• 제목/요약/키워드: probable error

검색결과 62건 처리시간 0.016초

대기오염에 의한 폐암 및 만성폐색성호흡기질환 -개인 흡연력을 보정한 만성건강영향평가- (Lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and air pollution)

  • 성주헌;조수헌;강대희;유근영
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.585-598
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    • 1997
  • Background : Although there are growing concerns about the adverse health effect of air pollution, not much evidence on health effect of current air pollution level had been accumulated yet in Korea. This study was designed to evaluate the chronic health effect of ai. pollution using Korean Medical Insurance Corporation (KMIC) data and air quality data. Medical insurance data in Korea have some drawback in accuracy, but they do have some strength especially in their national coverage, in having unified ID system and individual information which enables various data linkage and chronic health effect study. Method : This study utilized the data of Korean Environmental Surveillance System Study (Surveillance Study), which consist of asthma, acute bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), cardiovascular diseases (congestive heart failure and ischemic heart disease), all cancers, accidents and congenital anomaly, i. e., mainly potential environmental diseases. We reconstructed a nested case-control study wit5h Surveillance Study data and air pollution data in Korea. Among 1,037,210 insured who completed? questionnaire and physical examination in 1992, disease free (for chronic respiratory disease and cancer) persons, between the age of 35-64 with smoking status information were selected to reconstruct cohort of 564,991 persons. The cohort was followed-up to 1995 (1992-5) and the subjects who had the diseases in Surveillance Study were selected. Finally, the patients, with address information and available air pollution data, left to be 'final subjects' Cases were defined to all lung cancer cases (424) and COPD admission cases (89), while control groups are determined to all other patients than two case groups among 'final subjects'. That is, cases are putative chronic environmental diseases, while controls are mainly acute environmental diseases. for exposure, Air quality data in 73 monitoring sites between 1991 - 1993 were analyzed to surrogate air pollution exposure level of located areas (58 areas). Five major air pollutants data, TSP, $O_3,\;SO_2$, CO, NOx was available and the area means were applied to the residents of the local area. 3-year arithmetic mean value, the counts of days violating both long-term and shot-term standards during the period were used as indices of exposure. Multiple logistic regression model was applied. All analyses were performed adjusting for current and past smoking history, age, gender. Results : Plain arithmetic means of pollutants level did not succeed in revealing any relation to the risk of lung cancer or COPD, while the cumulative counts of non-at-tainment days did. All pollutants indices failed to show significant positive findings with COPD excess. Lung cancer risks were significantly and consistently associated with the increase of $O_3$ and CO exceedance counts (to corrected error level -0.017) and less strongly and consistently with $SO_2$ and TSP. $SO_2$ and TSP showed weaker and less consistent relationship. $O_3$ and CO were estimated to increase the risks of lung cancer by 2.04 and 1.46 respectively, the maximal probable risks, derived from comparing more polluted area (95%) with cleaner area (5%). Conclusions : Although not decisive due to potential misclassication of exposure, these results wert drawn by relatively conservative interpretation, and could be used as an evidence of chronic health effect especially for lung cancer. $O_3$ might be a candidate for promoter of lung cancer, while CO should be considered as surrogated measure of motor vehicle emissions. The control selection in this study could have been less appropriate for COPD, and further evaluation with another setting might be necessary.

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서북한 지역 전축분(塼築墳) 연대의 하한 재검토 -기년명전(紀年銘塼)을 중심으로 (Re-examination of the Latest Dates of the Brick Chamber Tombs in the Western Region of North Korea: A Focus on Dated Inscribed Bricks)

  • 장병진
    • 박물관과 연구
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    • 제1권
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    • pp.96-119
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    • 2024
  • 서북한에서 출토된 명문전에서 낙랑·대방군이 완전히 축출된 314년 이후의 연호, 심지어는 5세기 초의 연호가 확인되었다. 2군 소멸 이후에 전축분 조영의 전통이 1세기 동안 이어진 셈인데, 전축분은 고구려 지배층의 묘제로 채택된 바가 없다. 348년 조영된 장무이묘나 353년에 제작된 동리묘는 전형적인 전축분 양식에서 벗어나 석실분의 요소가 가미된 사실이 지적되었고, 장무이나 동리와 비슷한 성격의 존재인 동수의 무덤(안악 3호분)은 357년 석실봉토분으로 조영되었다. 그럼에도 반세기 동안 전축분 조영이 계속되었다는 것은 다소 의문이었다. 기년명전이 중요한 근거가 되었지만, 선행 연구를 반복적으로 재생산했던 문제가 있었다. 357년 이후로 파악했던 일부 기년명전의 경우에는 연호 해석에 오류가 있었음이 지적되기도 했다. 전진 시기인 386년으로 파악했던 '대안(태안) 2년' 명문전은 서진 혜제 시기인 303년으로, 후연 시기인 407년으로 파악한 '건시 원년' 명문전도 301년 서진 혜제를 몰아내고 사마윤이 잠시 제위를 차지했던 시기에 사용한 연호라는 견해였다. 이들 사례를 제외하면 357년 이후에 제작되었다고 알려진 기년명전은 '원흥 3년' 명문전만 남는다. 그런데 명문전을 재검토한 결과 '원흥'은 '영흥'의 오독임을 확인했다. 영흥 3년은 서진대인 306년이나 후조대인 352년에 해당하는데, 306년의 가능성이 크다. 4세기 말, 5세기 초까지 전축분이 조영된 사실을 뒷받침하는 결정적인 근거가 사라진 셈이다. 결국 장무이나 동리의 무덤은 서북한 지역에서 조영된 가장 늦은 시기의 전축분으로 볼 수 있으며, 안악 3호분이 조영될 무렵을 기점으로 서북한 지역에서는 더 이상 전축분의 조영이 이루어지지 않았던 것으로 볼 수 있다. 이러한 양상은 당대의 역사적 상황에도 부합한다.