• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.105-123
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• 2020

This study analyzes the risk selection behavior of Japanese households. The study approaches the view of 'the hyperbolic discount' which is used in behavioral economics based on the rise in mortgage lending by low-income households in the late 2000s. The study focuses on how households risk preferences vary by income levels. The study analyzes the relationship of attitude of household interest rate risk using Binomial Logistic and Heckman two-step estimation method assuming that there are only two types of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage and Fixed-Rate Mortgage. As a result of the empirical analysis, low-income households annual income tend to have a higher proportion of housing debt as same as higher interest rate risk preferences households in proportion to income growth and interest rate risk preferences. Those results indicate that there is possibility of a hyperbolic discount on low-income households in Japan, and support the hypothesis that low-income households are relatively higher household debt ratio because of high utility due to home purchase in the near future (short-term).

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.235-243
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• 2014

Constrained Bayesian estimates overcome the over shrinkness toward the mean which usual Bayes and empirical Bayes estimates produce by matching first and second empirical moments; subsequently, a constrained Bayes estimate is recommended to use in case the research objective is to produce a histogram of the estimates considering the location and dispersion. The well-known squared error loss function exclusively emphasizes the precision of estimation and may lead to biased estimators. Thus, the balanced loss function is suggested to reflect both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. In insurance pricing, the accurate location estimates of risk and also dispersion estimates of each risk group should be considered under proper loss function. In this paper, by applying these two ideas, the benefit of the constrained Bayes estimates and balanced loss function will be discussed; in addition, application effectiveness will be proved through an analysis of real insurance accident data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.91-95
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• 2014

During a flood season, Bo region could be easily exposed to flood due to increase of ground water level and the water drain difficulty even the water amount of Bo can be managed. GFI for the flood risk is measured by mean depth to water during a dry season and minimum depth to water and tangent degree during a flood season. In this paper, a forecasting model of the target variable, GFI and predictors as differences of height between ground water and Bo water, distances from water resource, and soil characteristics are obtained for the dry season of 2012 and the flood season of 2012 with empirical data of Gangjungbo and Hamanbo. Obtained forecasting model would be used for keep the value of GFI below the maximum allowance for no flooding during flooding seasons with controlling the values of significant predictors.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.757-773
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• 2012

Traditional value at risk(S-VaR) has a difficulity in predicting the future risk of financial asset prices since S-VaR is a backward looking measure based on the historical data of the underlying asset prices. In order to resolve the deficiency of S-VaR, an economic value at risk(E-VaR) using the risk neutral probability distributions is suggested since E-VaR is a forward looking measure based on the option price data. In this study E-VaR is estimated by assuming the generalized gamma distribution(GGD) as risk neutral density function which is implied in the option. The estimated E-VaR with GGD was compared with E-VaR estimates under the Black-Scholes model, two-lognormal mixture distribution, generalized extreme value distribution and S-VaR estimates under the normal distribution and GARCH(1, 1) model, respectively. The option market data of the KOSPI 200 index are used in order to compare the performances of the above VaR estimates. The results of the empirical analysis show that GGD seems to have a tendency to estimate VaR conservatively; however, GGD is superior to other models in the overall sense.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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• v.41
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• pp.205-234
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• 2009

The trade portal site is one of the innovative skills which makes it possible for trade companies to manage international trade activities more efficiently by using the newest information technology. Especially, trade portal site can be considerable help to small and medium-sized enterprises which have much difficulties in finding overseas buyers due to the lack of international marketing capabilities. This study attempts to present a comprehensive model about the determinants of e-Trust in domestic trade portal site and to suggest practical strategies for e-Trade. Therefore, a theoretical framework was presented by the literature review, and a empirical study was carried out through a questionnaire survey to those who have had experiences of visiting trade portal site. The empirical analysis had the following results. First, it reveals that reputation, web-site quality, transaction efficiency of the trade portal site have influence upon e-Trust dimension. On the other hand, perceived risk did not have significant relationship with e-Trust. Second, e-Trust had significant impact on willingness to depend on the trade portal site. And also, e-Trust had positive influence on performance of using which is measured by sales increase, information sharing, and synergy effect.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.211-222
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• 2020

This study examines simultaneous relationships between regulatory capital, risk, and cost-inefficiency for a sample of 30 commercial banks in Bangladesh from 2006 to 2018. To conduct the analysis, we used the Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) in an unbalanced panel data framework. The empirical results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between capital regulation and credit, and overall risk. It is also evident from the results that the capital adequacy ratio is positively and significantly related to default risk and liquidity risk. Therefore, higher capitalized banks take an effort to prevent more credit risk and promote financial stability by reducing liquidity risk. Results also report that banks have been characterized as inefficient, less capitalized, and high risk. On the other hand, efficient banks are more stable but have a high level of liquidity risk. Besides, from the size of the bank, large banks are defined as having lower regulatory capital, are more risk seekers but stable with higher cost-efficiency. Notably, higher capitalized banks are more profitable and cost-efficient by reducing risk. Finally, this study also provides some insightful policy suggestions to the stakeholders.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1661-1671
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• 2016

Risk analysis is a systematic study of uncertainties and risks we encounter in business, engineering, public policy, and many other areas. Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most widely used risk measurements in risk management. In this paper, the Korean Composite Stock Price Index data has been utilized to model the VaR employing the classical ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) models with normal, t, generalized hyperbolic, and generalized pareto distributed errors. The aim of this paper is to compare the performance of each model in estimating the VaR. The performance of models were compared in terms of the number of VaR violations and Kupiec exceedance test. The GARCH-GPD likelihood ratio unconditional test statistic has been found to have the smallest value among the models.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.157-169
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• 2018

The purpose of this study was to examine the volatility of bitcoin, diagnose if bitcoin are a systematic risk asset, and evaluate their effectiveness by estimating market beta representing systematic risk using GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedastieity) model. First, the empirical results showed that the market beta of Bitcoin using the OLS model was estimated at 0.7745. Second, using GARCH (1, 2) model, the market beta of Bitcoin was estimated to be significant, and the effects of ARCH and GARCH were found to be significant over time, resulting in conditional volatility. Third, the estimated market beta of the GARCH (1, 2), AR (1)-GARCH (1), and MA (1)-GARCH (1, 2) models were also less than 1 at 0.8819, 0.8835, and 0.8775 respectively, showing that there is no systematic risk. Finally, in terms of efficiency, GARCH model was more efficient because the standard error of a market beta was less than that of the OLS model. Among the GARCH models, the MA (1)-GARCH (1, 2) model considering non-simultaneous transactions was estimated to be the most appropriate model.

• Culinary science and hospitality research
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.1-13
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• 2010

This study aims to clear the relation between perceived risk and user's attitude and behavior toward a food service event. To accomplish this, theoretical reviews and empirical analysis were jointly carried out. For the empirical analysis, a survey was conducted from April 3 to April 6, and total 291 copies of the questionnaire were used for the statistical analysis, SPSS 15.0 and LISREL 8.30. The results of the test of the hypotheses can be summarized as follows: First, the analysis shows that there is significant difference between the perceived risk and attitude of a food service event user. The perceived risk of food service event users causes effect that is contradictory in attitude. As users' perceived risk is less, attitude improved. Second, the analysis of the relationship between user's attitude and behavior intention showed that user's attitude affected behavior intention. Therefore, under these circumstances, there should be more concern in solving perceived risk among food service event users and a special program for promoting satisfaction with an event. And food service event director should make more efforts in nutritive value, organic food, time saving, etc.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.221-230
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• 2023

Under increased complexity and uncertainty of overseas construction projects, it is important for construction companies to improve their own project risk management capabilities instead of risk-taking strategies to secure competitiveness in the overseas construction market. Although most of the risks occur in project execution stage, many previous studies focused on planning stage including risk identification and analysis among PRM process. Therefore, this study aims to verify the effectiveness of whole PRM process during project execution stage through empirical study on participants of overseas construction projects. As the result it was found that first, the factor directly affects the project success is the execution process of PRM. It implies that appropriate actions such as appointing charged manager for risks, timely implementation of responding plan, continuous risk monitoring and updating established plan are the key for contribution to the project success. Second, the importance of communication in PRM is also found, which is not conducted at a specific but throughout the entire PRM process and need to be managed as essential factor for successful PRM..