• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제41권6호
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• pp.425-437
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• 2015

Objectives: Risk assessment is a tool for predicting and reducing uncertainty related to the effects of future activities. Probability approaches are the main elements in risk assessment, but confusion about the interpretation and use of assessment factors often undermines the message of the analyses. The aim of this study is to provide a guideline for systematic reduction plans regarding uncertainty in risk assessment. Methods: Articles and reports were collected online using the key words "uncertainty analysis" on risk assessment. Uncertainty analysis was conducted based on reports focusing on procedures for analysis methods by the World Health Organization (WHO) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). In addition, case studies were performed in order to verify suggested methods qualitatively and quantitatively with exposure data, including measured data on toluene and styrene in residential spaces and multi-use facilities. Results: Based on an analysis of the data on uncertainty, three major factors including scenario, model, and parameters were identified as the main sources of uncertainty, and tiered approaches were determined. In the case study, the risk of toluene and styrene was evaluated and the most influential factors were also determined. Five reduction plans were presented: providing standard guidelines, using reliable exposure factors, possessing quality controls for analysis and scientific expertise, and introducing a peer review system. Conclusion: In this study, we established a method for reducing uncertainty by taking into account the major factors. Also, we showed a method for uncertainty analysis with tiered approaches. However, uncertainties are difficult to define because they are generated by many factors. Therefore, further studies are needed for the development of technical guidelines based on the representative scenario, model, and parameters developed in this study.

• 한국독성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국독성학회 2006년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.34-45
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• 2006

Chemical toxicants are metabolically converted to numerous metabolites in the body. Toxicokinetic characteristics of metabolites could be therefore used as biomarker of exposure for human risk assessment. Biologically based dose response (BBDR) model was proposed for future direction of risk assessment. However, this area has not been developed well enough for human application. Benzo(a)pyrene (BP), for example, is a well-known environmental carcinogen and may produce more than 100 metabolites and BPDE-DNA adduct, a covalently bound form of DNA with benzo(a)pyrene diolepoxides (BPDES), has been applied to qualitatively or quantitaively estimate human exposure to BP. In addition, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), a widely used plasticize. in the polymer industry, is one of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and has been monitored in humans using urinary or serum concentrations of DEHP or its monomer MEHP for exposure and risk assessment. However, it is difficult to estimate the actual level of toxicants using these biomarkers in humans using. This presentation will discuss a methodology of exposure and risk assessment by application of metabolic profiling kinetics.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제50권4호
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• pp.17-24
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• 2008

Exposure risk assessment of pesticide molinate using the RICEWQ model in a rice paddy plot was performed to observe the effects of various water and pesticide management scenarios. Several scenarios were developed to represent the specific water and pesticide management practices of rice cultivation in Korea. The results of the scenario analysis using the RICEWQ model simulation from the previous studies were analysed. The molinate risk for aquatic organisms is evaluated by the ratio of the predicted environmental concentration(PEC) and the predicted no-effect concentration(PNEC). The results showed that the no-effect periods for aquatic organisms for the deep, shallow and very shallow irrigation conditions were 33.3, 28.9 and 25.6 DATs for the lable rate application and 36.4, 33.7 and 30.8 DATs for the double lable rate application, respectively. The higher application rate showed greater exposure risk to the aquatic organisms. Based on this study, the withholding period of molinate practiced in Korea, that is 3 to 4 DATs, must be much longer. The results of this study can be used for the non-point source pollution control and environmental policy making regarding pesticides.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2021년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.635-637
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• 2021

사이버 보안성 평가란 위협 및 취약성 분석을 통해 시스템의 위험 수준을 평가하여 적절한 보안조치를 취하기 위한 과정이다. 최근 증가하고 있는 사이버 공격과 지속적으로 개발되는 지능형 보안 위협에 대비하기 위해 정확한 보안 평가 모델이 필요하다. 따라서 보안 장비와 구간, 취약점마다 가중치를 할당하여 점수화하는 매트릭 기반 보안 평가 모델 분석을 통해 위험도 평가 모델을 제시한다. 사이버 보안성 평가 시 필요한 요소들을 간략화하고 기업 환경에 맞춰 평가가 가능하다. 보안 장비별 평가를 통하여 기업 환경에 더 적합한 평가를 시행하여 추후 사이버 보안 평가 연구에 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.136-149
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• 2020

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to perform an aggregate human risk assessment for benzene in an industrial complex using the CalTOX model and to improve the reliability and predictability of the model by analyzing the uncertainty and sensitivity of the predicted assessment results. Methods: The CalTOX^TM 4.0 beta model was used to evaluate a selected region, and @Risk 7.6 software was used to analyze uncertainty and sensitivity. Results: As a result of performing the aggregate risk assessment on the assumption that 6.45E+04 g/d of benzene would be emitted into the atmosphere over two decades, 3% of the daily source term to air remained in the selected region, and 97% (6.26E+04 g/d) moved out of the region. As for exposure by breathing, the predicted LADD_inhalation was 2.14E-04 mg/kg-d, and that was assessed as making a 99.99% contribution to the LADD_total. Regarding human Risk_cancer assessment, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, 'source term to air' was identified as the most influential variable, followed by 'exposure time, active indoors (h/day)', and 'exposure duration (years)'. Conclusions: As for the results of the human cancer risk assessment for the selected region, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile, corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, 'source term to air' was found to be most influential.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.271-279
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• 2010

We conducted a quantitative human health risk assessment with respect to inhalation of heavy metals for residents of housing developments in "new towns" where an incinerator will be operated within the area scheduled for construction thereof. To assess potential human health risk we calculated the amount of heavy metals emitted from the incinerator, and then forecasted the potential health impact on adjoining areas where new housing is to be developed (i.e. "new towns") at different altitudes by a using SCREEN-3 model. We assessed Cancer Risk (CR) caused by known carcinogens using the Inhalation Unit Risk criteria developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Notably, we assessed risk by determining concentrations of heavy metals on a floor by floor basis, as apartment buildings are to be constructed near the incinerator according to a pre-devised plan. Results indicated that cancer risk for most carcinogens exceeded US EPA standards for the highest locations at each collection point. This result indicates that construction of high buildings in areas adjoining incinerators is undesirable, and that measures to lower carcinogens are needed. The results of this study, which assessed health risk from exposure to heavy metals emitted from a nearby incinerator, can be useful in land use planning with respect to the location of housing developments in new towns, as well as the heights of any buildings constructed. Furthermore, the methodology deployed herein with respect to risk assessment can be helpful for policy makers and the general public in the event of conflicts regarding incinerator projects in the future. The results herein may also be of merit in determining priorities when establishing harm reduction measures for carcinogens at incinerators. However, the study does contain several limitations. The SCREEN-3 model, a kind of screening model that provides conservative results, can provide higher forecasted concentrations of air pollutants than other models. Moreover, although the incinerator in question is set to be a thermoselect type, domestic data for emissions from these incinerators is not available, and assumptions were based on a stoker type incinerator. Insufficient domestic data likewise compelled the use of data of USA, resulting in possible errors in results. Continued research will thus be required to develop systematic methodologies that address the foregoing factors and produce more reliable outcomes.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.97-106
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• 2018

Despite the development of safety measures and improvements in preventive systems technologies, maritime traffic accidents that involve ships carrying hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) continuously occur owing to increased amount of HNS goods transported and the growing number of HNS fleet. To prevent maritime traffic accidents involving ships carrying HNS, this study proposes an intuitive route risk assessment technique using risk contours that can be visually and quantitatively analyzed. The proposed technique offers continuous information based on quantified values. It determines and structures route risk factors classified as absolute danger, absolute factors, and influential factors within the assessment area. The route risk is assessed in accordance with the proposed algorithmic procedures by means of contour maps overlaid on electronic charts for visualization. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed route risk assessment technique, experimental case studies under various conditions were conducted to compare results obtained by the proposed technique to actual route plans used by five representative companies operating the model ship carrying HNS. This technique is beneficial not only for assessing the route risk of ships carrying HNS, but also for identifying better route options such as recommended routes and enhancing navigation safety. Furthermore, this technique can be used to develop optimized route plans for current maritime conditions in addition to future autonomous navigation application.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권7호
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• pp.3039-3056
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• 2020

Beaches have many risk factors that cause various accidents, such as drifting and drowning, these accidents have many risk factors. To analyze them, in this paper, we identify beach risk factors, and define the criteria and correlation for each risk factor. Then, we generate new risk factors based on Fuzzy theory, and define Situation Awareness for each time. Finally, we propose a beach risk assessment and prediction model based on linear regression using the calculated risk result and pre-defined risk factors. We use national public data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). The results of the experiment showed the prediction accuracy of beach risk to be 0.90%, and the prediction accuracy of drifting and drowning accidents to be 0.89% and 0.86%, respectively. Also, through factor correlation analysis and risk factor assessment, the influence of each of the factors on beach risk can be confirmed. In conclusion, we confirmed that our proposed model can assess and predict beach risks.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제43권5호
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• pp.412-421
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• 2017

Objectives: To establish a system for integrated risk assessment of EDCs in Korea, infrastructure for providing toxicity data of ecological media should be established. Some systems provide soil ecotoxicity databases along with aquatic ecotoxicity information, but a well-structured ecotoxicity database system is still lacking. Methods: Aquatic and soil ecotoxicological information were collected by a toxicologist based on a human readable data (HRD) format for collecting ecotoxicity data that we provided. Among these data, anomalies were removed according to database normalization theory. Also, the data were cleaned and encoded to establish a machine-readable data (MRD) ecotoxicity database system. Results: We have developed a multi-purpose ecotoxicity database model focusing on EDCs, ecological species, and toxic effects. Also, we have constructed a web-based data searching system to retrieve, extract, and download data with greater availability. Conclusions: The results of our study will contribute to decision-making as a tool for efficient ecological risk assessment of EDCs in Korea.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 1997년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.24-31
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• 1997

Recently, in Korea, demand for establishment of systematic risk assessment techniques for construction projects has increased, especially after the large construction failures occurred during construction such as New Haengju Bridge construction projects, subway construction projects, gas explosion accidents etc. Most of existing risk analysis modeling techniques such as Event Tree Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis may not be available for realistic risk assessment of construction projects because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and failure probability precisely due to a lack of data related to the various risks inherent in construction projects like natural disasters, financial and economic risks, political risks, environmental risks as well as design and construction-related risks. Therefor the main objective of this paper is to suggest systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and demonstrate an approach for probabilistic risk assessment using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts. It may be stated that the Fuzzy Event Tree AnaIysis may be very usefu1 for the systematic and rational risk assessment for real constructions problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically expert's experiences and subjective judgement.