• Title/Summary/Keyword: rainfall modeling

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Modeling of shallow landslides in an unsaturated soil slope using a coupled model

  • Kim, Yongmin;Jeong, Sangseom
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.353-370
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a case study and numerical investigation to study the hydro-mechanical response of a shallow landslide in unsaturated slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration using a coupled model. The coupled model was interpreted in details by expressing the balance equations for soil mixture and the coupled constitutive equations. The coupled model was verified against experimental data from the shearing-infiltration triaxial tests. A real case of shallow landslide occurred on Mt. Umyeonsan, Seoul, Korea was employed to explore the influence of rainfall infiltration on the slope stability during heavy rainfall. Numerical results showed that the coupled model accurately predicted the poromechanical behavior of a rainfall-induced landslide by simultaneously linking seepage and stress-strain problems. It was also found that the coupled model properly described progress failure of a slope in a highly transient condition. Through the comparisons between the coupled and uncoupled models, the coupled model provided more realistic analysis results under rainfall. Consequently, the coupled model was found to be feasible for the stability and seepage analysis of practical engineering problems.

A Real-time Monitoring and Modeling of Turbidity Flow into a Reservoir (실시간 저수지 탁수 감시 및 예측 모의)

  • Chung, Se-Woong;Ko, Ick-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.1184-1188
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    • 2005
  • The impacts of turbidity flow induced by summer rainfall events on water supply, aquatic ecosystems, and socioeconomics are significant and major concerns in most of reservoirs operations. As a decision support tool, the real-time turbidity flow monitoring and modeling system RTMMS is under development using a laterally integrated two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic and water quality model. The objectives of this paper is to present the preliminary field observation results on the characteristics of rainfall-induced turbidity flows and their density flow regimes, and the model performance in replicating the fate and transport of turbidity plume in a reservoir. The rainfall-induced turbidity flows caused significant drop of river water temperature by 5 to $10^{\circ}C$ and resulted in density differences of 1.2 to $2.6kg/m^3$ between inflow water and ambient reservoir water, which consequently led development of density flows such as plunge flow and interflow in the reservoir. The 2D model was set up for the reservoir. and applied to simulate the temperature stratification, density flow regimes, and temporal and spatial turbidity distributions during flood season of 2004 After intensive refinements on grid resolutions , the model showed efficient and satisfactory performance in simulating the observed reservoir thermal stratification and turbidity profiles that all are essentially required to enhance the performance of RTMMS.

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Analysis of a Change in the Water-Balance after Application of Decentralized Rainwater Management Facilities - Based on the Results of the Hydrologic Modeling using the CAT - (분산식 빗물관리시설 적용에 따른 물수지 변화 분석 연구 - CAT을 이용한 수문모델링 결과를 토대로 -)

  • Lee, Tae-Goo;Han, Young-Hae
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2011
  • To analyze changes in the water-balance before and after using decentralized rainwater management facilities, this study carried out hydrologic modeling based on data including roof planting, rainwater use, infiltration and detention facilities applied to the sites. The results of the analysis are as follows: First, the total runoff quantity after facility installation was about 24% less than before. In particular, it showed that the surface runoff declined significantly. Second, the analysis of the effects of different decentralized rainwater management facilities revealed that the rooftop planting contributed to about a 3.5 times increase in actual evaporation than before. Third, the analysis of the effect of decentralized management facilities by different rainfall events showed that it turned to have about a 30% decreasing effect after facility installation for a monthly rainfall over 500mm or so and about 50% declining effect for a monthly rainfall about 200mm. As discussed above, the study confirmed that it is important to implement decentralized rainwater management facilities to improve inevitable changes in water-balance arising from development as it would be a significant alternative for sustainable urban development.

Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida (하천 유량 예측 시스템 개선을 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Martinez, Chris;Asefa, Tirusew
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2012
  • This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.

GIS Based Realistic Weather Radar Data Visualization Technique

  • Jang, Bong-Joo;Lim, Sanghun
    • Journal of Multimedia Information System
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, the quixotic nature and concentration of rainfall due to global climate change has intensified. To monitor localized heavy rainfalls, a reliable disaster monitoring and warning system with advanced remote observation technology and high-precision display is important. In this paper, we propose a GIS-based intuitive and realistic 3D radar data display technique for accurate and detailed weather analysis. The proposed technique performs 3D object modeling of various radar variables along with ray profiles and then displays stereoscopic radar data on detailed geographical locations. Simulation outcomes show that 3D object modeling of weather radar data can be processed in real time and that changes at each moment of rainfall events can be observed three-dimensionally on GIS.

Realistic Rainfall Effect Algorithm Comparison and Analysis (사실적인 비 내리는 효과 알고리즘 비교 및 분석)

  • Seo, Taeuk;Sung, Mankyu
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2019
  • Realistic rendering of natural phenomena is a difficult problem. Many environmental factors must be considered to simulate this phenomenon. At the same time, we need to think about their computational complexity to be simulated with computer algorithm One of the most difficult problems in creating weather conditions is the rain. To simulate realistic rainy scene, you have to consider the physical properties of rain and the environmental where the rain is falling down as well. In this paper, we survey the modeling and rendering techniques for realistic rainfall scenes from three different aspects. First, we list up techniques for modeling raindrop dynamics. Second, we survey the rendering techniques that render the raindrop in the environment. Third, we take a look at the hybrid methods that combines the rendering the modeling at the same time. For each aspect, we compare the algorithms in terms of implementation and their speciality.

Runoff Analysis of Urban Watershed using MIKE SWMM Model (MIKE SWMM 모형을 이용한 도시유역 유출분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Suk;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.11
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    • pp.907-916
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    • 2005
  • For an urban watershed modeling, the ILLVDAS and SWMM model were the popular rainfall-runoff models using in Korea. However, combined sewerage systems in urban area produce some problems when a flood event happens because of the surcharged precipitation amounts which drain to streams directly. Also, rack of pipe line data and difficulties of modeling yield inappropriate modeling results in urban runoff analysis. In addition, rainfall-runoff models in an urban which using channel routing could be inaccurate and complicated processes. In this paper, the MIKE SWMM model has been applied for a stable urban area runoff analysis. Watershed and pipe line data were established by using past inundated records, DEM data and numerical pipe line data. For a runoff modeling, the Runoff block was adapted to a basin and the Extran block using dynamic equation was applied for sewerage system. After a comparisons against existing models yield that the MIKE SWMM model produce reliable and consistence results without distorting parameter of the model.

A Study on the Effectiveness of Radar Rainfall by Comparing with Flood Inundation Record Map Using KIMSTORM (Grid-based KIneMatic Wave STOrm Runoff Model) (분포형 강우유출모형 KIMSTORM을 이용한 침수실적자료와의 비교를 통한 레이더강우의 효용성 연구)

  • Ahn, So Ra;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.11
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    • pp.925-936
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of dual-polarization radar rainfall by comapring with the flood inundation record map through KIMSTORM(Grid-based KIneMatic wave STOrm Runoff Model). For Namgang dam ($2,293km^2$) watershed, the Bisl dual-polarization radar data for 3 typhoons (Khanun, Bolaven, Sanba) and 1 heavy rain event in 2012 were prepared. For both 28 ground rainfall data and radar rainfall data, the model was calibrated using observed discharge data at 5 stations with $R^2$, Nash and Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (ME) and Volume Conservation Index (VCI). The calibration results of $R^2$, ME and VCI were 0.85, 0.78 and 1.09 for ground rainfall and 0.85, 0.79, and 1.04 for radar rainfall respectively. The flood inundation record areas (SY and MD/SG district) by typhoon Sanba were compared with the distributed modeling results. The spatial distribution by radar rainfall produced more surface runoff from the watershed and simulated higher stream discharge than the ground rainfall condition in both SY and MD/SG district. In case of MD/SG district, the stream water level by radar rainfall near the flood inundation area showed 0.72 m higher than the water level by ground rainfall.

Analysis of Uncertainty of Rainfall Frequency Analysis Including Extreme Rainfall Events (극치강우사상을 포함한 강우빈도분석의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong;Park, Young-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.337-351
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    • 2010
  • There is a growing dissatisfaction with use of conventional statistical methods for the prediction of extreme events. Conventional methodology for modeling extreme event consists of adopting an asymptotic model to describe stochastic variation. However asymptotically motivated models remain the centerpiece of our modeling strategy, since without such an asymptotic basis, models have no rational for extrapolation beyond the level of observed data. Also, this asymptotic models ignored or overestimate the uncertainty and finally decrease the reliability of uncertainty. Therefore this article provide the research example of the extreme rainfall event and the methodology to reduce the uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian MCMC (Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) and the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) methods using a quadratic approximation are applied to perform the at-site rainfall frequency analysis. Especially, the GEV distribution and Gumbel distribution which frequently used distribution in the fields of rainfall frequency distribution are used and compared. Also, the results of two distribution are analyzed and compared in the aspect of uncertainty.

Numerical modeling on the stability of slope with foundation during rainfall

  • Tran, An T.P.;Kim, Ah-Ram;Cho, Gye-Chun
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2019
  • The movement of soil along a slope during rainfall can cause serious economic damage and can jeopardize human life. Accordingly, predicting slope stability during rainfall is a major issue in geotechnical engineering. Due to rainwater penetrating the soil, the negative pore water pressure will decrease, in turn causing a loss of shear strength in the soil and ultimately slope failure. More seriously, many constructions such as houses and transmission towers built in/on slopes are at risk when the slopes fail. In this study, the numerical simulation using 2D finite difference program, which can solve a fully coupled hydromechanical problems, was used to evaluate the effects of soil properties, rainfall conditions, and the location of a foundation on the slope instability and slope failure mechanisms during rainfall. A slope with a transmission tower located in Namyangju, South Korea was analyzed in this study. The results showed that the correlation between permeability and rainfall intensity had an important role in changing the pore water pressure via controlling the infiltrated rainwater. The foundation of the transmission tower was stable during rainfall because the slope failure was estimated to occur at the toe of the slope, and did not go through the foundation.