• Title/Summary/Keyword: rate of votes earned

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Estimating the Interim Rate of Votes Earned Based on the Exit Poll Results during the Coverage of Ballot Results by Broadcasters (선거 개표방송에서 출구조사 자료를 활용한 중간 득표율 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yoon-Dong;Park, Jin-Woo
    • Survey Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2011
  • During major elections, three terrestrial broadcasting stations in Korea have covered the progresses of election results by announcing the simple sum of ballot counts of all ballot counting stations. The current approach, however, does not properly reflect the actual ballot count differences by ballot counting location, leading to cause unnecessary but possible confusions. In addition, the current coverage approach restricts the broadcasters from using regional poll data gained through exit polls by letting them to use the significant information on a one-off purpose to announce the initial prediction of the poll results and to fully disregard the exit poll results during the ballot counting process. Based on the understanding, this paper is designed to suggest a Bayesian approach to consolidate the exit poll results with the progressive ballot counting results and announce them as such. The suggested consolidation approach is expected to mitigate or avoid the possible confusions that may arise in connection with the different ballot counting paces by ballot counting station.

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