• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.176-176
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• 2018

This study presents a regional, probabilistic framework for estimating streamflow via spatial scaling in the Great Lakes basin, which is the largest lake system in the world. The framework follows a two-fold strategy including (1) a quadratic-programming based optimization model a priori to explore the model structure, and (2) a time-varying hierarchical Bayesian model based on insights found in the optimization model. The proposed model is developed to explore three innovations in hierarchical modeling for reconstructing historical streamflow at ungaged sites: (1) information of physical characteristics is utilized in spatial scaling, (2) a time-varying approach is introduced based on climate information, and (3) heteroscedasticity in residual errors is considered to improve streamflow predictive distributions. The proposed model is developed and calibrated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to pool regional information across sites and enhance regionalization skill. The model is validated in a cross-validation framework along with four simpler nested formulations and the optimization model to confirm specific hypotheses embedded in the full model structure. The nested models assume a similar hierarchical Bayesian structure to our proposed model with their own set of simplifications and omissions. Results suggest that each of three innovations improve historical out-of-sample streamflow reconstructions although these improvements vary corrsponding to each innovation. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of possible model improvements considered by additional model structure and covariates.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.305-319
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• 2019

The prediction of the sum of container is very important in the field of container transport. Many influencing factors can affect the prediction results. These factors are usually composed of many variables, whose composition is often very complex. In this paper, we use gray relational analysis to set up a proper forecast index system for the prediction of the sum of containers in foreign trade. To address the issue of the low accuracy of the traditional prediction models and the problem of the difficulty of fully considering all the factors and other issues, this paper puts forward a prediction model which is combined with a back-propagation (BP) neural networks and the support vector machine (SVM). First, it gives the prediction with the data normalized by the BP neural network and generates a preliminary forecast data. Second, it employs SVM for the residual correction calculation for the results based on the preliminary data. The results of practical examples show that the overall relative error of the combined prediction model is no more than 1.5%, which is less than the relative error of the single prediction models. It is hoped that the research can provide a useful reference for the prediction of the sum of container and related studies.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권2호
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• pp.345-355
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• 2019

Use of the reconstructed fuel assemblies from partially burnt nuclear fuel pins is analyzed. This reutilization option is a potential candidate technique to make better use of the nuclear resources. Standard two step method is used to calculate node i.e. fuel assembly average burnup and then pin by pin ${\eta}$ values are reconstructed to ascertain the residual reactivity in the used fuel pins. Fuel pins with ${\eta}$ > 1:0 are used to reconstruct to-be-reused fuel assemblies. These reconstructed fuel assemblies are burnt during the cycle 3, 4, 5 and 6 of a 1000 MW PWR core by replacing fresh, once burnt and twice burnt fuel assemblies of the reference core configurations. It is concluded that using reconstructed fuel assemblies for the fresh fuel affect dearly on the cycle length (>50 EFPD) when more than 16 fresh fuel assemblies are replaced. However, this loss is less than 20 days if the number of fresh fuel assemblies is less than eight. For the case of replacing twice burned fuel, cycle length could be increased slightly (10 days or so) provided burnt fuel pins from other reactors were also available. Reactor safety parameters, like axial off set (< ${\pm}10%$), Doppler temperature coefficient (<0), moderator temperature coefficient at HFP (<0) are always satisfied. Though, 2D and 3D pin peaking factors are satisfied (<1:55) and (<2:52) respectively, for the cases using eight or less reconstructed fuel assemblies only.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권5호
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• pp.1587-1592
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• 2021

The effects of the symmetrical tilt Σ5 (310) <001> grain boundary (GB) on the evolution of radiation-induced point defects in pure δ-plutonium (Pu) were studied by Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The evolution of radiation-induced point defects was obtained when primary knock-on atom (PKA) was respectively set as -15 Å and 15 Å far from the GB and the number of residual defects was obtained as the distance from PKA to GB was changed. According to the results, compared with vacancies, interstitial atoms were more easily absorbed by GB. In addition, the formation energy of point defects was also calculated. The results showed that there was almost no difference for the formation energy of vacancies in the all matrix. However, the formation energy of interstitial atoms close to the GB was lower than that in the other bulk regions.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.507-516
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• 2021

In this study, the machine learning which has been widely used in prediction algorithms recently was used. the research point was the CD(chudong) point which was a representative point of Daecheong Lake. Chlorophyll-a(Chl-a) concentration was used as a target variable for algae prediction. to predict the Chl-a concentration, a data set of water quality and quantity factors was consisted. we performed algorithms about random forest and gradient boosting with Python. to perform the algorithms, at first the correlation analysis between Chl-a and water quality and quantity data was studied. we extracted ten factors of high importance for water quality and quantity data. as a result of the algorithm performance index, the gradient boosting showed that RMSE was 2.72 mg/m³ and MSE was 7.40 mg/m³ and R² was 0.66. as a result of the residual analysis, the analysis result of gradient boosting was excellent. as a result of the algorithm execution, the gradient boosting algorithm was excellent. the gradient boosting algorithm was also excellent with 2.44 mg/m³ of RMSE in the machine learning hyperparameter adjustment result.

• 한국추진공학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.36-42
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• 2021

본 연구에서는 리오셀 섬유를 사용하여 연속식 흑연직물을 제조함에 있어, 리오셀 섬유에 phosphoric acid, ammonium phosphate, diammonium hydrogen, triammonium phosphate의 인계난연제를 처리 후 열중량, 푸리에변환적외선분광, C-핵자기공명분광, X-선 회절, 중량 분석을 통해 나타나는 물리적, 화학적 구조 변화에 대하여 고찰하였다. 인계난연제에 의한 열적 거동을 분석을 통해 내염화 공정의 온도, 가스, 처리시간 등에 대한 조건을 설정하였다. 연속식 내염화, 탄화, 흑연화 공정을 통해 인장강도 1,007.19±11.47 N/5 cm와 수율 25.3%의 흑연직물을 제조하였다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권7호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2022

Combining the strength of both Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) Regression and realized variance measures, this paper seeks to investigate two objectives: (1) evaluate the post-sample performance of the proposed weekly Realized Variance-MIDAS (RVar-MIDAS) in one-week ahead volatility forecasting against the established Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and the less explored but robust STES (Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing) methods. (2) comparing forecast error performance between realized variance and squared residuals measures as a proxy for actual volatility. Data of seven private equity mutual fund indices (generated from 57 individual funds) from two different time periods (with and without financial crisis) are applied to 21 models. Robustness of the post-sample volatility forecasting of all models is validated by the Model Confidence Set (MCS) Procedures and revealed: (1) The weekly RVar-MIDAS model emerged as the best model, outperformed the robust DAILY-STES methods, and the weekly DAILY-GARCH models, particularly during a volatile period. (2) models with realized variance measured in estimation and as a proxy for actual volatility outperformed those using squared residual. This study contributes an empirical approach to one-week ahead volatility forecasting of mutual funds return, which is less explored in past literature on financial volatility forecasting compared to stocks volatility.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.597-608
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• 2022

One of the most important parameters affecting nonlinearsoil-structure interaction, especially rocking foundation, is the vertical factor of safety (F.S_v). In this research, the effect of F.S_v on the behavior of rocking foundations was experimentally investigated. A set of slow, cyclic, horizontal loading tests was conducted on elastic SDOF structures with different shallow foundations. Vertical bearing capacity tests also were conducted to determine the F.S_v more precisely. Furthermore, 10% silt was mixed with the dry sand at a 5% moisture content to reach the minimum apparent cohesion. The results of the vertical bearing capacity tests showed that the bearing capacity coefficients (N_c and N_γ) were influenced by the scaling effect. The results of horizontal cyclic loading tests showed that the trend of increase in capacity was substantially related to the source of nonlinearity and it varied by changing F.S_v. Stiffness degradation was found to occur in the final cycles of loading. The results indicated that the moment capacity and damping ratio of the system in models with lower F.S_v values depended on soil specifications such cohesiveness or non-cohesiveness and were not just a function of F.S_v.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• 제64권5호
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• pp.911-921
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• 2022

Maximum residue limits (MRL) for pesticides in feed have been set to protect public health and produce safe livestock products. In vivo experiments to establish MRL are essential, as livestock are commonly used to obtain reliable in vivo quantitative information. Here, we aimed to evaluate whether small laboratory animals can replace or reduce monogastric livestock in experiments to quantify pesticide residues in vivo after oral consumption through feed. First, 24 pigs and rats were randomly assigned to four groups and fed 0, 3, 9, or 30 mg/kg of sulfoxaflor. After four weeks, serum, muscle, fat, liver, kidney, and small intestine samples were collected, and sulfoxaflor residues were analyzed using liquid chromatography - tandem mass spectrometry. Sulfoxaflor residues in pig tissues were significantly correlated with those in rat tissues. Model equations were formulated based on the residual sulfoxaflor amount in pig and rat tissues. The calculated and measured sulfoxaflor residues in pigs and rats showed more than 90% similarity. Sulfoxaflor did not affect body weight gain, feed intake, or the feed conversion ratio. Therefore, we concluded that pesticide residue quantification in vivo to establish MRL could be performed using small laboratory animals instead of livestock animals. This would contribute to obtaining in vivo pesticide residue information and reducing large-scale livestock animal experiments.

• 한국환경농학회지
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.276-281
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• 2022

BACKGROUND: Plastics that are used in our daily lives largely end up in the environment. In agricultural environments, plastic wastes and microplastics can be found due to the uses and improper management of plastic products (e.g., vinyl greenhouses and mulching vinyl). Microplastics can also interact with contaminants in the agricultural environment. Therefore, this study was set to investigate the sorption characteristics of tetracycline, one of widely used antibiotics, on microplastics. METHODS AND RESULTS: The sorption tests were carried out with the tetracycline solutions (0-30 mg L^-1) and microplastic films prepared from low density polyethylene (LDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The residual tetracycline concentrations were analyzed and fitted to the Freundlich and Langmuir isotherm models. The tetracycline sorption patterns on LDPE and PVC films were described better with the Freundlich isotherm model than the Langmuir isotherm model. The isotherm model parameters suggested that the maximum sorption amount of tetracyline was greater for PVC, while the sorption affinity was greater for LDPE. CONCLUSION(S): Different types of microplastics can have different sorption characteristics of tetracycline. Therefore, there is a need for continuous research on the interaction of various types and shapes of microplastics and contaminants in the environment.