• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 2th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.563-572
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• 2007

Transportation infrastructure is critical to economic growth of a country such as China. Careful evaluation of investments in traffic infrastructure projects is therefore pertinent. As traditional evaluation methods do not consider the uncertainty of future cash flows and mobility during project execution, the real option approach is gradually gaining recognition in the context of valuing construction and infrastructure projects. However, many of the cases only evaluate individual options separately although multiple options often exist in a typical large infrastructure project. Using a highway project in China as a case study, this paper first evaluates a deferment option and a growth option embedded in the project. Subsequently, the values are combined using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. It is found that the combined value is less than the sum of the two option values. This finding is consistent with the theoretical observations given in past real option literature despite the use of a different approach.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.144-156
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• 2012

In recent years, advanced countries in energy sector are emphasizing the importance of the development and deployment of renewable energy to cope with the global environmental crisis such as depletion of fossil energy, climate convention to control emissions of greenhouse gases. In this paper, we evaluate the economic value of the investment in new and renewable energy R&D in Korea and optimal deployment timing of new and renewable energy by using the real option approach. The real option model adopted in this paper assumes that a decision maker has a compound option to abandon, deployment, or continue the R&D. As a result by using empirical data of Korea, it is found that there exists a considerable amount of positive real option value (ROV) in the investment of new and renewable energy R&D while its net present value (NPV) calculated by traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) model shows negative value.

• 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국기술혁신학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.181-198
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• 2002

This article describes a methodology for evaluating huge aerospace R&D investments using the real options pricing method. Option pricing has been proposed as a useful approach for modeling investment in R&D. Two important features of R&D investments are that an R&D project takes time to complete and that the outcome of R&D investments is highly uncertain. This makes the analysis of R&D investments difficult. Traditional tools for project evaluation, like IRR or the NPV, are inadequate for coping with the high uncertainty. Hence, In this article I propose a log-transformed binomal lattice method, and it will show that option pricing might be an adequate framework for evaluating such types of aerospace investments.

• 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국기술혁신학회 2001년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.307-337
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• 2001

In this paper, we propose the valuation frame of the IT(Information Technology) ventures using ROV(Real Options Valuation) model. Generally, ROV can comprises the traditional valuation method such as DCF(Discounted Cash Flow), which can measure only the tangible value of a firm from the expected future earnings, in that ROV can additionally measure the intangible value such as the strategic value of a firm in the uncertain environment. We set up the hypothetic IT venture future investment plan and assume that there are a growth option and a switching option consequently along the investment time horizon, which are caused by each characteristics of ventures and IT technologies, especially modularity. In the case that there are several embedded real options in the firm's investment plan in a row, we should apply the compound option pricing model as a real option valuation model in order to consider the value interaction between real options. In an addition, we present the results of optimal investment timing analysis using real options approach and compare them. with those of the original assumed investment timing.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.117-131
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• 2017

We question whether Korean IT managers consider real options to reduce risks of cloud service implementation. This work investigates the impact of technology risk, relationship risk, economy risk, security risk upon the intention of IT managers to utilize abandon & expansion options. We also analyze moderation effect of centralization level of decision making between these risks and the utilization of real options. Using the survey questionnaire, we empirically find that technology risk, relationship risk and security risk have significant effect upon abandon option and technology risk, relationship risk, and economy upon expansion option. We also find the evidence that centralization level moderates some risks and the direction of moderation effect is to offset the effect of risks on intention to utilize real options.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.386-389
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• 2013

Under climate change and urbanization, rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems are emerging as an alternative source of water supply because of growing concern about water sustainability. RWH systems can satisfy the various watering needs and provide the environmental benefits of lessening the damages from flood, drought, and runoff. The economic success of a RWH system is vitally concerned with the determination of the design capacity of storage tank to be built in the system. The design capacity is determined by the factors of average annual rainfall, period of water scarcity, and water price during the whole life-cycles. Despite the high uncertainties inherent in these factors, the current engineering design of RWH system construction often assumes that storage tanks should be built all at once. This assumption implicitly ignores the managerial flexibility in responds to the future as new information comes out-the right to build storage tanks stage by stage depending on the evolution of demand. This study evaluates the value of a multistage storage tank construction using a real option approach. A case study involving a typical RWH system construction in Jeonju, the Republic of Korea is conducted. The managerial flexibility obtained from the real option perspective allows engineers to develop investment strategies to better cope with the issue of water sustainability.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.119-138
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• 2019

This work examines whether IT managers adopt of real options such as defer, expand, contract, and abandon in order to cope with ERP risks, which include technological risk, relationship risk with SW vendors, economic risk, and security risk. We collect data of logistics firms in Seoul and its suburbs in 2018 to empirically validate the effect of risks upon the adoption of real options. The results suggest that IT managers adopt all 4 options when facing economic risk and adopt contract and abandon options only when facing security risk. Additionally, we find that IT managers prefers expand option and avoid abandon option when they think ERP compatibility is high.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.43-61
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• 2015

The valuation of patents is very important, since technology competitiveness is crucial for firms to maintain global competitiveness. But, the patent valuation is difficult and challenging because of the uncertainty affecting their returns. Hence, we propose a patent valuation method by incorporating game theory into the real option model, which can not only potentially recognizes the effect of uncertainty on patent value, but also consider investment decision in a competitive market, as a game between firms. With the model, we can consider dynamic strategy involving an option of patent leveraging strategies enabling the firm to switch among compete, cooperate, or wait modes under different demand or competitive advantage condition.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.14-25
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• 2005

Defense offset is considered to be all effective way of acquiring defense critical technologies and arms components as a counter-trade obligation ill defense acquisition contracts. Although arranging the offset contracts is wide]y perceived as necessary, there hardly exists an acceptable model of valuation of the offset technology. By undertaking the technology valuation approach and applying the option approach tn the offset program, we present an offset technology valuation model that maximizes social net benefit of the countries transferring the technology. This article applies our model to an actual case of defense technology transfer in the Republic of Korea. The contribution of this paper is in applying the option approach to the valuation of defense onset technology, providing for the additional flexibility to tile analysis. Our research suggests several policy implications that can be applied to the actual process of defense offsets. Our results elucidate managers' role and responsibilities in designing such a process by applying option approaches.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.581-605
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• 2018

In the soft drink industry, especially small and medium enterprises in Japan, there is a possibility of conversion from a labor-intensive industry to a capital-intensive. The demand for soft drinks may not be satisfied in the summer because the supply is too low to meet the demand. To address this situation, this paper proposes optimal investment that integrates demand uncertainty, based on real options approach (ROA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. Two alternative options are compared and evaluated. One is the Bermudan option: to employ additional workers to elevate efficiency in summer and laying off in winter, this attitude is repeated each year. The other is the American option: to replace equipment to increase machine ability throughout the year. Results in ROA show that the highest improvement is gained if the two options are in a symbiotic relationship. Soft drink producers should search for replacing equipment, using the employees repeatedly. A temporary decision is not equal to an infinite decision.