• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability theory

Search Result 689, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

An Improvement of the Decision-Making of Categorical Data in Rough Set Analysis (범주형 데이터의 러프집합 분석을 통한 의사결정 향상기법)

  • Park, In-Kyu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.13 no.6
    • /
    • pp.157-164
    • /
    • 2015
  • An efficient retrieval of useful information is a prerequisite of an optimal decision making system. Hence, A research of data mining techniques finding useful patterns from the various forms of data has been progressed with the increase of the application of Big Data for convergence and integration with other industries. Each technique is more likely to have its drawback so that the generalization of retrieving useful information is weak. Another integrated technique is essential for retrieving useful information. In this paper, a uncertainty measure of information is calculated such that algebraic probability is measured by Bayesian theory and then information entropy of the probability is measured. The proposed measure generates the effective reduct set (i.e., reduced set of necessary attributes) and formulating the core of the attribute set. Hence, the optimal decision rules are induced. Through simulation deciding contact lenses, the proposed approach is compared with the equivalence and value-reduct theories. As the result, the proposed is more general than the previous theories in useful decision-making.

An Optimal Scheduling Method Using Probability on the Estimation of Construction Duration (확률적 공기산정에 의한 공정계획 합리화 방안)

  • Kim Sang-Joong;Lee Jae-Soeb
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.5 no.6 s.22
    • /
    • pp.72-79
    • /
    • 2004
  • Critical Path-based project management has been applied to the construction projects with a goal of delivering projects within original costs and time estimates. These current project management methods, rarely make early finishes of construction Projects. In addition, current practices on time management seems not to take advantages of early finishes concepts due to student syndrome and Parkinson's Law, This research study applied the Theory of Constraints(n) in the estimation of construction project duration. While the TOC includes variety of management techniques, in this study, it refers to critical chain that has been used to develop the specific management technique in scheduling. The concept of critical chain is applied to this study to solve the problems associated with the current scheduling method. The efforts focus to solve the p개blems associated with current construction project scheduling methods by adopting both stochastic estimation technique and the concept of schedule buffer,

A Fuzzy-based Risk Assessment using Uncertainty Model (불확실성 모델을 사용한 퍼지 위험도분석)

  • Choi Hyun-Ho;Seo Jong-Won;Jung Pyung-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • autumn
    • /
    • pp.473-476
    • /
    • 2003
  • This paper presents a systematic risk assessment procedure with uncertainty modeling for general construction projects. Since the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the assumed probability with conditional probability concept that systematically incorporate expert's experiences and subjective judgement, the proposed methods with uncertainty modeling is able to apply to all the construction projects inherent in lots of uncertain risk events. The fuzzy set theory is adopted to enhance risk assessment to effectively handle the vague and dynamic phenomenon of an event Therefore, the fuzzy-based risk assessment is very useful, for those countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremely rare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.

  • PDF

Analysis study on tonal structure of ceramic's product -Centering quantitative analysis model- (도자제품의 색체구조의 분석연구 -정량 분석모형을 중심으로-)

  • 손연석
    • Archives of design research
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.45-53
    • /
    • 2000
  • All artists set the arrangement of relative probability subjectively by giving the contrast of color and chroma to give higher probability of some colors in their works and then perform the mechanical assignment. Also the analysis of plastic structure in all areas of design has been made by subjective and qualitative method based on the emotion, intuition and experience of interpreter of design structures and that of color structures was done by the same method. Therefore this study compares and suggests the style characteristics of modern and postmodern design with the object quantitative analysis of color structure by selecting and applying Ilya Chashinik's ceramic dishes as the analysis product of modern design and Jim Melchert's ceramic wall painting as that of postmodern design of 'analysis model of color structure' researched and developed for the quantitative information analysis based on information and communication theory and it is also meaningful in introducing and presenting the analytic procedure and methods centering around quantitative analysis model of color structure analysis.

  • PDF

A Study on Optimal Auditing Under the Living Wage System (생계급여하에서의 최적 소득조사)

  • Yoo, Hanwook
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.31 no.1
    • /
    • pp.207-237
    • /
    • 2009
  • One of the main problems in Korea's public assistance program, the NBLS (National Basic Livelihood Security), is that the loophole of welfare system is continuously growing. Living wage program is the largest sub-program of the NBLS, and the most important determinant of amount of living wage for each beneficiary is the level of reported income. Therefore, accurate and effective income detection is essential in improving policy effects and furthermore reducing the leakage of wage expenditure as beneficiaries always have an incentive to underreport their income. Since most of them do not pay income tax, the welfare authority should exert an independent effort to effectively detect their income. Considering that living wage is a special kind of income tax of which marginal tax rate is -1, one can apply a classical theory of tax evasion to understand illegal or excessive receipt of living wage caused by income underreporting. Utilizing a classical theory given by Alingham and Sandmo (1972), this paper provides a theoretical analysis of the optimal income reporting of the beneficiary. Then an optimization problem is constructed from the government's viewpoint to derive optimal income detecting device (auditing). This paper proves that cut-off discriminated auditing outperforms random auditing and cut-off auditing which implies if the government assigns a positive audit probability to every reported income less than a certain level and the probability is inversely proportional to the level of reported income, it can minimize underreporting and then gradually reduce the leakage of wage expenditure.

  • PDF

A financial feasibility analysis of architectural development projects that use probabilistic simulation analysis method (확률론적 시뮬레이션 분석방법을 적용한 건축개발사업의 재무적 타당성 분석)

  • Lee, Seong-Soo;Choi, Hee-Bok;Kang, Kyung-In
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.76-86
    • /
    • 2007
  • Construction development work invents profit as those finalize object, and a make or break success of project depends on correct analysis and forecast business feasibility at project early. Business feasibility study would be decision-making under precarious situation because is connoting uncertainty that is future. estimate at present visual point essentially. Under uncertainty, a decision-making method is based on probability theory of statistics, but business feasibility study had applied with not feasibility study by probabilistic decision method but it by determinism derision method so far. Therefore in this study doing decision-making by a probability theory method for successful project at early business feasibility study, it present a probabilistic study method that use simulation that can supply a little more correct and reliable data to decision-maker As result, a probabilistic study method is more suitable than deterministic study method as technique for a financial feasibility study of construction development work. Making good use of this probabilistic study method at important business or careful decision-making, because efficient Judgment that is based accuracy and authoritativeness may become available.

Analysis of Drought Characteristics by the Use of Stochastic Method (추계학적 방법에 의한 한발의 특성 분석)

  • Jeong, Sang-Man;Sin, Hyeon-Min
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.32 no.2
    • /
    • pp.197-210
    • /
    • 1999
  • This study examines the duration and severity of droughts by the use of stochastic process considerations. The key annual flow statistics are used to estimate the related statistics of drought probability distributions for various combinations of return period and water demand. This study efforts initially focused on analyzing all the nation streamgage records that were judged to meet certain selection criteria, including those of record length, record quality. These analyses resulted in the determination of those annual flow statistics necessary to define the behavior of drought sequences for the selected streams. Using prior research results, the actual or estimated flow statistics are related to the probability distributions of maximum drought events, through the application of the theory of runs. This has resulted in assigning return periods to drought events at gaged locations, and permits an assessment of the probabilities of observed historical drought within the nation.

  • PDF

Integration of Space Syntax Theory and Logit Model for Walkability Evaluation in Urban Pedestrian Networks (도시 보행네트워크의 보행성 평가를 위한 공간구문론과 Logit 모형의 통합방안)

  • Kim, Jong Hyung;Lee, Mee Young
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.15 no.5
    • /
    • pp.62-70
    • /
    • 2016
  • Ensuring walkability in a city where pedestrians and vehicles coexist is an issue of critical importance. The relative relationship between vehicle transit and walkability improvements complicates the evaluation of walkability, which thus necessitates the formation of a quantitative standard by which a methodological measurement of walkability can be achieved inside the pedestrian network. Therefore, a model is determined whereby quantitative indices such as, but not limited to, experiences of accessibility, mobility, and convenience within the network are estimated. This research proposes the integration of space syntax theory and the logit path choice model in the evaluation of walkability. Space syntax theory assesses adequacy of the constructed pedestrian network through calculation of the link integration value, while the logit model estimates its safety, mobility, and accessibility using probability. The advantage of the integrated model hence lies in its ability to sufficiently reflect such evaluation measures as the integration value, mobility convenience, accessibility potential, and safety experienced by the demand in a quantitative manner through probability computation. In this research, the Dial Algorithm is used to arrive at a solution to the logit model. This process requires that the physical distance of the pedestrian network and the perceptive distance of space syntax theory be made equivalent. In this, the research makes use of network expansion to reflect wait times. The evaluation index calculated through the integrated model is reviewed and using the results of this sample network, the applicability of the model is assessed.

History of the Error and the Normal Distribution in the Mid Nineteenth Century (19세기 중반 오차와 정규분포의 역사)

  • Jo, Jae-Keun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.15 no.5
    • /
    • pp.737-752
    • /
    • 2008
  • About 1800, mathematicians combined analysis of error and probability theory into error theory. After developed by Gauss and Laplace, error theory was widely used in branches of natural science. Motivated by the successful applications of error theory in natural sciences, scientists like Adolph Quetelet tried to incorporate social statistics with error theory. But there were not a few differences between social science and natural science. In this paper we discussed topics raised then. The problems considered are as follows: the interpretation of individual man in society; the arguments against statistical methods; history of the measures for diversity. From the successes and failures of the $19^{th}$ century social statisticians, we can see how statistics became a science that is essential to both natural and social sciences. And we can see that those problems, which were not easy to solve for the $19^{th}$ century social statisticians, matter today too.

The effect of design factors on product design preference in concept testing (컨셉테스팅에서 제품디자인선호에 대한 디자인요소들의 영향)

  • 양종열
    • Archives of design research
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.69-76
    • /
    • 2001
  • In the new product development process, concept testing which screens ideas with the highest probability of market success is very effective in predicting the success of a new product. However, designers do not have accurate guidelines in new product development because the structure of cause and effect of consumers' preference - the most important part of concept testing - has not been provided as quantitative data. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present guidelines for new product concept development through applying means-end chain theory and product form theory which explains what kinds of benefits cause consumers to purchase a product and what kinds of design attributes meet the benefits. In this study, after reviewing means-end chain theory and product form theory, and developing a research model, guidelines for a concept product development (TV are provided through an empirical study.

  • PDF