• 제목/요약/키워드: risk empirical analysis

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Optimum Risk-Adjusted Islamic Stock Portfolio Using the Quadratic Programming Model: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

  • MUSSAFI, Noor Saif Muhammad;ISMAIL, Zuhaimy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.839-850
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    • 2021
  • Risk-adjusted return is believed to be one of the optimal parameters to determine an optimum portfolio. A risk-adjusted return is a calculation of the profit or potential profit from an investment that takes into account the degree of risk that must be accepted to achieve it. This paper presents a new procedure in portfolio selection and utilizes these results to optimize the risk level of risk-adjusted Islamic stock portfolios. It deals with the weekly close price of active issuers listed on Jakarta Islamic Index Indonesia for a certain time interval. Overall, this paper highlights portfolio selection, which includes determining the number of stocks, grouping the issuers via technical analysis, and selecting the best risk-adjusted return of portfolios. The nominated portfolio is modeled using Quadratic Programming (QP). The result of this study shows that the portfolio built using the lowest Value at Risk (VaR) outperforms the market proxy on a risk-adjusted basis of M-squared and was chosen as the best portfolio that can be optimized using QP with a minimum risk of 2.86%. The portfolio with the lowest beta, on the other hand, will produce a minimum risk that is nearly 60% lower than the optimal risk-adjusted return portfolio. The results of QP are well verified by a heuristic optimizer of fmincon.

창업리스크와 경영학과 대학생의 창업의지 (The Start-up Risk and Entrepreneurial Intention of Business Administration University Student)

  • 김영락
    • Journal of East Asia Management
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of start-up risks on university students's entrepreneurial intention. In particular, the start-up risk considers the recent ongoing Covid_19 Pandemic along with the level of awareness of the start-up risk of business administration university students. For this purpose, a total of 204 questionnaires collected for two months from October to November in 2020 were used to verify this relevance empirically through multiple regression analysis. The empirical analysis results are as follows. First, the level of students' awareness of start-up risks has no statistically significant relevance to their entrepreneurial intention, but the higher the level of negative perception of Covid_19 Pandemic, the lower the entrepreneurial intention. On the other hand, additional analysis showed that the students with low self-efficacy majoring in business administration, it was found that negative perceptions of start-up risk had a negative effect on start-up willingness. This study is timely and different from previous studies in that it empirically verified the effect of start-up risk on business administration university students' entrepreneurial intention at a time when negative perceptions of start-up risk increase and COVID_19 Pandemic make it increasingly difficult to start a business administration universit student.

사고예측모형을 활용한 회전교차로 안전성 향상에 관한 연구 - 전라북도를 중심으로 - (Safety Improvement Analysis of Roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do Province using Accident Prediction Model)

  • 김칠현;권용석;강규동
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : There are many recently constructed roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do province. This study analyzed how roundabouts reduce the risk of accidents and improve safety in the province. METHODS : This study analyzed safety improvement at roundabouts by using an accident prediction model that uses an Empirical Bayes method based on negative binomial distribution. RESULTS : The results of our analysis model showed that the total number of accidents decreased from 130 to 51. Roundabouts also decreased casualties; the number of casualties decreased from 7 to 0 and the seriously wounded from 87 to 16. The effectiveness of accident reduction as analyzed by the accident prediction model with the Empirical Bayes method was 60%. CONCLUSIONS : The construction of roundabouts can bring about a reduction in the number of accidents and casualties, and make intersections safer.

Two-layer Investment Decision-making Using Knowledge about Investor′s Risk-preference: Model and Empirical Testing.

  • Won, Chaehwan;Kim, Chulsoo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.25-41
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    • 2004
  • There have been many studies to build a model that can help investors construct optimal portfolio. Most of the previous models, however, are based upon the path-breaking Markowitz model (1959) which is a quantitative model. One of the most important problems with that kind of quantitative model is that, in reality, most of the investors use not only quantitative, but also qualitative information when they select their optimal portfolio. Since collecting both types of information from the markets are time consuming and expensive, making a set of target assets smaller, without suffering heavy loss in the rate of return, would attract investors. To extract only desired assets among all available assets, we need knowledge that identifies investors' preference for the risk of the assets. This study suggests two-layer decision-making rules capable of identifying an investor's risk preference and an architecture applying them to a quantitative portfolio model based on risk and expected return. Our knowledge-based portfolio system is to build an investor's preference-oriented portfolio. The empirical tests using the data from Korean capital markets show the results that our model contributes significantly to the construction of a better portfolio in the perspective of an investor's benefit/cost ratio than that produced by the existing portfolio models.

Basel III Effects on Bank Stability: Empirical Evidence from Emerging Countries

  • ASGHAR, Muhammad;RASHID, Abdul;ABBAS, Zaheer
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.347-354
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    • 2022
  • This article examines the influence of Basel III reforms, risk management, and banking sector efficiency on banks' financial stability in emerging countries. The data for this study is collected from various sources. Based on the GDP classification of IMF, the top 22 countries were selected as the sample. The sampling frame includes all six regions of the world including 482 banks and 3022 observations in total. The empirical analysis is carried out by estimating the random effects models. It is found that the effects of capital buffer, liquidity, and risk management practices are significant on financial stability. It is also noticed that the capital buffer has a constructive and significant influence on financial stability. However, liquidity management shows a mixed impact, as in some countries, its impact is positive and significant while, in other countries, it is insignificant. Risk management practices have an overall positive influence on financial stability in the case of large economies. However, results are insignificant in the case of small economies. Bank-specific variables, namely profitability, size, and efficiency have a positive whereas, loan quality has a negative impact on financial stability in the emerging countries. GDP has a positive impact on financial stability whereas inflation and unemployment both have a negative effect on financial stability.

Leverage and Bankruptcy Risk - Evidence from Maturity Structure of Debt: An Empirical Study from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Thi Thanh;KIEN, Vu Duc
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2022
  • This study examines the relationship between debt maturity structure and bankruptcy risk. There are various studies of leverage's effect on bankruptcy risk. Debt maturity, however, has not received the attention it deserves, especially in emerging markets with a high degree of information asymmetry. Using Vietnamese listed company data and various estimations, we find that leverage is positively associated with the likelihood of default. Importantly, short-term leverage shows a significantly positive effect on bankruptcy risk, while long-term leverage does not show significant results. The findings highlight that rollover risk firms are exposed to when using short-term debt increases bankruptcy risk. Meanwhile, firms do not cope with this risk in case of long-term debt adoption. High information asymmetry in emerging markets may be the main reason for the difference. The result is robust for subsamples of firms in different financial conditions, in concentrated and competitive industries, as well as for manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. We also find that firms in a better financial situation and concentrated industries experience a higher short-term leverage effect than their counterparts. We, however, do not find a significant difference in the impact between manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. This paper is among the first to examine the relation between debt maturity and bankruptcy risk in Vietnam.

매도후임대의 리스크 대비 성과의 비교분석: 선박투자회사 출자 및 선박 인수 사례를 중심으로 (A Comparative Analysis of Risk-to-Performance of Sale and Lease Back: Based on the cases of ship investment company investment and ship acquisition)

  • 장욱
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - I analyzes risk-to-performance evaluated in the market using data from sale and lease back. Specifically, I analyze from the perspective of financial institutions that purchase sale and lease back based on the cases of investment by ship investment companies and acquisition of ships. Design/methodology/approach - I use 49 sale and lease back data from 2017 to 2019 for empirical analysis. Findings - The main results of this paper are as follows. First, after sale and lease back of domestic ships, the average amount of sales by the leased shipping company is 25.1 billion won, the average amount of investment by the purchased financial institution is 14.6 billion won (60%) and the average length of the ship is nine years. In ship finance, sale and lease back is deemed to be appropriately used as a means of restructuring for a large amount of money. Second, the main risk factor for sale and lease back of domestic ships is credit risk and can be measured in VaR in practice. As a result of the empirical analysis, the average credit risk burden ratio is 9%. As a major risk factor, low creditworthiness of restructuring companies is the key. Third, as a result of measuring the profitability of financial institutions that purchase sale and lease back of domestic ships at a net current price, it has an average value of 300 million won, but the deviation by case is very large. Fourth, the risk adjusted performance of sale and lease back of domestic ships is 0.54 on average compared to the total risk capital, and 0.52 compared to the stock-risk capital, and as with profitability earlier, the deviation of each case is very large and misaligned. In order to boost the sale and lease back market for large and long-term assets, in order to overcome low profitability as a prerequisite for future participation of commercial purchased financial institutions, it is expected that purchase decisions based on expectations versus risk will be necessary. Research implications or Originality - The results of this paper are expected to broaden the understanding of sale and lease back and foster the ability to assess long-term risk and performance. Based on this, it is believed that rapid restructuring of companies through sale and lease back of large amounts of long-term assets will greatly increase the utility of the domestic financial market.

수소충전소 성능평가 장비 안전성 평가 연구 (Risk Assessment for Performance Evaluation System of Hydrogen Refueling Station)

  • 강승규;이동훈
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.232-239
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    • 2022
  • This study performed qualitative and quantitative risk assessment of equipment for evaluating the protocol of hydrogen refueling stations and suggested measures to improve safety. Hazard and operability study was performed for qualitative risk assessment, and Hy-KoRAM was used for quantitative risk assessment. Through a qualitative risk assessment, additional ventilation devices were installed, simultaneous venting of the storage container was prohibited, and the number of repeated refilling of the evaluation equipment was identified to manage the number of fillings of the container. Through quantitative risk assessment, the area around the device was set as a restricted area when evaluating the station, and measures were suggested to reduce the frequency of accidents.

The Effect of Risk-Based Efficiency Value on Firm Value: A Case Study in Indonesia

  • JUNIAR, Asrid;FADAH, Isti;UTAMI, Elok Sri;PUSPITASARI, Novi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.231-239
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of risk efficiency, financial decisions, and financial performance on firm value due to advances in financial reporting technology. This research was conducted on all banking sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesian capital market during a period of eight years, namely 2012-2019 which were selected using the purposive sampling method. The advancement of financial reporting technology is measured by two indicators based on the Internet financial reporting approach. Risk efficiency is measured using three indicators with a risk proxy relative efficiency approach using value at risk. Financial decisions are measured by two indicators that represent funding decisions and investment decisions. Financial performance is measured by two indicators with the profitability approach, and firm value is measured by two indicators based on the investor perception approach. The data analysis technique in this study used multivariate analysis with SEM-PLS. The empirical findings of this study are the advances in financial reporting technology, financial decisions, and risk-based efficiency value have a significant effect on firm value, while financial performance does not have a significant effect on firm value. Banking companies reduce risk to achieve efficiency and result in lower profits.

우리나라 상장기업(上場企業)의 자본구조(資本構造) 결정요인(決定要因)에 관한 연구(硏究) (Determinants of Capital Structure of Korea Listed Firms)

  • 신민식
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.33-69
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    • 1989
  • The Purpose of this study is to test empirically the determinants of capital structure of the Korea Listed Firms. In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, both literature survey and empirical test have been made. For the empirical test, agency and asymmetric information factors as well as traditional ones have been throughly reviewed. Traditional factors tested in this study include firm-size, collateral value of the assets, business risk, tax, non-debt tax shields, and industry effects. Agency and asymmetric information factors include growth opportunities, the percentage of outstanding equity held by inside stockholders, and the number of inside stockholders. From the results of the cross-sectional regression analysis, the adjusted R-square is 1931%, and the overall F-value indicates significance. For the analysis period, the signs of the variables except business risk are as predicted. Firm-size, collateral value of the assets, and business risk significant at the.01-.05 level. In order to determine the influence of industry factors on the financial leverage, a total of 8 dummy variables are added to the regression model. The adjusted R-square inclosed by 4.2% for the first analysis period(1983-1985) and 6% for the second analysis period(1986-1987). This suggests that industry factors are significant in explaining the variations in financial leverage across firms. In order to pursue the influence of agency and asymmetric information factors on the financial leverage, again the cross-sectional regression analysis is done for the middle size firms gruop(n=40). The adjusted R-square increased by 9.8% for the first analysis period(1983-1985) and 6.1% for the total analysis period(1983-1987), and all the signs was as predicted. But both the variables except the number of inside stockholders was not significant.

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