• 제목/요약/키워드: receiver operating characteristic analysis

검색결과 371건 처리시간 0.039초

Prediction of Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis in Early Breast Cancer Using Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Diffusion-Weighted Imaging

  • Jeong, Eun Ha;Choi, Eun Jung;Choi, Hyemi;Park, Eun Hae;Song, Ji Soo
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate dynamic contrast-enhanced breast magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) variables, for axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis in the early stage of breast cancer. Materials and Methods: January 2011-April 2015, 787 patients with early stage of breast cancer were retrospectively reviewed. Only cases of invasive ductal carcinoma, were included in the patient population. Among them, 240 patients who underwent 3.0-T DCE-MRI, including DWI with b value 0 and $800s/mm^2$ were enrolled. MRI variables (adjacent vessel sign, whole-breast vascularity, initial enhancement pattern, quantitative kinetic parameters, signal enhancement ratio (SER), tumor apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), peritumoral ADC, and peritumor-tumor ADC ratio) clinico-pathologic variables (age, T stage, multifocality, extensive intraductal carcinoma component (EIC), estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER-2 status, Ki-67, molecular subtype, histologic grade, and nuclear grade) were compared between patients with axillary lymph node metastasis and those with no lymph node metastasis. Multivariate regression analysis was performed, to determine independent variables associated with ALN metastasis, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), for predicting ALN metastasis was analyzed, for those variables. Results: On breast MRI, moderate or prominent ipsilateral whole-breast vascularity (moderate, odds ratio [OR] 3.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28-9.51 vs. prominent, OR = 15.59, 95% CI 2.52-96.46), SER (OR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.59), and peritumor-tumor ADC ratio (OR = 6.77, 95% CI 2.41-18.99), were independently associated with ALN metastasis. Among clinico-pathologic variables, HER-2 positivity was independently associated, with ALN metastasis (OR = 23.71, 95% CI 10.50-53.54). The AUC for combining selected MRI variables and clinico-pathologic variables, was higher than that of clinico-pathologic variables (P < 0.05). Conclusion: SER, moderate or prominent increased whole breast vascularity, and peritumor-tumor ADC ratio on breast MRI, are valuable in predicting ALN metastasis, in patients with early stage of breast cancer.

Risk factors for hospital admission in revisiting patients to the emergency department with abdominal pain

  • ;김혜진
    • 대한응급의학회지
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    • 제29권6호
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to identify the clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with the admission of patients in the emergency department (ED) within 30 days after discharge. Methods: A retrospective, observational study was conducted on adult patients presenting with abdominal pain to the ED of a single, urban, university hospital, between January 2014 and December 2015, who revisited the ED within 30 days after discharge. Data was collected on the emergency severity index level, time to contact doctors, physical examination, laboratory tests, use of computed tomography (CT), and patient disposition on revisitation. The primary outcome was hospital admission following an ED revisit in the 30-day period after the first visit. Results: During the study period, 19,480 patients visited the ED with the chief complaint of abdominal pain, and 13,577 were discharged. A total of 251 patients (1.29%) revisited the ED within 30 days, of which 89 were eligible for the study. The primary outcome was associated with not performing a CT scan on the initial visit and an increased C-reactive protein (CRP) value. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that a cut-off baseline CRP value of >0.35 mg/dL can predict the primary outcome with a sensitivity and specificity of 75% and 62.1%, respectively (area under the curve, 0.701; 95% confidence interval, 0.569-0.833; P=0.007). Conclusion: An increased CRP value and not performing abdominal CT were associated with a higher rate of admission following ED revisits of patients with abdominal pain. Future prospective studies on the role of abdominal CT imaging in patients presenting to the ED with abdominal pain will be needed.

향정신성 약물 중독에 의한 QTc 연장과 그 위험성에 대한 고찰 (QTc Prolongation due to Psychotropic Drugs Intoxication and Its Risk Assessment)

  • 박관호;홍훈표;이종석;정기영;고석훈;김성규;최한성
    • 대한임상독성학회지
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.66-77
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: The aims of the present study were twofold. First, the research investigated the effect of an individual's risk factors and the prevalence of psychotropic drugs on QTc prolongation, TdP (torsades de pointes), and death. Second, the study compared the risk scoring systems (the Mayo Pro-QT risk score and the Tisadale risk score) on QTc prolongation. Methods: The medical records of intoxicated patients who visited the emergency department between March 2010 and February 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. Among 733 patients, the present study included 426 psychotropic drug-intoxicated patients. The patients were categorized according to the QTc value. The known risk factors of QTc prolongation were examined, and the Mayo Pro-QT risk score and the Tisadale risk score were calculated. The analysis was performed using multiple logistic regression, Spearman correlation, and ROC (receiver operating characteristic). Results: The numbers in the mild to moderate group (male: 470≤QTc<500 ms, female: 480≤QTc<500 ms) and severe group (QTc≥500 ms or increase of QTc at least 60ms from baseline, both sex) were 68 and 95, respectively. TdP did not occur, and the only cause of death was aspiration pneumonia. The statically significant risk factors were multidrug intoxications of TCA (tricyclic antidepressant), atypical antipsychotics, an atypical antidepressant, panic disorder, and hypokalemia. The Tisadale risk score was larger than the Mayo Pro-QT risk score. Conclusion: Multiple psychotropic drugs intoxication (TCA, an atypical antidepressant, and atypical antipsychotics), panic disorder, and hypokalemia have been proven to be the main risk factors of QTc prolongation, which require enhanced attention. The present study showed that the Tisadale score had a stronger correlation and predictive accuracy for QTc prolongation than the Mayo Pro-QT score. As a result, the Tisadale risk score is a crucial assessment tool for psychotropic drug-intoxicated patients in a clinical setting.

Risk-Scoring System for Prediction of Non-Curative Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection Requiring Additional Gastrectomy in Patients with Early Gastric Cancer

  • Kim, Tae-Se;Min, Byung-Hoon;Kim, Kyoung-Mee;Yoo, Heejin;Kim, Kyunga;Min, Yang Won;Lee, Hyuk;Rhee, Poong-Lyul;Kim, Jae J.;Lee, Jun Haeng
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.368-378
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: When patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) undergo non-curative endoscopic submucosal dissection requiring gastrectomy (NC-ESD-RG), additional medical resources and expenses are required for surgery. To reduce this burden, predictive model for NC-ESD-RG is required. Materials and Methods: Data from 2,997 patients undergoing ESD for 3,127 forceps biopsy-proven differentiated-type EGCs (2,345 and 782 in training and validation sets, respectively) were reviewed. Using the training set, the logistic stepwise regression analysis determined the independent predictors of NC-ESD-RG (NC-ESD other than cases with lateral resection margin involvement or piecemeal resection as the only non-curative factor). Using these predictors, a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG was developed. Performance of the predictive model was examined internally with the validation set. Results: Rate of NC-ESD-RG was 17.3%. Independent pre-ESD predictors for NC-ESD-RG included moderately differentiated or papillary EGC, large tumor size, proximal tumor location, lesion at greater curvature, elevated or depressed morphology, and presence of ulcers. A risk-score was assigned to each predictor of NC-ESD-RG. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting NC-ESD-RG was 0.672 in both training and validation sets. A risk-score of 5 points was the optimal cut-off value for predicting NC-ESD-RG, and the overall accuracy was 72.7%. As the total risk score increased, the predicted risk for NC-ESD-RG increased from 3.8% to 72.6%. Conclusions: We developed and validated a risk-scoring system for predicting NC-ESD-RG based on pre-ESD variables. Our risk-scoring system can facilitate informed consent and decision-making for preoperative treatment selection between ESD and surgery in patients with EGC.

Influence of kilovoltage- peak and the metal artifact reduction tool in cone-beam computed tomography on the detection of bone defects around titanium-zirconia and zirconia implants

  • Fontenele, Rocharles Cavalcante;Nascimento, Eduarda Helena Leandro;Imbelloni-Vasconcelos, Ana Catarina;Martins, Luciano Augusto Cano;Pontual, Andrea dos Anjos;Ramos-Perez, Flavia Maria Moraes;Freitas, Deborah Queiroz
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • 제52권3호
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the influence of kilovoltage- peak (kVp) and the metal artifact reduction (MAR) tool on the detection of buccal and lingual peri-implant dehiscence in the presence of titanium-zirconia (Ti-Zr) and zirconia (Zr) implants in cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images. Materials and Methods: Twenty implant sites were created in the posterior region of human mandibles, including control sites (without dehiscence) and experimental sites (with dehiscence). Individually, a Ti-Zr or Zr implant was placed in each implant site. CBCT scans were performed using a Picasso Trio device, with variation in the kVp setting (70 or 90 kVp) and whether the MAR tool was used. Three oral radiologists scored the detection of dehiscence using a 5-point scale. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated and compared by multi-way analysis of variance (α=0.05). Results: The kVp, cortical plate involved (buccal or lingual cortices), and MAR did not influence any diagnostic values (P>0.05). The material of the implant did not influence the ROC curve values(P>0.05). In contrast, the sensitivity and specificity were statistically significantly influenced by the implant material (P<0.05) with Zr implants showing higher sensitivity values and lower specificity values than Ti-Zr implants. Conclusion: The detection of peri-implant dehiscence was not influenced by kVp, use of the MAR tool, or the cortical plate. Greater sensitivity and lower specificity were shown for the detection of peri-implant dehiscence in the presence of a Zr implant.

A Study on Verification of Equivalence and Effectiveness of Non-Pharmacologic Dementia Prevention and Early Detection Contents : Non-Randomly Equivalent Design

  • Jeong, Hyun-Seok;Kim, Oh-Lyong;Koo, Bon-Hoon;Kim, Ki-Hyun;Kim, Gi-Hwan;Bai, Dai-Seg;Kim, Ji-Yean;Chang, Mun-Seon;Kim, Hye-Geum
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제65권2호
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    • pp.315-324
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    • 2022
  • Objective : The aim of this study was to verify the equivalence and effectiveness of the tablet-administered Korean Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (K-RBANS) for the prevention and early detection of dementia. Methods : Data from 88 psychiatry and neurology patient samples were examined to evaluate the equivalence between tablet and paper administrations of the K-RBANS using a non-randomly equivalent group design. We calculated the prediction scores of the tablet-administered K-RBANS based on demographics and covariate-test scores for focal tests using norm samples and tested format effects. In addition, we compared the receiver operating characteristic curves to confirm the effectiveness of the K-RBANS for preventing and detecting dementia. Results : In the analysis of raw scores, line orientation showed a significant difference (t=-2.94, p<0.001), and subtests showed small to large effect sizes (0.04-0.86) between paper- and tablet-administered K-RBANS. To investigate the format effect, we compared the predicted scaled scores of the tablet sample to the scaled scores of the norm sample. Consequently, a small effect size (d≤0.20) was observed in most of the subtests, except word list and story recall, which showed a medium effect size (d=0.21), while picture naming and subtests of delayed memory showed significant differences in the one-sample t-test. In addition, the area under the curve of the total scale index (TSI) (0.827; 95% confidence interval, 0.738-0.916) was higher than that of the five indices, ranging from 0.688 to 0.820. The sensitivity and specificity of TSI were 80% and 76%, respectively. Conclusion : The overall results of this study suggest that the tablet-administered K-RBANS showed significant equivalence to the norm sample, although some subtests showed format effects, and it may be used as a valid tool for the brief screening of patients with neuropsychological disorders in Korea.

Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in Infants: Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality

  • Byeong A Yoo;Seungmo Yoo;Eun Seok Choi;Bo Sang Kwon;Chun Soo Park;Tae-Jin Yun;Dong-Hee Kim
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • 제56권3호
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    • pp.162-170
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    • 2023
  • Background: Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (E-CPR) plays an indispensable role when resuscitation fails; however, extracorporeal life support (ECLS) in infants is different from that in adults. The objective of this study was to evaluate the outcomes of E-CPR in infants. Methods: A single-center retrospective study was conducted, analyzing 51 consecutive patients (age <1 year) who received E-CPR for in-hospital cardiac arrest between 2010 and 2021. Results: The median age and body weight was 51 days (interquartile range [IQR], 17-111 days) and 3.4 kg (IQR, 2.9-5.1 kg), respectively. The cause of arrest was cardiogenic in 45 patients (88.2%), and 48 patients (94.1%) had congenital cardiac anomalies. The median conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation (C-CPR) time before the initiation of ECLS was 77 minutes (IQR, 61-103 minutes) and duration of ECLS was 7 days (IQR, 3-12 days). There were 36 in-hospital deaths (70.6%), and another patient survived after heart transplantation. In the multivariate analysis, single-ventricular physiology (odds ratio [OR], 5.05; p=0.048), open sternum status (OR, 8.69; p=0.013), and C-CPR time (OR, 1.47 per 10 minutes; p=0.021) were significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. In a receiver operating characteristic curve, the optimal cut-off of C-CPR time was 70.5 minutes. The subgroup with early E-CPR (C-CPR time <70.5 minutes) showed a tendency for lower in-hospital mortality tendency (54.5% vs. 82.8%, p=0.060), albeit not statistically significant. Conclusion: If resuscitation fails in an infant, E-CPR could be a life-saving option. It is crucial to improve C-CPR quality and shorten the time before ECLS initiation.

The Optimal Tumor Mutational Burden Cutoff Value as a Novel Marker for Predicting the Efficacy of Programmed Cell Death-1 Checkpoint Inhibitors in Advanced Gastric Cancer

  • Jae Yeon Jang;Youngkyung Jeon ;Sun Young Jeong ;Sung Hee Lim ;Won Ki Kang;Jeeyun Lee ;Seung Tae Kim
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.476-486
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The optimal tumor mutational burden (TMB) value for predicting treatment response to programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) checkpoint inhibitors in advanced gastric cancer (AGC) remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the optimal TMB cutoff value that could predict the efficacy of PD-1 checkpoint inhibitors in AGC. Materials and Methods: Patients with AGC who received pembrolizumab or nivolumab between October 1, 2020, and July 27, 2021, at Samsung Medical Center in Korea were retrospectively analyzed. The TMB levels were measured using a next-generation sequencing assay. Based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the TMB cutoff value was determined. Results: A total 53 patients were analyzed. The TMB cutoff value for predicting the overall response rate (ORR) to PD-1 checkpoint inhibitors was defined as 13.31 mutations per megabase (mt/Mb) with 56% sensitivity and 95% specificity. Based on this definition, 7 (13.2%) patients were TMB-high (TMB-H). The ORR differed between the TMB-low (TMB-L) and TMB-H (8.7% vs. 71.4%, P=0.001). The progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) for 53 patients were 1.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.600-2.268) and 4.26 months (95% CI, 2.992-5.532). The median OS was longer in the TMB-H (20.8 months; 95% CI, 2.292-39.281) than in the TMB-L (3.31 months; 95% CI, 1.604-5.019; P=0.049). Conclusions: The TMB cutoff value for predicting treatment response in AGC patients who received PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor monotherapy as salvage treatment was 13.31 mt/Mb. When applying the programmed death ligand-1 status to TMB-H, patients who would benefit from PD-1 checkpoint inhibitors can be selected.

Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio and Serum Biomarkers : A Potential Tool for Prediction of Clinically Relevant Cerebral Vasospasm after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

  • Osman Kula;Burak Gunay;Merve Yaren Kayabas;Yener Akturk;Ezgi Kula;Banu Tutunculer;Necdet Sut;Serdar Solak
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제66권6호
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    • pp.681-689
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    • 2023
  • Objective : Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a condition characterized by bleeding in the subarachnoid space, often resulting from the rupture of a cerebral aneurysm. Delayed cerebral ischemia caused by vasospasm is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity in SAH patients, and inflammatory markers such as systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), systemic inflammatory index (SII), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and derived NLR (dNLR) have shown potential in predicting clinical vasospasm and outcomes in SAH patients. This article aims to investigate the relationship between inflammatory markers and cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmatic SAH (aSAH) and evaluate the predictive value of various indices, including SIRI, SII, NLR, and dNLR, in predicting clinical vasospasm. Methods : A retrospective analysis was performed on a cohort of 96 patients who met the inclusion criteria out of a total of 139 patients admitted Trakya University Hospital with a confirmed diagnosis of aSAH between January 2013 and December 2021. Diagnostic procedures, neurological examinations, and laboratory tests were performed to assess the patients' condition. The Student's t-test compared age variables, while the chi-square test compared categorical variables between the non-vasospasm (NVS) and vasospasm (VS) groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of laboratory parameters, calculating the area under the ROC curve, cut-off values, sensitivity, and specificity. A significance level of p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results : The study included 96 patients divided into two groups : NVS and VS. Various laboratory parameters, such as NLR, SII, and dNLR, were measured daily for 15 days, and statistically significant differences were found in NLR on 7 days, with specific cut-off values identified for each day. SII showed a significant difference on day 9, while dNLR had significant differences on days 2, 4, and 9. Graphs depicting the values of these markers for each day are provided. Conclusion : Neuroinflammatory biomarkers, when used alongside radiology and scoring scales, can aid in predicting prognosis, determining severity and treatment decisions for aSAH, and further studies with larger patient groups are needed to gain more insights.

머신러닝 기반 대학생 중도 탈락 예측 모델의 성능 비교 (Performance Comparison of Machine Learning based Prediction Models for University Students Dropout)

  • 정석봉;김두연
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제32권4호
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2023
  • 전국 대학생의 중도 탈락 비율의 증가는 학생 개인 뿐만 아니라 대학과 사회에 심각한 부정적 영향을 끼친다. 본 연구에서는 중도 탈락이 예상되는 학생을 사전에 식별하기 위하여, 각 대학의 학사관리 시스템에서 손쉽게 얻을 수 있는 학적 데이터를 기반으로 머신러닝 분야의 결정트리, 랜덤 포레스트, 로지스틱 회귀 및 딥러닝 기반의 중도 탈락 예측 모델을 구축하고, 그 성능을 비교·분석하였다. 분석 결과 로지스틱 회귀 기반 예측 모델의 재현율이 가장 높았으나 f-1 및 auc 값이 낮은 한계를 보였고, 랜덤 포레스트 기반의 예측 모델의 경우 재현율을 제외한 다른 모든 지표에서 가장 우수한 성능을 보였다. 또한 예측 기간에 따른 예측 모델의 성능을 확인하기 위하여 예측 기간을 단기(1개 학기 이내), 중기(2개 학기 이내) 및 장기(3개 학기 이내)로 나누어 분석해 본 결과, 장기 예측 시 가장 높은 예측력을 보였다. 본 연구를 통해 각 대학은 중도 탈락이 예상되는 학생들을 조기에 식별하고, 이들에 대한 집중 관리를 통해 중도 탈락 비율을 줄이며 나아가 대학 재정 안정화에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.