• Title/Summary/Keyword: quantitative risk assessment

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A Study on the Risk Assessment System for Human Factors (휴먼에러를 중심으로 한 위험요인 도출 방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Sang Kyo;Chang, Seong Rok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.79-84
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    • 2014
  • Human error is one of the major contributors to the accidents. A lot of risk assessment techniques have been developed for prevention of accidents. Nevertheless, most of them were interested in physical factors, because quantitative evaluation of human errors was difficult quantitatively. According to lack of risk assessment techniques about human errors, most of industrial risk assessment for human errors were based on data of accident analysis. In order to develop an effective countermeasure to reduce the risk caused by human errors, a systematic analysis is needed. Generally, risk assessment system is composed of 5 step(classification of work activity, identification of hazards, risk estimation, evaluation and improvement). This study aimed to develop a risk identification technique for human errors that could mainly be applied to industrial fields. In this study, Ergo-HAZOP and Comprehensive Human Error Analysis Technique were used for developing the risk identification technique. In the proposed risk identification technique, Ergo-HAZOP was used for broad-brush risk identification. More critical risks were analysed by Comprehensive Human Error Analysis Technique. In order to verify applicability, the proposed risk identification technique was applied to the work of pile head cutting. As a consequence, extensive hazards were identified and fundamental countermeasures were established. It is expected that much attention would be paid to prevent accidents by human error in industrial fields since safety personnel can easily fint out hazards of human factors if utilizing the proposed risk identification technique.

The Safety Design of Corrosive Chemical Handling Process based on Reliability Database (신뢰도 데이터베이스 기반 부식성 화학물질 취급공정의 안전설계)

  • Chu, Chang Yeop;Baek, Jong Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2018
  • In a PCB factory, there is a corrosive chemical substance supply system that can causes major leakage accidents. These accidents can give rise to shut down the factory and do residents damage that cause enormous loss of properties. To mitigate these risks, it is necessary to provide a chemical disaster prevention system. Moreover, after considering the situation and environment of the production site, it is of great importance to build an optimal chemical accident prevention system by reflecting risk reduction measures from the point of process design and by assessing quantitative risk based on reliability data. However, because there was no established database of the reliability about facilities and equipment that can be used in the domestic, the business site and consulting organization had being used the reliability data such as USA CCPS(Center for Chemical Process Safety). In these days, Korean institutes are studying on reliability data utilization method of quantitative risk assessment for preventing chemical accidents and domestic utilization algorithms and storage bed of reliability data. This study presents samples of reliability database about the chemical substance supply system that constructed from the history data such as failure, maintenance for 10 years at a PCB factory. Also, this work proposes the safety design criteria for supply facilities of corrosive chemical substance by assessing quantitative risk on the basis of the reliability data.

A Study on a Risk Assessment Method and Building Simulation for the Development of a Korean Integrated Disaster Evaluation Simulator (K-IDES) for High-rise Buildings

  • Kim, Tae-Young;Han, Gi-Sung;Kang, Boo-Seong;Lee, Kyung-Hoon
    • Architectural research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to establish a method for assessing a building's risk against disaster, tentatively named the Korean integrated disaster evaluation simulator (K-IDES). Based on previous studies, FEMA's risk management series and FEMA IRVS are selected as case studies for developing a frame work of K-IDES, through the comparative analysis of domestic building design guides, codes, and special acts related to disasters, in order to develop a risk assessment methodology for quantitative results. The assessment method consists of a classification system and calculating risk, and a simulation applying the developed checklist in K-IDES to similar types of high-rise buildings will be conducted to validate its accuracy. The final goal is to systemize an integrated risk management in a high-rise building against disasters for the purpose of recognizing vulnerable areas from the beginning of the design process and reinforcing it from potential threats after construction.

Quantitative Fire Risk Assessment and Counter Plans Based on FDS and GIS for National Road Bridges (FDS와 GIS를 이용한 교량 화재 위험도의 정량적 평가 및 적용방안)

  • Ann, Ho June;Park, Cheol Woo;Kim, Yong Jae;Jang, Young Ik;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.185-195
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, unexpected bridge fire accidents have increased because of augmenting the number of traffic volumes and hazardous materials by the increment in traffics and distribution business. Furthermore, in accordance with the effort of using the under space of bridges, the ratio of occupied by combustible materials like oil tanker or lorry has been increased. As a result, the occurrence of bridge fire has been growing drastically. In order to mitigate the accident of bridge fire, risk assessment of bridge fire has been studied, however, practical risk models considering safety from users' viewpoints were scarce. This study represented quantitative risk assessment model applicable to national road bridges in Korea. The primary factors with significant impacts on bridge fire accidents was chosen such as clearance height, materials of bridges, arrival time of fire truck and fire intensity. The selected factors were used for Fire Dynamics Simulation (FDS) and the peak temperature calculated by FDS in accordance with the fire duration and fire intensity. The risk assessment model in bridge fire reflected the FDS analysis results, the fire damage criteria, and the grade of fire truck arrival time was established. Response plans for bridge fire accidents according to the risk assessment output has been discussed. Lastly, distances between bridges and fire stations were calculated by GIS network analysis. Based on the suggested assessment model and methodology, sample bridges were selected and graded for the risk assessment.

Risk Assessment Improvement Method of Small Stream When Small Sized Hazard Infrastructures Survey (소규모 공공시설 조사시 세천의 위험도 평가 방안)

  • Jungsoo Rho;Kyewon Jun;Jaesung Shin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the damage caused by natural disasters such as typhoons and localized torrential rains has been increasing rapidly. The Ministry of the Interior and Safety enacted a 「law on safety management of small sized infrastructures」 and local governments have to register small sized infrastructures with the National Disaster and Safety Management System (NDMS) until March 31st every year. Recently, each local government has ordered Safety inspections of small sized infrastructures and maintenance plans and six types of facilities, including small streams, small bridges, farm roads, access roads to village, inlet weirs, and drop structures are being surveyed and digitized into a database. Each facility is being evaluated for risk, and for those deemed hazardous, maintenance plans are being developed. However, since the risk assessment method of small sized infrastructures is not clear so that is conducted through visual investigation by field investigators, risk assessment is conducted in a subjective and ambiguous form. Therefore, this study presented a reasonable and quantitative risk assessment method by providing a quantitative evaluation indicator for small stream, which has the highest disaster risk among other small sized infrastructures, so that small sized hazard infrastructures can be selected to secure transparent evidence for improvement plans and action plans.

The Development of a Scale Assessing the Risk of Discontinuation of Tuberculosis Treatment (결핵 환자의 초치료 중단위험 사정도구 개발)

  • Choi, Jin Ok;Sung, Kyung Mi
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.156-169
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: This study identified the reasons why tuberculosis (TB) patients withhold treatment in a bid to develop a assessment scale to select patients who needs nursing intervention in the early stage and decrease the risk of discontinuation of treatment. Sample: There were two samples. A sample of 191 patients with TB and having primary treatment and a second sample of N who were under re-treatment Methods: The study design included qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative data were collected from in-depth interviews of TB patients under re-treatment. The quantitative data were collected from 191 patients with TB under primary treatment. Results: Exploratory factor analysis revealed 11 factors explaining 69.6% of total variance. These factors were categorized into four subgroups. A depression scale was used to establish concurrent validity. The depression scale had a positive relationship (r=54) with the discontinuing of primary treatment. The internal consistency reliability for the four subgroups was over .84. The confidence coefficient was Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ .95. The final scale was a self-reported four Likert scale including 50 items. Conclusion: Reliability and validity was established for the scale and the scale can be used to examine the risk of treatment discontinuation for TB. The scale is an important resource for nursing interventions in identifying and treating high risk clients.

A Study on the Methodologies to Assess Network Vulnerability (네트워크 위험 분석 및 취약점 점검 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Seo Dong-Il;Park Won-Joo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2005
  • This paper proposes to analyze a security level about information property systems. This method uses objective and quantitative risk level assessment. The method analyzes administrative, physical and technical aspects of information property system commonly. This method also uses administrative, physical and technical weights. Individually according to requirements security assessment purpose. And it shows risks weighting mean and importance of information property by graph. The most right and up systems in maps is prior to other systems. Also, Quantitative analysis presents more objective and efficient results for security level assessment of information system.

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Decision Making of Seismic Performance Management Using Seismic Risk Assessment (지진위험도평가 방법을 이용한 내진성능관리 의사결정)

  • Kim, Dong Joo;Choi, Ji Hye;Kim, Byeong Hwa
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.329-339
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    • 2019
  • The strategy for the management of earthquakes is shifting from post recovery to prevention; therefore, seismic performance management requires quantitative predictions of damage and the establishment of strategies for initial responses to earthquakes. Currently, seismic performance evaluation for seismic management in Korea consists of two stages: preliminary evaluation and detailed evaluation. Also, the priority of seismic performance management is determined in accordance with the preliminary evaluation. As a deterministic method, preliminary evaluation quantifies the physical condition and socio-economic importance of a facility by various predetermined indices, and the priority is decided by the relative value of the indices; however, with the deterministic method it is difficult to consider any uncertainty related to the return-year, epicenter, and propagation of seismic energy. Also this method cannot support tasks such as quantitative socio-economic damage and the provision of data for initial responses to earthquakes. Moreover, indirect damage is often greater than direct damage; therefore, a method to quantify damage is needed to enhance accuracy. In this paper, a Seismic Risk Assessment is used to quantify the cost of damage of road facilities in Pohang city and to support decision making.

A Study on the EPS Process of Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Safety Decision Making (EPS 공정의 정량적 위험성 평가를 통한 안전의사결정에 관한 연구)

  • 정재희;김형석;최광석;이영순
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 1999
  • The quantitative risk assessment and consequence analysis by accident scenario in the process of EPS(Expendable Poly Stylene) reaction process are conducted. And the decision making process is studied followed by selecting various alternatives to safety management and facility improvement. The result are as follows; 1) The object of decision making through comprehensive risk assessment are the scenario which can cause four major accident, which are made by process analysis, work analysis and hazard identification. 2) Frequency analysis of ETA, FTA, HRA and consequence analysis of accident to each have been conducted. The each frequency values are yielded $9.2{\times}10_{-5}/yr$ to scenarios $1, 8.2{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ to scenario 2, $4.5{\times}10^{-6}/yr$ scenario 3 and $1.8{\times}10^{-7}/yr$ to scenario 4. The each scenarios have been conducted consequence analysis. 3) The calculated values have been obtained 4.00 to scenario 1, 3.25 to scenario 2, 2.43 to scenario 3 and 1.34 to scenario 4, as the weight value had been applied to the quantitative and normalized criteria of all components. As a risk criteria, scenario 1 have been selected, which is the most dangerous scenario as a result of ranking the scenario. 4) According to the importance of FTA and contribute to scenario 1, the cost-benefit values are yielded $8.05\times10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(Al), $1.55{\times}10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(A2) and $2.32{\times}10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(A3). As a result of final alternative(Al) has been selected, which is the most optimized alternative.

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