• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability theory

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A Statistical Study Evaporation tn DAEGU Area (대구지방의 증발량에 대한 통계학적 연구)

  • 김영기
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.3160-3169
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    • 1973
  • Rainfall, evaporation, and permeability of water are the most important factors in determining the demand of water. The Daegu area has only a meteorologi observatory and there is not sufficient data for adapting the advanced method for derivation of the estimated of evaporation in the Daegu area. However, by using available data, the writer devoted his great effort in deriving the most reasonable formula applicable to the Daegu area and it is adaptable for various purposes such as industry and estimation of groundwater etc. The data used in this study was the monthly amount of evaporation of the Daegu area for the past 13 years(1960 to 1970). A year can be divided into two groups by relative degrees of evaporation in this area: the first group (less evaporation) is January, February, March, October, November, and December, and the second (more evaporation) is April, May, June, July, August, and September. The amount of evaporation of the two groups were statistically treated by the theory of probability for derivation of estimated formula of evaporation. The formula derved is believed to fully consider. The characteristic hydrological environment of this area as the following shows: log(x+3)=0.8963+0.1125$\xi$..........(4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 month) log(x-0.7)=0.2051+0.3023$\xi$..........(1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 month) This study obtained the above formula of probability of the monthly evaporation of this area by using the relation: $F_(x)=\frac{1}{{\surd}{\pi}}\int\limits_{-\infty}^{\xi}e^{-\xi2}d{\xi}\;{\xi}=alog_{\alpha}({\frac{x_0+b'}{x_0+b})\;(-b<x<{\infty})$ $$log(x_0+b)=0.80961$ $$\frac{1}{a}=\sqrt{\frac{2N}{N-1}}\;Sx=0.1125$$ $$b=\frac{1}{m}\sum\limits_{i-I}^{m}b_s=3.14$$ $$S_x=\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits_{i-I}^{N}\{log(x_i+b)\}^2-\{log(x_i+b)\}^2}=0.0791$$ (4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 month) This formula may be advantageously applied to estimation of evaporation in the Daegu area. Notation for general terms has been denoted by following: $W_(x)$: probability of occurance. $$W_(x)=\int_x^{\infty}f(x)dx$$ P : probability $$P=\frac{N!}{t!(N-t)}{F_i^{N-{\pi}}(1-F_i)^l$$ $$F_{\eta}:\; Thomas\;plot\;F_{\eta}=(1-\frac{n}{N+1})$$ $X_l\;X_i$: maximun, minimum value of total number of sample size(other notation for general terms was used as needed)

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Statistical Characteristics of Polarization - Sensitive Optical Coherence Tomography for Tissue Imaging

  • Oh, Jung-Taek;Kim, Beop-Min;Kim, Seung-Woo
    • Journal of the Optical Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.211-215
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    • 2003
  • Statistical characteristics of the backscattered light from turbid tissues obtained by polarizationsensitive optical coherence tomography are investigated. The amplitude of the backscattered light is found to faithfully follow the Rayleigh distribution predicted by the scattering theory of electromagnetic waves in random media. The probability density function of the phase difference between the two orthogonal polarization components of the backscattered light is explicitly derived and then verified in comparison with the experimental data measured from in-vitro tissues of porcine ligament.

How to Improve Expert Witness in Medical Malpractice Litigation (의료과오소송에서의 감정상 제문제)

  • Yang, Hui-Jin
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.311-338
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    • 2008
  • This paper aims to introduce an overview of the regime of expert witness in the medical malpractice litigation, and to provide a plan of how to make it improved. In regard with medical expert witness, several problems, such as time-consuming procedure, non-neural and unclear opinion without reasons provided, have been pointed out for several years. Lack of skill of the court and plaintiff/defender to question the expert is one of many cause to lead to the above problems. What is questioned to the expert? Because expert witness is used in determining probability of negligence, questions to the expert should be selected on the grounds of whether or not to obtain opinions or facts sufficient to let the judge infer negligence in view of the theory of proof burden established by the Supreme Court. In addition, to avoid non-neutral and unclear opinion, it is necessary to question the expert clearly, specifically and scientifically.

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Monte Carlo Simulation of Phonon Transport in One-Dimensional Transient Conduction and ESD Event (1 차원 과도 전도와 정전기 방전 현상에 관한 포논 전달의 몬테 카를로 모사)

  • Oh, Jang-Hyun;Lee, Joon-Sik
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05b
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    • pp.2165-2170
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    • 2007
  • At nanoscales, the Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) can best describe the behavior of phonons which are energy carriers in crystalline materials. Through this study, the phonon transport in some micro/nanoscale problems was simulated with the Monte Carlo method which is a kind of the stochastic approach to the BTE. In the Monte Carlo method, the superparticles of which the number is the weighted value to the actual number of phonons are allowed to drift and be scattered by other ones based on the scattering probability. Accounting for the phonon dispersion relation and polarizations, we have confirmed the one-dimensional transient phonon transport in ballistic and diffusion limits, respectively. The thermal conductivity for GaAs was also calculated from the kinetic theory by using the proposed model. Besides, we simulated the electrostatic discharge event in the NMOS transistor as a two-dimensional problem by applying the Monte Carlo method.

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Real-time Pulse Radar Signal Processing Algorithm for Vehicle Detection (실시간 차량 검지를 위한 펄스 레이더 신호처리 알고리즘)

  • Ryu Suk-Kyung;Woo Kwang-Joon
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.353-357
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    • 2006
  • The vehicle detection method using pulse radar has the advantage of maintenance in comparison with loop detection method. We propose the pulse radar signal processing algorithm in which we devide the trace. data from pulse radar into segments by using SSC concept, and then construct the sectors in accordance with period and amplitude of segments, and finally decide the vehicle detection probability by applying the SSC parameters of each sectors into the discriminant function. We also improve the signal processing time by reducing the quantities of processing data and processing routines.

Dynamics of Resonant Energy Transfer in OH Vibrations of Liquid Water

  • Yang, Mi-No
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.885-892
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    • 2012
  • Energy transfer dynamics of excited vibrational energy of OH stretching bonds in liquid water is theoretically studied. With time-dependent vibrational Hamiltonian obtained from a mixed quantum/classical calculation, we construct a master equation describing the energy transfer dynamics. Survival probability predicted by the master equation is compared with numerically exact one and we found that incoherent picture of energy transfer is reasonably valid for long-time population dynamics. Within the incoherent picture, we assess the validity of independent pair approximation (IPA) often introduced in the theoretical models utilized in the analysis of experimental data. Our results support that the IPA is almost perfectly valid as applied for the vibrational energy transfer in liquid water. However, proper incorporation of radial and orientational correlations between two OH bonds is found to be critical for a theory to be quantitatively valid. Consequently, it is suggested that the Forster model should be generalized by including the effects of the pair correlations in order to be applied for vibrational energy transfer in liquid water.

Optimization of Maintenance and Retrofit Planning for Reliable Seismic Performance of the Bridges (교량의 내진성능확보를 위한 유지보수계획의 최적화)

  • 고현무;박관순;김동석;이선영
    • Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2002.03a
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    • pp.284-293
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    • 2002
  • Using the life cycle cost concept, optimum maintenance and retrofit planning for reliable seismic performance is suggested the overall life cycle cost to be minimized including the initial cost, the costs of inspection, repair, and failure. Limit states of the bridges are defined. And failure probabilities are computed through crossing theory. The effect of maintenance and retrofit is represented using the probability of damage detection and event tree analysis. Optimization of maintenance and retrofit planning method proposed from this research was applied to numerical examples. The analysis incorporates the acceleration and site conditions prescribed in the code, and the quality of inspection methods.

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Optimization of Truss Structure by Genetic Algorithms (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 트러스 구조물의 최적설계)

  • 백운태;조백희;성활경
    • Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.234-241
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    • 1996
  • Recently, Genetic Algorithms(GAs), which consist of genetic operators named selection crossover and mutation, are widely adapted into a search procedure for structural optimization. Contrast to traditional optimal design techniques which use design sensitivity analysis results, GAs are very simple in their algorithms and there is no need of continuity of functions(or functionals) any more in GAs. So, they can be easily applicable to wide territory of design optimization problems. Also, virtue to multi-point search procedure, they have higher probability of convergence to global optimum compared with traditional techniques which take one-point search method. The introduction of basic theory on GAs, and the application examples in combination optimization of ten-member truss structure are presented in this paper.

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Optimization of a SMES Magnet in the Presence of Uncertainty Utilizing Sampling-based Reliability Analysis

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Choi, Nak-Sun;Choi, K.K.;Kim, Heung-Geun;Kim, Dong-Hun
    • Journal of Magnetics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.78-83
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    • 2014
  • This paper proposes an efficient reliability-based optimization method for designing a superconducting magnetic energy system in presence of uncertainty. To evaluate the probability of failure of constraints, samplingbased reliability analysis method is employed, where Monte Carlo simulation is incorporated into dynamic Kriging models. Its main feature is to drastically reduce the numbers of iterative designs and computer simulations during the optimization process without sacrificing the accuracy of reliability analysis. Through comparison with existing methods, the validity of the proposed method is examined with the TEAM Workshop Problem 22.

Time-variant structural fuzzy reliability analysis under stochastic loads applied several times

  • Fang, Yongfeng;Xiong, Jianbin;Tee, Kong Fah
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.525-534
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    • 2015
  • A new structural dynamic fuzzy reliability analysis under stochastic loads which are applied several times is proposed in this paper. The fuzzy reliability prediction models based on time responses with and without strength degeneration are established using the stress-strength interference theory. The random loads are applied several times and fuzzy structural strength is analyzed. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated numerically through an example. The results have shown that the proposed method is practicable, feasible and gives a reasonably accurate prediction. The analysis shows that the probabilistic reliability is a special case of fuzzy reliability and fuzzy reliability of structural strength without degeneration is also a special case of fuzzy reliability with structural strength degeneration.