• Title/Summary/Keyword: reliability estimation

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A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

Estimation of Fresh Weight and Leaf Area Index of Soybean (Glycine max) Using Multi-year Spectral Data (다년도 분광 데이터를 이용한 콩의 생체중, 엽면적 지수 추정)

  • Jang, Si-Hyeong;Ryu, Chan-Seok;Kang, Ye-Seong;Park, Jun-Woo;Kim, Tae-Yang;Kang, Kyung-Suk;Park, Min-Jun;Baek, Hyun-Chan;Park, Yu-hyeon;Kang, Dong-woo;Zou, Kunyan;Kim, Min-Cheol;Kwon, Yeon-Ju;Han, Seung-ah;Jun, Tae-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.329-339
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    • 2021
  • Soybeans (Glycine max), one of major upland crops, require precise management of environmental conditions, such as temperature, water, and soil, during cultivation since they are sensitive to environmental changes. Application of spectral technologies that measure the physiological state of crops remotely has great potential for improving quality and productivity of the soybean by estimating yields, physiological stresses, and diseases. In this study, we developed and validated a soybean growth prediction model using multispectral imagery. We conducted a linear regression analysis between vegetation indices and soybean growth data (fresh weight and LAI) obtained at Miryang fields. The linear regression model was validated at Goesan fields. It was found that the model based on green ratio vegetation index (GRVI) had the greatest performance in prediction of fresh weight at the calibration stage (R2=0.74, RMSE=246 g/m2, RE=34.2%). In the validation stage, RMSE and RE of the model were 392 g/m2 and 32%, respectively. The errors of the model differed by cropping system, For example, RMSE and RE of model in single crop fields were 315 g/m2 and 26%, respectively. On the other hand, the model had greater values of RMSE (381 g/m2) and RE (31%) in double crop fields. As a result of developing models for predicting a fresh weight into two years (2018+2020) with similar accumulated temperature (AT) in three years and a single year (2019) that was different from that AT, the prediction performance of a single year model was better than a two years model. Consequently, compared with those models divided by AT and a three years model, RMSE of a single crop fields were improved by about 29.1%. However, those of double crop fields decreased by about 19.6%. When environmental factors are used along with, spectral data, the reliability of soybean growth prediction can be achieved various environmental conditions.