• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Applied Time-Temperature Curve for Safety Evaluation in the Road Tunnel by Fire (도로터널내 화재에 따른 터널구조체의 안정성 평가를 위한 시간-온도곡선의 적용)

  • Won, Jong-Pil;Choi, Min-Jung;Jang, Chang-Il;Lee, Sang-Woo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.5A
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    • pp.551-555
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    • 2009
  • This study is performed to apply a standard to evaluate fire protection assessment for tunnel structures when a fire breaks out in the road tunnel. Recently, a number of road tunnels have been rapidly increased and fire risk also multiplyed according to extend tunnel length, due to natural features and environmentally-friendly road construction in Korea. But we have not yet been prescribed appropriate time-temperature curve for tunnel fire. Therefore, we presented fire design model and investigated time-temperature curve proposed by a foreign country considering traffic, a kinds of vehicles which are a basis of heat rate. At the end, Hydrocarbon modified curve applied as design fire model by using numerical analysis and presented design fire model and examined the effects of tunnel structures.

Vest-type System on Machine Learning-based Algorithm to Detect and Predict Falls

  • Ho-Chul Kim;Ho-Seong Hwang;Kwon-Hee Lee;Min-Hee Kim
    • PNF and Movement
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Falls among persons older than 65 years are a significant concern due to their frequency and severity. This study aimed to develop a vest-type embedded artificial intelligence (AI) system capable of detecting and predicting falls in various scenarios. Methods: In this study, we established and developed a vest-type embedded AI system to judge and predict falls in various directions and situations. To train the AI, we collected data using acceleration and gyroscope values from a six-axis sensor attached to the seventh cervical and the second sacral vertebrae of the user, considering accurate motion analysis of the human body. The model was constructed using a neural network-based AI prediction algorithm to anticipate the direction of falls using the collected pedestrian data. Results: We focused on developing a lightweight and efficient fall prediction model for integration into an embedded AI algorithm system, ensuring real-time network optimization. Our results showed that the accuracy of fall occurrence and direction prediction using the trained fall prediction model was 89.0% and 78.8%, respectively. Furthermore, the fall occurrence and direction prediction accuracy of the model quantized for embedded porting was 87.0 % and 75.5 %, respectively. Conclusion: The developed fall detection and prediction system, designed as a vest-type with an embedded AI algorithm, offers the potential to provide real-time feedback to pedestrians in clinical settings and proactively prepare for accidents.

Spatial Inequalities in the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Factors in the Neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran: Bayesian Spatial Models

  • Mansori, Kamyar;Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud;Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza;Motlagh, Ali Ganbary;Salehi, Masoud;Delavari, Alireza;Asadi-Lari, Mohsen
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods: This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The $Besag-York-Molli{\acute{e}}$ (BYM) model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results: The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05). The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53), living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96), not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94) and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68) were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range) and mean (standard deviation) values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01) and 1.05 (1.31), respectively. Conclusions: Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

Project Risk Assessment Through Construction Sequence Analyses for Industrial Plant Construction Projects (산업플랜트 건설 프로젝트의 주요 공정 시퀀스 분석을 통한 리스크 평가)

  • Lee, Kyusung;Choi, Jaehyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.140-151
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    • 2013
  • In 2011 and 2012, Korean construction firms awarded around $ 64.5. Billion each year from the overseas market in 2011. This contract value accounted for overwhelming portion of total overseas construction contract values, and this growth is expected to continue for the next decade. However, contract scopes awarded to the Korean construction firms mainly involve detailed design and construction phases due to their competitiveness for the construction techniques. In other words, front-end-engineering-design and construction project management are not considered part of core business due to the lack of project management skills and experience. The researchers focused on development of construction sequence model required to improve construction planning and scheduling skills for the Korean construction firms. The model identifies critical work items and the sequence throughout project execution process. In addition, the researchers developed a risk evaluation method by applying fuzzy theory to the critical construction activities for the industrial plant construction projects. Developed methodology will help project practitioners to develop project schedule in a timely and effe ctive manner and evaluate project risks associated with scheduling process for the industrial plant construction projects.

Preoperative Prediction for Early Recurrence Can Be as Accurate as Postoperative Assessment in Single Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

  • Dong Ik Cha;Kyung Mi Jang;Seong Hyun Kim;Young Kon Kim;Honsoul Kim;Soo Hyun Ahn
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.402-412
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    • 2020
  • Objective: To evaluate the performance of predicting early recurrence using preoperative factors only in comparison with using both pre-/postoperative factors. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 549 patients who had undergone curative resection for single hepatcellular carcinoma (HCC) within Milan criteria. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify pre-/postoperative high-risk factors of early recurrence after hepatic resection for HCC. Two prediction models for early HCC recurrence determined by stepwise variable selection methods based on Akaike information criterion were built, either based on preoperative factors alone or both pre-/postoperative factors. Area under the curve (AUC) for each receiver operating characteristic curve of the two models was calculated, and the two curves were compared for non-inferiority testing. The predictive models of early HCC recurrence were internally validated by bootstrap resampling method. Results: Multivariable analysis on preoperative factors alone identified aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (OR, 1.632; 95% CI, 1.056-2.522; p = 0.027), tumor size (OR, 1.025; 95% CI, 0.002-1.049; p = 0.031), arterial rim enhancement of the tumor (OR, 2.350; 95% CI, 1.297-4.260; p = 0.005), and presence of nonhypervascular hepatobiliary hypointense nodules (OR, 1.983; 95% CI, 1.049-3.750; p = 0.035) on gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging as significant factors. After adding postoperative histopathologic factors, presence of microvascular invasion (OR, 1.868; 95% CI, 1.155-3.022; p = 0.011) became an additional significant factor, while tumor size became insignificant (p = 0.119). Comparison of the AUCs of the two models showed that the prediction model built on preoperative factors alone was not inferior to that including both pre-/postoperative factors {AUC for preoperative factors only, 0.673 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.623-0.723) vs. AUC after adding postoperative factors, 0.691 (95% CI, 0.639-0.744); p = 0.0013}. Bootstrap resampling method showed that both the models were valid. Conclusion: Risk stratification solely based on preoperative imaging and laboratory factors was not inferior to that based on postoperative histopathologic risk factors in predicting early recurrence after curative resection in within Milan criteria single HCC patients.

A Landscape Ecological Model for Assessing the Korean Urban Forests (도시숲 평가를 위한 경관생태학적 모형 개발)

  • Oh, Jeong-Hak;Kwon, Jin-O;You, Ju-Han;Kim, Kyung-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.178-185
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the effectiveness of the biotope model in applying and developing Korean urban forests. We found that there are 17 biotope assessment indicators, including forest layer structure, site conditions, ratio of broad-leaved trees, species richness, etc. In terms of correlation analysis between indicators, the stand ages and the period of space formation have the highest relativity(coefficient 0.684). On the other hand, indicators that have negative relativity are layer structure and risk, with a coefficient of -0.412. Ten models were developed for the multiple regression analysis. 10 variables(site conditions(X2), ratio of broad-leaved trees(X3) and so forth except layer structure(X1), species richness(X4)) were found to have a 95% significance level The results from comparing the regression model and adding-up estimation matrix, the most accurate one was Model 3, which has a 91.7% out of the 10 models. However more monitoring will be needed to improve the accuracy of models for the Korean urban forests in future.

A Study to Develop an Efficiency Analysis Model to Aids to Navigation (ANEffic) : Manned Lighthouses (항로표지시설 효용성분석 모델(ANEffic) 개발에 관한 연구 - 유인등대에 적용하여)

  • Park, Hye-Ri;Gug, Seung-Gi
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.647-653
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    • 2016
  • There are no ex-port evaluations for the propriety and efficiency of AtoNs considering risk elements and environmental changes after the opening of a port. It is necessary to develop objective indicators and evaluation models to fill this gap. This study establishes an efficiency analysis model for Aids to Navigation (ANEffic) focusing on manned lighthouse, which include 20 function indices. After running a function assessment, an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Likert scale are used to address port operations, national policies and expert opinions. As the result of the assessment, Yeongdo, Gageodo, Geomundo and Jukbyun Lighthouses are highly regarded in the propriety and efficiency of AtoN. And Uleungdo, Gasado, Songdaemal and Ulgi Lighthouses need to review detailed evaluations. The ANEffic developed should be utilized as basic tool to collect data for efficient management and to re-arrange the policy decisions regarding AtoNs as appropriate.

An Advanced Assessment Strategy of Thermal Cracks Induced by Hydration Heat and Internal Restraint (내부구속에 의한 수화열 균열의 개선된 평가 방법)

  • Jeon, Se-Jin;Choi, Myoung-Sung;Kim, Young-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.5 s.95
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    • pp.677-685
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    • 2006
  • Control of the temperature difference across a section is an effective strategy to minimize the hydration-heat-induced cracks for the structures where internal restraint is dominant. The domestic code, however, overestimates probability of the crack occurrence judging from the foreign codes and construction experiences of real structures. Therefore, the background of the equation presented in the domestic code was investigated step by step to examine validity of the equation, and, as a result, it was found that the equation is established on a basis of simple elastic model where the change of elastic modulus in an early age is not considered. An advanced assessment strategy was proposed taking into account the hypoelastic model which corresponds to an incremental constitutive equation. The presented procedure resulted in an increased crack index, i.e. decreased crack risk, the value of which depends on various conditions of the mix and structures. Also, a prediction equation of the temperature difference was proposed which can readily consider the effect of the curing condition and ambient temperature in a hand calculation. For further study, the assessment equation may be more classified to strictly consider the characteristics of the mix and structures if the analytical and experimental data are accumulated.

Flood Risk Estimation Using Regional Regression Analysis (지역회귀분석을 이용한 홍수피해위험도 산정)

  • Jang, Ock-Jae;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2009
  • Although desire for living without hazardous damages grows these days, threats from natural disasters which we are currently exposed to are quiet different from what we have experienced. To cope with this changing situation, it is necessary to assess the characteristics of the natural disasters. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to suggest a methodology to estimate the potential property loss and assess the flood risk using a regional regression analysis. Since the flood damage mainly consists of loss of lives and property damages, it is reasonable to express the results of a flood risk assessment with the loss of lives and the property damages that are vulnerable to flood. The regional regression analysis has been commonly used to find relationships between regional characteristics of a watershed and parameters of rainfall-runoff models or probability distribution models. In our research, however, this model is applied to estimate the potential flood damage as follows; 1) a nonlinear model between the flood damage and the hourly rainfall is found in gauged regions which have sufficient damage and rainfall data, and 2) a regression model is developed from the relationship between the coefficients of the nonlinear models and socio-economic indicators in the gauged regions. This method enables us to quantitatively analyze the impact of the regional indicators on the flood damage and to estimate the damage through the application of the regional regression model to ungauged regions which do not have sufficient data. Moreover the flood risk map is developed by Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) which is equal to the ratio of the estimated flood damage to the total regional property. Comparing the results of this research with Potential Flood Damage (PFD) reported in the Long-term Korea National Water Resources Plan, the exports' mistaken opinions could affect the weighting procedure of PFD, but the proposed approach based on the regional regression would overcome the drawback of PFD. It was found that FVI is highly correlated with the past damage, while PFD does not reflect the regional vulnerabilities.

Levothyroxine Dose and Fracture Risk According to the Osteoporosis Status in Elderly Women

  • Ko, Young-Jin;Kim, Ji Young;Lee, Joongyub;Song, Hong-Ji;Kim, Ju-Young;Choi, Nam-Kyong;Park, Byung-Joo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.36-46
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: To evaluate the association between fracture risk and levothyroxine use in elderly women with hypothyroidism, according to previous osteoporosis history. Methods: We conducted a cohort study from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service claims database from January 2005 to June 2006. The study population comprised women aged ${\geq}65$ years who had been diagnosed with hypothyroidism and prescribed levothyroxine monotherapy. We excluded patients who met any of the following criteria: previous fracture history, hyperthyroidism, thyroid cancer, or pituitary disorder; low levothyroxine adherence; or a follow-up period <90 days. We categorized the daily levothyroxine doses into 4 groups: ${\leq}50{\mu}g/d$, 51 to $100{\mu}g/d$, 101 to $150{\mu}g/d$, and > $150{\mu}g/d$. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with the Cox proportional hazard model, and subgroup analyses were performed according to the osteoporosis history and osteoporosis-specific drug prescription status. Results: Among 11 155 cohort participants, 35.6% had previous histories of osteoporosis. The adjusted HR of fracture for the > $150{\mu}g/d$ group, compared with the 51 to $100{\mu}g/d$ group, was 1.56 (95% CI, 1.03 to 2.37) in osteoporosis subgroup. In the highly probable osteoporosis subgroup, restricted to patients who were concurrently prescribed osteoporosis-specific drugs, the adjusted HR of fracture for the > $150{\mu}g/d$ group, compared with the 51 to 100 ${\mu}g/d$ group, was 1.93 (95% CI, 1.14 to 3.26). Conclusions: While further studies are needed, physicians should be concerned about potential levothyroxine overtreatment in elderly osteoporosis patients.