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Comparison of forecasting performance of time series models for the wholesale price of dried red peppers: focused on ARX and EGARCH

  • Lee, Hyungyoug;Hong, Seungjee;Yeo, Minsu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.859-870
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    • 2018
  • Dried red peppers are a staple agricultural product used in Korean cuisine and as such, are an important aspect of agricultural producers' income. Correctly forecasting both their supply and demand situations and price is very important in terms of the producers' income and consumer price stability. The primary objective of this study was to compare the performance of time series forecasting models for dried red peppers in Korea. In this study, three models (an autoregressive model with exogenous variables [ARX], AR-exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity [EGARCH], and ARX-EGARCH) are presented for forecasting the wholesale price of dried red peppers. As a result of the analysis, it was shown that the ARX model and ARX-EGARCH model, each of which adopt both the rolling window and the adding approach and use the agricultural cooperatives price as the exogenous variable, showed a better forecasting performance compared to the autoregressive model (AR)-EGARCH model. Based on the estimation methods and results, there was no significant difference in the accuracy of the estimation between the rolling window and adding approach. In the case of dried red peppers, there is limitation in building the price forecasting models with a market-structured approach. In this regard, estimating a forecasting model using only price data and identifying the forecast performance can be expected to complement the current pricing forecast model which relies on market shipments.

Measuring the Factor Influencing Tourist Preferences for Leaf Mustard Kimchi (관광객의 갓김치에 대한 선호도에 미치는 영향요인 평가)

  • Jeong, Hang-Jin;Kang, Jong-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.414-419
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to measure the factor influencing tourist preferences for leaf mustard iimchi. Among 250 questionnaires, 230 questionnaires were utilized for the analysis. Frequencies, conjoint model, max. utility model, BTL model, Logit model, K-means cluster analysis, and one-way ANOVA analysis were used for this study. The findings from this study were as follows. First, the Pearson's R and Kendall's tau statistics showed that the model fitted the data well. Second, it was found that total respondents and three clusters regarded taste and price as the very important factor. Third, it was found that the first cluster most preferred product with light red color, plain package, and mild taste sold at a cheap price in factory. The second cluster most preferred product with light red color, plain package, and moderately pungent taste sold at a expensive price in factory. The third cluster most preferred product with dark red color, shaped package, and highly pungent taste sold at a cheap price in factory. Fourth, it was found that the first cluster most preferred simulation product with light red color, shaped package, and mild taste sold at a cheap price in factory. The second cluster most preferred simulation product with light red color, shaped package, and moderately pungent taste sold at a cheap price in factory. The third clutter most preferred simulation product with dark red color, shaped package, and highly pungent taste sold at a cheap price in factory.

Effect of Allium cepa (red) and Angelica gigas Nakai on Hair-growth Promotion in C57BL/6 Mice (C57BL/6 마우스에서 모발성장 촉진에 대한 Allium cepa (red)와 Angelica gigas Nakai의 효과)

  • Lee, Jin Young;Dong, Jae Kyung;Kang, Jae Seon
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.30 no.11
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    • pp.990-998
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to evaluate the hair-growth promotion effect in C57BL/6 mice of a new substance mixed with Allium cepa (red)-bioconversion extract and Angelica gigas Nakai. The ethanol extract of Allium cepa (red) was bioconverted through the use of the Bacillus subtilis KJ-3 (BS3) strain, which was named Red-BCQ. The quercetin content of Red-BCQ increased by about 7.4-fold after bioconversion. Angelica gigas Nakai extract (Agnex) contains a large amount of coumarins such as decursin (D) and decursinol angelate (DA). A 1 mg portion of Agnex contained 0.4146 mg of D and 0.3659 mg of DA. Minoxidil has been known to promote hair growth. In this study, the hair-growth promotion effects of Red-BCQ, Agnex, and a mixture of both Red-BCQ and Agnex were compared with 5% minoxidil. Twenty-five mice were divided into five experimental groups including saline (CON), 5% minoxidil (PCON), Red-BCQ (RA), Agnex (AG), and a Red-BCQ-Agnex mixture (RAG)-treated group. Samples were administered orally once a day at a fixed time for 4 weeks. Hair growth was monitored by photograph at 7, 14, 21, and 28 days. We also observed 5α-reductase, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (γ-GT), insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1, transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1, antioxidant enzyme, and the hair follicles of the skin tissue. In all the results, the RAG-administered group showed greater antioxidative and hair-growth promotion effects than the other groups. These data suggest that RAG has potent stimulating activity on hair growth in C57BL/6 mice.

Isotherm, Kinetic and Thermodynamic Characteristics for Adsorption of Congo Red by Activated Carbon (활성탄에 의한 Congo Red의 흡착에 대한 등온선, 동력학 및 열역학적 특성)

  • Lee, Jong Jib
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.64-70
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    • 2015
  • Batch experiment studies were carried out for adsorption of congo red using granular activated carbon with various parameters such as activated carbon dose, pH, initial dye concentration, temperature and contact time. Equilibrium experimental data are fitted to the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin and Dubin-Radushkevich isotherm equations. From Freundlich's separation factor (1/n) estimated, adsorption could be employed as effective treatment method for adsorption of congo red from aqueous solution. Base on Temkin constant (B) and Dubinin-Radushkevich constant (E), this adsorption process is physical adsorption. Adsorption kinetics has been tested using pseudo-first order and pseudo second order models. The results followed pseudo second order model with good correlation. Adsorption process of congo red on granular activated carbon was endothermic (${\Delta}H$=42.036 kJ/mol) and was accompanied by decrease in Gibbs free energy (${\Delta}G$=-2.414 to -4.596 kJ/mol) with increasing adsorption temperature.

Relationship between Sea Surface Temperature derived from NOAA Satellites and Cochlodinium polykrikoides Red Tide occurrence in Korean Coastal Waters (NOAA 위성자료에 의한 해수표면 수온분포와 Cochlodinium polykrikoides 적조 발생의 상관성)

  • Suh, Young-Sang;Kim, Jeong-Hee;Kim, Hak-Gyoon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.215-221
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    • 2000
  • The relationship between the distribution of sea surface temperature(SST) and dinoflagellate(Cochlodinium polykrikoides) bloom areas were studied. The SST data were derived from the infrared channels of AVHRR(Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) sensor on NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) 12 and 14 satellites during 1995-1998. The initial water temperature at C. polykrikoides bloom was about 21${\circ}C$ at the coastal areas of the South Sea and along the shore of the East Sea of Korea during the summer season of 1995. The northern limit of red tides was coincident with that of 21${\circ}C$ isothermal line in the East Sea. The red tides that initially bloomed at the coast of Pohang on September 21, 1995 moved to the coast of Uljin on September 26, 1995. The skipped appearance of the red tides in the areas between Pohang and Uljin was due to the East Korean Warm Current, which was moving offshore from Pohang to approach to Uljin. The cold water which was formed by tidal front in the western coast of the South Sea and by upwelling water from deep layer in the southeastern coast of the Korean peninsula played a role in blocking the spreading of red tides during summer season in 1997 and 1998. In conclusion, the distribution of red tides appeared to be dependent on the initial water temperature at red tides bloom. The SST at the red tides varied from 21${\circ}C$ to 25${\circ}C$; 21${\circ}C$, 23${\circ}C$, 24 and 24-25${\circ}C$ in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998, respectively.

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A combination of red and processed meat intake and polygenic risk score influences the incidence of hyperuricemia in middle-aged Korean adults

  • Suyeon Lee;Dayeon Shin
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.721-745
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    • 2024
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The high consumption of purine-rich meat is associated with hyperuricemia. However, there is limited evidence linking the consumption of red and processed meat to the genetic risk of hyperuricemia. We investigated the relationship between various combinations of red and processed meat consumption and the polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and the incidence of hyperuricemia in middle-aged Koreans. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We analyzed the data from 44,053 participants aged ≥40 years sourced from the Health Examinees (HEXA) cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES). Information regarding red and processed meat intake was obtained using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (SQ-FFQ). We identified 69 independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at uric acid-related loci using genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and clumping analyses. The individual PRS, which is the weighted sum of the effect size of each allele at the SNP, was calculated. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for covariates to determine the relationship between red and processed meat intake and the PRS in the incidence of hyperuricemia. RESULTS: During an average follow-up period of 5 years, 2,556 patients with hyperuricemia were identified. For both men and women, the group with the highest red and processed meat intake and the highest PRS was positively associated with the development of hyperuricemia when compared with the group with the lowest red and processed meat intake and the lowest PRS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.10-3.53; P < 0.0001; HR, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.45-4.40; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Individuals at a high genetic risk for uric acid levels should moderate their consumption of red and processed meat to prevent hyperuricemia.

Correlation between Internet Search Query Data and the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service Data for Seasonality of Plantar Fasciitis (족저 근막염의 계절성에 대한 인터넷 검색어 데이터와 건강보험심사평가원 자료의 연관성)

  • Hwang, Seok Min;Lee, Geum Ho;Oh, Seung Yeol
    • Journal of Korean Foot and Ankle Society
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.126-132
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study examined whether there are seasonal variations in the number of plantar fasciitis cases from the database of the Korean Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service and an internet search of the volume data related to plantar fasciitis and whether there are correlations between variations. Materials and Methods: The number of plantar fasciitis cases per month was acquired from the Korean Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service from January 2016 to December 2019. The monthly internet relative search volumes for the keywords "plantar fasciitis" and "heel pain" were collected during the same period from DataLab, an internet search query trend service provided by the Korean portal website, Naver. Cosinor analysis was performed to confirm the seasonality of the monthly number of cases and relative search volumes, and Pearson and Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between them. Results: The number of cases with plantar fasciitis and the relative search volume for the keywords "plantar fasciitis" and "heel pain" all showed significant seasonality (p<0.001), with the highest in the summer and the lowest in the winter. The number of cases with plantar fasciitis was correlated significantly with the relative search volumes of the keywords "plantar fasciitis" (r=0.632; p<0.001) and "heel pain" (r=0.791; p<0.001), respectively. Conclusion: Both the number of cases with plantar fasciitis and the internet search data for related keywords showed seasonality, which was the highest in summer. The number of cases showed a significant correlation with the internet search data for the seasonality of plantar fasciitis. Internet big data could be a complementary resource for researching and monitoring plantar fasciitis.

Ichthyotoxic Cochlodinium polykrikoides red tides offshore in the South Sea, Korea in 2014: III. Metazooplankton and their grazing impacts on red-tide organisms and heterotrophic protists

  • Lee, Moo Joon;Jeong, Hae Jin;Kim, Jae Seong;Jang, Keon Kang;Kang, Nam Seon;Jang, Se Hyeon;Lee, Hak Bin;Lee, Sang Beom;Kim, Hyung Seop;Choi, Choong Hyeon
    • ALGAE
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.285-308
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    • 2017
  • Cochlodinium polykrikoides red tides have caused great economic losses in the aquaculture industry in many countries. To investigate the roles of metazooplankton in red tide dynamics of C. polykrikoides in the South Sea of Korea, the abundance of metazooplankton was measured at 60 stations over 1- or 2-week intervals from May to November 2014. In addition, the grazing impacts of dominant metazooplankton on red tide species and their potential heterotrophic protistan grazers were estimated by combining field data on the abundance of red tide species, heterotrophic protist grazers, and dominant metazooplankton with data obtained from the literature concerning ingestion rates of the grazers on red tide species and heterotrophic protists. The mean abundance of total metazooplankton at each sampling time during the study was 297-1,119 individuals $m^{-3}$. The abundance of total metazooplankton was significantly positively correlated with that of phototrophic dinoflagellates (p < 0.01), but it was not significantly correlated with water temperature, salinity, and the abundance of diatoms, euglenophytes, cryptophytes, heterotrophic dinoflagellates, tintinnid ciliates, and naked ciliates (p > 0.1). Thus, dinoflagellate red tides may support high abundance of total metazooplankton. Copepods dominated metazooplankton assemblages at all sampling times except from Jul 11 to Aug 6 when cladocerans and hydrozoans dominated. The calculated maximum grazing coefficients attributable to calanoid copepods on C. polykrikoides and Prorocentrum spp. were 0.018 and $0.029d^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, calanoid copepods may not control populations of C. polykrikoides or Prorocentrum spp. Furthermore, the maximum grazing coefficients attributable to calanoid copepods on the heterotrophic dinoflagellates Polykrikos spp. and Gyrodinium spp., which were grazers on C. polykrikoides and Prorocentrum spp., respectively, were 0.008 and $0.047d^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, calanoid copepods may not reduce grazing impact by these heterotrophic dinoflagellate grazers on populations of the red tide dinoflagellates.

Identification of Aspergillus sp. Isolated from Red-Ginseng and Effect of Preservative on Its Growth (홍삼에 분리한 Aspergillus sp.의 동정 및 식품보존료가 균의 성장에 미치는 영향)

  • 주종재;곽이성
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.203-207
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    • 1996
  • One kind of fungus was isolated and identified from comtaminated red-ginseng in order to give fundermental data for improving hygienic quality of ginseng product. The isolated strain was identified as Aspergillus sp. Hyphae of the strain had septum structrue. The strain showed vesicle and sterigmata structure which were typical characteristics of Aspergillus species. The growth of the strain was slightly inhibited by sodium benzoate and potassium sorbate at a concentration of 0.05%. The strain showed no growth at 4.0% potassium sorbate. The isolated stain Aspergillus sp. showed no significant degradation in the presence of red-ginseng saponins.

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In vitro Alternative Study of Phototoxitiy by Neutral Red Uptake Assay Using Human Fibroblast (사람유래의 섬유아세포 배양을 이용하여 NRU(neutral red uptake) 시험법에 의한 in vitro 광독성 대체시험연구)

  • 이종권;이은희;김형수;홍진태;류승렬;박기숙;김대병;김부영;조대현
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.77-82
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    • 2000
  • This study was conducted to assess a possible alternative method as replacements for in vivo test. The human fibroblasts were exposed to several photoxic chemicals (promethazine, neutral red, chlortetracyclone, amiodatone, bithional, 8-methyooxypsorale) and non-phototoxi substance, ammonium laureth sulfate and irradiatied with 5 J/$cm^2$ of UVA (3320~420nm). The cell viability was measured by NRU (neutral red uptake) assay. The photoxic potential of test chemicals in the NRU PT (phototoxicity test) was assessed by determining the PIF (photoirritancy Factor) by using a cut-off value of 5. The NRU PT responses of most chemicals showed a close agreement with in vivo response except bithinol. There was a relatively good agreement between in vitro NRU assay and in vivo data. These results suggest that NRU assay using fibroblast could be used to predict the phototoxicity.

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