• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.39-49
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• 2018

An SLBM (submarine-launched ballistic missile) seriously threatens the national security due to its stealthiness that makes it difficult to detect in advance. We consider a destroyer deployment optimization problem for effectively detecting an SLBM. An optimization model is based on the two-person zero-sum game in which an adversary determines the firing and arriving places with an appropriate trajectory that provides a low detection probability, and we establish a destroyer deployment plan that guarantees the possibly highest detection probability. The proposed two-person zero-sum game model can be solved with the corresponding linear programming model, and we perform computational studies with a randomly generated area and scenario and show the optimal mixed strategies for both the players in the game.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.10
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• pp.3298-3313
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• 2021

The objective of this study is to estimate the occurrence probabilities of severe accident phenomena based on a fuzzy elicitation technique. Normally, it is difficult to determine these probabilities due to the lack of information on severe accident progression and the highly uncertain values currently in use. In this case, fuzzy set theory (FST) can be best exploited. First, questions were devised for expert elicitation on technical issues of severe accident phenomena. To deal with ambiguities and the imprecision of previously developed (reference) probabilities, fuzzy aggregation methods based on FST were employed to derive the occurrence probabilities of severe accidents via four phases: 1) choosing experts, 2) quantifying weighting factors for the experts, 3) aggregating the experts' opinions, and 4) defuzzifying the fuzzy numbers. In this way, this study obtained expert elicitation results in the form of updated occurrence probabilities of severe accident phenomena in the OPR-1000 plant, after which the differences between the reference probabilities and the newly acquired probabilities using fuzzy aggregation were compared, with the advantages of the fuzzy technique over other approaches explained. Lastly, the impact of applying the updated severe accident probabilities on containment integrity was quantitatively investigated in a Level 2 PSA model.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.29-34
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• 2019

This paper presents a new method for construction of a static obstacle map. A static obstacle is important since it is utilized to path planning and decision. Several established approaches generate static obstacle map by grid method and counting algorithm. However, these approaches are occasionally ineffective since the density of LiDAR layer is low. Our approach solved this problem by applying probability theory. First, we converted all LiDAR point to Gaussian distribution to considers an uncertainty of LiDAR point. This Gaussian distribution represents likelihood of obstacle. Second, we modeled dynamic transition of a static obstacle map by adopting the Hidden Markov Model. Due to the dynamic characteristics of the vehicle in relation to the conditions of the next stage only, a more accurate map of the obstacles can be obtained using the Hidden Markov Model. Experimental data obtained from test driving demonstrates that our approach is suitable for mapping static obstacles. In addition, this result shows that our algorithm has an advantage in estimating not only static obstacles but also dynamic characteristics of moving target such as driving vehicles.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.651-676
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• 2022

Most of the experimental, theoretical, and numerical studies on the stability of functionally graded composites are deterministic, while there are full of complex interactions of variables with an inherently probabilistic nature, this paper presents a non-intrusive framework to investigate the stochastic nonlinear buckling behaviors of porous functionally graded cylindrical shells exposed to inevitable source-uncertainties. Euler-Lagrange equations are theoretically derived based on the three variable refined shear deformation theory. Closed-form solutions for the shell buckling loads are achieved by solving the deterministic eigenvalue problems. The analytical results are verified with numerical results obtained from finite element analyses that are conducted in the commercial software ABAQUS. The non-intrusive framework is completed by integrating the Monte Carlo simulation with the verified closed-form solutions. The convergence studies are performed to determine the effective pseudorandom draws of the simulation. The accuracy and efficiency of the framework are verified with statistical results that are obtained from the first and second-order perturbation techniques. Eleven cases of individual and compound uncertainties are investigated. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to figure out the five cases that have profound perturbative effects on the shell buckling loads. Complete probability distributions of the first three critical buckling loads are completely presented for each profound uncertainty case. The effects of the shell thickness, volume fraction index, and stochasticity degree on the shell buckling load under compound uncertainties are studied. There is a high probability that the shell has non-unique buckling modes in stochastic environments, which should be known for reliable analysis and design of engineering structures.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.1-9
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• 2014

PURPOSES: The objective of this study is to evaluate construction issues and design for transverse steel in continuously reinforced concrete pavement(CRCP). METHODS : The first continuously reinforced concrete pavement(CRCP) design procedure appeared in the 1972 edition of the "AASHTO Interim Guide for Design of Pavement Structures", which was published in 1981 with Chapter 3 "Guide for the Design of Rigid Pavement" revised. A theory that was accepted at that time for the analysis of steel stress in concrete pavement, called subgrade drag theory(SGDT), was utilized for the design of reinforcement of CRCP - tie bar design and transverse steel design - in the aforementioned AASHTO Interim Guide. However SGDT has severe limitations due to simple assumptions made in the development of the theory. As a result, any design procedures for reinforcement utilizing SGDT may have intrinsic flaws and limitations. In this paper, CRCP design procedure for transverse steel was introduced and the limitations of assumptions for SGDT were evaluated based on various field testing. RESULTS: Various field tests were conducted to evaluate whether the assumptions of SGDT are reasonable or not. Test results show that 1) temperature variations exist along the concrete slab depth, 2) very little stress in transverse steel, and 3) warping and curling in concrete slab from the field test results. As a result, it is clearly revealed out that the assumptions of SGDT are not valid, and transverse steel and tie bar designs should be based on more reasonable theories. CONCLUSIONS : Since longitudinal joint is provided at 4.1-m spacing in Korea, as long as joint saw-cut is made in accordance with specification requirements, the probability of full-depth longitudinal cracking is extremely small. Hence, for transverse steel, the design should be based on the premise that its function is to keep the longitudinal steel at the correct locations. If longitudinal steel can be placed at the correct locations within tolerance limits, transverse steel is no longer needed.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.7-16
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• 1988

The safety factor has been used widely and uniquely at present to check the safety of the structure . However, probability of failure would be logically attempted to check the reliability of the structure in future Coulomb's theory or Rankine's theory has been applied in practice to retaining earth structure in spite of the fact that the lateral earth pressure, which is the primary factor in the determination of wall structure, depends on the modes of wall movement . This study is concentrated on the two modes of , wall movement (active case rotation about bottom(AB) , active case rotation about top(AT)) of the overturning'failure of vertical wall with horizontal sand backfill . The static active earth pressure is determined by applying each of Coulomb's theory, Dubrova's redistribution theory and Chang's method The earthquake active earth pressure is determined by adding Seed and Whitman's earthquake pressure to the static earth pressure , On the condition that design variables are fixed with each of the above earth pressure, reliability is analyzed using the recently developed method of AFOSM (Advanced First Order Second Moment)

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.3965-3982
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• 2015

Event detection is one of the key issues in many wireless sensor network (WSN) applications. The uncertainties that are derived from the instability of sensor node, measurement noise and incomplete sampling would influence the performance of event detection to a large degree. Many of the present researches described the sensor readings with crisp values, which cannot adequately handle the uncertainties inhered in the imprecise sensor readings. In this paper, a fault-tolerant event detection algorithm is proposed based on Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory (also called evidence theory). Instead of crisp values, all possible states of the event are represented by the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) functions, with which the output of each sensor node are characterized as weighted evidences. The combination rule was subsequently applied on each sensor node to fuse the evidences gathered from the neighboring nodes to make the final decision on whether the event occurs. Simulation results show that even 20% nodes are faulty, the accuracy of the proposed algorithm is around 80% for event region detection. Moreover, 97% of the error readings have been corrected, and an improved detection capability at the boundary of the event region is gained by 75%. The proposed algorithm can enhance the detection accuracy of the event region even in high error-rate environment, which reflects good reliability and robustness. The proposed algorithm is also applicable to boundary detection as it performs well at the boundary of the event.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.365-379
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to investigate what factors affect cyber-delinquency after examining the previous research focusing on the general strain theory and the delinquency opportunity theory in the existing studies. And as adolescents move from middle school to high school, this study is intended to analyze what factors affect cyber-delinquency from a longitudinal perspective using KCYPS(Korea Child and Youth Panel Survey) elementary 4th grade fourth and seventh data. The adolescence cyber-delinquency probability of occurrence were analyzed through the panel logit fixed-effect model using STATA. And then the cyber-delinquency frequency of adolescents were analyzed through the panel tobit random-effect model. As a result of analyzing the factors affecting cyber-delinquency frequency, Adult media commitment, computer use time, and cell phone dependency increased cyber-delinquency frequency. On the other hand, among the parenting attitudes, the attitude of supervising attentively and adolescents' age-increasing decreased cyber-delinquency frequency.

• Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.60-76
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• 2024

Broadband Internet has proven to be vital for economic growth in developed countries. Developing countries have implemented several initiatives to increase their broadband access. However, its full potential can only be realized through adoption and use. With lower-middle-income countries accounting for the majority of the world's unconnected population, this study employs the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to investigate users' intentions to adopt broadband. Rural Tanzania was chosen as a case study. A cross-sectional study was conducted over three weeks, using 155 people from seven villages with the lowest broadband adoption rates. Non-probability voluntary response sampling was used to recruit the participants. Using the TPB constructs: attitude toward behavior (ATB), subjective norms (SN), and perceived behavioral control (PBC), ordinal regression analysis was employed to predict intention. Descriptive statistical analysis yielded mean scores (standard deviation) as 3.59 (0.46) for ATB, 3.34 (0.40) for SN, 3.75 (0.29) for PBC, and 4.12 (0.66) for intention. The model adequately described the data based on a comparison of the model with predictors and the null model, which revealed a substantial improvement in fit (p<0.05). Moreover, the predictors accounted for 50.3% of the variation in the intention to use broadband Internet, demonstrating the predictive power of the TPB constructs. Furthermore, the TPB constructs were all significant positive predictors of intention: ATB (β=1.938, p<0.05), SN (β=2.144, p<0.05), and PBC (β=1.437, p=0.013). The findings of this study provide insight into how behavioral factors influence the likelihood of individuals adopting broadband Internet and could guide interventions through policies meant to promote broadband adoption.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.45-61
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• 2022

Despite of the consensus on the critical role of CEO and slack resources for strategic decision making, how they affect in the selection of strategic alliance type is limited. This study investigated the effect of CEO's experiential attributes and the venture firms' slack resource on the selection of strategic alliance type. To this end, this study used multi-variate logistic regression analysis with 1,813 Korean venture firms. The findings indicated that higher education level and large firm experience of CEO positively contributed to form an explorative alliance. And these two experiential attributes has negative effects on the probability of exploitative alliance formation. On the other hand, the entrepreneurial experience has no effect on the selection of strategic alliance type. This study also investigated the effect of slack resource - available slack, recoverable slack, and potential slack-. The more venture firms have available and potential slack, the higher probability of pursuing an explorative alliance. In addition, recoverable slack of venture firms has negative effect only on the selection of explorative alliance. The results of this study are expected to contribute the literatures of strategic management and venture firms by illustrating which CEO and firm-level factors affect the selection of strategic alliance type. This study also extends recent effort to better understand the selection of strategic alliance type with upper echelons theory and slack resource. And this study suggests implications that can increase the probability of successful decision making by venture firms in selection of strategic alliance type.