• 제목/요약/키워드: receiver operating characteristic analysis

검색결과 371건 처리시간 0.036초

N-Terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide Is Useful to Predict Cardiac Complications Following Lung Resection Surgery

  • Lee, Chang-Young;Bae, Mi-Kyung;Lee, Jin-Gu;Kim, Kwan-Wook;Park, In-Kyu;Chung, Kyung-Young
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • 제44권1호
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2011
  • Background: Cardiovascular complications are major causes of morbidity and mortality following non-cardiac thoracic operations. Recent studies have demonstrated that elevation of N-Terminal Pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels can predict cardiac complications following non-cardiac major surgery as well as cardiac surgery. However, there is little information on the correlation between lung resection surgery and NT-proBNP levels. We evaluated the role of NT-proBNP as a potential marker for the risk stratification of cardiac complications following lung resection surgery. Material and Methods: Prospectively collected data of 98 patients, who underwent elective lung resection from August 2007 to February 2008, were analyzed. Postoperative adverse cardiac events were categorized as myocardial injury, ECG evidence of ischemia or arrhythmia, heart failure, or cardiac death. Results: Postoperative cardiac complications were documented in 9 patients (9/98, 9.2%): Atrial fibrillation in 3, ECG-evidenced ischemia in 2 and heart failure in 4. Preoperative median NT-proBNP levels was significantly higher in patients who developed postoperative cardiac complications than in the rest (200.2 ng/L versus 45.0 ng/L, p=0.009). NT-proBNP levels predicted adverse cardiac events with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.545~0.988, p=0.01]. A preoperative NT-proBNP value of 160 ng/L was found to be the best cut-off value for detecting postoperative cardiac complication with a positive predictive value of 0.857 and a negative predictive value of 0.978. Other factors related to cardiac complications by univariate analysis were a higher American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, a higher NYHA functional class and a history of hypertension. In multivariate analysis, however, high preoperative NT-proBNP level (>160 ng/L) only remained significant. Conclusion: An elevated preoperative NT-proBNP level is identified as an independent predictor of cardiac complications following lung resection surgery.

Performances of Prognostic Models in Stratifying Patients with Advanced Gastric Cancer Receiving First-line Chemotherapy: a Validation Study in a Chinese Cohort

  • Xu, Hui;Zhang, Xiaopeng;Wu, Zhijun;Feng, Ying;Zhang, Cheng;Xie, Minmin;Yang, Yahui;Zhang, Yi;Feng, Chong;Ma, Tai
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.268-278
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: While several prognostic models for the stratification of death risk have been developed for patients with advanced gastric cancer receiving first-line chemotherapy, they have seldom been tested in the Chinese population. This study investigated the performance of these models and identified the optimal tools for Chinese patients. Materials and Methods: Patients diagnosed with metastatic or recurrent gastric adenocarcinoma who received first-line chemotherapy were eligible for inclusion in the validation cohort. Their clinical data and survival outcomes were retrieved and documented. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive ability of the models. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for patients in different risk groups divided by 7 published stratification tools. Log-rank tests with pairwise comparisons were used to compare survival differences. Results: The analysis included a total of 346 patients with metastatic or recurrent disease. The median overall survival time was 11.9 months. The patients were different into different risk groups according to the prognostic stratification models, which showed variability in distinguishing mortality risk in these patients. The model proposed by Kim et al. showed relative higher predicting abilities compared to the other models, with the highest χ2 (25.8) value in log-rank tests across subgroups, and areas under the curve values at 6, 12, and 24 months of 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59-0.72), 0.60 (0.54-0.65), and 0.63 (0.56-0.69), respectively. Conclusions: Among existing prognostic tools, the models constructed by Kim et al., which incorporated performance status score, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, and tumor differentiation, were more effective in stratifying Chinese patients with gastric cancer receiving first-line chemotherapy.

Cut-off Value for Body Mass Index in Predicting Surgical Success in Patients with Lumbar Spinal Canal Stenosis

  • Azimi, Parisa;Yazdanian, Taravat;Shahzadi, Sohrab;Benzel, Edward C.;Azhari, Shirzad;Aghaei, Hossein Nayeb;Montazeri, Ali
    • Asian Spine Journal
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.1085-1091
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    • 2018
  • Study Design: Case-control. Purpose: To determine optimal cut-off value for body mass index (BMI) in predicting surgical success in patients with lumbar spinal canal stenosis (LSCS). Overview of Literature: BMI is an essential variable in the assessment of patients with LSCS. Methods: We conducted a prospective study with obese and non-obese LSCS surgical patients and analyzed data on age, sex, duration of symptoms, walking distance, morphologic grade of stenosis, BMI, postoperative complications, and functional disability. Obesity was defined as BMI of ${\geq}30kg/m^2$. Patients completed the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) questionnaire before surgery and 2 years after surgery. Surgical success was defined as ${\geq}30%$ improvement from the baseline ODI score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to estimate the optimal cut-off values of BMI to predict surgical success. In addition, correlation was assessed between BMI and stenosis grade based on morphology as defined by Schizas and colleague in total, 189 patients were eligible to enter the study. Results: Mean age of patients was $61.5{\pm}9.6years$. Mean follow-up was $36{\pm}12months$. Most patients (88.4%) were classified with grades C (severe stenosis) and D (extreme stenosis). Post-surgical success was 85.7% at the 2-year follow-up. A weak correlation was observed between morphologic grade of stenosis and BMI. Rates of postoperative complications were similar between patients who were obese and those who were non-obese. Both cohorts had similar degree of improvement in the ODI at the 2-year followup. However, patients who were non-obese presented significantly higher surgical success than those who were obese. In ROC curve analysis, a cut-off value of ${\leq}29.1kg/m^2$ for BMI in patients with LSCS was suggestive of surgical success, with 81.1% sensitivity and 82.2% specificity (area under the curve, 0.857; 95% confidence interval, 0.788-0.927). Conclusion: This study showed that the BMI can be considered a parameter for predicting surgical success in patients with LSCS and can be useful in clinical practice.

Risk Factors and Preoperative Risk Scoring System for Shunt-Dependent Hydrocephalus Following Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

  • Kim, Joo Hyun;Kim, Jae Hoon;Kang, Hee In;Kim, Deok Ryeong;Moon, Byung Gwan;Kim, Joo Seung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제62권6호
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    • pp.643-648
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    • 2019
  • Objective : Shunt-dependent hydrocephalus (SdHCP) is a well-known complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The risk factors for SdHCP have been widely investigated, but few risk scoring systems have been established to predict SdHCP. This study was performed to investigate the risk factors for SdHCP and devise a risk scoring system for use before aneurysm obliteration. Methods : We reviewed the data of 301 consecutive patients who underwent aneurysm obliteration following SAH from September 2007 to December 2016. The exclusion criteria for this study were previous aneurysm obliteration, previous major cerebral infarction, the presence of a cavum septum pellucidum, a midline shift of >10 mm on initial computed tomography (CT), and in-hospital mortality. We finally recruited 254 patients and analyzed the following data according to the presence or absence of SdHCP : age, sex, history of hypertension and diabetes mellitus, Hunt-Hess grade, Fisher grade, aneurysm size and location, type of treatment, bicaudate index on initial CT, intraventricular hemorrhage, cerebrospinal fluid drainage, vasospasm, and modified Rankin scale score at discharge. Results : In the multivariate analysis, acute HCP (bicaudate index of ${\geq}0.2$) (odds ratio [OR], 6.749; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.843-16.021; p=0.000), Fisher grade of 4 (OR, 4.108; 95% CI, 1.044-16.169; p=0.043), and an age of ${\geq}50years$ (OR, 3.938; 95% CI, 1.375-11.275; p=0.011) were significantly associated with the occurrence of SdHCP. The risk scoring system using above parameters of acute HCP, Fisher grade, and age (AFA score) assigned 1 point to each (total score of 0-3 points). SdHCP occurred in 4.3% of patients with a score of 0, 8.5% with a score of 1, 25.5% with a score of 2, and 61.7% with a score of 3 (p=0.000). In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) for the risk scoring system was 0.820 (p=0.080; 95% CI, 0.750-0.890). In the internal validation of the risk scoring system, the score reliably predicted SdHCP (AUC, 0.895; p=0.000; 95% CI, 0.847-0.943). Conclusion : Our results suggest that the herein-described AFA score is a useful tool for predicting SdHCP before aneurysm obliteration. Prospective validation is needed.

Assessment of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Elderly Subjects Using a Fully Automated Brain Segmentation Software

  • Kwon, Chiheon;Kang, Koung Mi;Byun, Min Soo;Yi, Dahyun;Song, Huijin;Lee, Ji Ye;Hwang, Inpyeong;Yoo, Roh-Eul;Yun, Tae Jin;Choi, Seung Hong;Kim, Ji-hoon;Sohn, Chul-Ho;Lee, Dong Young
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.164-171
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a prodromal stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Brain atrophy in this disease spectrum begins in the medial temporal lobe structure, which can be recognized by magnetic resonance imaging. To overcome the unsatisfactory inter-observer reliability of visual evaluation, quantitative brain volumetry has been developed and widely investigated for the diagnosis of MCI and AD. The aim of this study was to assess the prediction accuracy of quantitative brain volumetry using a fully automated segmentation software package, NeuroQuant®, for the diagnosis of MCI. Materials and Methods: A total of 418 subjects from the Korean Brain Aging Study for Early Diagnosis and Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease cohort were included in our study. Each participant was allocated to either a cognitively normal old group (n = 285) or an MCI group (n = 133). Brain volumetric data were obtained from T1-weighted images using the NeuroQuant software package. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to investigate relevant brain regions and their prediction accuracies. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that normative percentiles of the hippocampus (P < 0.001), amygdala (P = 0.003), frontal lobe (P = 0.049), medial parietal lobe (P = 0.023), and third ventricle (P = 0.012) were independent predictive factors for MCI. In ROC analysis, normative percentiles of the hippocampus and amygdala showed fair accuracies in the diagnosis of MCI (area under the curve: 0.739 and 0.727, respectively). Conclusion: Normative percentiles of the hippocampus and amygdala provided by the fully automated segmentation software could be used for screening MCI with a reasonable post-processing time. This information might help us interpret structural MRI in patients with cognitive impairment.

임상적 지표를 이용한 대뇌 아밀로이드 단백 축적 여부 예측모델 개발 (Development of Cerebral Amyloid Positivity Predicting Models Using Clinical Indicators)

  • 천영재;주수현
    • 생물정신의학
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.94-100
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    • 2020
  • Objectives Amyloid β positron emission tomography (Aβ PET) is widely used as a diagnostic tool in patients who have symptoms of cognitive impairment, however, this diagnostic examination is too expensive. Thus, predicting the positivity of Aβ PET before patients undergo the examination is essential. We aimed to analyze clinical predictors of patients who underwent Aβ PET retrospectively, and to develop a predicting model of Aβ PET positivity. Methods 468 patients who underwent Aβ PET with cognitive impairment were recruited and their clinical indicators were analyzed retrospectively. We specified the primary outcome as Aβ PET positivity, and included variables such as age, sex, body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, education, dementia family history, Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Box (CDR-SB), hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM) and presence of apolipoprotein E (ApoE) E4 as potential predictors. We developed three final models of amyloid positivity prediction for total subjects, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia using a multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed and the area under curve (AUC) value was calculated for the ROC curve. Results Aβ PET negative patients were 49.6% (n = 232), and Aβ PET positive patients were 50.4% (n = 236). In the final model of all subjects, older age, female sex, presence of ApoE E4 and lower MMSE are associated with Aβ PET positivity. The AUC value was 0.296. In the final model of MCI subjects (n = 244), older age and presence of ApoE E4 are associated with Aβ PET positivity. The AUC value was 0.725. In the final model of AD subjects (n = 173), lower MMSE scores, the presence of ApoE E4 and history of HTN are associated with Aβ PET positivity. The AUC value was 0.681. Conclusions The cerebral amyloid positivity model, which was based on commonly available clinical indicators, can be useful for prediction of amyloid PET positivity in MCI or AD patients.

외측 발목 염좌 병력에 따른 정적 하지 정렬 차이: 외측 발목 염좌의 예측인자로서 정적 하지 정렬 검사의 효용성과 한계점 (Differences in Static Lower Extremity Alignment according to the History of Lateral Ankle Sprain: Efficacy and Limitation of Static Lower Limb Alignment Measurement as a Predictor of Lateral Ankle Sprain)

  • Jeon, Hyung Gyu;Ha, Sunghe;Lee, Inje;Kang, Tae Kyu;Kim, Eun Sung;Lee, Sae Yong
    • 한국운동역학회지
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2021
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate 1) the difference in static lower extremity alignment (SLEA) according to a history of lateral ankle sprain (LAS), 2) to identify SLEA factors affecting LAS, and 3) to present the cut-off value and 4) the usefulness and limitations of the SLEA measurement. Method: This case-control study recruited 88 men (age: 27.78±4.69 yrs) and 39 women (age: 24.62±4.20 yrs) subjects with and without LAS. SLEA measurement protocol included Q angle, tibiofemoral angle, genu recurvatum, rear foot (RF) angle, tibal varum and torsion, navicular drop, ankle dorsiflexion range of motion (DF ROM). Independent t-test, logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used for statistical analysis. Results: Men with a history of LAS had significantly smaller Q angles both in standing and in supine position, while women with a history of LAS had significantly greater DF ROM in non-weight bearing (NWB; p < 0.05). Logistic regression model suggests tibial varum (OR = 0.779, p = 0.021) and WB DF ROM (OR = 1.067, p = 0.045) were associated with LAS in men. In case of women, there were no significant SLEA factors for LAS, however, ROC curve analysis revealed standing RF angle (AUC = 0.647, p = 0.028) and NWB DF ROM (AUC = 0.648, p = 0.026) could be affecting factors for LAS. Conclusion: There are differences in SLEA according to the history of LAS, furthermore, the identified items were different by sex. In case of men, tibial varum and WB DF ROM affect LAS occurrence. Standing RF angle and NWB DF ROM of women could be a predictor for LAS. However, since the sensitivity and specificity in most of the SLEA measurements are low, kinematic in dynamic tasks should be considered together for a more accurate evaluation of LAS risk.

비정형 데이터를 활용한 가뭄평가 - 보령지역을 중심으로 - (Drought evaluation using unstructured data: a case study for Boryeong area)

  • 정진홍;박동혁;안재현
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제53권12호
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    • pp.1203-1210
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    • 2020
  • 가뭄은 다양한 수문학적 또는 기상학적 인자들이 복합적으로 작용하여 발생하기 때문에 가뭄의 사상을 정확히 평가하는 것은 어려운 일이나, 이를 정량적으로 해석하기 위해 다양한 가뭄지수들이 개발되어 왔다. 하지만 현재 활용중인 가뭄지수들은 단일변량의 부족량을 통해 산정되며, 복합적인 원인으로 발생하는 가뭄의 사상을 정확히 판단하지 못하는 문제가 있다. 단순 단일변량의 부족을 가뭄이라고 판단하기는 어렵기 때문이다. 최근에는 빅데이터 분석에서 많이 활용되고 있는 비정형 데이터를 활용하여 지수를 개발하는 연구들이 타 분야에서 진행되고 있으며 우수성이 입증되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존 가뭄지수에 활용 중인 기상 및 수문정보(강수량, 댐 유입량)에 각각 비정형 데이터(뉴스데이터)를 결합하여 가뭄지수를 산정하고, 산정된 가뭄지수의 검증을 통해 가뭄해석의 활용성을 평가하고자 한다. 결합가뭄지수 산정을 위해 Clayton Copula 함수를 활용하였으며, 매개변수 추정은 교정방법을 이용하였다. 분석결과, 기존의 가뭄지수(SPI, SDI)보다 비정형 데이터를 결합한 가뭄지수가 가뭄기간을 적절히 재현하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) score가 기존의 가뭄지수들보다 높게 산정되어 가뭄해석에 있어 활용성이 우수하였다. 본 연구에서 산정된 결합가뭄지수는 기존 단일변량 가뭄지수의 해석적 한계를 보완하고 비정형데이터를 활용한 가뭄지수의 활용성이 우수하다는 점에서 활용성이 높다고 판단된다.

Does dexmedetomidine combined with levobupivacaine in inferior alveolar nerve blocks among patients undergoing impacted third molar surgery control postoperative morbidity?

  • Patil, Shweta Murlidhar;Jadhav, Anendd;Bhola, Nitin;Hingnikar, Pawan;Kshirsagar, Krutarth;Patil, Dipali
    • Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 2022
  • Background: Postoperative analgesia (POA) is an important determinant of successful treatment. Dexmedetomidine (DEX) has recently gained attention as a promising adjuvant to local anesthetics (LA). The present study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of levobupivacaine (LB) as an adjuvant during inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB) in the extraction of lower impacted third molars (LITM). Methods: A prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled, triple-blind, parallel-arm, and clinical study was performed on 50 systemically healthy participants who required removal of an asymptomatic LITM. Using a 1:1 distribution, the participants were randomized into two groups (n = 25). Group L (control group) received 1.8 mL of 0.5% LB and 0.2 mL normal saline (placebo) and Group D (study group) received a blend of 1.8 mL of 0.5% LB and 0.2 mL (20 ㎍) DEX. The primary outcome variable was the duration of POA and hemodynamic stability, and the secondary variable was the total number of analgesics required postoperatively for up to 72 h. The participants were requested to record the time of rescue analgesic use and the total number of rescue analgesics taken. The area under the curve was plotted for the total number of analgesics administered. The pain was evaluated using the visual analog scale. Data analysis was performed using paired students and unpaired t-test, Mann-Whitney U test, Chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic analysis. Statistical significance was set at P < 0.05. Results: The latency, profoundness of anesthesia, and duration of POA were statistically significant (P < 0.05). The differences between mean pain scores at 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 h were found to be significant (each P = 0.0001). Fewer analgesics were required by participants in group D (2.12 ± 0.33) than in L (4.04 ± 0.67), with a significant difference (P = 0.0001). Conclusion: Perineurally administered LA with DEX is a safe, effective, and therapeutic approach for improving latency, providing profound POA, and reducing the need for postoperative analgesia.

The Effect of Hounsfield Unit Value with Conventional Computed Tomography and Intraoperative Distraction on Postoperative Intervertebral Height Reduction in Patients Following Stand-Alone Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion

  • Lee, Jun Seok;Son, Dong Wuk;Lee, Su Hun;Ki, Sung Soon;Lee, Sang Weon;Song, Geun Sung;Woo, Joon Bum;Kim, Young Ha
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제65권1호
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    • pp.96-106
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    • 2022
  • Objective : The most common complication of anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) is cage subsidence and maintenance of disc height affects postoperative clinical outcomes. We considered cage subsidence as an inappropriate indicator for evaluating preservation of disc height. Thus, this study aimed to consider patients with complications such as reduced total disc height compared to that before surgery and evaluate the relevance of several factors before ACDF. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 40 patients who underwent stand-alone single-level ACDF using a polyetheretherketone (PEEK) cage at our institution between January 2012 and December 2018. Our study population comprised 19 male and 21 female patients aged 24-70 years. The minimum follow-up period was 1 year. Twenty-seven patients had preoperative bone mineral density (BMD) data on dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Clinical parameters included sex, age, body mass index, smoking history, and prior medical history. Radiologic parameters included the C2-7 cobb angle, segmental angle, sagittal vertical axis, disc height, and total intervertebral height (TIH) at the preoperative and postoperative periods. Cage decrement was defined as the reduction in TIH at the 6-month follow-up compared to preoperative TIH. To evaluate the bone quality, Hounsfield unit (HU) value was calculated in the axial and sagittal images of conventional computed tomography. Results : Lumbar BMD values and cervical HU values were significantly correlated (r=0.733, p<0.001). We divided the patients into two groups based on cage decrement, and 47.5% of the total patients were regarded as cage decrement. There were statistically significant differences in the parameters of measuring the HU value of the vertebra and intraoperative distraction between the two groups. Using these identified factors, we performed a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Based on the ROC curve, the cut-off point was 530 at the HU value of the upper cortical and cancellous vertebrae (p=0.014; area under the curve [AUC], 0.727; sensitivity, 94.7%; specificity, 42.9%) and 22.41 at intraoperative distraction (p=0.017; AUC, 0.722; sensitivity, 85.7%; specificity, 57.9%). Using this value, we converted these parameters into a bifurcated variable and assessed the multinomial regression analysis to evaluate the risk factors for cage decrement in ACDF. Intraoperative distraction and HU value of the upper vertebral body were independent factors of postoperative subsidence. Conclusion : Insufficient intraoperative distraction and low HU value showed a strong relationship with postoperative intervertebral height reduction following single stand-alone PEEK cage ACDF.