• 제목/요약/키워드: rainfalls

검색결과 368건 처리시간 0.022초

Log-Pearson Type III 및 GEV분포모형에 의한 강우의 지점 및 지역빈도 비교분석 (Comparative Analysis of regional and at-site analysis for the design rainfall by Log-Pearson Type III and GEV Distribution)

  • 류경식;이순혁
    • 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국농공학회 2003년도 학술발표논문집
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    • pp.443-446
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to draw design rainfall for the regional design rainfall derived by the optimal distribution and method of frequency analysis. The design rainfalls were calculated by the regional and at-site analysis for Log-Pearson type III and GEV distributions and were compared with Relative efficiency(RE) which is ratio of Relative root-mean-square error(RRMSE) by the regional and at-site analysis for Log-Pearson type III and GEV distributions. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the regions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis for GEV distribution and design rainfall maps were drawn by GIS techniques.

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3변수 확률분포에 의한 설계강우량 추정 (Estimation of Design Rainfall Using 3 Parameter Probability Distributions)

  • 이순혁;맹승진;류경식
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2004년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.595-598
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    • 2004
  • This research seeks to derive the design rainfalls through the L-moment with the test of homogeneity, independence and outlier of data on annual maximum daily rainfall at 38 rainfall stations in Korea. To select the appropriate distribution of annual maximum daily rainfall data by the rainfall stations, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO), Generalized Pareto (GPA), Generalized Normal (GNO) and Pearson Type 3 (PT3) probability distributions were applied and their aptness were judged using an L-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. Parameters of appropriate distributions were estimated from the observed and simulated annual maximum daily rainfall using Monte Carlo techniques. Design rainfalls were finally derived by GEV distribution, which was proved to be more appropriate than the other distributions.

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강원도 지역의 토석류 피해사례 및 대책공법 연구 (Debris flow case study and remediation in Kangwon Province)

  • 장범수;최승일;최우경;이종훈;유병옥
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.392-401
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    • 2006
  • In the July of 2006, devastating rainfalls ravaged the terrain in the province of Kangwon. These rainfalls resulted in debris flows, landslide and overflow over the habitat. Following these events, the urgent field study and countermeasures were to be needed and several methods were indicated. At each site, field observations were made and the properties of the channel and debris flow were broadly characterized. Debris flows are a natural hazard which looks like a combination of flood, land and rock slide. The same goes for that case, debris flow has been reported frequently overseas and the extent of damages has been increased. But the hazards "debris flow" is still insufficiently researched and futhermore debris flows are very hard to predict. In this paper, the general overview of the debris flow problem and the mitigation method will be presented

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풍화화강토 사면에서 강우로 인한 모관흡수력 변화에 대한 실험 연구 (In-situ Monitoring of Matric Suctions in a Weathered Granite Soil Slope)

  • 이인모;조우성;김영욱;성상규
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2002년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2002
  • Rainfall-induced landslides in a weathered granite soil slope have mostly relative shallow slip surfaces above the groundwater table The pore-water pressure of soil above the groundwater table is usually negative. This negative pore-water pressure(or matric suction) has been found to make a large contribution to the slope stability. Therefore, the variation of in-situ matric suction profiles with time in a soil slope should be understood. In this study, a field measurement program was carried out from June to August, 2001 to monitor in-situ matric suctions and volumetric water contents in a weathered granite soil slope. The influence of climatic conditions on the variation of in-situ matric suctions could be found to decrease rapidly with depth. It could be found that decrement of matric suction induced by precipitation is affected not only by the amount and duration of rainfalls but also by the initial matric suction just prior to rainstorms. The soil-water characteristic from the field monitoring tends toward the wetting path of SWCC obtained from the laboratory test.

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3변수 확률분포형에 의한 극치강우의 빈도분석 (Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Using 3 Parameter Probability Distributions)

  • 김병준;맹승진;류경식;이순혁
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제46권3호
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2004
  • This research seeks to derive the design rainfalls through the L-moment with the test of homogeneity, independence and outlier of data on annual maximum daily rainfall at 38 rainfall stations in Korea. To select the appropriate distribution of annual maximum daily rainfall data by the rainfall stations, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO), Generalized Pareto (GPA), Generalized Normal (GNO) and Pearson Type 3 (PT3) probability distributions were applied and their aptness were judged using an L-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. Parameters of appropriate distributions were estimated from the observed and simulated annual maximum daily rainfall using Monte Carlo techniques. Design rainfalls were finally derived by GEV distribution, which was proved to be more appropriate than the other distributions.

확률 강우에 따른 홍수 전후의 소유역 오염부하량 배출특성 연구 (A Study on the Discharge Characteristics of Pollutant Loads in Small Watershed According to the Probability Rainfall)

  • 김필식;김선주;심재훈
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제52권6호
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this paper is to study the discharge characteristics of pollutant loads in small watershed according to probability rainfall using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (WinHSPF). The subwatershed of Gosam reservoir watershed in Gyeonggido province was simulated and the probability rainfall of study area was estimated by recurrence interval and duration. The probability rainfalls are 156.5, 205.9 and 277.4 mm for 6 hrs, 12 hrs and 24 hrs in 10 year frequency, and each probability rainfalls is distributed by Huff's 4th quantiles method and applied to HSPF. The pollutant loads were high for initial rainfall. The concentrations of TN, TP and BOD were high as rainfall duration is shorter and rainfall intensity is higher.

GMS 영상자료와 관측강수량 자료의 비교 (An intercomparison of GMS image data and observed rainfall data)

  • 서애숙;이미선;김금란;이희훈
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this study is to find the relationship between GMS image data and hourly observed rainfalls data. Heavy rainfall cases over South Korea on 10th September 1990 and on 29th July 1993 were selected for studying of the relationship between the image data and reinfalls. First, image data were converted to TBB(Temperature of Black Body) and albedo and then these values were extracted for the pixels closest to the surface observation station to correlate with the rainfall data. Horizontal distribution of TBB and albedo tells roughly rainfall regions. The correlation between rainfall and TBB is found to be very low in quantitative analysis. The weak relationship between the brighter albedo and the higher rainfall probability is observed. This study suggests that the TBB values are useful in classifying rain areas and for heavy rainfalls the albedo values are more useful than the TBB. Low linear correlation between the fields may be attributed to the neglect of cloud types in this study.

연최대치계열과 비연초과치계열으로부터 산정한 확률강우량의 비교·분석 (Comparison of Design Rainfalls From the Annual Maximum and the Non-annual Exceedance Series)

  • 박예준;권현한;정은성;김태웅
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.469-478
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    • 2014
  • 확률수문량을 산정하기 위해서 실무에서 많이 사용하는 연최대치 계열은 자료의 구축이 간편한 장점이 있지만, 우리나라에서 연최대치 계열을 이용하기에는 자료의 수가 매우 제한적이다. 특히, 적은 관측자료를 바탕으로 확률강우량 또는 설계홍수량을 추정할 경우 과다산정을 할 가능성이 매우 높다. 본 연구에서는 기상청에서 제공하는 1973년부터 2012년까지 총 40년간의 관측자료를 대상으로 독립호우사상을 구분하고, 연최대치 계열과 비연초과치 계열을 구성한 후, 연최대치 계열과 비연초과치 계열로부터 산정된 확률강우량의 상관성을 분석하고, 적은 관측자료를 가지고 지점빈도해석을 수행하여 확률강우량을 추정할 수 있는 방법을 제안하였다.

기후변화와 이상기상 발생의 현황과 미래 (Overview of Climate Change and Unusual Regional Climate and the Future)

  • 문승의
    • 한국작물학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국작물학회 2000년도 추계 학술대회지
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2000
  • The Asian summer monsoon has a profound social and economic impact in East Asia and its surrounding countries. The monsoon is basically a response of the atmosphere to the differential heating between the land mass of the Asian continent and the adjacent oceans. The atmospheric response, however, is quite complicated due to the interactions between the atmospheric heat sources, land-sea contrast, and topography, The occurrence of extreme summertime floods in Korea, Japan, and China in 1998 and 1999 has highlighted the range of variability of the East Asian summertime monsoon circulation and spurred interest in investigating the cause of such extreme variability. While ENSO is often considered a prime mechanism responsible for the unusual hydrological disasters in East Asia, understanding of the connection between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon is hampered by their dynamic complexities. Along with a recent phenomenon of weather abnormalities observed in many parts of the globe, Korea has seen its share of increased weather abnormalities such as the record-breaking heavy rainfalls due to a series of flash floods in the summers of 1998 and 1999, following devastating Yangtze river floods in China. A clear regime shift is found in the tropospheric mean temperature in the northern hemisphere middle latitudes and the surface temperature over the Asian continent during the summer with a sudden warming since 1977. Either decadal climate variation or climate regime shift in the Asian continent is evident and may have altered the characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon. Considering the summertime rainfall amount in Korea is overall increased lately, the 1998/99 heavy rainfalls may not be isolated episodes related only to ENSO, but could be a part of long-term climate variation. The record-breaking heavy summer rainfalls in Korea may not be direct impact of ENSO. Instead, the effects of decadal climate variation and ENSO may be coupled to each other and also to the East Asian summer monsoon system, while their individual impacts are difficult to separate.

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확률강우량 산정방법의 신뢰도 분석 (Reliability Analysis for the Estimation of Frequency-Based Rainfall)

  • 홍창선;원석연;안재현;안원식
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제1권3호
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구에서는 확률강우량 산정과정에서 발생할 수 있는 불확실성을 파악하기 위하여 신뢰도 분석을 실시하였으며, 이를 위해 서울관측소의 39개년(1961년${\sim}$199년)간의 연최대 강우량자료 계열을 이용하였다. 강우량 빈도해석을 위해 국내에서 일반적으로 적용되어온 9개의 확률분포형 및 3가지의 매개변수 추정법을 적용하여 각 방법별로 강우 지속기간별, 재현기간별로 확률강우량을 산정하였으며, 계획강우량의 결정방법을 3가지(최대치, 중앙치, 선정치)로 구분하여 각 방법에 대한 신뢰도 분석을 실시하였다. 확률강우량의 분포형을 파악하기 위하여 확률강우량 산정치를 표준화하였으며, 표준화된 확률강우량은 정규분포를 따르는 것을 볼 수 있었다. 또한 이 값들로부터 강우 지속기간별 빈도별로 변동계수를 산정할 결과 0.0456의 값을 가지는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 이 값은 신뢰도 개념을 도입한 확률강우량의 산정을 위해서 유용하게 사용될 수 있을 것이다.

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