• Title/Summary/Keyword: reduced sample size

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Determinants of Consumer Preference by type of Accommodation: Two Step Cluster Analysis (이단계 군집분석에 의한 농촌관광 편의시설 유형별 소비자 선호 결정요인)

  • Park, Duk-Byeong;Yoon, Yoo-Shik;Lee, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2007
  • 1. Purpose Rural tourism is made by individuals with different characteristics, needs and wants. It is important to have information on the characteristics and preferences of the consumers of the different types of existing rural accommodation. The stud aims to identify the determinants of consumer preference by type of accommodations. 2. Methodology 2.1 Sample Data were collected from 1000 people by telephone survey with three-stage stratified random sampling in seven metropolitan areas in Korea. Respondents were chosen by sampling internal on telephone book published in 2006. We surveyed from four to ten-thirty 0'clock afternoon so as to systematic sampling considering respondents' life cycle. 2.2 Two-step cluster Analysis Our study is accomplished through the use of a two-step cluster method to classify the accommodation in a reduced number of groups, so that each group constitutes a type. This method had been suggested as appropriate in clustering large data sets with mixed attributes. The method is based on a distance measure that enables data with both continuous and categorical attributes to be clustered. This is derived from a probabilistic model in which the distance between two clusters in equivalent to the decrease in log-likelihood function as a result of merging. 2.3 Multinomial Logit Analysis The estimation of a Multionmial Logit model determines the characteristics of tourist who is most likely to opt for each type of accommodation. The Multinomial Logit model constitutes an appropriate framework to explore and explain choice process where the choice set consists of more than two alternatives. Due to its ease and quick estimation of parameters, the Multinomial Logit model has been used for many empirical studies of choice in tourism. 3. Findings The auto-clustering algorithm indicated that a five-cluster solution was the best model, because it minimized the BIC value and the change in them between adjacent numbers of clusters. The accommodation establishments can be classified into five types: Traditional House, Typical Farmhouse, Farmstay house for group Tour, Log Cabin for Family, and Log Cabin for Individuals. Group 1 (Traditional House) includes mainly the large accommodation establishments, i.e. those with ondoll style room providing meals and one shower room on family tourist, of original construction style house. Group 2 (Typical Farmhouse) encompasses accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms and each bathroom providing meals. It includes, in other words, the tourist accommodations Known as "rural houses." Group 3 (Farmstay House for Group) has accommodation establishments of Ondoll rooms not providing meals and self cooking facilities, large room size over five persons. Group 4 (Log Cabin for Family) includes mainly the popular accommodation establishments, i.e. those with Ondoll style room with on shower room on family tourist, of western styled log house. While the accommodations in this group are not defined as regards type of construction, the group does include all the original Korean style construction, Finally, group 5 (Log Cabin for Individuals)includes those accommodations that are bedroom western styled wooden house with each bathroom. First Multinomial Logit model is estimated including all the explicative variables considered and taking accommodation group 2 as base alternative. The results show that the variables and the estimated values of the parameters for the model giving the probability of each of the five different types of accommodation available in rural tourism village in Korea, according to the socio-economic and trip related characteristics of the individuals. An initial observation of the analysis reveals that none of variables income, the number of journey, distance, and residential style of house is explicative in the choice of rural accommodation. The age and accompany variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 1. The education and rural residential experience variables are significant for accommodation establishment of groups 4 and 5. The expenditure and marital status variables are significant for accommodation establishment of group 4. The gender and occupation variable are significant for accommodation establishment of group 3. The loyalty variable is significant for accommodation establishment of groups 3 and 4. The study indicates that significant differences exist among the individuals who choose each type of accommodation at a destination. From this investigation is evident that several profiles of tourists can be attracted by a rural destination according to the types of existing accommodations at this destination. Besides, the tourist profiles may be used as the basis for investment policy and promotion for each type of accommodation, making use in each case of the variables that indicate a greater likelihood of influencing the tourist choice of accommodation.

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An Intelligent Intrusion Detection Model Based on Support Vector Machines and the Classification Threshold Optimization for Considering the Asymmetric Error Cost (비대칭 오류비용을 고려한 분류기준값 최적화와 SVM에 기반한 지능형 침입탐지모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.157-173
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    • 2011
  • As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.

Stellite bearings for liquid Zn-/Al-Systems with advanced chemical and physical properties by Mechanical Alloying and Standard-PM-Route

  • Zoz, H.;Benz, H.U.;Huettebraeucker, K.;Furken, L.;Ren, H.;Reichardt, R.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Powder Metallurgy Institute Conference
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    • 2000.04a
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    • pp.9-10
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    • 2000
  • An important business-field of world-wide steel-industry is the coating of thin metal-sheets with zinc, zinc-aluminum and aluminum based materials. These products mostly go into automotive industry. in particular for the car-body. into building and construction industry as well as household appliances. Due to mass-production, the processing is done in large continuously operating plants where the mostly cold-rolled metal-strip as the substrate is handled in coils up to 40 tons unwind before and rolled up again after passing the processing plant which includes cleaning, annealing, hot-dip galvanizing / aluminizing and chemical treatment. In the liquid Zn, Zn-AI, AI-Zn and AI-Si bathes a combined action of corrosion and wear under high temperature and high stress onto the transfer components (rolls) accounts for major economic losses. Most critical here are the bearing systems of these rolls operating in the liquid system. Rolls in liquid system can not be avoided as they are needed to transfer the steel-strip into and out of the crucible. Since several years, ceramic roller bearings are tested here [1.2], however, in particular due to uncontrollable Slag-impurities within the hot bath [3], slide bearings are still expected to be of a higher potential [4]. The today's state of the art is the application of slide bearings based on Stellite\ulcorneragainst Stellite which is in general a 50-60 wt% Co-matrix with incorporated Cr- and W-carbides and other composites. Indeed Stellite is used as the bearing-material as of it's chemical properties (does not go into solution), the physical properties in particular with poor lubricating properties are not satisfying at all. To increase the Sliding behavior in the bearing system, about 0.15-0.2 wt% of lead has been added into the hot-bath in the past. Due to environmental regulations. this had to be reduced dramatically_ This together with the heavily increasing production rates expressed by increased velocity of the substrate-steel-band up to 200 m/min and increased tractate power up to 10 tons in modern plants. leads to life times of the bearings of a few up to several days only. To improve this situation. the Mechanical Alloying (MA) TeChnique [5.6.7.8] is used to prOduce advanced Stellite-based bearing materials. A lubricating phase is introduced into Stellite-powder-material by MA, the composite-powder-particles are coated by High Energy Milling (HEM) in order to produce bearing-bushes of approximately 12 kg by Sintering, Liquid Phase Sintering (LPS) and Hot Isostatic Pressing (HIP). The chemical and physical behavior of samples as well as the bearing systems in the hot galvanizing / aluminizing plant are discussed. DependenCies like lubricant material and composite, LPS-binder and composite, particle shape and PM-route with respect to achievable density. (temperature--) shock-reSistibility and corrosive-wear behavior will be described. The materials are characterized by particle size analysis (laser diffraction), scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction. corrosive-wear behavior is determined using a special cylinder-in-bush apparatus (CIBA) as well as field-test in real production condition. Part I of this work describes the initial testing phase where different sample materials are produced, characterized, consolidated and tested in the CIBA under a common AI-Zn-system. The results are discussed and the material-system for the large components to be produced for the field test in real production condition is decided. Outlook: Part II of this work will describe the field test in a hot-dip-galvanizing/aluminizing plant of the mechanically alloyed bearing bushes under aluminum-rich liquid metal. Alter testing, the bushes will be characterized and obtained results with respect to wear. expected lifetime, surface roughness and infiltration will be discussed. Part III of this project will describe a second initial testing phase where the won results of part 1+11 will be transferred to the AI-Si system. Part IV of this project will describe the field test in a hot-dip-aluminizing plant of the mechanically alloyed bearing bushes under aluminum liquid metal. After testing. the bushes will be characterized and obtained results with respect to wear. expected lifetime, surface roughness and infiltration will be discussed.

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Estimation of TROPOMI-derived Ground-level SO2 Concentrations Using Machine Learning Over East Asia (기계학습을 활용한 동아시아 지역의 TROPOMI 기반 SO2 지상농도 추정)

  • Choi, Hyunyoung;Kang, Yoojin;Im, Jungho
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.275-290
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    • 2021
  • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the atmosphere is mainly generated from anthropogenic emission sources. It forms ultra-fine particulate matter through chemical reaction and has harmful effect on both the environment and human health. In particular, ground-level SO2 concentrations are closely related to human activities. Satellite observations such as TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument)-derived column density data can provide spatially continuous monitoring of ground-level SO2 concentrations. This study aims to propose a 2-step residual corrected model to estimate ground-level SO2 concentrations through the synergistic use of satellite data and numerical model output. Random forest machine learning was adopted in the 2-step residual corrected model. The proposed model was evaluated through three cross-validations (i.e., random, spatial and temporal). The results showed that the model produced slopes of 1.14-1.25, R values of 0.55-0.65, and relative root-mean-square-error of 58-63%, which were improved by 10% for slopes and 3% for R and rRMSE when compared to the model without residual correction. The model performance by country was slightly reduced in Japan, often resulting in overestimation, where the sample size was small, and the concentration level was relatively low. The spatial and temporal distributions of SO2 produced by the model agreed with those of the in-situ measurements, especially over Yangtze River Delta in China and Seoul Metropolitan Area in South Korea, which are highly dependent on the characteristics of anthropogenic emission sources. The model proposed in this study can be used for long-term monitoring of ground-level SO2 concentrations on both the spatial and temporal domains.