibull+Tail model was found to be the most appropriate for predicting the inactivation of Artemia sp. via electrolytic treatment and electrolytic-ultrasonic combined treatment. The Log-linear+Tail model was the most appropriate for modeling inactivation via homogenization and combined electrolytic-homogenization treatment. The double Weibull disinfection model was the most suitable for the predicting inactivation via ultrasonic treatment.

Prediction of fly ash concrete compressive strengths using soft computing techniques

  • Ramachandra, Rajeshwari;Mandal, Sukomal
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2020
  • The use of fly ash in modern-day concrete technology aiming sustainable constructions is on rapid rise. Fly ash, a spinoff from coal calcined thermal power plants with pozzolanic properties is used for cement replacement in concrete. Fly ash concrete is cost effective, which modifies and improves the fresh and hardened properties of concrete and additionally addresses the disposal and storage issues of fly ash. Soft computing techniques have gained attention in the civil engineering field which addresses the drawbacks of classical experimental and computational methods of determining the concrete compressive strength with varying percentages of fly ash. In this study, models based on soft computing techniques employed for the prediction of the compressive strengths of fly ash concrete are collected from literature. They are classified in a categorical way of concrete strengths such as control concrete, high strength concrete, high performance concrete, self-compacting concrete, and other concretes pertaining to the soft computing techniques usage. The performance of models in terms of statistical measures such as mean square error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, etc. has shown that soft computing techniques have potential applications for predicting the fly ash concrete compressive strengths.

A Mathematical Model for Color Changes in Red Pepper during Far Infrared Drying

  • Ning, XiaoFeng;Han, ChungSu;Li, He
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제37권5호
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    • pp.327-334
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: The color changes in red pepper during far infrared drying were studied in order to establish a color change model. Methods: The far infrared drying experiments of red pepper were conducted at two temperature levels of 60, $70^{\circ}C$ and two air velocity levels of 0.6 and 0.8 m/s. The results were compared with the hot-air drying method. The surface color changes parameters of red pepper were measured qualitatively based on L (lightness), a (redness), b (yellowness) and total color changes (${\Delta}E$). The goodness of fit of model was estimated using the coefficient of determination ($R^2$), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean relative percent error (P) and the reduced chi-square (${\chi}^2$). Results: The results show that an increase in drying temperature and air velocity resulted in a decrease in drying time, the values of L (lightness) and a (redness) decreased with drying time during far infrared drying. The developed model showed higher $R^2$ values and lower RMSE, P and ${\chi}^2$ values. Conclusions: The model in this study could be beneficial to describe the color changes of red pepper by far infrared drying.

Damage level prediction of non-reshaped berm breakwater using ANN, SVM and ANFIS models

  • Mandal, Sukomal;Rao, Subba;N., Harish;Lokesha, Lokesha
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.112-122
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    • 2012
  • The damage analysis of coastal structure is very important as it involves many design parameters to be considered for the better and safe design of structure. In the present study experimental data for non-reshaped berm breakwater are collected from Marine Structures Laboratory, Department of Applied Mechanics and Hydraulics, NITK, Surathkal, India. Soft computing techniques like Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference system (ANFIS) models are constructed using experimental data sets to predict the damage level of non-reshaped berm breakwater. The experimental data are used to train ANN, SVM and ANFIS models and results are determined in terms of statistical measures like mean square error, root mean square error, correla-tion coefficient and scatter index. The result shows that soft computing techniques i.e., ANN, SVM and ANFIS can be efficient tools in predicting damage levels of non reshaped berm breakwater.

건설투자(建設投資)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型) 비교(比較) (Short-term Construction Investment Forecasting Model in Korea)

  • 김관영;이창수
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 1992
  • 본고(本稿)에서는 현재의 경제상황을 잘 반영하는 건설투자활동(建設投資活動)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型)을 정립하고자 먼저 관련 시계열자료의 안정성(安定性) 여부(與否)와 순환성(循環性), 계절성(季節性)의 특성을 살펴본 후 여러 단기모형의 예측력(豫測力), 정합성(整合性), 설명력(說明力)을 비교 검토했다. 단위근(單位根) 검정(檢定)과 자기상관계수(自己相關係數) 스펙트랄 밀도함수 분석의 결과, 건설관련 시계열자료들이 대체로 단위근(單位根)을 갖지 않음으로써 안정적이고 주기적인 순환변동을 하고 있으며, 시차변수의 설명력이 높은 특성을 나타내었다. 또한 건설투자자료의 특성이 선행지표(先行指標)인 건축허가연면적(建築許可延面積) 및 건설수주액(建設受注額)과 아주 유사하여 건설투자 단기예측에 있어서 두 지표 사이의 시차관계(時差關係) 파악이 중요함을 알 수 있었다. 제(第)III장(章)에서는 단변량(單變量) 시계열모형(時系列模型)으로 ARIMA모형(模型)과 승법선형추세예측모형(乘法線型趨勢豫測模型)을, 다변량(多變量) 시계열모형(時系列模型)으로는 첫째, 선행지표(先行指標)를 이용한 1차자기회귀모형(次自己回歸模型), VAR모형(模型), 둘째 GNP자료를 이용한 거시경제모형의 단순한 축약형모형(縮約型模型)과 VAR모형(模型)을 제시하고 이들을 비교 평가하였다. 이에 따르면 단변량 시계열모형보다는 다변량 시계열모형이 시간이 경과할수록 예측오차(豫測誤差)가 커지지 않는다는 점에서 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 다변량모형 중에서도 벡터자기회귀모형이 여타 모형보다 절대예측오차평균(絶對豫測誤差平均), 평균자승근(平均自乘根) 퍼센트 오차(誤差), 결정계수(決定係數) 등 모든 면에서 우수한 것으로 평가되었다. 이는 최근 건설투자가 추세에서 벗어난 급증세를 지속하고 있음을 고려할 때 타당한 결론이라 생각된다.

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New approach to calculate Weibull parameters and comparison of wind potential of five cities of Pakistan

  • Ahmed Ali Rajput;Muhammad Daniyal;Muhammad Mustaqeem Zahid;Hasan Nafees;Misha Shafi;Zaheer Uddin
    • Advances in Energy Research
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2022
  • Wind energy can be utilized for the generation of electricity, due to significant wind potential at different parts of the world, some countries have already been generating of electricity through wind. Pakistan is still well behind and has not yet made any appreciable effort for the same. The objective of this work was to add some new strategies to calculate Weibull parameters and assess wind energy potential. A new approach calculates Weibull parameters; we also developed an alternate formula to calculate shape parameters instead of the gamma function. We obtained k (shape parameter) and c (scale parameter) for two-parameter Weibull distribution using five statistical methods for five different cities in Pakistan. Maximum likelihood method, Modified Maximum likelihood Method, Method of Moment, Energy Pattern Method, Empirical Method, and have been to calculate and differentiate the values of (shape parameter) k and (scale parameter) c. The performance of these five methods is estimated using the Goodness-of-Fit Test, including root mean square error, mean absolute bias error, mean absolute percentage error, and chi-square error. The daily 10-minute average values of wind speed data (obtained from energydata.info) of different cities of Pakistan for the year 2016 are used to estimate the Weibull parameters. The study finds that Hyderabad city has the largest wind potential than Karachi, Quetta, Lahore, and Peshawar. Hyderabad and Karachi are two possible sites where wind turbines can produce reasonable electricity.