• 제목/요약/키워드: real options

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실물옵션평가방법에 의한 광산투자의 가치평가 -우즈베키스탄 구리광산업의 사례연구를 중심으로- (Valuation of Mining Investment Projects by the Real Option Approach - A Case Study of Uzbekistan's Copper Mining Industry -)

  • 무민 마카모브;김동환
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.1634-1647
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    • 2007
  • 대부분의 기업경영자들은 새로운 투자와 현재의 진행 중인 투자 안에 대해서조차도 "투자를 할 것인가, 안할 것인가?" 라는 문제에 자주 직면하게 된다. 이러한 도전은 어떤 투자안의 선택과 이의 확장과 축소, 투자지연과 포기 등을 결정하는데 놓여진다. 본 연구의 진행과정에서 사용된 투자평가 방법은 올바른 투자의사결정을 하는 데 있어서 매우 중요하다. 할인현금흐름법(DCF)/순현재가치법(NPV) 등과 같은 기존의 전통적인 가치평가방법들은 미리 확정된 경로를 가정하고 있다. 그러나 실제적인 투자계획안들은 불확실성에 직면하고 있음으로 경영자들로 하여금 평가의 경로를 수시로 변경시키도록 하게 만든다. 실물옵션 가치평가 접근방법은 다른 전통적인 가치평가 방법들과 비교하여 볼 때 투자의사결정에 고유한 특성인 가변적인 융통성을 함축하고 있다. 실물옵션의 활용은 최근 몇 십년 동안에 많은 산업들의 투자 실무자들 중에서 폭넓게 수용되어져 왔다. 비록 옵션이란 자체가 기업의사결정의 모든 형태에 상존하는 것임에도 불구하고, 아직까지도 몇몇 산업들에서는 적절한 투자가치 평가방법으로 고려되지 않고 있다. 광산업은 특히 수년 동안에 걸쳐 새로운 투자평가 기법을 채택하는데 상대적으로 둔감하였다. 이에 대한 이유의 근거는 명확하지 않다. 하나의 가능한 이유는 광산업종에 있어서 위험의 수준과 위험 형태의 문제이다. 광산업의 위험은 매우 높을 뿐만 아니라, 다른 여타산업과 비교하여 볼 때, 다양한 자연의 위험을 내재하고 있다는 점이다. 따라서 본 논문의 연구의 목적은 광산업에 있어서 실물옵션 분석방법으로 알려진 보다 실적인 투자방법을 통하여 실증적으로 고찰해보고자 하는 것이다. 본 논문은 실물옵션분석모형을 이용하여 구리광산업의 투자가치평가 사례분석방법을 제시한다. 본 연구는 어떻게 기업들이 투자위험을 최소화 할 수 있고, 투자 의사결정에서 가변적 융통성을 행사하며, 기업의 성과를 극대화시킬 수 있는가를, 여러 가지 기존의 방법들 중 실증적 비교 분석을 통하여 실물옵션 평가방법의 우수성을 보여준다.

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J2ME 프로그램의 동적 이벤트 분석기의 구현 (Implementation of Dynamic Event Analysis Tool for J2ME Programs)

  • 최윤정;창병모
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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    • 제33권9호
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    • pp.802-809
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    • 2006
  • J2ME 모바일 프로그램은 모바일 기기가 보편화되면서 그 사용이 증가하고 있으며 J2ME 프로그램은 자원이 제한된 모바일 환경에서 실행되므로 자원의 효율적인 사용이 매우 중요하다. 또한 J2ME 프로그램은 대부분 이벤트-구동 프로그램이며 효과적인 이벤트 관리가 프로그램의 신뢰성 및 효율적인 자원 사용에 많은 영향을 미치며 이벤트 관련 디버깅은 매우 어려운 부분이다. 본 연구에서는 실행 중에 실시간으로 이벤트 발생 및 처리 정보를 보여줄 수 있는 시스템을 설계 개발하였다. 이 시스템은 사용자 옵션에 따라 사용자가 관심 있는 이벤트만을 실행 중에 추적할 수 있으며 실행 후에 이벤트 관련 요약 프로파일 정보를 제공한다.

Case study on seismic retrofit and cost assessment for a school building

  • Miano, Andrea;Chiumiento, Giovanni
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제73권1호
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2020
  • In different high seismic regions around the world, many non-ductile existing reinforced concrete frame buildings, built without adequate seismic detailing requirements, have been damaged or collapsed after past earthquakes. The assessment and the retrofit of these non-ductile concrete structures is crucial theme of research for all the scientific community of engineers. In particular, a careful assessment of the existing building is fundamental for understanding the failure mechanisms that govern the collapse of the structure or the achievement of the recommended limit states. Based on the seismic assessment, the best retrofit strategy can be designed and applied to the structure. A school building located in Avellino province (Italy) is the case study. The analysis of seismic vulnerability carried out on the mentioned building has highlighted deficiencies in both static and seismic load conditions. The retrofit of the building has been designed based on different retrofit options in order to show the real retrofit design developed from the engineers to achieve the seismic safety of the building. The retrofit costs associated to structural operations are calculated for each case and have been summed up to the costs of the in situ tests. The paper shows a real retrofit design case study in which the best solution is chosen based on the results in terms of structural performance and cost among the different retrofit options.

International Multimodal Transport Route Development from Korea to Mongolia

  • Nyamjav, Tsenskhuu;Ha, Min-Ho
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제46권5호
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    • pp.419-426
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    • 2022
  • This study aimed to identify new routes for transporting automobiles from Korea to Mongolia by comparing them with the existing route. At present, a route from the Incheon Port through the Tianjin Port to Zamiin-Uud is commonly used to transport containerized cargo from Korea to Mongolia. This study examined five possible logistics routes from Korea to Mongolia using a time/cost-distance methodology based on real data. Through consecutive discussions with importers and freight forwarders in Mongolia, the potential routes were selected and costs, distance, and lead time were evaluated to provide additional route options for automobile logistics from Korea to Mongolia. The results indicated that each route could be ranked in terms of the total cost while the lead time for all options in the present COVID-19 period is 2 - 4 months, with no difference among the routes. In addition, although the confidence index of all routes was not impressive, route 3 was the most preferred option, followed by route 1. However, the study results cannot provide the answer to the question of "which route is more attractive for transporting automobiles from Korea to Mongolia." This limitation notwithstanding, this study provides real information on the critical factors of distance, cost, and lead time in terms of the selected transportation routes so that importers and exporters can compare the routes in terms of the priority of each factor in uncertain logistics environment.

Scratchpad Memory Architectures and Allocation Algorithms for Hard Real-Time Multicore Processors

  • Liu, Yu;Zhang, Wei
    • Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.51-72
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    • 2015
  • Time predictability is crucial in hard real-time and safety-critical systems. Cache memories, while useful for improving the average-case memory performance, are not time predictable, especially when they are shared in multicore processors. To achieve time predictability while minimizing the impact on performance, this paper explores several time-predictable scratch-pad memory (SPM) based architectures for multicore processors. To support these architectures, we propose the dynamic memory objects allocation based partition, the static allocation based partition, and the static allocation based priority L2 SPM strategy to retain the characteristic of time predictability while attempting to maximize the performance and energy efficiency. The SPM based multicore architectural design and the related allocation methods thus form a comprehensive solution to hard real-time multicore based computing. Our experimental results indicate the strengths and weaknesses of each proposed architecture and the allocation method, which offers interesting on-chip memory design options to enable multicore platforms for hard real-time systems.

A SURVEY ON AMERICAN OPTIONS: OLD APPROACHES AND NEW TRENDS

  • Ahn, Se-Ryoong;Bae, Hyeong-Ohk;Koo, Hyeng-Keun;Lee, Ki-Jung
    • 대한수학회보
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    • 제48권4호
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    • pp.791-812
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    • 2011
  • This is a survey on American options. An American option allows its owner the privilege of early exercise, whereas a European option can be exercised only at expiration. Because of this early exercise privilege American option pricing involves an optimal stopping problem; the price of an American option is given as a free boundary value problem associated with a Black-Scholes type partial differential equation. Up until now there is no simple closed-form solution to the problem, but there have been a variety of approaches which contribute to the understanding of the properties of the price and the early exercise boundary. These approaches typically provide numerical or approximate analytic methods to find the price and the boundary. Topics included in this survey are early approaches(trees, finite difference schemes, and quasi-analytic methods), an analytic method of lines and randomization, a homotopy method, analytic approximation of early exercise boundaries, Monte Carlo methods, and relatively recent topics such as model uncertainty, backward stochastic differential equations, and real options. We also provide open problems whose answers are expected to contribute to American option pricing.

실물옵션 기법을 응용한 부동산 가치평가 연구: 인구구조 변화를 고려하여 (A Study on the Valuation of Real Estate Using the Applies Real Option Model Considering Population Structure Changes)

  • 구승환;왕핑;장성용
    • 경영과학
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2014
  • This study presents a new real estate value analysis model considering the changes in the population structure. We propose a new model that takes advantage of the binomial option model one of the techniques of real options and considers the changes in the population structure. The real estate market price data of Seoul city from year 2001 to 2012 were extracted and the correlation analysis between real estate prices and changes in the population structure was performed. The result shows that they have positive correlation with one year time lag. The coefficient between the real estate prices and demographic changes was estimated using the OLS analysis and included in the traditional binomial option model to calculate the value of the property. It is assumed for the future price prediction that real estate invested in Seoul in January, 2013 will be sold within five years. Analysis result shows that the values of real estate in September of 2013 were predicted as 583.5 million won in the new model and as 582.4 million won in the traditional model. This reflects that the new model considering the change of population change gives better realistic performance than the traditional one.

여객선 기관실의 설계 옵션 평가를 위한 결정 지원 프레임 워크 (A Design Decision Support Framework for Evaluation of Design Options in Passenger Ship Engine Room)

  • 김수웅
    • 한국기계기술학회지
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2011
  • Most real world design evaluation and risk-based decision support combine quantitative and qualitative (linguistic) variables. Decision making based on conventional mathematics that combines qualitative and quantitative concepts always exhibit difficulty in modelling actual problems. The successful selection process for choosing a design/procurement proposal is based on a high degree of technical integrity, safety levels and low costs in construction, corrective measures, maintenance, operation, inspection and preventive measures. In this paper, a design decision support framework using a composite structure methodology grounded in approximate reasoning approach and evidential reasoning method is suggested for design evaluation of machinery space of a ship engine room at the initial stages. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed framework.

DEVELOPMENT OF VIRTUAL PLAYGROUND SYSTEM BY MARKERLESS AUGUMENTED REALITY AND PHYSICS ENGINE

  • Takahashi, Masafumi;Miyata, Kazunori
    • 한국방송∙미디어공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방송공학회 2009년도 IWAIT
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    • pp.834-837
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    • 2009
  • Augmented Reality (AR) is a useful technology for various industrial systems. This paper suggests a new playground system which uses markerless AR technology. We developed a virtual playground system that can learn physics and kinematics from the physical play of people. The virtual playground is a space in which real scenes and CG are mixed. As for the CG objects, physics of the real world is used. This is realized by a physics engine. Therefore it is necessary to analyze information from cameras, so that CG reflects the real world. Various games options are possible using real world images and physics simulation in the virtual playground. We think that the system is effective for education. Because CG behaves according to physics simulation, users can learn physics and kinematics from the system. We think that the system can take its place in the field of education through entertainment.

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실물옵션을 이용한 SNG 사업투자의 경제성 평가 연구 (A Study on Economic Evaluation of SNG Project using Real Option Valuation Model)

  • 강승진;홍진표
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.319-335
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    • 2014
  • This study attempts to suggest an economic analysis model for SNG projects, which can reflect the future uncertainty objectively and applies the real option valuation incorporating the flexible investment decision. Based on this analysis model, net present value and internal rate of return were estimated by using preliminary feasibility study report of SNG project. And economic evaluation of SNG project was performed with real option valuation using binomial option model. Through this, the difference of analysis results between the real option valuation model and the discounted cash flow model were compared and the usefulness of the real option valuation model was confirmed. From the actual proof analysis, it is confirmed that the real option valuation model showed higher SNG project value than the discounted cash flow model did. It was confirmed that by applying the real option valuation model, economic analysis can be performed on not only the current straightforward SNG project, but also various future portfolios having options such as expansion, modification, or decommission.