• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk modelling

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Application of Integrated Modelling Framework Consisted of Delft3D and HABITAT for Habitat Suitability Assessment (생물서식지 적합성 평가를 위한 Delft3D와 HABITAT 모델의 연계 적용)

  • Lim, Hyejung;Na, Eun Hye;Jeon, Hyeong Cheol;Song, Hojin;Yoo, Hojun;Hwang, Soon Hong;Ryu, Hui-Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.217-228
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    • 2021
  • This paper discusses a methodology where an integrated modelling framework is used to quantify the risk derived from anthropic activities on habitats and species. To achieve this purpose, a tool comprising the Delft3D and HABITAT model, was applied in the Yeongsan river. Delft3D effectively simulated the operational condition and flow of weirs in river. In accuracy evaluation of the Delft3D-FLOW, the Bias, Pbias, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Index of Agreement (IOA) were used, and the result was evaluated as grade above 'Satisfactory'. The HABITAT calculated Habitat Suitability Value (HSV) for the following eight species: mammal, fish, aquatic plant, and benthic macroinvertebrate. An Area was defined as a suitable habitat if the HSV was larger than 0.5. HABITAT was judged accurately by measuring the Correct Classification rate (CCR) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For benthic macroinvertebrate, the CCR and AUC were 77% and 0.834, respectively, at thresholds of 0.017 and 4 inds/m2 for HSV and individuals per unit area. This meant that the HABITAT model accurately predicted the appearance of the benthic macroinvertebrates by approximately 77% and that the probability of false alarms was also very low. As a result of evaluating the suitability of habitats, in the Yeongsan river, if the annual "lowest level" (Seungchon weir: 2.5 EL.m/ Juksan weir: -1.35 EL.m) was maintained, the average habitat improvement effect of 6.5%P compared to the 'reference' scenario was predicted. Consequently, it was demonstrated that the integrated modelling framework for habitat suitability assessment is able to support the remedy aquatic ecological management.

Analysis of Multivariate-GARCH via DCC Modelling (DCC 모델링을 이용한 다변량-GARCH 모형의 분석 및 응용)

  • Choi, S.M.;Hong, S.Y.;Choi, M.S.;Park, J.A.;Baek, J.S.;Hwang, S.Y.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.995-1005
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    • 2009
  • Conditional correlation between financial time series plays an important role in risk management, asset allocation and portfolio selection and therefore diverse efforts for modeling conditional correlations in multivariate-GARCH processes have been made in last two decades. In particular, CCC (cf. Bollerslev, 1990) and DCC(dynamic conditional correlation, cf. Engle, 2002) models have been commonly used since they are relatively parsimonious in the number of parameters involved. This article is concerned with DCC modeling for multivariate GARCH processes in comparison with CCC specification. Various multivariate financial time series are analysed to illustrate possible advantages of DCC over CCC modeling.

A Study on the Work-related Low Back Pain of Workers at a Refractories Manufacturing Factory (모 연와제조 공장 근로자의 작업과 관련된 요통 및 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Cheong, Hoe Kyeong;Lim, Hyun Sul;Kim, Ji Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.289-297
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    • 1997
  • Work-related low back pain(below LBP) is one of the major cause of morbidity, disability, limitation of activity and economic loss. Therefore the work-related LBP is one of the major issue in the field of industrial safety and health. This study was performed for detecting the risk factors and proposing the effective control programs of work-related LBP. The subjects were male workers employed at the welding and metal factory. The data was collected by self-reported questionnaire, interview and checking abdomen muscular and grasping power for two days on October, 1993. The contents of questionnaire were as follow: the experience of LBP, general characteristics, physical characteristics, employment status, type of work and working environment. The number of cases was 104 with a history of work-related LBP, so the prevalence of work-related LBP was 35.0%, and the number of controls was 140 without any history of LBP. As a result, marital status, educational level, abdomen muscular power, tenure, category of job, satisfaction of job, working posture, satisfaction for table and chair and lifting materials showed a statistical significance between the case and control groups. 284 Lifting jobs were quantified by NIOSH lifting equation method and ergonomic computer modelling methods. There were no significant differences in the action limit and disc compression force between group with LBP and without LBP. But in the lifting frequency and cumulative disc compression force there were significant differences. Therefore work-related LBP should be prevented by the ergonomic and environmental control.

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The Effect of the Government's Entrepreneurial Support Policy on Entrepreneurship and Entrepreneurial Intention (정부의 창업지원정책이 창업가의 기업가정신 및 창업의지에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Nam-Gue;Kim, Myung-Sook;Ko, Jong-Wook
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of the Government's entrepreneurial support policy(educational support, financial support and marketing support) on entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial intention. This study examined educational support, fund support and marketing support as the The Government's entrepreneurial support polity variables and innovativeness, progressiveness and risk-taking as entrepreneurship variables. The sample of this study was composed of 331 existing and potential entrepreneurs selected from the national panel of a online web survey research firm. Data were collected using self-administerd structured questionnaires and analyzed employing structural equation modelling techniques. This study found that three entrepreneurship variables(innovativeness, progressiveness and risk-taking) had positive direct effects on entrepreneurial intention and that three Government's entrepreneurial support policy variables (educational support, financial support and marketing support) had positive direct effects on entrepreneurship, whereas these three variables had positive indirect effects on entrepreneurial intention. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings were discussed and the directions for future research were suggested.

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APPLICATION OF FIRE RESEARCH TO BUILDING FIRE SAFETY DESIGN - CURRENT BENEFITS AND FUTURE NEEDS

  • Bressington, Peter;Johnson, Peter
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 1997.11a
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    • pp.392-403
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    • 1997
  • There is a strong international move towards performance based fire regulations for buildings with New Zealand and Australia at the forefront of research in this fold. The reform of regulations is thought to offer more innovation and flexibility in building design and greater cost effectiveness in construction. An important part of the research in this area is related to the development of agreed approaches to fire safety design, such as the Fire Code Reform Centre's "Fire Engineering Guidelines" or New Zealand's "Fire Engineering Design Guide". Such design process documents have incorporated or referenced much of the latest research in areas such as: tenability criteria fire compartment models egress models risk assessment. Use of such design guidelines or equivalents in major projects in countries such as Hong Kong and Australia have highlighted where fro engineering can offer real benefits to building designers and ultimately building owners and operators. However, there is still much research to be done and use of a systematic, logical design approach clearly identifies where design data or modelling techniques are still urgently required. Such areas are: fire growth rates and peak heat release rates for non-residential occupancies pre-movement times related to egress experimental validation and limits of applicability of CFD and other compartment Ire models probability/reliability data on fire protection systems for risk based analysis. Examples from case studies will be shown where lack of such research and poor judgement can lead to inferior design solutions or where unnecessarily conservative designs can lead to cost excesses. In summary, the link between Ire engineering designers and the research community is very important to highlight areas of fire research that will have the most benefit to the building and construction industry.nstruction industry.

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The Effect of Empathy on Anxiety and Depression in COVID-19 Disaster : through Risk Perception and Indirect Trauma (코로나19 재난 상황에서 공감이 불안과 우울에 미치는 영향 : 위험지각과 간접외상을 통하여)

  • Han, Jeong-Soo;Choi, Ju-Hee;Lee, Sang-Ok;Kim, Yoo-Ri;Kim, Sung-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.609-625
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    • 2021
  • It has now been more than a year since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea, which has claimed thousands of lives and changed every aspect of life. The corona pandemic not only caused physical damages but also psychological one which is a collective social stress phenomenon often termed as 'corona blue'. The purpose of this study is to examine how empathy affects anxiety and depression through risk perception and indirect trauma, which are psychological variables related to the corona pandemic as a disaster. The survey data from 214 people were analyzed with a structural equation modelling. The results shows that 53.3 % of the participants experienced anxiety and 35.7% suffered from depression, which were about 6 times higher than ones from the 2019 government data. Affective empathy had a significant effect on risk perception, and cognitive empathy had a significant effect on indirect trauma. Risk perception and indirect trauma both had a significant effect on anxiety, and anxiety had a significant impact on depression. Only cognitive empathy had a significant indirect effect on anxiety and depression. This study provides an important insight into understanding a social phenomenon of 'corona blue' from a empathic perspective.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment for High Level Nuclear Waste Repository System

  • Kim, Taw-Woon;Woo, Kab-Koo;Lee, Kun-Jai
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.53-72
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    • 1991
  • An integrated model is developed in this paper for the performance assessment of high level radioactive waste repository. This integrated model consists of two simple mathematical models. One is a multiple-barrier failure model of the repository system based on constant failure rates which provides source terms to biosphere. The other is a biosphere model which has multiple pathways for radionuclides to reach to human. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the risk assessment of high level radioactive waste repository, Latin hypercube sampling and rank correlation techniques are applied to this model. The former is cost-effective for large computer programs because it gives smaller error in estimating output distribution even with smaller number of runs compared to crude Monte Carlo technique. The latter is good for generating dependence structure among samples of input parameters. It is also used to find out the most sensitive, or important, parameter groups among given input parameters. The methodology of the mathematical modelling with statistical analysis will provide useful insights to the decision-making of radioactive waste repository selection and future researches related to uncertain and sensitive input parameters.

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A Methodology of Implementing the Business Process-based Knowledge Management System and its Case Study (BPM 기반의 KMS 통합 구축 방안 및 적용사례: 'H'중공업 영업 및 견적업무 프로세스를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Tae-Chul;Jang, Gil-Sang
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.299-326
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    • 2009
  • R In today's competitive and global business management, Concern of an enterprise is to strengthen the core competency and improve it's internal business process. Therefore, Interest in BPM(Business Process Management) has grown rapidly. BPM is recognized as best solution to meet the needs of organizations that seek the cost down, integration of information, reducing of risk, improvement of productivity. In the past, the company have usually made huge investments in knowledge management systems which are based on repository keeping tacit knowledge. But this paper shows feasibility of implementation of business process-based knowledge management system that could link knowledge with business process. From an academic point of view, Although There could be several ways to build the business process-based KMS. In this paper, when BPM project and KMS project were started at the same time, the way of how to provide workers with task-related knowledge was discussed. As an case study, an estimate process of H company was analyzed and process modelling was carried out and conceptional architecture framework was depicted.

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A Design-Decision Support Framework for Evaluation of Design Options in Passenger Ship Engine Room

  • Kim, Soo-Woong;Lee, Hyun-Jin;Kwon, Young-Sub
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.277-280
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    • 2006
  • Most real world design evaluation and risk-based decision support combine quantitative and qualitative (linguistic) variables. Decision-making based on conventional mathematics that combines qualitative and quantitative concepts always exhibit difficulty in modelling actual problems. The successful selection process for choosing a design/procurement proposal is based on a high degree of technical integrity, safety levels and low costs in construction, corrective measures, maintenance, operation, inspection and preventive measures. However, the objectives of maximising the degree of technical performance, maximising the safety levels and minimising the costs incurred are usually in conflict, and the evaluation of the technical performance, safety and costs is always associated with uncertainties, especially for a novel system at the initial concept design stage. In this paper, a design-decision support framework using a composite structure methodology grounded in approximate reasoning approach and evidential reasoning method is suggested for design evaluation of machinery space of a ship engine room at the initial stages. It is a Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) or Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework, which provides a juxtaposition of cost, safety and technical performance of a system during evaluation to assist decision makers in selecting the winning design/procurement proposal that best satisfies the requirement in hand. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed framework.

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Modelling of timber joints made with steel dowels and locally reinforced by DVW discs

  • Guan, Zhongwei;Rodd, Peter
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.391-404
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    • 2003
  • Local reinforcement in dowel type timber joints is essential to improve ductility, to increase load carrying capacity and to reduce the risk of brittle failure, especially in the case of using solid dowel. In many types of reinforcing materials available today, DVW (densified veneer wood) has been demonstrated to be the most advantages in terms of compatibility, embedding performance and ductility. Preliminary studies show that using appropriately sized DVW discs bonded into the timber interfaces may be an effective way to reinforce the connection. In this paper, non-linear 3-dimensional finite element models, incorporating orthotropic and non-linear material behaviour, have been developed to simulate structural performance of the timber joints locally reinforced by DVW discs. Different contact algorithms were applied to simulate contact conditions in the joints. The models were validated by the corresponding structural tests. Correlation between the experimental results and the finite element simulations is reasonably good. Using validated finite element models, parametric studies were undertaken to investigate effects of the DVW disc sizes and the end distances on shear stresses and normal stresses in a possible failure plane in the joint.