• Title/Summary/Keyword: probable rainfall

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Investigating the scaling effect of the nonlinear response to precipitation forcing in a physically based hydrologic model (강우자료의 스케일 효과가 비선형수문반응에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Nam-Sun;Lee, K.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.149-153
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    • 2006
  • Precipitation is the most important component and critical to the study of water and energy cycle. This study investigates the propagation of precipitation retrieval uncertainty in the simulation of hydrologic variables for varying spatial resolution on two different vegetation cover. We explore two remotely sensed rain retrievals (space-borne IR-only and radar rainfall) and three spatial grid resolutions. An offline Community Land Model (CLM) was forced with in situ meteorological data In turn, radar rainfall is replaced by the satellite rain estimates at coarser resolution $(0.25^{\circ},\;0.5^{\circ}\;and\;1^{\circ})$ to determine their probable impact on model predictions. Results show how uncertainty of precipitation measurement affects the spatial variability of model output in various modelling scales. The study provides some intuition on the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction via interaction between the land surface and near atmosphere fluxes in the modelling approach.

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A study on the Evaluation for the Design Flood of Ungauged Small River Basins (미계측 중소하천의 계획홍수량산정에 관한 연구)

  • 침순보;안보훈
    • Water for future
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 1976
  • This paper presents a hydrologic method of probabilistic design flood calculation for ungauged small river basins. It is based on the study and analysis of the physiographic characteristics of the river basin for which stream flow records may not be available. Rainfall data is used at nearby station which has the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relations. Musim cheon, second tributary of the Guem river, is selected for the sample study. Design floods for the stream reaches are computed by the Rational formula, the runoff coefficients being determined with the physiographic data such as soil type, land use and vepetal covers. Derived unit hydrograph at conneted main river basin is used to compute the peak flood discharge. Kajiyama formula and modified Kajiyama formula are used to calculated the most probable maximum flood discharge. The result of this study shows that synthesized unit hydrograph method is more accurate and applicable way to com pute design flood for ungauged small river basins.

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Evaluation of Bacteriological Safety for the Shellfish growing Sea waters in Seocheon Area, Korea (충남 서천 패류생산해역에서의 세균학적 위생안전성 평가)

  • Byun, Han-Seok;Song, Ki-Cheol;Lee, Doo-Seog;Shim, Kil-Bo;Lim, Chi-Won
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2010
  • A Sanitary survey in an Important shellfish-growing area of Biin Bay in Seocheon-gun Korea, was conducted to evaluate bay conditions and compliance with the bacteriological criteria for areas designated for the production of shellfish for export. Seawater samples were collected monthly at 55 sampling stations established in the survey area from January 2006 to December 2008. Bacteriological water quality did not change in response to a small rainfall (10.0 mm), but it increased abruptly in response to rainfall to 62.5 mm The most probable number (MPN) value for total coliforms and fecal coliforms in 1, 980 seawater samples ranged from <1.8 to >1, 600 MPN/100mL and from <1.8 to 330 MPN/100mL, respectively. The geometric mean and estimated $90^{th}$ percentile value for total coliforms ranged from 2.0 to 10.3 MPN/100mL and from 7.0 to 42.6 MPN/100mL respectively. The geometric mean and estimated percentile value for fecal coliforms ranged from 1.8 to 4.0 MPN/100mL and from 1.9 to 18.3 MPN/100mL, respectively. Accordingly, the bacteriological water quality of Biin Bay met the National Shellfish Sanitation Program (NSSP) and Korea Shel1fish Sanitation Program(KSSP) criteria for areas designated for shellfish production for export in Korea.

Evaluation of Bacteriological Safety for the Shellfish Growing Waters in Taean Area, Korea (충남 태안 패류생산해역에서의 세균학적 위생안정성 평가)

  • Song, Ki-Cheol;Lee, Doo-Seog;Shim, Kil-Bo;Lim, Chi-Won;Mog, Jong-Su;Byun, Han-Seok;Park, Young-Je;Cho, Ki-Chae
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2008
  • The seawater in the Taean area was surveyed to evaluate the conditions of the bay and compliance with the bacteriological criteria for a designated area for shellfish production for export. Samples of seawater were collected monthly at 34 sampling stations established in the survey area from January 2002 to December 2004. The bacterial density in the coastal area close to a pollution source located to the northeast of the survey area was higher than in the open sea to the west. The bacteriological counts in the water did not change with 16.5mm of rainfall, but increased abruptly after 65.4mm of rainfall. The total coliform and fecal coliform most probable numbers (MPNs) of 1,224 seawater samples in the survey area were <1.8-2,400 and <1.8-790 MPN/100 mL, respectively. The geometric mean and estimated 90th percentile of total coliforms were 1.9-3.4 and 2.7-26.3 MPN/100mL, respectively, and for fecal coliforms were <1.8-2.6 and 1.8-12.0 MPN/100mL, respectively. The bacteriological water quality in the Taean seawater area met the National Shellfish Sanitation Program criteria for an approved area and the Korea Shellfish Sanitation Program criteria for a designated area for shellfish production for export.

Study on Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Summertime Precipitation over Korean Peninsula (여름철 한반도 강수의 시·공간적 특성 연구)

  • In, So-Ra;Han, Sang-Ok;Im, Eun-Soon;Kim, Ki-Hoon;Shim, JaeKwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.159-171
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    • 2014
  • This study investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of summertime (June-August) precipitation over Korean peninsula, using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)is Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data for the period of 1973-2010 and Automatic Weather System (AWS) data for the period of 1998-2010.The authors looked through climatological features of the summertime precipitation, then examined the degree of locality of the precipitation, and probable precipitation amount and its return period of 100 years (i.e., an extreme precipitation event). The amount of monthly total precipitation showed increasing trends for all the summer months during the investigated 38-year period. In particular, the increasing trends were more significant for the months of July and August. The increasing trend of July was seen to be more attributable to the increase of precipitation intensity than that of frequency, while the increasing trend of August was seen to be played more importantly by the increase of the precipitation frequency. The e-folding distance, which is calculated using the correlation of the precipitation at the reference station with those at all other stations, revealed that it is August that has the highest locality of hourly precipitation, indicating higher potential of localized heavy rainfall in August compared to other summer months. More localized precipitation was observed over the western parts of the Korean peninsula where terrain is relatively smooth. Using the 38-years long series of maximum daily and hourly precipitation as input for FARD2006 (Frequency Analysis of Rainfall Data Program 2006), it was revealed that precipitation events with either 360 mm $day^{-1}$ or 80 mm $h^{-1}$ can occur with the return period of 100 years over the Korean Peninsula.

Real-Time Flash Flood Evaluation by GIS Module at Mountainous Area (산악에서 돌발홍수예측을 위한 지리정보시스템의 적용)

  • Nam, Kwang-Woo;Choi, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.317-327
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    • 2005
  • The flood is the most general and frequently occurs among natural disasters. Generally flood by the rainfall which extends superexcellently for the occurrence but flash flood from severe rain storm gets up an absurd drowsiness at grade hour. This paper aims to 1 hour real-time flash flood and predict possibility at the area where is the possible flood will occur from the rainfall hour mountain after acquiring data in GIS(Geographic Information System) base by GcIUH(Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph). The flash flood occurrence is set up at 0.5m, 0.7m and 1.0m in standard depth. And this study suggests standard flood alarm which designed by probable flood according to duration time. The research result shows real-time flash flood evaluation has the suitable standard in the basin when comparing with the existing official warning announcement system considering topographical information.

Spatio-temporal potential future drought prediction using machine learning for time series data forecast in Abomey-calavi (South of Benin)

  • Agossou, Amos;Kim, Do Yeon;Yang, Jeong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.268-268
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    • 2021
  • Groundwater resource is mostly used in Abomey-calavi (southern region of Benin) as main source of water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural activities. Groundwater intake across the region is not perfectly controlled by a network due to the presence of many private boreholes and traditional wells used by the population. After some decades, this important resource is becoming more and more vulnerable and needs more attention. For a better groundwater management in the region of Abomey-calavi, the present study attempts to predict a future probable groundwater drought using Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for future groundwater level prediction. The RNN model was created in python using jupyter library. Six years monthly groundwater level data was used for the model calibration, two years data for the model test and the model was finaly used to predict two years future groundwater level (years 2020 and 2021). GRI was calculated for 9 wells across the area from 2012 to 2021. The GRI value in dry season (by the end of March) showed groundwater drought for the first time during the study period in 2014 as severe and moderate; from 2015 to 2021 it shows only moderate drought. The rainy season in years 2020 and 2021 is relatively wet and near normal. GRI showed no drought in rainy season during the study period but an important diminution of groundwater level between 2012 and 2021. The Pearson's correlation coefficient calculated between GRI and rainfall from 2005 to 2020 (using only three wells with times series long period data) proved that the groundwater drought mostly observed in dry season is not mainly caused by rainfall scarcity (correlation values between -0.113 and -0.083), but this could be the consequence of an overexploitation of the resource which caused the important spatial and temporal diminution observed from 2012 to 2021.

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Probable rainfall variability using the Annals of Chosun Dynasty (조선왕조실록의 호우기록을 이용한 확률강우량의 변동성)

  • Park, Min-Kyu;Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Hyun-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1131-1135
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 조선왕조실록의 호우기록을 이용하여 강우량 기록기간을 확장하는 효과를 얻어 이를 반영했을 때의 확률강우량의 변화를 검토하였다. 우리나라의 조선왕조실록은 약 500여년에 걸친 조선왕조의 주요한 사건들을 다루고 있으며 큰 피해를 입힌 홍수나 가뭄피해 및 현상을 잘 기록하고 있다. 특히 조선시대의 경우 조선초기부터 강우량의 과학적 측정에 대한 관심으로 측우기를 개발하여 전국적인 우량 관측망을 갖춘 바 있으며 현재는 영조 말년에 해당하는 1777년 이후의 측우기 기록이 남아있다. 따라서 조선왕조실록의 큰 호우사상이 발생하였을 때의 기록을 당시의 대처, 기록방법 등의 검토와 함께 측우기 기록과 비교하여 조선왕조 전체에 걸친 주요호우사상을 판별할 수 있었다. 이때, Stedinger가 제시한 censored data를 이용한 빈도해석 방법을 적용할 경우 조선왕조실록을 검토하여 얻은 주요 호우사상의 개략적인 규모 및 회수를 이용하여 확률 강우량을 산정할 수 있었다. 이 방법은 일정기간동안 특정 크기 이상의 호우사상의 크기를 안다면 연속적인 연최대강우량계열이 있는 것과 거의 동일한 수준으로 확률강우량을 산정하는 방법이다. 현대 강우빈도해석의 가장 큰 문제는 자료의 관측기간의 부족으로 인해 고빈도에 대한 신뢰도가 떨어지는 문제이다. 이에 대한 대안으로 조선왕조실록과 측우기 자료를 이용하여 장기간의 강우자료를 확보한 효과를 반영할 때 확률강우량은 현재보다 상당히 증가할 수 있는 것으로 검토되었다.

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Evaluation of Flood Control Capacity for Seongju Dam against Extreme Floods (이상강우에 대비한 성주댐의 홍수조절 능력 분석)

  • 권순국;한건연;서승덕;최혁준
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2003
  • As a fundamental research to establish a safety operation plan for irrigation dams, this study presents hydrologic analysis conducted in Sungju Dam watershed based on various rainfall data. Especially those reservoirs without flood control feature are widely exposed to the risk of flooding, a safe and optimized operation program need to be improved against arbitrary flooding. In this study, reservoir routing program was developed and simulated for reservoir runoff estimation using WMS hydrology model. The model simulated the variations of reservoir elevation under the condition of open or closed emergency gate. In case of closed emergency gate, water surface elevation was given as 193.15 m, and this value exceeds the dam crest height by 1.65 m. When the emergency gate is open, the increment of water surface elevation is given as 192.01 m, and this value exceeds dam crest height by 0.57 m. As an alternative plan, dam height increase can be considered for flood control under the PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation) condition. Since the dam size is relatively small compare to the watershed area, sound protection can be expected from the latter option rather than emergency gate installation.

Analysis on Probable Rainfall Intensity in Kyungpook Province (경북지방(慶北地方)의 확률(確率) 강우강도(降雨强度)에 대(對)한 분석(分析))

  • Suh, Seung Duk;Park, Seung Young
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.4
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate an optimum formula of rainfall intensity on basis of the characteristics for short period of rainfall duration in Kyungpook province for the design of urban sewerage and small basin drain system. Results studied are as follows; 1. The optimum method for Taegu and Pohang, Iwai's and Gumbel-Chow's method are recommended respectively. 2. The opotimum type of rainfall intensity for these area, $I=\frac{a}{\sqrt{t}+b}$ (Japanese type), is confirmed with 2.52~4.17 and 1.86~4.54 as a standard deviation for Taegu and Pohang respectively. The optimum formula of rainfall intensity are as follows. Taegu : T : 200 year - $I=\frac{824}{\sqrt{t}+1.5414}$ T : 100 year - $I=\frac{751}{\sqrt{t}+1.4902}$ T : 50 year - $I=\frac{678}{\sqrt{t}+1.4437}$ T : 30 year - $I=\frac{623}{\sqrt{t}+1.4017}$ T : 20 year - $I=\frac{580}{\sqrt{t}+1.3721}$ T : 10 year - $I=\frac{502}{\sqrt{t}+1.3145}$ T : 5 year - $I=\frac{418}{\sqrt{t}+1.2515}$ Pohang : T : 200 year - $I=\frac{468}{\sqrt{t}+1.1468}$ T : 100 year - $I=\frac{429}{\sqrt{t}+1.1605}$ T : 50 year - $I=\frac{391}{\sqrt{t}+1.1852}$ T : 30 year - $I=\frac{362}{\sqrt{t}+1.2033}$ T : 20 year - $I=\frac{339}{\sqrt{t}+1.2229}$ T : 10 year - $I=\frac{299}{\sqrt{t}+1.2578}$ T : 5 year - $I=\frac{257}{\sqrt{t}+1.3026}$ 3. Significant I.D.F. curves derived should be applied to estimate a suitable rainfall intensity and rainfall duration.

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