Predicting the Direction of the Stock Index by Using a Domain-Specific Sentiment Dictionary (주가지수 방향성 예측을 위한 주제지향 감성사전 구축 방안)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.19 no.1
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- pp.95-110
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- 2013
Recently, the amount of unstructured data being generated through a variety of social media has been increasing rapidly, resulting in the increasing need to collect, store, search for, analyze, and visualize this data. This kind of data cannot be handled appropriately by using the traditional methodologies usually used for analyzing structured data because of its vast volume and unstructured nature. In this situation, many attempts are being made to analyze unstructured data such as text files and log files through various commercial or noncommercial analytical tools. Among the various contemporary issues dealt with in the literature of unstructured text data analysis, the concepts and techniques of opinion mining have been attracting much attention from pioneer researchers and business practitioners. Opinion mining or sentiment analysis refers to a series of processes that analyze participants' opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions about selected products, services, organizations, social issues, and so on. In other words, many attempts based on various opinion mining techniques are being made to resolve complicated issues that could not have otherwise been solved by existing traditional approaches. One of the most representative attempts using the opinion mining technique may be the recent research that proposed an intelligent model for predicting the direction of the stock index. This model works mainly on the basis of opinions extracted from an overwhelming number of economic news repots. News content published on various media is obviously a traditional example of unstructured text data. Every day, a large volume of new content is created, digitalized, and subsequently distributed to us via online or offline channels. Many studies have revealed that we make better decisions on political, economic, and social issues by analyzing news and other related information. In this sense, we expect to predict the fluctuation of stock markets partly by analyzing the relationship between economic news reports and the pattern of stock prices. So far, in the literature on opinion mining, most studies including ours have utilized a sentiment dictionary to elicit sentiment polarity or sentiment value from a large number of documents. A sentiment dictionary consists of pairs of selected words and their sentiment values. Sentiment classifiers refer to the dictionary to formulate the sentiment polarity of words, sentences in a document, and the whole document. However, most traditional approaches have common limitations in that they do not consider the flexibility of sentiment polarity, that is, the sentiment polarity or sentiment value of a word is fixed and cannot be changed in a traditional sentiment dictionary. In the real world, however, the sentiment polarity of a word can vary depending on the time, situation, and purpose of the analysis. It can also be contradictory in nature. The flexibility of sentiment polarity motivated us to conduct this study. In this paper, we have stated that sentiment polarity should be assigned, not merely on the basis of the inherent meaning of a word but on the basis of its ad hoc meaning within a particular context. To implement our idea, we presented an intelligent investment decision-support model based on opinion mining that performs the scrapping and parsing of massive volumes of economic news on the web, tags sentiment words, classifies sentiment polarity of the news, and finally predicts the direction of the next day's stock index. In addition, we applied a domain-specific sentiment dictionary instead of a general purpose one to classify each piece of news as either positive or negative. For the purpose of performance evaluation, we performed intensive experiments and investigated the prediction accuracy of our model. For the experiments to predict the direction of the stock index, we gathered and analyzed 1,072 articles about stock markets published by "M" and "E" media between July 2011 and September 2011.
This paper focuses on 'clean(cheong: 淸)' kinds of style terminologies among various style terminologies appearing in Heo Gyun's Seongsushihwa("惺?詩話") and tries to analyze the distinctive points which 'clean(cheong: 淸)' kinds of style terminologies include. In Heo Gyun's Seongsushihwa, 11 of 'clean' kinds of style terminologies, such as "cheonggyeong(淸勁), cheonghryang(淸亮), cheongryeo(淸麗), cheongseom(淸贍), cheongso(淸?), cheongweol(淸越), cheongjang(淸壯), cheongjeol(淸絶), cheongjeol(淸切), cheongchang(淸?), cheongcho(淸楚)," were used. This paper focuses and analyzes 'cheonggyeong(淸勁)', 'cheongjeol(淸切)', 'cheongcho(淸楚)', and 'cheongweol(淸越)' that he suggested through applying to real literary pieces. The result of analysis indicates that 'clean' kinds of style terminologies 'cheonggyeong', 'cheongjeol', 'cheongcho', and 'cheongweol' share the same 1st character 'clean(淸)', yet have distinctive qualities by the 2nd characters. These 4 style terminologies all share 'cheong(淸)' image which means clear and clean, yet each one has the attribute of the 2nd character that indicates each one's individual characteristic. It is apparent that 'Cheonggyeong(淸勁)' reflects the 'gyeong(勁)' image meaning upright and solid and implies poems of poets' steadfast spirit within clear boundary; 'cheongjeol(淸切)' reflects the 'jeol(切)' image meaning either desperation and imminence or pitifulness and sorrow and implies poems of poets' urgent and pitiful emotions within clear and clean boundary; 'cheongcho(淸楚)' reflects the 'cho(楚)' image meaning either delicacy and fineness or slenderness and tenderness and implies poems of poets' beautiful but not luxurious, delicate and tender emotions within clear and clean boundary; and 'cheongweol(淸越)' reflects the image of 'weol(越)' meaning unworldliness and excellency and implies poems, within clear and clean boundary, of excellent appearance and mentality surpassing mundane world. Compared with the 1st character's attributes of the style terminologies which Heo Gyun used, the 2nd characters's attributes do not appear that vivid. Especially, in the case that the 2nd characters have similar meanings, it is not easy to clarify the categories. Indeed, in order to grasp clear and distinctive qualities of style terminologies, the kinds of them need to be initially categorized by the 1st characters, and then sorted by the 2nd characters. In this case, the contents which the 2nd characters of style terminologies indicate should be considered. It is because style terminologies explain both literary pieces' aesthetic qualities and writers' personalities, and because explanations about literary pieces' aesthetic qualities includes not only the conclusive poetic or semantic boundaries which literary pieces' created but also literary pieces' creation processes and expression techniques. Through the style terminologies with Heo Gyun used in Seongsushihwa, it can be aware that he evaluated poems focussing more on the conclusive semantic boundaries that poets' spirits and poems created than expression techniques or creation methods. The overall aspects Heo Gyun's such style criticism has will be checked out in more detail through further studies by examining more materials.
The Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains comprises sixty real scenery landscape paintings depicting Geumgangsan Mountain, the Haegeumgang River, and the eight scenic views of Gwandong regions, as well as fifty-one pieces of writing. It is a rare example in terms of its size and painting style. The paintings in this album, which are densely packed with natural features, follow the painting style of the Southern School yet employ crude and unconventional elements. In them, stones on the mountains are depicted both geometrically and three-dimensionally. Since 1973, parts of this album have been published in some exhibition catalogues. The entire album was opened to the public at the special exhibition "Through the Eyes of Joseon Painters: Real Scenery Landscapes of Korea" held at the National Museum of Korea in 2019. The Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains was attributed to Kim Eung-hwan (1742-1789) due to the signature on the final leaf of the album and the seal reading "Bokheon(painter's penname)" on the currently missing album leaf of Chilbodae Peaks. However, there is a strong possibility that this signature and seal may have been added later. This paper intends to reexamine the creator of this album based on a variety of related factors. In order to understand the production background of Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains, I investigated the eighteenth-century tradition of drawing scenic spots while travelling in which scenery of was depicted during private travels or official excursions. Jeong Seon(1676-1759), Sim Sa-jeong(1707-1769), Kim Yun-gyeom(1711-1775), Choe Buk(1712-after 1786), and Kang Se-hwang(1713-1791) all went on a journey to Geumgangsan Mountain, the most famous travel destination in the late Joseon period, and created paintings of the mountain, including Album of Pungak Mountain in the Sinmyo Year(1711) by Jeong Seon. These painters presented their versions of the traditional scenic spots of Inner Geumgangsan and newly depicted vistas they discovered for themselves. To commemorate their private visits, they produced paintings for their fellow travelers or sponsors in an album format that could include several scenes. While the production of paintings of private travels to Geumgangsan Mountain increased, King Jeongjo(r. 1776-1800) ordered Kim Eung-hwan and Kim Hong-do, court painters at the Dohwaseo(Royal Bureau of Painting), to paint scenic spots in the nine counties of the Yeongdong region and around Geumgangsan Mountain. King Jeongjo selected these two as the painters for the official excursion taking into account their relationship, their administrative experience as regional officials, and their distinct painting styles. Starting in the reign of King Yeongjo(r. 1724-1776), Kim Eung-hwan and Kim Hong-do served as court painters at the Dohwaseo, maintained a close relationship as a senior and a junior and as colleagues, and served as chalbang(chief in large of post stations) in the Yeongnam region. While Kim Hong-do was proficient at applying soft and delicate brushstrokes, Kim Eung-hwan was skilled at depicting the beauty of robust and luxuriant landscapes. Both painters produced about 100 scenes of original drawings over fifty days of the official excursion. Based on these original drawings, they created around seventy album leaves or handscrolls. Their paintings enriched the tradition of depicting scenic spots, particularly Outer Inner Geumgang and the eight scenic views of Gwandong around Geumgangsan Mountain during private journeys in the eighteenth century. Moreover, they newly discovered places of scenic beauty in the Outer Geungang and Yeongdong regions, establishing them as new painting themes. The Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains consists of four volumes. The volumes I, II include twenty-nine paintings of Inner Geumgangsan; the volume III, seventeen scenes of Outer Geumgangsan; and the volume IV, fourteen images of Maritime Geumgangsan and the eight scenic views of Gwandong. These paintings produced on silk show crowded compositions, geometrical depictions of the stones and the mountains, and distinct presentation of the rocky peaks of Geumgangsan Mountain using white and grayish-blue pigments. This album reflects the Joseon painting style of the mid- and late eighteenth century, integrating influences from Jeong Seon, Kang Se-hwang, Sim Sa-jeong, Jeong Chung-yeop(1725-after 1800), and Kim Hong-do. In particular, some paintings in the album show similarities to Kim Hong-do's Album of Famous Mountains in Korea in terms of its compositions and painterly motifs. However, "Yeongrangho Lake," "Haesanjeong Pavilion," and "Wolsongjeong Pavilion" in Kim Eung-hwan's album differ from in the version by Kim Hong-do. Thus, Kim Eung-hwan was influenced by Kim Hong-do, but produced his own distinctive album. The Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains includes scenery of "Jaundam Pool," "Baegundae Peak," "Viewing Birobong Peak at Anmunjeom groove," and "Baekjeongbong Peak," all of which are not depicted in other albums. In his version, Kim Eung-hwan portrayed the characteristics of the natural features in each scenic spot in a detailed and refreshing manner. Moreover, he illustrated stones on the mountains using geometric shapes and added a sense of three-dimensionality using lines and planes. Based on the painting traditions of the Southern School, he established his own characteristics. He also turned natural features into triangular or rectangular chunks. All sixty paintings in this album appear rough and unconventional, but maintain their internal consistency. Each of the fifty-one writings included in the Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains is followed by a painting of a scenic spot. It explains the depicted landscape, thus helping viewers to understand and appreciate the painting. Intimately linked to each painting, the related text notes information on traveling from one scenic spot to the next, the origins of the place names, geographic features, and other related information. Such encyclopedic documentation began in the early nineteenth century and was common in painting albums of Geumgangsan Mountain in the mid- nineteenth century. The text following the painting of Baekhwaam Hermitage in the Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains documents the reconstruction of the Baekhwaam Hermitage in 1845, which provides crucial evidence for dating the text. Therefore, the owner of the Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains might have written the texts or asked someone else to transcribe them in the mid- or late nineteenth century. In this paper, I have inferred the producer of the Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains to be Kim Eung-hwan based on the painting style and the tradition of drawing scenic spots during official trips. Moreover, its affinity with the Handscroll of Pungak Mountain created by Kim Ha-jong(1793-after 1878) after 1865 is another decisive factor in attributing the album to Kim Eung-hwan. In contrast to the Album of Famous Mountains in Korea by Kim Hong-do, the Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains exerted only a minor influence on other painters. The Handscroll of Pungak Mountain by Kim Ha-jong is the sole example that employs the subject matter from the Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains and follows its painting style. In the Handscroll of Pungak Mountain, Kim Ha-jong demonstrated a painting style completely different from that in the Album of Seas and Mountains that he produced fifty years prior in 1816 for Yi Gwang-mun, the magistrate of Chuncheon. He emphasized the idea of "scholar thoughts" by following the compositions, painterly elements, and depictions of figures in the painting manual style from Kim Eung-hwan's Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains. Kim Ha-jong, a member of the Gaeseong Kim clan and the eldest grandson of Kim Eung-hwan, is presumed to have appreciated the paintings depicted in the nature of Album of Complete Views of Seas and Mountains, which had been passed down within the family, and newly transformed them. Furthermore, the contents and narrative styles of Yi Yu-won's writings attached to the paintings in the Handscroll of Pungak Mountain are similar to those of the fifty-one writings in Kim Eunghwan's album. This suggests a possible influence of the inscriptions in Kim Eung-hwan's album or the original texts from which these inscriptions were quoted upon the writings in Kim Ha-jong's handscroll. However, a closer examination will be needed to determine the order of the transcription of the writings. The Album of Complete View of Seas and Mountains differs from Kim Hong-do's paintings of his official trips and other painting albums he influenced. This album is a siginificant artwork in that it broadens the understanding of the art world of Kim Eung-hwan and illustrates another layer of real scenery landscape paintings in the late eighteenth century.
The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.