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An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for The Demand and Supply of Labor force (노동력수급의 요인분석과 전망)

  • 김중수
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run produc- tion function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated. In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population. Some major findings arc summarized as follows. (1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 2O~24 groups and females aged 14∼19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups. (2) Except for females aged 20∼24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups. (3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations (4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (6O and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes. (5)The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absord labor force has been declining;that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreasre over time. In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime- age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20∼24 and 25∼34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25∼34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20∼24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifi- cally, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995). In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.

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A Study of material analysis and its experimentation of metamorphosis and its utilities in Copper Alloy plates for contemporary metal craft (현대금속공예용 동합금판의 재료분석과 형질변환 실험 및 응용에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Ock-Soo
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2004
  • In this research, the copper alloy plates C2200, C5210, C7701, C8113 were selected to make datum and to identify further usage of metal craft experimentation. For its experimentation, the general welding and TIG welding methods were researched; for 2nd experimentation, the Reticulation and Electroforming skill's differences in color and temperature were researched. With these methods 3 different kinds of works are introduced for sample studies. For this research, Dr. Lee, Dong-Woo who works in Poongsan Metal Co, supported 4 kinds of copper alloy metals. Which are Commercial bronze (Cu-Zn), Deoxidiged Copper(Cu-Sn-P), Nickel Silver (Cu-Ni-Zn), and White Bronze (Cu-Ni); they were applied partly and wholly by the method of Laminatin, Reticulation, Fusing, and Electroforming skills. In case of C2200, the brass, the A. C. TIG welding method is better under 2mm slight plate; the D.C. TIG welding is better upper 2mm plate; and 250~300$^{\circ}C$ is recommended for remain heat treatment. In case of C5210, not having Hydrogen in high temperature return period, doesn't need Oxygen in high temperature and hardening in comparative high temperature neither, it is good for welding. It contains Sn 2-9% ad P 0.03-0.4% generally; and in accordance with the growth rate of Sn contain amount, the harden temperature boundary become broad. In case of cold moment after welding, they are recommended that higher speed TIG welding, smaller melting site and less than 200$^{\circ}C$ for pre-heating temperature. In case of C7701, the 10-20% Ni, 15-30% Zn are widely used.. If it is upper 30% Zn, it become (${\alpha}+{\beta}$) system and adhesive power rate become lower, and the productivity become lower in low temperature but the productivity become higher in high temperature. Nickel Silver's resistance of electricity is well; and the heatproof and incorrodibility is good, too. Lastly, in case of C8113, good at persistence in salty and grind; high in strength of high temperature. In case of white brass, contain 10-30% Nickel and hardened in high temperature and become single phrase. For these reason, the crystallization particles easily become large, if the resistance become higher small amount of Pb, P, S separation rate become higher.

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Legal and Regulatory Issues in Genetic Information Discrimination - Focusing on Overseas Regulatory Trends and Domestic Implications - (유전정보 차별금지의 법적문제 - 외국의 규율 동향과 그 시사점을 중심으로 -)

  • Yang, Ji Hyun;Kim, So Yoon
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.237-264
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    • 2017
  • With the onset of the Human Genome Project, social concerns about 'genetic information discrimination' have been raised, but the problem has not yet been highlighted in Korea. However, non-medical institutions' genetic testing which is related to disease prevention could be partially allowed under the revised "Bioethics and Safety Act" from June 30, 2016. In the case of one domestic insurance company, DTC genetic testing was provided for the new customer of cancer insurance as a complimentary service, which made the social changes related to the recognition of the genetic testing. At a time when precision medicine is becoming a new standard for medical care, discipline on genetic information discrimination has become a problem that can not be delayed anymore. Article 46 and 67 of the Bioethics Act stipulate the prohibition of discrimination on grounds of genetic information and penalties for its violation. However, these broad principles alone can not solve the problems in specific genetic information utilization areas such as insurance and employment. The United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany have different regulations that prohibit genetic information based discrimination. In the United States, Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act takes a form that adds to the existing law about the prohibition of genetic information discrimination. In addition, the range of genetic information includes the results of genetic tests of individuals and their families, including "family history". Canada has recently enacted legislation in 2017, expanding coverage to general transactions of goods or services in addition to insurance and employment. The United Kingdom deals only with 'predictive genetic testing results of individuals'. In the case of insurance, the UK government and Association of British Insurers (ABI) agree to abide by a policy framework ('Concordat') for cooperation that provides that insurers' use of genetic information is transparent, fair and subject to regular reviews; and remain committed to the voluntary Moratorium on insurers' use of predictive genetic test results until 1 November 2019, and a review of the Concordat in 2016. In the case of employment, The ICO's 'Employment Practices Code (2011)' is used as a guideline. In Germany, Human Genetic Examination Act(Gesetz ${\ddot{u}}ber$ genetische Untersuchungen bei Menschen) stipulates a principle ban on the demand for genetic testing and the submission of results in employment and insurance. The evaluation of the effectiveness of regulatory framework, as well as the form and scope of the discipline is different from country to country. In light of this, it would be desirable for the issue of genetic information discrimination in Korea to be addressed based on the review of related regulations, the participation of experts, and the cooperation of stakeholders.

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Radiation Therapy of Intracranial Germinoma (두개강내 배아종의 방사선 치료)

  • Nho Young Ju;Chang Hyesook;Choi Eun Kyung;Kim Jong Hoon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.207-213
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    • 1997
  • Purpose : Intracranial germinoma is the most radiocurable tumor of theprimary intracranial neoplasm. But, the optimum radiation dose and target volume remain controversial In this retrospective study, we analysed the spreading pattern at presentation and the pattern of the failure and survival of intracranial germinoma, Materials and Methods : From 1989 to 1996, 23 Patients were treated for intracranial germinoma at Department of Radiation Oncology, Twenty-one Patients were treated at their initial Presentation and 2 Patients were treated for recurrent disease. Six patients had multiple tumor masses on MRI and 7patients had ventricular seeding on MRI. The examination of cerebrospinal fluid cytology was done in 15 patients and 3 out of 15 patients had positive cerebrospinal cytology. In tumor marker study of $\alpha-FP\;and\;\beta-hCG$, 6 patients had mildly elevated $\beta-hCG$ in serum or cerebrospinal fluid. Twentyone Patients were treated with whole craniospinal axis irradiation and 2 Patients were given whole ventricular radiation therapy. The total dose was ranged between 4500cGy and 5600cGy to primary tumor site (median 5580cGy) Dose to the entire ventricular system ranged from 1980cGy to 3960 cGy (median 2700cGy) and dose to the spinal axis ranged from 2160cGy to 3900cGy (median 2700cGy) Results : Of 23 patients, 21 Patients are alive without evidence of diseasefor median 4 years follow-up. One Patient who had markedly elevated $\alpha-FP\;and\;\beta-hCG$, suffered from Persistent disease after radiation therapy and received 2 cycles of chemotherapy. She died 9 months after chemotherapy One patient who developed ventricular seeding after gamma-knife was treated with whole craniospinal irradiation, he died after 1 year due to probably brain necrosis. The hematologic toxicity of 3 or 4 grade were seen in 7 patients and patient's endocrinologic dysfunction was not deteriorated after radiation therapy. One patient had been treated with growth hormone replacement due to short stature. Conclusions : This retrospective study has confirmed the excellent result of radiation therapy in intracranial germinoma. The complication rate during or after radiation therapy is considered within acceptable range. ft is necessary to further investigate the optimal dose and treatment volume of radiation therapy. The role of chemotherapy in the treatment of intracranial germinoma should be further investigated.

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Gastrointestinal Complications after Lung Transplantation (폐이식 후 발생한 소화기계 합병증)

  • Haam, Seok-Jin;Paik, Hyo-Chae;Kim, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Doo-Yun;Kim, Chang-Wan;Kim, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.280-284
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    • 2010
  • Background: The postoperative management following lung transplantation has dramatically improved in the recent decade. However, some complications still remain as troublesome problems. We retrospectively reviewed the gastrointestinal complications and their management after lung transplantation. Material and Method: We performed a retrospective review of the medical records of 25 cases in 23 patients who underwent lung and heart-lung transplantations from July 1996 to March 2009. The definition of gastrointestinal complication was the gastrointestinal tract-related disease that occurred after lung transplantation. There were eight postoperative deaths (within postoperative 30 days) that were excluded from the analysis. Result: Twenty three gastrointestinal complications occurred in 11 (64.7%) of the 17 cases. The median follow-up period was 6.9 months (range: 2 months to 111 months), and chronic gastritis (23.5%, 4 of 17 cases) was the most common complication. Severe, prolonged (more than 2 weeks) diarrhea occurred in 3 cases. Three patients had gastric ulcer with one case requiring gastric primary closure for gastric ulcer perforation. This patient had gastric bleeding due to recurrent gastric ulcer 2 months after laparotomy. Cytomegalovirus gastritis and esophagitis occurred in 2 cases and 1 case, respectively, and esophageal ulcer occurred in 2 cases. There were esophageal strictures in 2 patients who underwent esophageal stent insertion. Other complications were one case each of ileus, early gastric cancer requiring endoscopic mucosal resection, gall bladder stone accompanied with jaundice, and pseudomembranous colitis. Conclusion: The incidence of gastrointestinal complication is relatively high in patients after they undergo lung transplantation. Since gastrointestinal complications can induce malnutrition, which might be related to considerable morbidity and mortality, close follow-up is necessary for the early detection and proper management of gastrointestinal complications.

Comparison of Inhalation Scan and Perfusion Scan for the Prediction of Postoperative Pulmonary Function (수술후 폐기능 변화의 예측에 대한 연무 흡입스캔과 관류스캔의 비교)

  • Cheon, Young-Kug;Kwak, Young-Im;Yun, Jong-Gil;Zo, Jae-Ill;Shim, Young-Mog;Lim, Sang-Moo;Hong, Sung-Woon;Lee, Choon-Taek
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 1994
  • Background: Because of the common etiologic factor, such as smoking, lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are often present in the same patient. The preoperative prediction of remaining pulmonary function after the resectional surgery is very important to prevent serious complication and postoperative respiratory failure. $^{99m}Tc$-MAA perfusion scan has been used for the prediction of postoperative pulmonary function, but it may be inaccurate in case of large V/Q mismatching. We compared $^{99m}Tc$-DTPA radioaerosol inhalation scan with $^{99m}Tc$-MAA perfusion scan in predicting postoperative lung function. Method: Preoperative inhalation scan and/or perfusion scan were performed and pulmonary function test were performed preoperatively and 2 month after operation. We predicted the postoperative pulmonary functions using the following equations. Postpneurnonectomy $FEV_1$=Preop $FEV_1x%$ of total function of lung to remain Postlobectomy $FEV_1$=Preop $FEV_1{\times}$(% of total 1-function of affected lung${\times}$$\frac{Number\;of\;segments\;to\;be\;resected}{Number\;of\;segments\;of\;affected\;lung})$ Results: 1) The inhalation scan showed good correlations between measured and predicted $FEV_1$, FVC and $FEF_{25-75%}$. (correlation coefficiency; 0.94, 0.91, 0.87 respectively). 2) The perfusion scan also showed good correlations between measured and predicted $FEV_1$, FVC and $FEF_{25-75%}$. (correlation coefficiency; 0.86, 0.72, 0.87 respectively). 3) Among three parameters, $FEV_1$ showed the best correlations in the prediction by lung scans. 4) Comparison between inhalation scan and perfusion scan in predicting pulmonary function did not show any significant differneces except FVC. Conclusion: The inhalation scan and perfusion scan are very useful in the prediction of postoperative lung function and don't make a difference in the prediction of pulmonary function a1though the former showed a better correlation in FVC.

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Analysis of Prognositic Factors and Long-tenn Survival According to the Pattern of Lymph Node Metastasis in Surgically Resected N2 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer(NSCLC) (N2 병기의 비소세포성 폐암 수술 후 림프절 전이 양태에 따른 생존율 비교 및 예후 인자 분석)

  • Chung, Kyung-Young;Kim, Si-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.474-485
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    • 2000
  • Background : Current studies on multimodal strategy for N2 non-small cell lung cancer are being high interest, have drawn much attention. N2 lung cancer, however, is composed of is divided into several sub groups with that have different prognoses. The prognostic factors still remain controversial. Methods : Between January 1990 and June 1999, 180 patients with N2 lung cancer who underwent surgical resection were investigated, excluding 10 of these for surgical mortality. All patients underwent mediastinal lymph node dissection. 20 clinicopathologic factors were investigated by univariable and multivariable analyses to identify significant prognostic factors among resected N2 disease. Results : The overall 5-year survival rate was 20.6%. Multivariable analyses among overall patients revealed 3 significant prognostic factors : Age, Histologic type, Vascular invasion. Based on the result, 49 patients with both age more than 60 and pathologic Non-squamous cell showed a 5-year survival of 5.0%, whereas 37 patients with neither of the factors showed a 5-year survival of 56.6%(p<0.001). And 12 patients with both vascular invasion and pathologic Non-squamous cell showed a 5-year survival of 11.9%, whereas 67 patients with neither of the factors showed a 5-year survival of 33.6%(p=0.01). Conclusion : The prognosis of surgically resected N2 disease varies according to the 3 significant prognosis factors. Tumor size may be an additional influencing factor in the prognosis of N2 disease.

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Incidence of Malignancy and Its Predictive Factors in Intrapulmonary Nodules Associated with cT1-2N0M0 Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (임상적 병기 T1-2N0M0인 비소세포폐암에 동반된 폐결절의 악성여부 및 그 예측인자)

  • Yoon, Ho Il;Yim, Jae-Jun;Lee, Choon-Taek;Kim, Young Whan;Han, Sung Koo;Shim, Young-Soo;Yoo, Chul-Gyu
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2004
  • Background : When a non small cell lung caner patient at the $_cT_{1-2}N_0M_0$ stage is diagnosed with intrapulmonary nodule(s), the treatment plan and prognosis of the patient largely depend on whether the nodule is benign or malignant. In most cases, however, it is hard to conduct a biopsy on such a nodule, due to its small size. Furthermore, the predictive factors that may imply benignancy or malignancy of the nodules remain unknown. As such, the purpose of our study was to validate the incidence of malignant nodules in such cases, and find if there are any predictive factors. Methods : Chest computed tomography(CT) scans and the medical records of 444 patients, who had undergone non small cell lung cancer surgery, between July, 2001 and September, 2003, at Seoul National University Hospital, were retrospectively reviewed. Among $_cT_{1-2}N_0M_0$ non small cell lung cancer patients, with intrapulmonary nodule(s), only those cases where a CT scan or a biopsy of the nodules had been conducted, and had been followed up at intervals of more than 6 months were included. However, patients who had received chemotherapy or radiation therapy, pre- or post-operatively, or with calcified nodules, were excluded. Results : Our study group consisted of 39 patients, divided into two groups. The first group, 33 patients, had benign nodules, and the second group, 6 patients, had malignant nodules. The two groups were compared with regard to gender, age, cell type, pathologic stage, shape, size, location and number of nodules and presence of calcification around the nodules. There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups. Conclusion : The intrapulmonary nodules in non small cell lung cancer patients at the $_cT_{1-2}N_0M_0$ stage were mostly benign. Therefore, surgical treatment for such patients can be considered. Moreover, without predictive factors, pathological confirmation of the diagnosed nodules should be sought in all patients.

Risk Analysis of Household Debt in Korea: Using Micro CB Data (개인CB 자료를 이용한 우리나라 가계의 부채상환위험 분석)

  • Hahm, Joon-Ho;Kim, Jung In;Lee, Young Sook
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data.

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The Problem of Space Debris and the Environmental Protection in Outer Space Law (우주폐기물과 지구 및 우주환경의 보호)

  • Lee, Young Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.205-237
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    • 2014
  • Last 50 years there were a lot of space subjects launched by space activities of many states and these activities also had created tremendous, significant space debris contaminating the environment of outer space. The large number of space debris which are surrounding the earth have the serious possibilities of destroying a satellite or causing huge threat to the space vehicles. For example, Chinese anti-satellite missile test was conducted by China on January 11, 2007. As a consequence a Chinese weather satellite was destroyed by a kinetic kill vehicle traveling with a speed of 8 km/s in the opposite direction. Anti-satellite missile tests like this,contribute to the formation of enormous orbital space debris which can remain in orbit for many years and could interfere with future space activity (Kessler Syndrome). The test is the largest recorded creation of space debris in history with at least 2,317 pieces of trackable size (golf ball size and larger) and an estimated 150,000 debris particles and more. Several nations responded negatively to the test and highlighted the serious consequences of engaging in the militarization of space. The timing and occasion aroused the suspicion of its demonstration of anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities following the Chinese test of an ASAT system in 2007 destroying a satellite but creating significant space debris. Therefore this breakup seemed to serve as a momentum of the UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines and the background of the EU initiatives for the International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. The UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines thus adopted contain many technical elements that all the States involved in the outer space activities are expected to observe to produce least space debris from the moment of design of their launchers and satellites until the end of satellite life. Although the norms are on the voluntary basis which is normal in the current international space law environment where any attempt to formulate binding international rules has to face opposition and sometimes unnecessary screening from many corners of numerous countries. Nevertheless, because of common concerns of space-faring countries, the Guidelines could be adopted smoothly and are believed faithfully followed by most countries. It is a rare success story of international cooperation in the area of outer space. The EU has proposed an International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities as a transparency and confidence-building measure. It is designed to enhance the safety, security and sustainability of activities in outer space. The purpose of the Code to reduce the space debris, to allow exchange of the information on the space activities, and to protect the space objects through safety and security. Of the space issues, the space debris reduction and the space traffic management require some urgent attention. But the current legal instruments of the outer space do not have any binding rules to be applied thereto despite the incresing activities on the outer space. We need to start somewhere sometime soon before it's too late with the chaotic situation. In this article, with a view point of this problem, focused on the the Chinese test of an ASAT system in 2007 destroying a satellite but creating significant space debris and tried to analyse the issues of space debris reduction.