• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their Bioaccessibility in Meat: a Tool for Assessing Human Cancer Risk

  • Hamidi, Elliyana Nadia;Hajeb, Parvaneh;Selamat, Jinap;Razis, Ahmad Faizal Abdull
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2016
  • Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are primarily formed as a result of thermal treatment of food, especially barbecuing or grilling. Contamination by PAHs is due to generation by direct pyrolysis of food nutrients and deposition from smoke produced through incomplete combustion of thermal agents. PAHs are ubiquitous compounds, well-known to be carcinogenic, which can reach the food in different ways. As an important human exposure pathway of contaminants, dietary intake of PAHs is of increasing concern for assessing cancer risk in the human body. In addition, the risks associated with consumption of barbecued meat may increase if consumers use cooking practices that enhance the concentrations of contaminants and their bioaccessibility. Since total PAHs always overestimate the actual amount that is available for absorption by the body, bioaccessibility of PAHs is to be preferred. Bioaccessibility of PAHs in food is the fraction of PAHs mobilized from food matrices during gastrointestinal digestion. An in vitro human digestion model was chosen for assessing the bioaccessibility of PAHs in food as it offers a simple, rapid, low cost alternative to human and animal studies; providing insights which may not be achievable in in vivo studies. Thus, this review aimed not only to provide an overview of general aspects of PAHs such as the formation, carcinogenicity, sources, occurrence, and factors affecting PAH concentrations, but also to enhance understanding of bioaccessibility assessment using an in vitro digestion model.

ROLE OF COMPUTER SIMULATION MODELING IN PESTICIDE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

  • Wauchope, R.Don;Linders, Jan B.H.J.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Environmental Toocicology Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.91-93
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    • 2003
  • It has been estimated that the equivalent of approximately $US 50 billion has been spent on research on the behavior and fate of pesticides in the environment since Rachel Carson published “Silent Spring” in 1962. Much of the resulting knowledge has been summarized explicitly in computer algorithms in a variety of empirical, deterministic, and probabilistic simulation models. These models describe and predict the transport, degradation and resultant concentrations of pesticides in various compartments of the environment during and after application. In many cases the known errors of model predictions are large. For this reason they are typically designed to be “conservative”, i.e., err on the side of over-prediction of concentrations in order to err on the side of safety. These predictions are then compared with toxicity data, from tests of the pesticide on a series of standard representative biota, including terrestrial and aquatic indicator species and higher animals (e.g., wildlife and humans). The models' predictions are good enough in some cases to provide screening of those compounds which are very unlikely to do harm, and to indicate those compounds which must be investigated further. If further investigation is indicated a more detailed (and therefore more complicated) model may be employed to give a better estimate, or field experiments may be required. A model may be used to explore “what if” questions leading to possible alternative pesticide usage patterns which give lower potential environmental concentrations and allowable exposures. We are currently at a maturing stage in this research where the knowledge base of pesticide behavior in the environmental is growing more slowly than in the past. However, innovative uses are being made of the explosion in available computer technology to use models to take ever more advantage of the knowledge we have. In this presentation, current developments in the state of the art as practiced in North America and Europe will be presented. Specifically, we will look at the efforts of the ‘Focus’ consortium in the European Union, and the ‘EMWG’ consortium in North America. These groups have been innovative in developing a process and mechanisms for discussion amongst academic, agriculture, industry and regulatory scientists, for consensus adoption of research advances into risk management methodology.

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Evaluation of Soil Erosion in Small Mountainous Watersheds Using SWAT Model: A Case Study of the Woldong Catchment, Anseong (SWAT을 이용한 최상류 소유역 토양침식 평가: 안성 월동저수지 유역을 대상으로)

  • Lim, Young Shin;Byun, Jongmin;Kim, Jin Kwan
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.13-33
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    • 2021
  • Successful sediment management at the watershed scale requires an understanding of the erosion, transport and sedimentation processes at the specific site scale. However, studies on the sediment runoff characteristics in a small uppermost watershed, which serves as a sediment supply function, are very rare. Therefore, this study attempted to investigate the fluctuations in major sediment supply areas and sediment runoff in the uppermost mountain small watershed, and for this purpose, ArcSWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools with GIS interface) was applied to the Woldong reservoir catchment located in Gosam-myeon, Anseong-si, Gyeonggi-do. The model results were manually calibrated using the monitoring data of the Woldong reservoir sedimentation rate from 2005 to 2007. It was estimated that annual average of 34.4 tons/year of sediment was discharged from the Woldong reservoir basin. This estimate almost coincided with the monitoring data of the Woldong reservoir during the low flow period but tended to be somewhat underestimated during the high flow period. Although the SWAT model does not fully reflect the erosion process of gully and in-channel, this underestimation is probably due to the spatial connectivity of sediment transport and the storage and reactivation of the sediment being transported. Most of the forested hillslopes with a well-developed organic horizon were evaluated as having a low risk of erosion, while the places with the highest risk of erosion were predicted to be distributed in the logged area with some weeds or shrubs (classified as pasture) with relatively steeper slopes, and in the bare land. The results of this study are expected to be useful in developing strategies for sediment control and reservoir management.

An Analysis of the Management Efficiency for the Rice seeding Farmer in China Using DEA Model (DEA를 활용한 중국 벼 직파농가의 경영효율성 분석)

  • Wang, Xiao-Feng;Yu, Chan-Ju
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.351-374
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, the development of rice industry has been highly valued by the state. In hubei area, due to the development of the modernization and the shortage of labor, traditional way of rice cultivation methods is facing serious challenges, and economic benefits have become the decisive factor for the effective promotion and application of rice cultivation methods. According to the research results, first, in the input-side analysis, in the CCR model, D5, D12, D26, D28, D32, D36 farmers with high efficiency appear. The analysis result shows that among the 60 farmers, the average efficiency is 89%, and there is an inefficiency of 11%. In the BCC model, 14 farmers were identified as high-efficiency farmers, with an average efficiency of 0.9453. Second, in direct seeding cultivation of rice, the average scale efficiency is 0.9227, while the average pure technical efficiency is 0.9644. This shows that the effect of scale efficiency is greater than that of purely technical factors, ignoring the reasons for the low operational efficiency of direct seeding cultivation farmers. It can be predicted that with the further deepening of farmers' understanding of this planting mode, the proportion of rice direct seeding may be further expanded in the future. Relevant agricultural departments should further promote this technology to farmers, study the direct seeding technology using scientific methods, and evaluate the changes of this cultivation mode. The agricultural departments of government should concern about the climate risk assessment of direct seeding rice, the environmental impact assessment caused by the extensive use of herbicides, the application of mechanical technology in the process of direct seeding, the lodging of direct seeding rice, and other related issues.

Establishment of CALUX Bioassay for Dioxin Determination

  • Joung, Ki-Eun;Chung, Young-Hee;Sheen, Yhun-Yhong
    • Environmental Mutagens and Carcinogens
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.137-142
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    • 2004
  • Dioxin-like compounds are ubiquitous environmental polltants that could be accumulated in biological system and toxic to human and wildlife. Given this issue, it is important to develop a reliable dioxin detection methods for a rational risk assesment of dioxin-like compounds. In this study, we tried to set up and validate a sensitive, reliable risk assessment of dioxin-like compounds. In this study, we tried to set up and validate a sensitive, reliable and rapid bioassay model, CALUX bioassay as a screening tool for routine measurement of dioxin-like conpounds in environmental matrices. For the valisation of CALUX bioassay, firstly, we performed dose-response assay for 2,3,7,8-TCDD, most potent dioxin-like compound, using two different methods CALUX and EROD assay. Induction of luciferase activity and CYPIA catalyzed EROD activity were dose-dependently induced by 2,3,7,8-TCDD, with initial induction at 0.1 pM and maximal induction at 1 nM. In order t determine whether the CALUX bioassay could predict the effects of dioxin-like compounds, 2,3,7,8-TCDD dose-response from CALUX was compared with that from EROD assay. The correlation coefficient ($r^2$) was found to be 0.89, indicating a good correlation between two different methods and the possibility of CALUX bioassay as a useful dioxin detecting method.

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Calibration System Suitability Evaluation and Test Limits Determination Method through Factor Analysis of Uncertainty (불확도 요인 분석을 통한 교정 시스템 적합성 평가 및 시험기준 결정 방안)

  • Kim, Hong-Tark;Kim, Boo-Il
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1139-1144
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    • 2019
  • A calibration system for diagnosing and confirming the performance of precision measuring instruments minimizes the risk of misjudgment of calibration resulted by complying with international standard requirements in order to ensure the reliability of calibration results. This paper uses a proposed calibration system suitability assessment and a guard-band technique through an analysis of uncertainty factors when it is impossible to acquire and operate high-performance equipment at a calibration laboratory, and proposes an optimized test limit output model substituting performance standards. The proposed method provides an optimized test standard to meet the quantitative evaluation criteria of the calibration system and the probability of false acceptance risk required by international standards.

Analysis of Thermal Characteristics for the Fire Risk Assessment According to Partial Disconnection on the VCTF and IV Electric Wire (VCTF와 IV전선의 반단선에 의한 화재위험성 평가를 위한 열적특성 해석)

  • Kim, Doo-Hyun;Kim, Sung-Chul;Lee, Jong-Ho;Park, Jong-Young;Park, Young-Ho;Lee, Hyung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2008
  • Many researches on fire risk for normal electric wiring have been pursued in advanced countries such as the USA and Japan, but comparative studies of the partial disconnection and normal state of electric wires have not been conducted. Detection system for the cause of partial disconnection is not developed and prevention countermeasure for electrical fire by the cause is not effective. Therefore, in this paper, partial disconnection characteristics on electric wires were derived and analyzed by experiment and electrical-thermal finite element method(Flux 3D) on the model wires which consist of VCTF(PVC insulated PVC sheathed Cap Tyre Flexible Cord, KS C 3304) and IV(lndoorwire PVC, KS C 3302). VCTF is used in wiring portable electric appliances and the IV is used indoors. Interrelationships between partial disconnection premonitory symptom and current were derived and analyzed by the characteristics based on experiments and thermal analysis for electric wire according to current under normal state and 200% overload state of rated current.

Fire Risk Assessment for Subway Station According to Supply and Exhaust Conditions (지하철 승강장 급배기 조건에 따른 화재 위험성 평가)

  • Kim, Ha-Young;Rie, Dong-Ho;Kim, Jung-Yup
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 2008
  • In this research, to establish the emission for the people who are clearing out, through the numerical analysis using the CFD model, the dangerousness has been investigated in the various emission conditions in a station platform. As a result of research, it is found out that the temperature variation falls between 65.37% and 74.97% to compare without installation of platform screen doors. In the addition, with the supply mode or push-pull mode, the warm current is generated in the platform so the temperature and the layer of smoke are stirred up and felled off. It will make the dangerousness when the people escape. Therefore, when the capacity of emission and the space of platform is set up, the design regards the properties of the fire emission.

Reliability Analysis of Axially Loaded Large-scale Pile Foundations (대형말뚝기초의 축하중 거동에 대한 수치해석기반 신뢰성 해석)

  • Huh, Jung-Won;Park, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Ju-Hyung;Ha, Sung-Han;Kwak, Ki-Seok;Chung, Moon-Kyung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2009.03a
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2009
  • Reliability analyses were performed to quantify the risk in axially loaded large-scale pile foundations in consideration of pile-soil interaction and uncertainties on various design variables. The finite difference method based on an equivalent soil spring model and a load transfer method and Monte Carlo simulation method are integrated in the framework of reliabilty analysis. The applicability and efficiency of the proposed method in the safety assessment of axially loaded pile-soil system was verified using a realistic example. Since the proposed method can explicitly consider uncertainties in various design variables, and quantify failure probability of a pile foundation, it can be used to estimate risk, to obtain basic informations for life cycle cost analysis, and to develop code requirements for a reliability-based design of pile foundations.

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Estimation for Failure Rate of Railway Power Facility and Determination of Maintenance Priority Order using Fuzzy Theory and Expert System (퍼지이론과 전문가 시스템을 이용한 철도 전력 설비의 고장률 평가와 유지보수 우선순위의 결정)

  • Lee, Yun-Seong;Kwon, Ki-Ryang;Kim, Jin-O;Kim, Hyung-Chul
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2009
  • As the Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is being studied, maintenance tasks can be performed effectively through the Risk Priority Number(RPN) evaluation about the components in the system. The RPN is usually calculated through arithmetical operations of three values, Severity, Occurrence, and Detection for each facility. This RPN provides information that includes risk level of the facility and the priority order of maintenance tasks for facility. However, if there is no sufficient historical failure data, it is difficult to calculate the RPN. In this case, historical failure data from other sources can be used and apply this data to korean railway system. In this paper, it is proposed that a new methodology to model the failure rate as a fuzzy membership function. This method is based on failure data from other sources by means of the fuzzy theory and the expert opinion system. And considering assessment tendency of each expert, distortions that happened when the failure rate of facilities is estimated were minimized. This results determine Occurrence values of facilities. Taking advantage of this result., the RPN can be calculated with Severity and Detection of facilities by using the fuzzy operation. The proposed method is applied the rail-way power substation.

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