• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.77-86
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• 2019

플랜트 건설 프로젝트에 대한 수요가 증가하고 복잡해짐에 따라 예기치 못한 위험 요소가 증가하고 있다. 이에 플랜트 건설 프로젝트에 대한 중점 리스크 요인을 바탕으로 정량적 리스크 분석 및 평가 모델 개발이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구는 보험 회사에서 수집 한 보험금 지급 데이터를 사용하여 플랜트 건설 프로젝트의 실제 재정적 손실을 위험 평가 모델의 종속 변수로 반영하였으며 문헌 검토 및 데이터 분석을 바탕으로, 지형, 시운전, 공정률, 총 공시비 및 총 공사기간을 독립변수로 채택하였다. 제안된 손실율 모델은 플랜트 프로젝트 리스크 분석과 시공/시운전 단계의 리스크 분석가이드라인으로 활용될 수 있다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제40권3호
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• pp.27-37
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• 2017

As the global uncertainty of manufacturing has increased and the quality problem has become global, the recall has become a fatal risk that determines the durability of the company. In addition, as the convergence of PSS (product-service system) product becomes common due to the development of IT convergence technology, if the function of any part of hardware or software does not operate normally, there will be a problem in the entire function of PSS product. In order to manage the quality of such PSS products in a stable manner, a new approaches is needed to analyze and manage the hardware and software parts at the same time. However, the Fishbone diagram, FTA, and FMEA, which are widely used to interpret the current quality problem, are not suitable for analyzing the quality problem by considering the hardware and software at the same time. In this paper, a quality risk assessment model combining FTA and FMEA based on defect rate to be assessed daily on site to manage quality and fishbone diagram used in group activity to solve defective problem. The proposed FTA-FMEA based risk assessment model considers the system structure characteristics of the defect factors in terms of the relationship between hardware and software, and further recognizes and manages them as risk. In order to evaluate the proposed model, we applied the functions of ITS (intelligent transportation system). It is expected that the proposed model will be more effective in assessing quality risks of PSS products because it evaluates the structural characteristics of products and causes of defects considering hardware and software together.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.79-93
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• 2009

오염물질에 대한 생태위해성평가(ecological risk assessment)를 위해서는 노출평가(exposure assessment)와 함께 생물영향에 대한 평가(effect assessment)를 수행해야 한다. 노출평가의 경우는 지화학적 과정에 대한 이해를 바탕으로 환경농도를 예측하기 위한 화학평형모델이나 다매체환경거동모델 등 다양한 평가 및 예측모델을 활용해 왔다. 이와 달리 생물영향평가는 실험실 조건에서 제한된 독성자료를 대상으로 외부노출농도에 기반한 농도-반응관계를 통계적 방법을 통해서 추정하는 '경험적 모델(empirical model)'에 주로 의존해 왔다. 최근에 와서 생체 내 잔류량을 기반으로 농도-시간-반응관계를 기술하고 예측하는 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델(toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model)과 같은 독성작용에 기반한 모델(processbased model)들이 개발되어 활용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 여러 종류의 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델을 소개하고, 이를 통계적 추론에 기반한 전통적인 독성학 모델과 비교하였다. 서로 다른 종류의 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델로부터 도출된 노출농도-시간 -반응관계식을 비교하고, 동일 독성기작을 보이는 오염물질 그룹 내에서 미측정 오염물질의 독성을 예측할 수 있게 해주는 구조-활성관계(Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship, QSAR) 모델을 여러 독성동태 및 독성역학모델로부터 유도하였다. 마지막으로 독성동태학 및 독성역학 파라미터를 추정하기 위한 실험계획을 제안하였고, 앞으로 독성동태학 및 독성역학 모델을 생태계 위해성평가에 활용하기 위해서 해결해야 될 연구과제를 검토하였다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.184-190
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• 2014

Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, because there may exist not only working environments contaminated by radiological exposure but also industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard. Unfortunately, however, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. As a solution, it is quite necessary to utilize experts' opinions for risk assessment in decommissioning process. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not yet. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps which can be classified into two activities, decontamination and dismantling, and on the other, a risk assessment structure was introduced. The whole model was inferred with Fuzzy theory and techniques, and a numerical example was appended for comprehension.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.155-165
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• 2021

Objectives: Acute exposure to high concentrations of chemicals can occur when a chemical accident takes place. As such exposure can cause ongoing environmental pollution, such as in the soil and groundwater, there is a need for a tool that can assess health effects in the long term. The purpose of this study was assessing the health risks of residents living near a chemical accident site due to long-term exposure while considering the temporal concentration changes of the toxic chemicals leaked during the accident until their extinction in the environment using a multimedia environmental dynamics model. Methods: A health risk assessment was conducted on three cases of formaldehyde chemical accidents. In this study, health risk assessment was performed using a multimedia environmental dynamics model that considers the behavior of the atmosphere, soil, and water. In addition, the extinction period of formaldehyde in the environment was regarded as extinction in the environment when the concentration in the air and soil fell below the background concentration prior to the accident. The subjects of health risk assessment were classified into four groups according to age: 0-9 years old, 10-18 years old, 19-64 years old, and over 65 years old. Carcinogenic risk assessment by respiratory exposure and non-carcinogenic risk assessment by soil intake were conducted as well. Results: In the assessment of carcinogenic risk due to respiratory exposure, the excess carcinogenic risk did not exceed 1.0×10-6 in all three chemical accidents, so there was no health effect due to the formaldehyde chemical accident. As a result of the evaluation of non-carcinogenic risk due to soil intake, none of the three chemical accidents had a risk index of 1, so there was no health effect. For all three chemical accidents, the excess cancer risk and hazard index were the highest in the age group 0-9. Next, 10-18 years old, 65 years old or older, and 19-64 years old showed the highest risk. Conclusion: This study considers environmental changes after a chemical accident occurs and until the substance disappears from the environment. It also conducts a health risk assessment by reflecting the characteristics of the long-term persistence and concentration change over time. It is thought that it is of significance as a health risk assessment study reflecting the exposure characteristics of the accident substance for an actual chemical accident.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.33-41
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• 2022

As the number of automobile registrations increases yearly, parking spaces that are located in downtown areas are increasing, and mechanical parking facilities are also increasing. Therefore, there is a high risk of accidents when installing and repairing a mechanical parking facility. In the preceding six years (from 2012 to 2018), the statistics that pertain to accidental disasters indicated that a total of 137 disaster victims were generated by the construction sector, 33 accidents occurred, and 10 people died. However, only the safety management items pertaining to accidents that occur during maintenance work and the use of the installed mechanical parking facilities are being studied; furthermore, there is no ongoing research with respect to the risk management that is conducted at the construction site. In 2017, the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency (KOSHA) announced the "Guidelines for Safe Installation and Maintenance of Mechanical Parking Equipment"; however, it is a safety guideline that is limited to the installation of basic protective equipment and to facility installation. There is no model for mechanical parking facilities that is indicated in the "Risk Assessment Model by Construction Industry Type", which is issued by the Safety and Health Corporation and is widely utilized for risk assessment in the construction industry; moreover, elevator installation work CODE N0: 22 is the only major example of a disaster. In this study, "risk assessment through a focus group interview" was performed, and data was derived from the "risk assessment of Article 41 (2) of the Industrial Safety and Health Act", which reflects the characteristics of the construction industry based on AHP analysis. The results of this study can be utilized for the risk assessment that is conducted during the construction stage of mechanical parking facilities.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.90-97
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• 2016

침몰선박은 침몰 당시뿐만 아니라 오랜 시간이 경과된 후에도 선체 내에 잔존하고 있는 연료유 등 유해물질의 지속적 혹은 일시적 유출로 2차 해양오염사고를 발생시킬 수 있다. 정부에서는 1999년부터 침몰선박에 대한 관리업무를 수행하고, 침몰선박의 잠재적 위해도를 정량적으로 평가할 수 있는 위해도 평가표를 개발하여 운영함으로써 침몰선박에 대한 국가적 관리체계를 구축하고 있다. 그러나 현재의 침몰선박의 위해도 평가는 침몰선박에 잔존하고 있는 연료유 등의 양에 의해 평가점수가 판이하게 달라짐에도 불구하고, 침몰선박 현황보고자료 중 상당수가 연료유 잔존량 항목이 누락되고 있는 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 선박 연료유 잔존량에 대한 추정모델을 개발하여, 현행 침몰선박 위해도 평가에 적용함으로써 보다 정확한 평가를 수행할 수 있는 방안을 마련하였다.

• 보건의료기술평가
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.22-26
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• 2013

Objectives: Balancing benefits and risks through the drug life cycle has been discussed for many decades. The objective of this study was to review the processes and tools currently proposed for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal drugs. It aimed to establish scientific and efficient drug safety management system based on the synthetic analysis of benefit-risk evidence. Methods: We conducted a review of exiting literatures published by regulatory agencies or initiatives. Not only quantitative methodologies but also qualitative method were compared to understand their key characteristics for the benefit and risk assessment of drugs. Results: Recently, benefit-risk assessments have more structured approaches to decision making as part of regulatory science. Regulatory agencies such as European Medicines Agency, FDA have prepared plans to apply benefit-risk assessment to regulatory decision making. Also many initiatives such as IMI (Innovative Medicine Initiative) have conducted research and published reports about benefit-risk assessment. For benefit-risk assessment, four kinds of methods are necessary. Frameworks such as BRAT (Benefit Risk Action Team) framework, PrOACT-URL provide guidance for the whole process of decision-making. Metrics are measurements of risk benefit. The estimation techniques are methods to synthesis and combine evidences from various sources. The utility survey techniques are necessary to explicit preferences of various outcome from stakeholders. Conclusion: There is the lack of widely accepted, validated model for benefit-risk assessment. Nor there is an agreement among academia, industry, and government on methods for the quantitative valuation. It is also limited by available evidence and underlying assumptions. Nevertheless, benefit-risk assessment is fundamental to improve transparency, consistency and predictability for decision making through the structured systematic approaches.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 봄 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.206-207
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• 2022

Currently, safety accidents in construction area are managed regardless of the size. Therefore, the objective of this study is to conduct for developing the quantitative risk assessment according to large and small and medium-sized construction sites. The scope of this study is limited to the fall accidents which is the biggest accidents in the construction sites. the regression analysis was conducted based on the collected data. As a result, it was confirmed that there was a statistically significant difference between larce and small and medium-sized construction sites. This study is expected to be used as basic data for research on the development of a risk quantitative model for small and medium-sized construction sites in the future.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.19-27
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• 2022

Urban Air Mobility is expected to resolve some problems in urban transportation such as traffic congestion and air pollution. Various studies for a large-scale commercialization of UAM are being actively conducted. To that end, the UAM Traffic Management system aims at securing a safety and an efficiency of UAM operations. In this study, a risk assessment model is proposed to evaluate the risk of collision between a vehicle and surrounding obstacles. The proposed model is conceived from the past studies for determining a proper separation distance between parallel runways for their independent operations. The model calculates the risk that the surveillance system fails to meet a target level of safety for a given buffer zone size between a designed route and surrounding obstacles. The model is applied to one of the routes proposed in K-UAM roadmap to evaluate its performances.