• Title/Summary/Keyword: resources evaluation

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A Study on Intelligent Value Chain Network System based on Firms' Information (기업정보 기반 지능형 밸류체인 네트워크 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Kim, Kang-Hoe;Moon, Young-Su;Lee, Ho-Shin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.67-88
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    • 2018
  • Until recently, as we recognize the significance of sustainable growth and competitiveness of small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs), governmental support for tangible resources such as R&D, manpower, funds, etc. has been mainly provided. However, it is also true that the inefficiency of support systems such as underestimated or redundant support has been raised because there exist conflicting policies in terms of appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency of business support. From the perspective of the government or a company, we believe that due to limited resources of SMEs technology development and capacity enhancement through collaboration with external sources is the basis for creating competitive advantage for companies, and also emphasize value creation activities for it. This is why value chain network analysis is necessary in order to analyze inter-company deal relationships from a series of value chains and visualize results through establishing knowledge ecosystems at the corporate level. There exist Technology Opportunity Discovery (TOD) system that provides information on relevant products or technology status of companies with patents through retrievals over patent, product, or company name, CRETOP and KISLINE which both allow to view company (financial) information and credit information, but there exists no online system that provides a list of similar (competitive) companies based on the analysis of value chain network or information on potential clients or demanders that can have business deals in future. Therefore, we focus on the "Value Chain Network System (VCNS)", a support partner for planning the corporate business strategy developed and managed by KISTI, and investigate the types of embedded network-based analysis modules, databases (D/Bs) to support them, and how to utilize the system efficiently. Further we explore the function of network visualization in intelligent value chain analysis system which becomes the core information to understand industrial structure ystem and to develop a company's new product development. In order for a company to have the competitive superiority over other companies, it is necessary to identify who are the competitors with patents or products currently being produced, and searching for similar companies or competitors by each type of industry is the key to securing competitiveness in the commercialization of the target company. In addition, transaction information, which becomes business activity between companies, plays an important role in providing information regarding potential customers when both parties enter similar fields together. Identifying a competitor at the enterprise or industry level by using a network map based on such inter-company sales information can be implemented as a core module of value chain analysis. The Value Chain Network System (VCNS) combines the concepts of value chain and industrial structure analysis with corporate information simply collected to date, so that it can grasp not only the market competition situation of individual companies but also the value chain relationship of a specific industry. Especially, it can be useful as an information analysis tool at the corporate level such as identification of industry structure, identification of competitor trends, analysis of competitors, locating suppliers (sellers) and demanders (buyers), industry trends by item, finding promising items, finding new entrants, finding core companies and items by value chain, and recognizing the patents with corresponding companies, etc. In addition, based on the objectivity and reliability of the analysis results from transaction deals information and financial data, it is expected that value chain network system will be utilized for various purposes such as information support for business evaluation, R&D decision support and mid-term or short-term demand forecasting, in particular to more than 15,000 member companies in Korea, employees in R&D service sectors government-funded research institutes and public organizations. In order to strengthen business competitiveness of companies, technology, patent and market information have been provided so far mainly by government agencies and private research-and-development service companies. This service has been presented in frames of patent analysis (mainly for rating, quantitative analysis) or market analysis (for market prediction and demand forecasting based on market reports). However, there was a limitation to solving the lack of information, which is one of the difficulties that firms in Korea often face in the stage of commercialization. In particular, it is much more difficult to obtain information about competitors and potential candidates. In this study, the real-time value chain analysis and visualization service module based on the proposed network map and the data in hands is compared with the expected market share, estimated sales volume, contact information (which implies potential suppliers for raw material / parts, and potential demanders for complete products / modules). In future research, we intend to carry out the in-depth research for further investigating the indices of competitive factors through participation of research subjects and newly developing competitive indices for competitors or substitute items, and to additively promoting with data mining techniques and algorithms for improving the performance of VCNS.

Evaluation for Rock Cleavage Using Distributional Characteristics of Microcracks and Brazilian Tensile Strengths (미세균열과 압열인장강도의 분포 특성을 이용한 결의 평가)

  • Park, Deok-Won
    • Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.99-114
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    • 2020
  • The characteristics of the Brazilian tensile strengths(σt) parallel to the rock cleavages in Jurassic granite from Geochang were analysed. The evaluation for the six directions of rock cleavages was performed using the parameter values on microcrack length and the above strength. The strength values of the five test specimens belonging to each direction were classified into five groups. The strength values of these five groups increase in order of group A < B < C < D < E. The close dependence between the above microcrack and strength was derived. The analysis results of this study are summarized as follows. First, the chart showing the variation and characteristics of strength among the three rock cleavages were made. In the above chart, the strength values of six directions belonging to each group were arranged in order of rift(R1 and R2), grain(G1 and G2) and hardway(H1 and H2). The strength distribution lines of the five groups concentrate in the direction of R1. And the widths among the above five lines indicating strength difference(Δσt) are the most narrowest in R1 direction. From the related chart, the variation characteristics among the two directions forming each rock cleavage were derived. G2(2)-test specimen shows higher value and lower value of the difference in strength compared to the case of G1(1)-test specimen. These kinds of phenomena are the same as the case between the test specimen H2(2) and H1(1). The strength characteristics of the above test specimens (2) suggest lower microcrack density value and higher degree of uniformity in the distribution of microcracks arrayed parallel to the loading direction compared to those of test specimens (1). The six strength values belonging to each group were arranged in increasing order in the above chart. The strength values of the test specimens belonging to both group D and E appear in order of R1 < R2 < G1 < H1 < G2 < H2. Therefore, the strength values of group D and E can be indicator values for evaluating the six directions of rock cleavages. Second, the correlation chart between slope angle(θ) and strength difference(Δσt) were made. The values of the above two parameters were obtained from the five strength distribution lines connecting between the two directions. From the chart related to rift plane(G1-H1, R'), grain plane(R1-H2, G') and hardway plane(R2-G2, H'), the slope values of linear functions increase in order of R'(0.391) < G'(0.470) < H'(0.485). Among three planes, the charts related to hardway plane show the highest distribution density among the five groups. From the related chart for rift(R1-R2, R), grain(G1-G2, G) and hardway(H1-H2, H), the slope values of linear functions increase in order of rift(0.407) < hardway(0.453) < grain(0.460). Among three rock cleavages, the charts related to rift show the highest frequency of groups belonging to the lower region. Taken together, the width of distribution of the slope angle among the three planes and three rock cleavages increase in order of H' < G < R' < R < G' < H. Third, the correlation analysis among the parameters related to microcrack length and the tensile strengths was performed. These parameters may include frequency(N), total length(Lt), mean length(Lm), median length(Lmed) and density(ρ). The correlation charts among individual parameters on the above microcrack(X) and corresponding five levels of tensile strengths for the five groups(Y) were made. From the five kinds of correlation charts, the values of correlation coefficients(R2) increase along with the five levels of strengths. The mean values of the five correlation coefficients from each chart increase in order of 0.22(N) < 0.34(Lt) < 0.38(ρ) < 0.57(Lmed) < 0.58(Lm). Fourth, the correlation chart among the corresponding maximum strength for group E(X) and the above five parameters(Y) were made. From the related chart, the values of correlation coefficient increase in order of 0.61(N) < 0.81(Lt) < 0.87(ρ) < 0.93(Lm) < 0.96(Lmed). The two parameters that have the highest correlations are median length with maximum strength. Through the above correlation analysis between microcrack and strength, the credibility for the results from this study can be enhanced.

An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea (가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고-)

  • Bang, Sook;Han, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Chung-Ja;Ahn, Moon-Young;Lee, In-Sook;Kim, Eun-Shil;Kim, Chong-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.20 no.1 s.21
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    • pp.165-203
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    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

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Brief Introduction of Research Progresses in Control and Biocontrol of Clubroot Disease in China

  • He, Yueqiu;Wu, Yixin;He, Pengfei;Li, Xinyu
    • 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.45-46
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    • 2015
  • Clubroot disease of crucifers has occurred since 1957. It has spread to the whole China, especially in the southwest and nourtheast where it causes 30-80% loss in some fields. The disease has being expanded in the recent years as seeds are imported and the floating seedling system practices. For its effective control, the Ministry of Agriculture of China set up a program in 2010 and a research team led by Dr. Yueqiu HE, Yunnan Agricultural University. The team includes 20 main reseachers of 11 universities and 5 institutions. After 5 years, the team has made a lot of progresses in disease occurrence regulation, resources collection, resistance identification and breeding, biological agent exploration, formulation, chemicals evaluation, and control strategy. About 1200 collections of local and commercial crucifers were identified in the field and by artificiall inoculation in the laboratories, 10 resistant cultivars were breeded including 7 Chinese cabbages and 3 cabbages. More than 800 antagostic strains were isolated including bacteria, stretomyces and fungi. Around 100 chemicals were evaluated in the field and greenhouse based on its control effect, among them, 6 showed high control effect, especially fluazinam and cyazofamid could control about 80% the disease. However, fluzinam has negative effect on soil microbes. Clubroot disease could not be controlled by bioagents and chemicals once when the pathogen Plasmodiophora brassicae infected its hosts and set up the parasitic relationship. We found the earlier the pathogent infected its host, the severer the disease was. Therefore, early control was the most effective. For Chinese cabbage, all controlling measures should be taken in the early 30 days because the new infection could not cause severe symptom after 30 days of seeding. For example, a biocontrol agent, Bacillus subtilis Strain XF-1 could control the disease 70%-85% averagely when it mixed with seedling substrate and was drenching 3 times after transplanting, i.e. immediately, 7 days, 14 days. XF-1 has been deeply researched in control mechanisms, its genome, and development and application of biocontrol formulate. It could produce antagonistic protein, enzyme, antibiotics and IAA, which promoted rhizogenesis and growth. Its The genome was sequenced by Illumina/Solexa Genome Analyzer to assembled into 20 scaffolds then the gaps between scaffolds were filled by long fragment PCR amplification to obtain complet genmone with 4,061,186 bp in size. The whole genome was found to have 43.8% GC, 108 tandem repeats with an average of 2.65 copies and 84 transposons. The CDSs were predicted as 3,853 in which 112 CDSs were predicted to secondary metabolite biosynthesis, transport and catabolism. Among those, five NRPS/PKS giant gene clusters being responsible for the biosynthesis of polyketide (pksABCDEFHJLMNRS in size 72.9 kb), surfactin(srfABCD, 26.148 kb, bacilysin(bacABCDE 5.903 kb), bacillibactin(dhbABCEF, 11.774 kb) and fengycin(ppsABCDE, 37.799 kb) have high homolgous to fuction confirmed biosynthesis gene in other strain. Moreover, there are many of key regulatory genes for secondary metabolites from XF-1, such as comABPQKX Z, degQ, sfp, yczE, degU, ycxABCD and ywfG. were also predicted. Therefore, XF-1 has potential of biosynthesis for secondary metabolites surfactin, fengycin, bacillibactin, bacilysin and Bacillaene. Thirty two compounds were detected from cell extracts of XF-1 by MALDI-TOF-MS, including one Macrolactin (m/z 441.06), two fusaricidin (m/z 850.493 and 968.515), one circulocin (m/z 852.509), nine surfactin (m/z 1044.656~1102.652), five iturin (m/z 1096.631~1150.57) and forty fengycin (m/z 1449.79~1543.805). The top three compositions types (contening 56.67% of total extract) are surfactin, iturin and fengycin, in which the most abundant is the surfactin type composition 30.37% of total extract and in second place is the fengycin with 23.28% content with rich diversity of chemical structure, and the smallest one is the iturin with 3.02% content. Moreover, the same main compositions were detected in Bacillus sp.355 which is also a good effects biocontol bacterial for controlling the clubroot of crucifer. Wherefore those compounds surfactin, iturin and fengycin maybe the main active compositions of XF-1 against P. brassicae. Twenty one fengycin type compounds were evaluate by LC-ESI-MS/MS with antifungal activities, including fengycin A $C_{16{\sim}C19}$, fengycin B $C_{14{\sim}C17}$, fengycin C $C_{15{\sim}C18}$, fengycin D $C_{15{\sim}C18}$ and fengycin S $C_{15{\sim}C18}$. Furthermore, one novel compound was identified as Dehydroxyfengycin $C_{17}$ according its MS, 1D and 2D NMR spectral data, which molecular weight is 1488.8480 Da and formula $C_{75}H_{116}N_{12}O_{19}$. The fengycin type compounds (FTCPs $250{\mu}g/mL$) were used to treat the resting spores of P. brassicae ($10^7/mL$) by detecting leakage of the cytoplasm components and cell destruction. After 12 h treatment, the absorbencies at 260 nm (A260) and at 280 nm (A280) increased gradually to approaching the maximum of absorbance, accompanying the collapse of P. brassicae resting spores, and nearly no complete cells were observed at 24 h treatment. The results suggested that the cells could be lyzed by the FTCPs of XF-1, and the diversity of FTCPs was mainly attributed to a mechanism of clubroot disease biocontrol. In the five selected medium MOLP, PSA, LB, Landy and LD, the most suitable for growth of strain medium is MOLP, and the least for strains longevity is the Landy sucrose medium. However, the lipopeptide highest yield is in Landy sucrose medium. The lipopeptides in five medium were analyzed with HPLC, and the results showed that lipopeptides component were same, while their contents from B. subtilis XF-1 fermented in five medium were different. We found that it is the lipopeptides content but ingredients of XF-1 could be impacted by medium and lacking of nutrition seems promoting lipopeptides secretion from XF-1. The volatile components with inhibition fungal Cylindrocarpon spp. activity which were collect in sealed vesel were detected with metheds of HS-SPME-GC-MS in eight biocontrol Bacillus species and four positive mutant strains of XF-1 mutagenized with chemical mutagens, respectively. They have same main volatile components including pyrazine, aldehydes, oxazolidinone and sulfide which are composed of 91.62% in XF-1, in which, the most abundant is the pyrazine type composition with 47.03%, and in second place is the aldehydes with 23.84%, and the third place is oxazolidinone with 15.68%, and the smallest ones is the sulfide with 5.07%.

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A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2017
  • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

A Study on the Expressed Desire at Discharge of Patients to Use Home Nursing and Affecting Factors of the Desire (퇴원환자의 가정간호 이용의사와 관련 요인)

  • Lee, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Young-Eun;Lee, Myung-Hwa;Sohn, Sue-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Rehabilitation Nursing
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.257-270
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate factors related to the intent of using home nursing of chronic disease patients who got out of a university hospital. For the purpose, the study selected 153 patients who were hospitalized and left K university hospital with diagnoses of cancer, hypertension, diabetes and cerebral vascular accident and ordered to be discharged and performed interviews with them and surveys on their medical records to obtain the following results. For this study a direct-interview survey and medical record review was conducted from June 28 to Aug. 30, 1998. The frequency and mean values were computed to find the characteristics of the study subjects, and $X^2$-test, t-test, factor analysis and multiple logistic regession analysis were applied for the analysis of the data. The following results were obtained. 1) When characteristics of the subjects were examined, men and women occupied for 58.8% and 41.2%, respectively. The subjects were 41.3 years old in aver age and had the monthly aver age earning of 0.99 million won or below, which was the most out of the total subjects at 34.6%. Among the total, 87.6% resided in cities and 12.4 in counties. The most left the hospital with diagnosis of cancer at 51.6%, followed by hyper tension at 24.2%, diabetes at 13.7% and cerebral vascular accident at 7.2%. 2) 93.5% of the selected patients had the intent of using home nursing and 6.5%, didn't. Among those patients having the intent, 85.6% had the intent of paying for home nursing and 14.4%, didn't. The subjects expected that the nursing would be paid 9,143 won in aver age and 47.7% of them preferred national authorities as the main servers. 86.3% of the subjects thought that home nursing business had the main advantage of making it possible to learn nursing methods at home and thereby contributing to improving the ability of patients and their facilities to solve health problems. 3) Relations between the intent of use and characteristics of the subjects such as demography-related social, home environment, disease and physical function characteristics did not show statistically significant differences among one another. Compared to those who had no intent of using home nursing, the group having the intent had more cases of male patients, the age of 39 or below, residence in cities, 5 family member s or more, no existence of home nursing servers, leaving the hospital from a non-hospitalized building, disease development for five months or below, hospitalization for ten days or more, non-hospitalization with in the recent one month, two times or over of hospitalization, leaving the hospital with no demand of special treatment, operation underwent, poor results of treatment, leaving the hospital with demand of rehabilitation services, physical disablement and high evaluation point of daily life. 4) Among those patients having the intent of using home nursing, 47.6% demanded technical nursing and 55.9%, supportive nursing. As technical nursing,' inject into a blood vessel ' and 'treat pustule and teach basic prevention methods occupied for 57.4%, respectively, topping the list. Among demands of supportive nursing, 'observe patients 'status and refer them to hospitals or community resources as available, if necessary' was the most with percent age point of 59.5. Regarding the intent of paying for home nursing, 39.2% of those patients wishing to use the nursing responded paying for technical services and 20.2, supportive services. In detail, 70.0% wanted to pay for a service stated as 'inject into a blood vessel', highest among the former services and 30.7%, a service referred to as 'teaching exercises needed to make the body of patients move', highest among the latter. When this was analyzed in terms of a relation between the need(the need for home nursing) and the demand(the intent of paying for home nursing), The rate of the need to the demand was found two or three times higher in technical nursing(0.82) than in supportive nursing(0.35). In aspects of tech ical nursing, muscle injection(1.26, the 1st rank) was highest in the rate while among aspects of supportive nursing, a service referred to as 'teach exercises needed for making patients move their bodies normally'(0.58, the 1st rank). 5) factors I(satisfaction with hospital services), II(recognition of disease state), III(economy) and IV(period of disease) occupied for 34.4, 13.8, 11.9 and 9.2 percents, respectively among factors related to the intent by the subjects of using home nursing, totaled 59.3%. In conclusion, most of chronic disease patients have the intent of using hospital-based home nursing and satisfaction with hospital services is a factor affecting the intent most. Thus a post-management system is needed to continue providing health management to those patients after they leave the hospital. Further, supportive services should be provided in order that those who are satisfied with hospital services return to their community and live their in dependent lives. Based on these results, the researcher would make the following recommendation. 1) Because home nursing becomes more and more needed due to a sharp increase in chronic disease patients and elderly people, related rules and regulations should be made and implemented. 2) Hospital nurses specializing in home nursing should be cultivated.

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Security and Safety Assessment of the Small-scale Offshore CO2 Storage Demonstration Project in the Pohang Basin (포항분지 해상 중소규모 CO2 지중저장 실증연구 안전성 평가)

  • Kwon, Yi Kyun;Chang, Chandong;Shinn, Youngjae
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.217-246
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    • 2018
  • During the selection and characterization of target formations in the Small-scale Offshore $CO_2$ Storage Demonstration Project in the Pohang Basin, we have carefully investigated the possibility of induced earthquakes and leakage of $CO_2$ during the injection, and have designed the storage processes to minimize these effects. However, people in Pohang city have a great concern on $CO_2$-injection-intrigued seismicity, since they have greatly suffered from the 5.4 magnitude earthquake on Nov. 15, 2017. The research team of the project performed an extensive self-investigation on the safety issues, especially on the possible $CO_2$ leakage from the target formation and induced earthquakes. The target formation is 10 km apart from the epicenter of the Pohang earthquake and the depth is also quite shallow, only 750 to 800 m from the sea bottom. The project performed a pilot injection in the target formation from Jan. 12 to Mar. 12, 2017, which implies that there are no direct correlation of the Pohang earthquake on Nov. 15, 2017. In addition, the $CO_2$ injection of the storage project does not fracture rock formations, instead, the supercritical $CO_2$ fluid replaces formation water in the pore space gradually. The self-investigation results show that there is almost no chance for the injection to induce significant earthquakes unless injection lasts for a very long time to build a very high pore pressure, which can be easily monitored. The amount of injected $CO_2$ in the project was around 100 metric-tonne that is irrelevant to the Pohang earthquake. The investigation result on long-term safety also shows that the induced earthquakes or the reactivation of existing faults can be prevented successfully when the injection pressure is controlled not to demage cap-rock formation nor exceed Coulomb stresses of existing faults. The project has been performing extensive studies on critical stress for fracturing neighboring formations, reactivation stress of existing faults, well-completion processes to minimize possible leakage, transport/leakage monitoring of injected $CO_2$, and operation procedures for ensuring the storage safety. These extensive studies showed that there will be little chance in $CO_2$ leakage that affects human life. In conclusion, the Small-scale Offshore $CO_2$ Storage Demonstration Project in the Pohang Basin would not cause any induced earthquakes nor signifiant $CO_2$ leakage that people can sense. The research team will give every effort to secure the safety of the storage site.

Electronic Word-of-Mouth in B2C Virtual Communities: An Empirical Study from CTrip.com (B2C허의사구중적전자구비(B2C虚拟社区中的电子口碑): 관우휴정려유망적실증연구(关于携程旅游网的实证研究))

  • Li, Guoxin;Elliot, Statia;Choi, Chris
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.262-268
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    • 2010
  • Virtual communities (VCs) have developed rapidly, with more and more people participating in them to exchange information and opinions. A virtual community is a group of people who may or may not meet one another face to face, and who exchange words and ideas through the mediation of computer bulletin boards and networks. A business-to-consumer virtual community (B2CVC) is a commercial group that creates a trustworthy environment intended to motivate consumers to be more willing to buy from an online store. B2CVCs create a social atmosphere through information contribution such as recommendations, reviews, and ratings of buyers and sellers. Although the importance of B2CVCs has been recognized, few studies have been conducted to examine members' word-of-mouth behavior within these communities. This study proposes a model of involvement, statistics, trust, "stickiness," and word-of-mouth in a B2CVC and explores the relationships among these elements based on empirical data. The objectives are threefold: (i) to empirically test a B2CVC model that integrates measures of beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors; (ii) to better understand the nature of these relationships, specifically through word-of-mouth as a measure of revenue generation; and (iii) to better understand the role of stickiness of B2CVC in CRM marketing. The model incorporates three key elements concerning community members: (i) their beliefs, measured in terms of their involvement assessment; (ii) their attitudes, measured in terms of their satisfaction and trust; and, (iii) their behavior, measured in terms of site stickiness and their word-of-mouth. Involvement is considered the motivation for consumers to participate in a virtual community. For B2CVC members, information searching and posting have been proposed as the main purpose for their involvement. Satisfaction has been reviewed as an important indicator of a member's overall community evaluation, and conceptualized by different levels of member interactions with their VC. The formation and expansion of a VC depends on the willingness of members to share information and services. Researchers have found that trust is a core component facilitating the anonymous interaction in VCs and e-commerce, and therefore trust-building in VCs has been a common research topic. It is clear that the success of a B2CVC depends on the stickiness of its members to enhance purchasing potential. Opinions communicated and information exchanged between members may represent a type of written word-of-mouth. Therefore, word-of-mouth is one of the primary factors driving the diffusion of B2CVCs across the Internet. Figure 1 presents the research model and hypotheses. The model was tested through the implementation of an online survey of CTrip Travel VC members. A total of 243 collected questionnaires was reduced to 204 usable questionnaires through an empirical process of data cleaning. The study's hypotheses examined the extent to which involvement, satisfaction, and trust influence B2CVC stickiness and members' word-of-mouth. Structural Equation Modeling tested the hypotheses in the analysis, and the structural model fit indices were within accepted thresholds: ${\chi}^2^$/df was 2.76, NFI was .904, IFI was .931, CFI was .930, and RMSEA was .017. Results indicated that involvement has a significant influence on satisfaction (p<0.001, ${\beta}$=0.809). The proportion of variance in satisfaction explained by members' involvement was over half (adjusted $R^2$=0.654), reflecting a strong association. The effect of involvement on trust was also statistically significant (p<0.001, ${\beta}$=0.751), with 57 percent of the variance in trust explained by involvement (adjusted $R^2$=0.563). When the construct "stickiness" was treated as a dependent variable, the proportion of variance explained by the variables of trust and satisfaction was relatively low (adjusted $R^2$=0.331). Satisfaction did have a significant influence on stickiness, with ${\beta}$=0.514. However, unexpectedly, the influence of trust was not even significant (p=0.231, t=1.197), rejecting that proposed hypothesis. The importance of stickiness in the model was more significant because of its effect on e-WOM with ${\beta}$=0.920 (p<0.001). Here, the measures of Stickiness explain over eighty of the variance in e-WOM (Adjusted $R^2$=0.846). Overall, the results of the study supported the hypothesized relationships between members' involvement in a B2CVC and their satisfaction with and trust of it. However, trust, as a traditional measure in behavioral models, has no significant influence on stickiness in the B2CVC environment. This study contributes to the growing body of literature on B2CVCs, specifically addressing gaps in the academic research by integrating measures of beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors in one model. The results provide additional insights to behavioral factors in a B2CVC environment, helping to sort out relationships between traditional measures and relatively new measures. For practitioners, the identification of factors, such as member involvement, that strongly influence B2CVC member satisfaction can help focus technological resources in key areas. Global e-marketers can develop marketing strategies directly targeting B2CVC members. In the global tourism business, they can target Chinese members of a B2CVC by providing special discounts for active community members or developing early adopter programs to encourage stickiness in the community. Future studies are called for, and more sophisticated modeling, to expand the measurement of B2CVC member behavior and to conduct experiments across industries, communities, and cultures.

A Thermal Time-Driven Dormancy Index as a Complementary Criterion for Grape Vine Freeze Risk Evaluation (포도 동해위험 판정기준으로서 온도시간 기반의 휴면심도 이용)

  • Kwon, Eun-Young;Jung, Jea-Eun;Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Seung-Jong;Song, Gi-Cheol;Choi, Dong-Geun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

Comparative Analysis of Community Health Practitioner's Activities and Primary Health Post Management Before and After Officialization of Community Health practitioner (보건진료원의 정규직화 전과 후의 보건진료원 활동 및 보건진료소 관리운영체계의 비교 분석)

  • Yun, Suk-Ok;Jung, Moon-Sook
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.141-158
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    • 1994
  • To provide better health care services to the rural population, the government has made the Community Health Practitioner(CHP) a regular government official from April 1, 1992. This study was carried out to study the impact of officialization of CHP on the activities and management system of Primary Health Post(PHP). Fifty PHPs were selected by two stage sampling, cluster and simple random, from 595 PHPs in Kyungnam and Kyungpook provinces. Data were collected by a personal interview with CHPs and review of records and reports kept in the PHPs. The study was done for the periods of January 1-March 31, 1992 (before officialization) and January 1-March 31, 1993 (after officialization). Ninety-six percent of the CHPs wanted to become a regular government official in the hope of better job security and higher salary. The proportion of CHPs who were proud of their iob was increased from 24% to 46% after officialization. Those CHPs who felt insecure for their job decreased from 30% to 10%. Monthly salary was increased by 34% from 802,600 Won to 1,076,000 Won and 90% of the CHPs were satisfied with their salary, also more CHPs responded that they have autonomy in their work planning, implementation of plan, management of the post, and evaluation of their activity. There were no appreciable changes in such CHPs' activities as assessment of local health resources, drawing map for the catchment area, utilization of community organization, grasping the current population structure in the catchment area, keeping the family health records, individual and group health education, and school health service. However, the number of home visits was increased from 13.6 times on the average per month per CHP to 27.5 times. More mothers and children were referred to other medical facilities for the immunization and family planning services. Average number of patients of hypertension, cancer, and diabetes in three months period was decreased from 12.7 to 11.6, from 1.5 to 1.2, and 4.3 to 3.4, respectively. Records for the patient care, drug management, and equipment were well kept but not for other records. The level of record keeping was not changed after officialization. The proportion of PHPs which had support from the health center was increased for drug supply from 14.0% to 30.0%, for consumable commodities from 22.0% to 52.0%, for maintenance of PHP from 54.0% to 68.0%, for supply of health education materials from 34.0% to 44.0%, and supply of equipment from 54.0% to 58.0%. Total monthly revenue of a PHP was increased by about 50,000 Won; increased by 22,000 Won in patient care and 34,700 Won in the government subsidy but decreased in the membership due and donation. However, there was no remarkable changes in the expenditure. The proportion of PHPs which had received official notes from the health center for the purpose of guidance and supervision of the CHPs was increased from 20% to 38% during three months period and the average number of telephone call for supervision from the health center per PHP was increased from 1.8 to 2.1 times(p<0.01). However, the proportion of PHPs that had supervisory visit and conference was reduced from 79% to 62%, and from 88% to 74%, respectively. The proportion of CHPs who maintained a cooperative relationship with Myun Health Workers was reduced from 42% to 36%, that with the director of health center from 46% to 24%, that with the chief of public health administration section from 56% to 36%, and that with the chairman of PHP management council from 62% to 38%. Most of the CHPs (92% before and 82% after officialization) stated that the PHP management council is not helpful for the PHP. CHPs who considered the PHP management council unnecessary increased from 4% to 16%(p<0.05). Suggestions made by the CHPs for the improvement of CHP program included emphasis on health education, assurance of autonomy for PHP management, increase of the kind of drugs that can be dispensed by CHPs, and appointment of an experienced CHP in the health center as the supervisor of CHPs. The results of this study revealed that the role and function of CHPs as reflected in their activities have not been changed after officialization. However, satisfaction in job security and salary was improved as well as the autonomy. Support of health center to the PHP was improved but more official notes were sent to the PHPs which required the CHPs more paper works. Number of telephone calls for supervision was increased but there was little administrative and technical guidance for the CHP activities.

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