• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk assessment model

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The comparative risk assessment of LNG tank designs using FTA (고장수목분석법을 이용한 액화천연가스 저장탱크 형식별 위험성 비교 평가)

  • Lee, Seung Rim;Kim, Han Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.48-54
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    • 2012
  • Building above-ground membrane LNG storage tanks have been recently actively reviewed because they have advantages in ease of large capacity, environmental friendliness, and low possibility of gas leakage of the inner tank (slow increase of leakage speed). In this paper, the safety of membrane LNG storage tanks was ensured through comparative risk assessment of full-containment LNG storage tanks and membrane LNG storage tanks by using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Risk assessment results showed that both types of tanks have very similar level of risk except for the membrane storage tanks without additional safety equipments (early model).

Assessment Models of Political Risk and the Sensitivity Analysis (정치적 위험의 평가모형과 민감도분석)

  • Moon, Chang-Kuen;Yim, Chun-Ho
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.105-122
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    • 2007
  • This paper identifies the dimensions of political risk on the basis of the classification between risk and uncertainties to implement the precise identification and assessment of the various types of political risk and develop the sound assessment model to accomplish their practical applications. This paper shows the concrete and detailed processes of deriving the assessment models and applying them with the microsoft excel spreadsheet, confirms the result of Butler and Joaquin(1998), and presents the methods of identifying the various combination effects of the political risk impact and the covariance relationship with the market portfolio return through the sensitivity analysis.

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A Study on the Risk based RAMS Assessment for Railway Rolling Stock Systems (철도차량시스템의 위험기반 RAMS 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Mun-Gyu;Han, Seong-Ho
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.220-230
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    • 2015
  • Rolling stock RAMS is a field of engineering which integrates reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS) characteristics into an inherent product design property through rolling stock system engineering process. It is implemented to achieve operational objectives successfully, and recently the RAMS has become a rapidly growing engineering discipline because it has a great potential to ensure safety and improve cost effectiveness. However, the Korean rolling stock industry has not yet implemented RAMS management in the rolling stock engineering process, despite the issue having been addressed since the introduction of the KTX. Thus, this paper discusses the processes, methods and techniques for RAMS assessment in three parts. Firstly, it outlines a process of the overall RAMS performance assessment for achieving technical RAMS design criteria. Secondly, it discusses a process for assessing the operational RAM and allocating the RAM. This paper also proposes a model for assessing safety-based risk management, which includes five analytic techniques for identifying the causes and consequences of a system failure. Finally, a case example is provided for the risk assessment of the pneumatic braking device.

Contaminant Fate and Transport Modeling for Risk Assessment (위해성평가를 위한 지중 오염물질 거동 모델 이용)

  • Kim, Mee-Jeong;Park, Jae-Woo
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2007
  • This study reviewed the overall process of application of contaminant fate and transport model as part of risk assessment. Site characterization and establishment of a conceptual model prior to establishing or selecting a appropriate model were described. Types of models, model selection guidance, and generic site conditions for model application were presented, the process of model calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis were reviewed. Objectives of modeling should be defined before model selection, and the complexity of selected models should balance the quantity and quality of available input data with the desired model output. If model output is highly sensitive to an assumed or default value of input parameter, or fate and transport models cannot be adequately calibrated or validated, consideration should be given to other options such as using measured data or using another model.

Development of A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model by BIM-based Risk Factor Extraction - Focusing on Falling Accidents - (BIM 기반 위험요소 도출을 통한 정량적 위험성 평가 모델 개발 - 떨어짐 사고를 중심으로 -)

  • Go, Huijea;Hyun, Jihun;Lee, Juhee;Ahn, Joseph
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2022
  • As the incidence and mortality of serious disasters in the construction industry are the highest, various efforts are being made in Korea to reduce them. Among them, risk assessment is used as data for disaster reduction measures and evaluation of risk factors at the construction stage. However, the existing risk assessment involves the subjectivity of the performer and is vulnerable to the domestic construction site. This study established a DB classification system for risk assessment with the aim of early identification and pre-removal of risks by quantitatively deriving risk factors using BIM in the risk assessment field and presents a methodology for risk assessment using BIM. Through this, prior removal of risks increases the safety of construction workers and reduces additional costs in the field of safety management. In addition, since it can be applied to new construction methods, it improves the understanding of project participants and becomes a tool for communication. This study proposes a framework for deriving quantitative risks based on BIM, and will be used as a base technology in the field of risk assessment using BIM in the future.

A Study on the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hydrogen-LPG Combined Refueling Station (수소-LPG 복합충전소 정량적 위험성평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Seung Kyu
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 2019
  • In this study, a quantitative risk assessment was carried out for a hydrogen complex station. The complex fueling station to be evaluated was hydrogen-LPG, and the components of each station were analyzed and the risk was evaluated. The final risk is assessed by individual and societal risks, taking into account the impact of damage and the frequency of accidents. As a result of individual risk calculation for the hydrogen-LPG fueling station that is the subject of this study, the hydrogen-LPG type fueling station does not show the unacceptable hazardous area (> 1 × 10E-3) proposed by HSE. The level of individual risk for both the public and the worker is within acceptable limits. In societal risk assessment, the model to be interpreted shows the distribution of risks in an acceptable range(ALARP, As Low As Reasonably Practicable). To ensure improved safety, we recommend regular inspections and checks for high-risk hydrogen reservoirs, dispensers, tube trailer leaks, and LPG vapor recovery lines.

Two Models to Assess Fuzzy Risk of Natural Disaster in China

  • Chongfu, Huang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.16-26
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    • 1997
  • China is one of the few countries where natural disaster strike frequently and cause heavy damage. In this paper, we mathematically develop two models to assess fuzzy risk of natural disaster in China. One is to assess the risk based on database of historical disaster effects by using information diffusion method relevant in fuzzy information analysis. In another model, we give an overview over advanced method to calculate the risk of release, exposure and consequence assessent, where information distribution technique is used to calculate basic fuzzy relationships showing historical experience of natural disasters, and fuzzy approximate inference is employed to study loss risk based on these basic relationships. We also present an examples to show how to use the first model. Result show that the model is effective for natural disaster risk assessment.

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Does performing high- or low-risk coronary artery bypass graft surgery bias the assessment of risk-adjusted mortality rates of hospitals? (관상동맥우회로술의 위험 수준이 병원내사망률 평가 결과에 미친 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Kwang-Soo;Lee, Sang-Il;Lee, Jung-Soo
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.87-105
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze whether nonemergency, isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery for high- or low-risk patients biases the assessment of the risk-adjusted mortality rates of hospitals. This study used 2002 National Health Insurance claims data for tertiary hospitals in Korea. The study sample consisted of 1,959 patients from 23 tertiary hospitals. The risk-adjustment model used the patients' biological, admission, and comorbidity data identified in the claims. The subjects were classified into high- and low-risk groups based on predicted surgical risk. The crude mortality rates and risk-adjusted mortality rates for low-risk, high-risk, and all patients in a hospital were compared based on the rank and the four intervals defined by quartile. Also, the crude mortality rates of the three groups were compared with their 95% confidence intervals of predicted mortality rates. The C-statistic (0.83) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test ($X^2$=11.47, p=0.18) indicated that the risk-adjustment model performed well. Presenting crude mortality rates with their 95% confidence intervals of predicted rates showed higher agreements among the three groups than using the rank or intervals of mortality rates defined by quartile in the hospital performance assessment. The crude mortality rates for the low-risk patients in 21 of the 23 hospitals were located on the same side of their 95% confidence intervals compared to that for all patients. High-risk patients and all patients differed at only one hospital. In conclusion, the impact of risk selection by hospital on the assessment results was the smallest when comparing the crude inpatient mortality rates of CABG patients with the 95% confidence intervals of predicted mortality rates. Given the increasing importance of quality improvements in Korean health policy, it will be necessary to use the appropriate method of releasing the hospital performance data to the public to minimize any unwanted impact such as risk-based hospital selection.

The Internal Dose Assessment of Ingested Radon using a PBPK Model for Repeated Oral Exposures (음용수를 통한 라돈의 반복섭취시 동적 약리학모델을 활용한 체내거동 평가)

  • 유동한;이창우
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2001
  • A daily newspaper in Korea addressed an controversial issue recently that the concentration of radon measured from the groundwater in Taejon was found out a relatively high level. The cancer risk arising from ingestion of such radon should be derived from calculation of the dose absorbed by the tissues at risk. The study performed by the National Research Council in United States confirmed that the use of a PBPK model for the ingested radon could provide the useful information regarding the distribution of radon among the organs of the body. This study presents an approach for the internal dose assessment of ingested radon for this case. At first, the study develops a PBPK model for ingested radon. However, the important issue is how to simulate a more realistic situation using the model associated with repeated oral doses rather than a single oral dose. The simulations are performed for repeated oral exposures per 8-hour interval using the PBPK model for a male adult. The concentration and cumulative value of radon concentration are calculated and analyzed for lung tissue and adipose group, respectively. The results could be used for the realistic prediction of the internal dose of radon in the human body for repeated oral exposures.

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Environmental Distribution of Air Pollutants and Environmental Risk Assessment in Regional Scale

  • Matsumoto, Fumio;Saito, Mitsugu;Otsuka, Naohiro
    • International Journal of Safety
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2010
  • We measured the concentrations of air pollutants at several residential sites, roadside sites and industrial sites in Iwate Prefecture, Japan. And the concentration distributions of air pollutants were estimated by atmospheric dispersion model using air emissions data. Based on those results, we calculated environmental risk of air pollutants emitted in Iwate Prefecture. As a result, it was found that the surround of factories with high emissions and highly toxic chemicals and the roadsides were high risk area, benzo(a)pyrene, formaldehyde and ozone exceeded the $10^{-5}$ risk level. Moreover, we tried to use "Loss of life expectancy: LLE" for an index to explain those risk to general public intelligibly. The total LLE of the carcinogenic chemicals was about 8.6 hours. Moreover, LLE of ozone was about 9.2 hours. Ozone has a big influence compared with the carcinogenic chemicals.