• Title/Summary/Keyword: rainfall trend

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Economic Growth and Animal Traction Development in Africa : An Empirical Analysis

  • Panin, A.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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    • 1996.06c
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    • pp.219-227
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    • 1996
  • Since the introduction of animal traction technologies(ATT) in many Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, attempts to propagate its widespread use in the continent have suffered several setbacks. Many factors are responsible of this. However, developments in the African economies are believed to be a prominent factor. This study provides empirical evidence of the impact of economic growth on the performance of ATT-in Sub-Saharan Africa(SSa). The analysis uses 1971-1990 time-series data on ATT from botswana. The performance of ATT is measured on the basis of changes year covered under this study. The models used, are a regression model and a trend projection model. Although the regression model is representing a simplified view of the relationship between ATT and economic growth , it takes account of the influence of annual amounts of rainfall. It is concluded that economic growth has had a negative impact on the performance of ATT in Botwana. As the country's Gross Domestic Pro uct (GDP) steadily increased over the period of the analysis, the number of households using ATT declined at a rate of 2.5% per year. The impact of the GDP on ATT was directly associated with increases in the use of tractor, food imports and beef exports. The results have serious policy implications for agricultural development in many African countries that are not capable of sustaining their economic growth.

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A Statistical Approach to Examine the Impact of Various Meteorological Parameters on Pan Evaporation

  • Pandey, Swati;Kumar, Manoj;Chakraborty, Soubhik;Mahanti, N.C.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.515-530
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    • 2009
  • Evaporation from surface water bodies is influenced by a number of meteorological parameters. The rate of evaporation is primarily controlled by incoming solar radiation, air and water temperature and wind speed and relative humidity. In the present study, influence of weekly meteorological variables such as air temperature, relative humidity, bright sunshine hours, wind speed, wind velocity, rainfall on rate of evaporation has been examined using 35 years(1971-2005) of meteorological data. Statistical analysis was carried out employing linear regression models. The developed regression models were tested for goodness of fit, multicollinearity along with normality test and constant variance test. These regression models were subsequently validated using the observed and predicted parameter estimates with the meteorological data of the year 2005. Further these models were checked with time order sequence of residual plots to identify the trend of the scatter plot and then new standardized regression models were developed using standardized equations. The highest significant positive correlation was observed between pan evaporation and maximum air temperature. Mean air temperature and wind velocity have highly significant influence on pan evaporation whereas minimum air temperature, relative humidity and wind direction have no such significant influence.

A basic study for stabilization of heavy metal contaminated tailings by inorganic binders (무기고화제를 이용한 중금속 오염 광미의 안정화 처리를 위한 기초연구)

  • Min, Kyoung-Won;Kim, Tae-Poong;Lee, Hyun-Cheol;Seo, Eui-Young
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.29 no.A
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    • pp.55-60
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    • 2009
  • Stabilization treatment is one of processes for wastes and their components to reduce their toxicity and migration rates to surroundings. Inorganic binders such as calcium hydroxide, blast furnace slag and red mud were tested for their potential applicability to in-situ stabilization of heavy metal contaminated tailings in the abandoned metal mines. Columns(150mm dia. ${\times}$ 450mm length) filled with mixtures of inorganic binders and tailing from the Geumjang mine with various mixing ratios of binders to tailings, 5%, 7% and 9% were applied artificial rainfall tests for 28 days. Effluents from columns filled with calcium hydroxide and tailing showed high pH's of ~12.5 and a increasing trend of concentration in Pb and Zn with a significant decrease in permeability in terms of elapsed days. Those with burning slag and tailing showed pH's of ~8.5 and significantly low concentrations in heavy metals with a stable permeability. In case of red mud, effluents showed significantly low concentrations in heavy metals but a decreased permeability with pH's of ~10.5. Conclusively, this basic study suggests burning furnace slag be a potential stabilizer for effective treatment of heavy metal contaminated mine tailings.

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Assessment of Hydrological Impact by Long-Term Land Cover Changes due to Urbanization of Rural Area (농촌유역의 도시화 진전에 따른 수문환경 변화)

  • Lee, Mi-Seon;Park, Geun-Ae;Kwon, Hyung-Joong;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.11 no.1 s.26
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impact due to temporal land cover change by gradual urbanization of Anseong-cheon Gongdo watershed ($371.8km^2$). Land covers of 1981, 1990, 2000 Landsat TM images were classified by maximum likelihood method. The watershed showed a trend that forest & paddy areas decreased about $33km^2$ and $27km^2$, respectively and urban area increased about $11km^2$ during the periods. To identify the impact of streamflow due to urbanization, WMS HEC-1 was used. According to apply Huffs quartile storm events by changing land cover data, peak runoff discharge of each frequency rainfall (50, 100, 500 years) increased about 56, 36, $192m^3/sec$, respectively.

Comparative a Study on Trend Analysis using Extreme Rainfall Data and Scaling Exponent (강우자료와 스케일 지수에 대한 경향성 비교)

  • Jung, Younghun;Kim, Taereem;Joo, Kyungwon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.339-339
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    • 2019
  • 지구 온난화와 기후변화의 영향으로 태풍의 발생과 집중호우로 인한 홍수피해는 꾸준히 증가하고 있는 실정이다. 이와 같이 홍수와 관련된 강수량은 기상인자 중에서 유역의 유출과 관계가 있고, 유역의 내수침수 등의 도시홍수를 일으키는 원인이 되고 있다. 그러나 본 연구에서는 자료의 경향성을 판단하기 위해 국내 연최대강우자료의 경향성을 분석하였으며, 또한 연최대강우자료의 시간적 특성을 나타내는 지표로써 스케일 지수에 대하여 경향성과 변동성을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 the block bootstrap-based MK (BBS-MK) 분석을 실시하였고, 연최대강우자료로부터 BBS-MK분석에 대한 경향성 분석 결과, 다수 지점의 연최대강우자료에서 경향성이 나타나지 않았으나, 큰 변동성을 확인하였고, 연별 스케일 지수의 변동성 보다 월별 스케일 지수의 변동성 중 우기에 해당하는 월 (6-10월)에 대한 변동성은 크게 나타났다. 스케일 지수의 경향성은 연최대강우자료의 경향성 분석 결과와는 반대로 많은 강우지점에서 경향성이 존재함을 알 수 있었다. 스케일 지수의 경향성 분석 결과, 해안 지역의 강우 관측소에서 감소 경향이 확인되었지만, 내륙 지역에서는 스케일 지수가 증가하는 경향을 확인할 수 있었다.

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Correlation Analysis Between Climate Indices and Long-Term Trend of Extreme Rainfall using EEMD (앙상블 경험적 모드분해법을 이용한 기상인자와 우리나라 극치강우의 장기경향성간의 상관성 분석)

  • Kim, Hanbeen;Joo, Kyungwon;Kim, Taereem;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.230-230
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    • 2019
  • 대규모순환패턴과 같은 기후시스템에서의 상태와 변화를 정량화하여 나타낸 기상인자는 수문기상학적 변수와 밀접한 연관이 있는 것으로 알려져 있으며, 이에 따라 비정상성 빈도해석의 수행에 있어서 확률분포모형의 매개변수에 대한 공변량으로 널리 활용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 비정상성 강우빈도해석 시 매개변수의 공변량으로 우리나라의 극치강우의 장기경향성을 잘 반영할 수 있는 기상인자를 선정하고자 한다. 먼저, 시계열자료를 주기성을 가지는 내재모드함수와 장기경향성을 나타내는 잔여값으로 분해할 수 있는 앙상블 경험적 모드분해법을 이용하여 우리나라 전역에 분포된 61개 지점에서 관측된 연 최대치 강우자료의 평균 및 분산에 대한 잔여값을 추출하였다. 다음으로 11개의 월 단위 기상인자에 대한 계절별 연 평균 시계열과 추출된 평균 및 분산의 잔여값과의 상관계수를 산정하였다. 그 결과, 11개의 기상인자 중 Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)가 우리나라 연 최대치 강우자료의 평균 및 분산에 대한 장기경향성과 높은 상관성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 계절적으로는 AMM과 AMO의 경우 이전 년도 가을철 평균이 전 지점 평균 약 0.6, NAO는 이전 년도 여름철 평균이 전 지점 평균 0.3 이상의 유의한 상관계수를 가지는 것으로 나타났다.

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A Model to Identify Expeditiously During Storm to Enable Effective Responses to Flood Threat

  • Husain, Mohammad;Ali, Arshad
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2021
  • In recent years, hazardous flash flooding has caused deaths and damage to infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. In this paper, our aim is to assess patterns and trends in climate means and extremes affecting flash flood hazards and water resources in Saudi Arabia for the purpose to improve risk assessment for forecast capacity. We would like to examine temperature, precipitation climatology and trend magnitudes at surface stations in Saudi Arabia. Based on the assessment climate patterns maps and trends are accurately used to identify synoptic situations and tele-connections associated with flash flood risk. We also study local and regional changes in hydro-meteorological extremes over recent decades through new applications of statistical methods to weather station data and remote sensing based precipitation products; and develop remote sensing based high-resolution precipitation products that can aid to develop flash flood guidance system for the flood-prone areas. A dataset of extreme events has been developed using the multi-decadal station data, the statistical analysis has been performed to identify tele-connection indices, pressure and sea surface temperature patterns most predictive to heavy rainfall. It has been combined with time trends in extreme value occurrence to improve the potential for predicting and rapidly detecting storms. A methodology and algorithms has been developed for providing a well-calibrated precipitation product that can be used in the early warning systems for elevated risk of floods.

A study on a tendency of parameters for nonstationary distribution using ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (앙상블 경험적 모드분해법을 활용한 비정상성 확률분포형의 매개변수 추세 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Taereem;Shin, Hongjoon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.253-261
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    • 2017
  • A lot of nonstationary frequency analyses have been studied in recent years as the nonstationarity occurs in hydrologic time series data. In nonstationary frequency analysis, various forms of probability distributions have been proposed to consider the time-dependent statistical characteristics of nonstationary data, and various methods for parameter estimation also have been studied. In this study, we aim to introduce a parameter estimation method for nonstationary Gumbel distribution using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD); and to compare the results with the method of maximum likelihood. Annual maximum rainfall data with a trend observed by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was applied. As a result, both EEMD and the method of maximum likelihood selected an appropriate nonstationary Gumbel distribution for linear trend data, while the EEMD selected more appropriate nonstationary Gumbel distribution than the method of maximum likelihood for quadratic trend data.

Characteristics and long term variation trend of water mass in the coastal part of East Sea, Korea (동해연안 수괴의 특성과 장기변동 추이)

  • Yoon, Yi-Yong;Jung, So-Jung;Yoon, Sang-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2007
  • Rapid variation of coastal ecosystem in the East Sea of Korea, such as fishery resource variation and subtropical chang of bentic flora, accordong to the global warming are actually noticed. In this study we try to identify the characterics of water mass existing in this coastal area and to consider the variation of their physical and chemical properties using data of temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen obtained by National Fisheries Research & Development Institute from 1960 to 2005. The temperature of all water mass rise during last 45 years; the rise of North Korea Cold Water temperature (about $2.33^{\circ}C$) is 1.5 times higher than that of Tsushima warm water (about $1.6^{\circ}C$), and the temperature rise of Tsushima Surface Water, directly affected by climate chang is $2.57^{\circ}C$, higher than the atmospheric temperature rise during same period, indicating that subtropical change makes progress more rapidly in the coastal marine ecosystem than in the land ecosystem. Otherwise, the salinity in the surface water decrease $0.29\%_{\circ}$ during last 45 years due to the rising trend of rainfall with atmospheric temperature. The dissolved oxygen concentration in the all water mass make a decreasing trend. Specially for the North Korea Cold Water, the dissolved oxygen concentration diminish 0.021 mg/l per year and the decrease in the East Sea Proper Water indicate a change of inner water circulation system.

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Lost measurement sensor data estimation technology based on trend analysis of adjacent sensors using Boussinesq equation (부시네스크 식을 이용한 인접 센서 데이터 추세 분석 기반 손망실 계측 센서 데이터 추정 기법)

  • Choi, Sang-Il;Shim, Seungbo;Kong, Suk-Min;Lee, Seong-Won
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2021
  • Most of measurement sensors used for maintenance are continuously exposed to various environmental factors such as transportation and rainfall, so the possibility of breakage increases gradually. The maintenance measurement sensor of domestic subway tunnel shows an average of 14.2% to 14.8% of loss rate after about 5 to 6 years from installation, and it shows a sensor loss rate of about 13.9% in case of foreign countries. As a result, it can be seen that an average of 15% of maintenance measurement sensors at home and abroad cannot send measuring values after 5~6 years. In order to continuously collect accurate data, measurement data must be recovered by performing repair or replacement of the sensor, but some lost measurement sensors are buried after installation. So, there are many difficulties in repairing sensors, including cost and time. Therefore, in this paper, we propose lost measurement sensor data estimation technology based on data trend analysis using adjacent sensors.