• Title/Summary/Keyword: random variable

Search Result 904, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques in Urban Weather Prediction using Air Quality Sensor Data (실외공기측정기 자료를 이용한 도심 기상 예측 기계학습 모형 비교)

  • Jong-Chan Park;Heon Jin Park
    • The Journal of Bigdata
    • /
    • v.6 no.2
    • /
    • pp.39-49
    • /
    • 2021
  • Recently, large and diverse weather data are being collected by sensors from various sources. Efforts to predict the concentration of fine dust through machine learning are being made everywhere, and this study intends to compare PM10 and PM2.5 prediction models using data from 840 outdoor air meters installed throughout the city. Information can be provided in real time by predicting the concentration of fine dust after 5 minutes, and can be the basis for model development after 10 minutes, 30 minutes, and 1 hour. Data preprocessing was performed, such as noise removal and missing value replacement, and a derived variable that considers temporal and spatial variables was created. The parameters of the model were selected through the response surface method. XGBoost, Random Forest, and Deep Learning (Multilayer Perceptron) are used as predictive models to check the difference between fine dust concentration and predicted values, and to compare the performance between models.

Estimation of heritabilities and additive genetic correlations for reproduction traits in swine: insights for tropical commercial production systems using multiple trait animal models

  • Udomsak Noppibool;Thanathip Suwanasopee;Mauricio A. Elzo;Skorn Koonawootrittriron
    • Animal Bioscience
    • /
    • v.36 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1785-1795
    • /
    • 2023
  • Objective: This study was to estimate heritabilities, additive genetic correlations, and phenotypic correlations between number of piglets born alive (NBA), litter birth weight (LTBW), number of piglets weaned (NPW) and litter weaning weight (LTWW) in different parities of Landrace (L), Yorkshire (Y), Landrace×Yorkshire (LY), and Yorkshire×Landrace (YL) sows in a commercial swine operation in Northern Thailand. Methods: Two models were utilized, a single trait repeatability model (RM) and a multiple trait animal model (MTM). The RM assumed reproductive records from different parities to be repeated values of the same trait, whereas the MTM assumed these records to be different traits. The two models accounted for the fixed effects of farrowing year-season, genetic group of the sow, heterosis, and age at first farrowing, and the random effects of sow, boar, and residual. Results: Heritability estimates from RM were 0.02±0.01 for NBA, 0.10±0.01 for LTBW, 0.04±0.01 for NPW, and 0.11±0.01 for LTWW. Heritability estimates from MTM fluctuated across parities, ranging from 0.04±0.01 in parity 2 to 0.09±0.02 in parity 4 for NBA, 0.07±0.02 in parity 2 to 0.16±0.02 in parity 3 for LTBW, 0.04±0.02 in parity 4 to 0.08±0.01 in parity 1 for NPW, and 0.16±0.02 in parity 1 to 0.20±0.02 in parity 2 for LTWW. Additive genetic correlation estimates from MTM were also variable, ranging from 0.29±0.24 between NBA in parity 1 and NBA in parity 2 to 0.99±0.05 between LTWW in parity 3 and LTWW in parity 4. Conclusion: The findings of this study highlight the advantage of using MTM for the genetic improvement of reproductive traits in swine and contribute to the development of sustainable swine breeding programs in Thailand.

Hybrid machine learning with HHO method for estimating ultimate shear strength of both rectangular and circular RC columns

  • Quang-Viet Vu;Van-Thanh Pham;Dai-Nhan Le;Zhengyi Kong;George Papazafeiropoulos;Viet-Ngoc Pham
    • Steel and Composite Structures
    • /
    • v.52 no.2
    • /
    • pp.145-163
    • /
    • 2024
  • This paper presents six novel hybrid machine learning (ML) models that combine support vector machines (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and categorical gradient boosting (CGB) with the Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO) algorithm. These models, namely HHO-SVM, HHO-DT, HHO-RF, HHO-GB, HHO-XGB, and HHO-CGB, are designed to predict the ultimate strength of both rectangular and circular reinforced concrete (RC) columns. The prediction models are established using a comprehensive database consisting of 325 experimental data for rectangular columns and 172 experimental data for circular columns. The ML model hyperparameters are optimized through a combination of cross-validation technique and the HHO. The performance of the hybrid ML models is evaluated and compared using various metrics, ultimately identifying the HHO-CGB model as the top-performing model for predicting the ultimate shear strength of both rectangular and circular RC columns. The mean R-value and mean a20-index are relatively high, reaching 0.991 and 0.959, respectively, while the mean absolute error and root mean square error are low (10.302 kN and 27.954 kN, respectively). Another comparison is conducted with four existing formulas to further validate the efficiency of the proposed HHO-CGB model. The Shapely Additive Explanations method is applied to analyze the contribution of each variable to the output within the HHO-CGB model, providing insights into the local and global influence of variables. The analysis reveals that the depth of the column, length of the column, and axial loading exert the most significant influence on the ultimate shear strength of RC columns. A user-friendly graphical interface tool is then developed based on the HHO-CGB to facilitate practical and cost-effective usage.

The Structural Relationships between Control Types over Salespeople, Their Responses, and Job Satisfaction - Mediating Roles of Role Clarity and Self-Efficacy - (영업사원에 대한 통제유형, 반응, 그리고 직무만족 간의 구조적 관계 - 역할명확성과 자기효능감의 매개효과 -)

  • Yoo, Dong-Keun;Lim, Jong-Koo;Lim, Ji-Hoon
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.23-49
    • /
    • 2007
  • Salespeople act at the point of MOT with customers and deliver the enterprise's message to the customers. They build up relationships with customers as well as deliver the customer's message to the enterprise. The salespeople's activity at the point of MOT with the customers and the degree of satisfaction of the customers' needs will affect the customers' attitude toward the enterprise, brand loyalty, and retention intention. Ultimately, it will influence the enterprise's financial performance. The control of salespe1ople is one of the most interesting topics of marketing. This research investigates the relationships of the control types over salespeople(positive/negative outcome control, positive/negative behavior control) and job satisfaction and their mediating variables. The mediating variables in the relationships have been identified as outcome/behavior-related role clarity and self-efficacy. The purpose of this study is more specifically as follows: First, it investigate how the perception of salespeople control types affect role-clarity. Second, it examines how the perception of salespeople control types influence self-efficacy. Third, it investigate the mediating role of role-clarity between the perception of salespeople control types and self-efficacy. Fourth, it investigates how role-clarity affect self-efficacy and job satisfaction. Finally, it will investigates how self-efficacy influences job satisfaction. Data were collected from the pharmaceutical industry salespeople and analyzed by SPSS 12.0 and AMOS 6.0. The data were collected by 400 respondents and 377 valid questionnaires were analyzed. The results are summarized as follows: First, positive/negative outcome controls had a positive relationship with outcome-related role clarity. Also positive behavior control had a positive effect on behavior-related role clarity, but negative behavior control didn't influence behavior-related role clarity. Second, positive outcome control influenced self-efficacy positively, but positive behavior control didn't have a positive effect on self-efficacy. In addition negative outcome control and negative behavior control had a positive effect on self-efficacy due to the mediating role of outcome-related and behavior-related role clarity. Third, outcome-related role clarity and behavior-related role clarity influenced self-efficacy positively. Behavior-related role clarity had a positive effect on job satisfaction, but outcome-related role clarity didn't influence job satisfaction. Finally, self-efficacy didn't have any effect on job satisfaction. The contributions of this study are as follows: First, existing studies have investigated the direct causal relationship between salespeoples' control type and performance, but this study investigates the structural causality between salespeoples' control types, responses, and performances. Second, this study found the mediating role of outcome-related/behavior-related role-clarity between outcome/behavior control and self-efficacy. Finally, the findings of this study further insight to existing studies on the relationship between job satisfaction and self-efficacy. The confidence of salespeoples' task influenced job satisfaction positively in existing articles,field studies, but the relationship between these two variables was not significant in this study. This means that there can be a different relationship between confidence and job satisfaction according to salespeoples' business. That is, the business environment may not be satisfying, even if the salespeople say that they have ability and confidence about their business. This means that able salespeople who have ability and confidence about their business are not satisfied with their job advancement in the company. Therefore, enterprise need to provide training that can establish a business environment that can satisfy the salespeole's expectation level which will secure good salespeople. This study may have limitation when applied to future studies. First,in this study as with existing studies it investigates the control level that salespeople feel is being measured. Actuality, the control level that a manager enforces and the control level that salespeople perceive when one is late can be different. There is need to measure lateness from both the perspective of the manager and salespeople should be done to supplement this study in the future Second, this study used variables that were connected with action result but salespeople's job satisfaction is due to the result of control. But, focusing on result of control can provide a more important financial result than sales performance. This study is also limited in that it did not consider financial result by result of control. Further studies on this will need to be done in the future. Third, this study may have a further limitation,because the investigation was restricted to pharmaceutical salespeople selling to hospitals. It is necessary to execute investigations in various industries to increase the generalization of the study findings Fourth, in this study, role clarity and self-efficacy by response variable for control and considered job satisfaction by outcome variable of control was considered. But, can other variables be considered beside response variable and result variable for control? For example, can financial affairs and change of post by outcome variable along with business stress by response variable for control be considered? Therefore, future studies need to consider various control variables. Finally, there is limited supporting research in the field of marketing which restricts the generalization of the study finding along with collecting material through random sampling of a limited size. This research summarizes the research in this area, the difference from the previous research, and provides a discussion of its limitations and the need and direction for further future research.

  • PDF

Estimation of Fractional Urban Tree Canopy Cover through Machine Learning Using Optical Satellite Images (기계학습을 이용한 광학 위성 영상 기반의 도시 내 수목 피복률 추정)

  • Sejeong Bae ;Bokyung Son ;Taejun Sung ;Yeonsu Lee ;Jungho Im ;Yoojin Kang
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.39 no.5_3
    • /
    • pp.1009-1029
    • /
    • 2023
  • Urban trees play a vital role in urban ecosystems,significantly reducing impervious surfaces and impacting carbon cycling within the city. Although previous research has demonstrated the efficacy of employing artificial intelligence in conjunction with airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to generate urban tree information, the availability and cost constraints associated with LiDAR data pose limitations. Consequently, this study employed freely accessible, high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery (i.e., Sentinel-2 data) to estimate fractional tree canopy cover (FTC) within the urban confines of Suwon, South Korea, employing machine learning techniques. This study leveraged a median composite image derived from a time series of Sentinel-2 images. In order to account for the diverse land cover found in urban areas, the model incorporated three types of input variables: average (mean) and standard deviation (std) values within a 30-meter grid from 10 m resolution of optical indices from Sentinel-2, and fractional coverage for distinct land cover classes within 30 m grids from the existing level 3 land cover map. Four schemes with different combinations of input variables were compared. Notably, when all three factors (i.e., mean, std, and fractional cover) were used to consider the variation of landcover in urban areas(Scheme 4, S4), the machine learning model exhibited improved performance compared to using only the mean of optical indices (Scheme 1). Of the various models proposed, the random forest (RF) model with S4 demonstrated the most remarkable performance, achieving R2 of 0.8196, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0749, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.1022. The std variable exhibited the highest impact on model outputs within the heterogeneous land covers based on the variable importance analysis. This trained RF model with S4 was then applied to the entire Suwon region, consistently delivering robust results with an R2 of 0.8702, MAE of 0.0873, and RMSE of 0.1335. The FTC estimation method developed in this study is expected to offer advantages for application in various regions, providing fundamental data for a better understanding of carbon dynamics in urban ecosystems in the future.

Analysis of promising countries for export using parametric and non-parametric methods based on ERGM: Focusing on the case of information communication and home appliance industries (ERGM 기반의 모수적 및 비모수적 방법을 활용한 수출 유망국가 분석: 정보통신 및 가전 산업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Jinny;Yoo, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.175-196
    • /
    • 2022
  • Information and communication and home appliance industries, which were one of South Korea's main industries, are gradually losing their export share as their export competitiveness is weakening. This study objectively analyzed export competitiveness and suggested export-promising countries in order to help South Korea's information communication and home appliance industries improve exports. In this study, network properties, centrality, and structural hole analysis were performed during network analysis to evaluate export competitiveness. In order to select promising export countries, we proposed a new variable that can take into account the characteristics of an already established International Trade Network (ITN), that is, the Global Value Chain (GVC), in addition to the existing economic factors. The conditional log-odds for individual links derived from the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) in the analysis of the cross-border trade network were assumed as a proxy variable that can indicate the export potential. In consideration of the possibility of ERGM linkage, a parametric approach and a non-parametric approach were used to recommend export-promising countries, respectively. In the parametric method, a regression analysis model was developed to predict the export value of the information and communication and home appliance industries in South Korea by additionally considering the link-specific characteristics of the network derived from the ERGM to the existing economic factors. Also, in the non-parametric approach, an abnormality detection algorithm based on the clustering method was used, and a promising export country was proposed as a method of finding outliers that deviate from two peers. According to the research results, the structural characteristic of the export network of the industry was a network with high transferability. Also, according to the centrality analysis result, South Korea's influence on exports was weak compared to its size, and the structural hole analysis result showed that export efficiency was weak. According to the model for recommending promising exporting countries proposed by this study, in parametric analysis, Iran, Ireland, North Macedonia, Angola, and Pakistan were promising exporting countries, and in nonparametric analysis, Qatar, Luxembourg, Ireland, North Macedonia and Pakistan were analyzed as promising exporting countries. There were differences in some countries in the two models. The results of this study revealed that the export competitiveness of South Korea's information and communication and home appliance industries in GVC was not high compared to the size of exports, and thus showed that exports could be further reduced. In addition, this study is meaningful in that it proposed a method to find promising export countries by considering GVC networks with other countries as a way to increase export competitiveness. This study showed that, from a policy point of view, the international trade network of the information communication and home appliance industries has an important mutual relationship, and although transferability is high, it may not be easily expanded to a three-party relationship. In addition, it was confirmed that South Korea's export competitiveness or status was lower than the export size ranking. This paper suggested that in order to improve the low out-degree centrality, it is necessary to increase exports to Italy or Poland, which had significantly higher in-degrees. In addition, we argued that in order to improve the centrality of out-closeness, it is necessary to increase exports to countries with particularly high in-closeness. In particular, it was analyzed that Morocco, UAE, Argentina, Russia, and Canada should pay attention as export countries. This study also provided practical implications for companies expecting to expand exports. The results of this study argue that companies expecting export expansion need to pay attention to countries with a relatively high potential for export expansion compared to the existing export volume by country. In particular, for companies that export daily necessities, countries that should pay attention to the population are presented, and for companies that export high-end or durable products, countries with high GDP, or purchasing power, relatively low exports are presented. Since the process and results of this study can be easily extended and applied to other industries, it is also expected to develop services that utilize the results of this study in the public sector.

Predicting the Effects of Rooftop Greening and Evaluating CO2 Sequestration in Urban Heat Island Areas Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning (위성영상과 머신러닝 활용 도시열섬 지역 옥상녹화 효과 예측과 이산화탄소 흡수량 평가)

  • Minju Kim;Jeong U Park;Juhyeon Park;Jisoo Park;Chang-Uk Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.39 no.5_1
    • /
    • pp.481-493
    • /
    • 2023
  • In high-density urban areas, the urban heat island effect increases urban temperatures, leading to negative impacts such as worsened air pollution, increased cooling energy consumption, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. In urban environments where it is difficult to secure additional green spaces, rooftop greening is an efficient greenhouse gas reduction strategy. In this study, we not only analyzed the current status of the urban heat island effect but also utilized high-resolution satellite data and spatial information to estimate the available rooftop greening area within the study area. We evaluated the mitigation effect of the urban heat island phenomenon and carbon sequestration capacity through temperature predictions resulting from rooftop greening. To achieve this, we utilized WorldView-2 satellite data to classify land cover in the urban heat island areas of Busan city. We developed a prediction model for temperature changes before and after rooftop greening using machine learning techniques. To assess the degree of urban heat island mitigation due to changes in rooftop greening areas, we constructed a temperature change prediction model with temperature as the dependent variable using the random forest technique. In this process, we built a multiple regression model to derive high-resolution land surface temperatures for training data using Google Earth Engine, combining Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite data. Additionally, we evaluated carbon sequestration based on rooftop greening areas using a carbon absorption capacity per plant. The results of this study suggest that the developed satellite-based urban heat island assessment and temperature change prediction technology using Random Forest models can be applied to urban heat island-vulnerable areas with potential for expansion.

Study on water quality prediction in water treatment plants using AI techniques (AI 기법을 활용한 정수장 수질예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Kang, Yujin;Song, Jinwoo;Kim, Juhwan;Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Soojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.57 no.3
    • /
    • pp.151-164
    • /
    • 2024
  • In water treatment plants supplying potable water, the management of chlorine concentration in water treatment processes involving pre-chlorination or intermediate chlorination requires process control. To address this, research has been conducted on water quality prediction techniques utilizing AI technology. This study developed an AI-based predictive model for automating the process control of chlorine disinfection, targeting the prediction of residual chlorine concentration downstream of sedimentation basins in water treatment processes. The AI-based model, which learns from past water quality observation data to predict future water quality, offers a simpler and more efficient approach compared to complex physicochemical and biological water quality models. The model was tested by predicting the residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basins at Plant, using multiple regression models and AI-based models like Random Forest and LSTM, and the results were compared. For optimal prediction of residual chlorine concentration, the input-output structure of the AI model included the residual chlorine concentration upstream of the sedimentation basin, turbidity, pH, water temperature, electrical conductivity, inflow of raw water, alkalinity, NH3, etc. as independent variables, and the desired residual chlorine concentration of the effluent from the sedimentation basin as the dependent variable. The independent variables were selected from observable data at the water treatment plant, which are influential on the residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basin. The analysis showed that, for Plant, the model based on Random Forest had the lowest error compared to multiple regression models, neural network models, model trees, and other Random Forest models. The optimal predicted residual chlorine concentration downstream of the sedimentation basin presented in this study is expected to enable real-time control of chlorine dosing in previous treatment stages, thereby enhancing water treatment efficiency and reducing chemical costs.

The Effect of Structured Information on the Sleep Amount of Patients Undergoing Open Heart Surgery (계획된 간호 정보가 수면량에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 -개심술 환자를 중심으로-)

  • 이소우
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-26
    • /
    • 1982
  • The main purpose of this study was to test the effect of the structured information on the sleep amount of the patients undergoing open heart surgery. This study has specifically addressed to the Following two basic research questions: (1) Would the structed in formation influence in the reduction of sleep disturbance related to anxiety and Physical stress before and after the operation? and (2) that would be the effects of the structured information on the level of preoperative state anxiety, the hormonal change, and the degree of behavioral change in the patients undergoing an open heart surgery? A Quasi-experimental research was designed to answer these questions with one experimental group and one control group. Subjects in both groups were matched as closely as possible to avoid the effect of the differences inherent to the group characteristics, Baseline data were also. collected on both groups for 7 days prior to the experiment and found that subjects in both groups had comparable sleep patterns, trait anxiety, hormonal levels and behavioral level. A structured information as an experimental input was given to the subjects in the experimental group only. Data were collected and compared between the experimental group and the control group on the sleep amount of the consecutive pre and post operative days, on preoperative state anxiety level, and on hormonal and behavioral changes. To test the effectiveness of the structured information, two main hypotheses and three sub-hypotheses were formulated as follows; Main hypothesis 1: Experimental group which received structured information will have more sleep amount than control group without structured information in the night before the open heart surgery. Main hypothesis 2: Experimental group with structured information will have more sleep, amount than control group without structured information during the week following the open heart surgery Sub-hypothesis 1: Experimental group with structured information will be lower in the level of State anxiety than control group without structured information in the night before the open heart surgery. Sub-hypothesis 2 : Experimental group with structured information will have lower hormonal level than control group without stuctured information on the 5th day after the open heart surgery Sub-hypothesis 3: Experimental group with structured information will be lower in the behavioral change level than control group without structured information during the week after the open heart surgery. The research was conducted in a national university hospital in Seoul, Korea. The 53 Subjects who participated in the study were systematically divided into experimental group and control group which was decided by random sampling method. Among 53 subjects, 26 were placed in the experimental group and 27 in the control group. Instruments; (1) Structed information: Structured information as an independent variable was constructed by the researcher on the basis of Roy's adaptation model consisting of physiologic needs, self-concept, role function and interdependence needs as related to the sleep and of operational procedures. (2) Sleep amount measure: Sleep amount as main dependent variable was measured by trained nurses through observation on the basis of the established criteria, such as closed or open eyes, regular or irregular respiration, body movement, posture, responses to the light and question, facial expressions and self report after sleep. (3) State anxiety measure: State Anxiety as a sub-dependent variable was measured by Spi-elberger's STAI Anxiety scale, (4) Hormornal change measure: Hormone as a sub-dependent variable was measured by the cortisol level in plasma. (5) Behavior change measure: Behavior as a sub-dependent variable was measured by the Behavior and Mood Rating Scale by Wyatt. The data were collected over a period of four months, from June to October 1981, after the pretest period of two months. For the analysis of the data and test for the hypotheses, the t-test with mean differences and analysis of covariance was used. The result of the test for instruments show as follows: (1) STAI measurement for trait and state anxiety as analyzed by Cronbachs alpha coefficient analysis for item analysis and reliability showed the reliability level at r= .90 r= .91 respectively. (2) Behavior and Mood Rating Scale measurement was analyzed by means of Principal Component Analysis technique. Seven factors retained were anger, anxiety, hyperactivity, depression, bizarre behavior, suspicious behavior and emotional withdrawal. Cumulative percentage of each factor was 71.3%. The result of the test for hypotheses show as follows; (1) Main hypothesis, was not supported. The experimental group has 282 minutes of sleep as compared to the 255 minutes of sleep by the control group. Thus the sleep amount was higher in experimental group than in control group, however, the difference was not statistically significant at .05 level. (2) Main hypothesis 2 was not supported. The mean sleep amount of the experimental group and control group were 297 minutes and 278 minutes respectively Therefore, the experimental group had more sleep amount as compared to the control group, however, the difference was not statistically significant at .05 level. Thus, the main hypothesis 2 was not supported. (3) Sub-hypothesis 1 was not supported. The mean state anxiety of the experimental group and control group were 42.3, 43.9 in scores. Thus, the experimental group had slightly lower state anxiety level than control group, howe-ver, the difference was not statistically significant at .05 level. (4) Sub-hypothesis 2 was not supported. . The mean hormonal level of the experimental group and control group were 338 ㎍ and 440 ㎍ respectively. Thus, the experimental group showed decreased hormonal level than the control group, however, the difference was not statistically significant at .05 level. (5) Sub-hypothesis 3 was supported. The mean behavioral level of the experimental group and control group were 29.60 and 32.00 respectively in score. Thus, the experimental group showed lower behavioral change level than the control group. The difference was statistically significant at .05 level. In summary, the structured information did not influence the sleep amount, state anxiety or hormonal level of the subjects undergoing an open heart surgery at a statistically significant level, however, it showed a definite trends in their relationships, not least to mention its significant effect shown on behavioral change level. It can further be speculated that a great degree of individual differences in the variables such as sleep amount, state anxiety and fluctuation in hormonal level may partly be responsible for the statistical insensitivity to the experimentation.

  • PDF

Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.67-83
    • /
    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.