• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
• /
• 2006.11a
• /
• pp.957-960
• /
• 2006

In order to predict the accumulated damages by cyclic freeze-thaw, a regression analysis by the Response Surface Method (RSM) is used. RSM has merits when the other probabilistic simulation techniques can not guarantee the convergence of probability of occurrence or when the others can not differentiate the derivative terms of limit state functions, which are composed of random design variables in the model of complex system or the system having higher reliability. For composing limit state function, the important parameters for cyclic freeze-thaw-deterioration of concrete structures, such as water to cement ratio, entrained air pores, and the number of cycles of freezing and thawing, are used as input parameters of RSM. The predicted results of relative dynamic modulus and residual strains after 300 cycles of freeze-thaw for specimens show very good agreements with the experimental results. The RSM result can be used to predict the probability of occurrence for designer specified critical values. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate the life cycle management of concrete structures considering the accumulated damages by the cyclic freeze-thaw by the use of proposed prediction method.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.53-61
• /
• 1985

The purpose of the study is to establish models of land use prediction system for development and management of land resources using remotely sensed data as well as ancillary data in the context of multi-disciplinary approach in the application to CheJoo Island. The model adopts multi-date processing techniques and is a spatial/temporal land-use projection strategy emerged as a synthesis of the probability transition model and the discriminant-annlysis model. A discriminant model is applied to all pixels in CheJoo landscape plane to predict the most likely change in land use. The probability transition model provides the number of these pixels that will convert to different land use in a gives future time increment. The synthetic model predicts the future change in land use and its volume of pixels in the landscape plane.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.227-233
• /
• 2004

This paper presents our work on constructing a model that is intended to predict the probability of attrition at specified points in time among customers of an insurance company. There are some difficulties in building a data-based model because a data set may contain possibly censored observations. In an effort to avoid such kind of problem, we performed logistic regression over specified time intervals while using explanatory variables to construct the proposed model. Then, we developed a Cox-type regression model for estimating the probability of attrition over a specified period of time using time-dependent explanatory variables subject to changes in value over the course of the observations.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
• /
• 2003.04a
• /
• pp.201-206
• /
• 2003

This study is test for STS304 specimen using bending and torsion state. Rounded specimen and notched specimen including fracture surface investigation was comparatively experimented, fatigue life according to degree of surface finishing was examined. Fatigue fracture probability of notched canilever specimens were predicted by P-S-N curve, median rank and Weibull distribution. And at the relation with the rotational speed and stress, the fatigue life of the test specimen was higher at high speed than low speed If summarize STS304 torsion result of fatigue test, is as following. Fatigue life prediction was available by Weibull statistics distribution, and 50% breakdown probability correlation equation was appeared as following.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.559-567
• /
• 2014

The model of unit dynamic reliability of repairable k/n (G) system with unit strength degradation under repeated random shocks has been developed according to the stress-strength interference theory. The unit failure number is obtained based on the unit failure probability which can be computed from the unit dynamic reliability. Then, the transfer probability function of the repairable k/n (G) system is given by its Markov property. Once the transfer probability function has been obtained, the probability density matrix and the steady-state probabilities of the system can be retrieved. Finally, the dynamic reliability of the repairable k/n (G) system is obtained by solving the differential equations. It is illustrated that the proposed method is practicable, feasible and gives reasonable prediction which conforms to the engineering practice.

• International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.11-18
• /
• 2011

Carbonation in RC (reinforced concrete) structure is considered as one of the most critical deteriorations in urban cities. Although RC column has one mix condition, carbonation depth is measured spatially differently due to its various environmental and internal conditions such as sound, cracked, and joint concrete. In this paper, field investigation was performed for 27 RC columns subjected to carbonation for eighteen years. Through this investigation, carbonation distribution in sound, cracked, and joint concrete were derived with crack mappings. Considering each related area and calculated PDF (probability of durability failure) of sound, cracked, and joint concrete through Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), repairing timings for RC columns are derived based on several IPDF (intended probability of durability failure) of 1, 3, and 5%. The technique of equivalent probability including carbonation behaviors which are obtained from different conditions can provide the reasonable repairing strategy and the priority order for repairing in a given traffic service area.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.6 no.1 s.23
• /
• pp.73-79
• /
• 2005

This paper, introduces a Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS III) developed by the author to predict a project completion probability in a certain time. The system integrates deterministic CPM, probabilistic PERT, and stochastic Discrete Event Simulation (DES) scheduling methods into one system. It implements automated statistical analysis methods for computing the minimum number of simulation runs, the significance of the difference between independent simulations, and the confidence interval for the mean project duration as well as sensitivity analysis method in What-if analyzer component. The SPSS 111 gives the several benefits to researchers in that it (1) complements PERT and Monte Carlo simulation by using stochastic activity durations via a web based JAVA simulation over the Internet, (2) provides a way to model a project network having different probability distribution functions, (3) implements statistical analyses method which enable to produce a reliable prediction of the probability of completing a project in a specified time, and (4) allows researchers to compare the outcome of CPM, PERT and DES under different variability or skewness in the activity duration data.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
• /
• 2006.11a
• /
• pp.597-600
• /
• 2006

In this study, field survey of carbonation for RC column in city is carried out and carbonation behavior in sound, joint, and cracked concrete is also analyzed. Futhermore, probability of durability failure with time is calculated through considering probability variables such as concrete cover depth and carbonation depth which are obtained from field survey. The probability of durability failure in cracked concrete with considering crack width and time is also calculated and service life is predicted based on intended failure probability in domestic specification. Through this study, it is known that service life in a RC column is evaluated differently for local conditions and each service life is rapidly decreased with decrease in cover depth and increase in crack width.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• v.16 no.4
• /
• pp.29-34
• /
• 1997

The prediction of detection range of a passive sonar system is essential to estimate the performance and to optimize the operation of a developed sonar system. In this paper, a model for the prediction of detection range in a range-dependent ocean environment based on the sonar equation is developed and tested. The prediction model calculates the transmission loss using PE propagation model, signal excess, and the detection probability at each target depth and range. The detection probability is integrated to give the estimated detection range. In order to validate the developed model, two cases are considered. One is the case when target depth is known. The other is the case when the target depth is unknown. The computational results agree well with the previously published results for the range-independent environment. Also,the developed model is applied to the range-dependent ocean environment where the warm eddy exists. The computational results are shown and discussed. The developed model can be used to find the optimal frequency of detection, as well as the optimal search depth for the given range-dependent ocean environment.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.31 no.5
• /
• pp.454-464
• /
• 2010

A probability prediction model for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Northwestern Pacific area was developed using the logistic regression method. Total five predictors were used in this model: the lower-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, upper-level equivalent potential temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST). The values for four predictors except for SST were obtained from difference of spatial-averaged value between May and January, and the time average of Ni$\tilde{n}$o-3.4 index from February to April was used to see the SST effect. As a result of prediction for the TC genesis frequency from June to December during 1951 to 2007, the model was capable of predicting that 21 (22) years had higher (lower) frequency than the normal year. The analysis of real data indicated that the number of year with the higher (lower) frequency of TC genesis was 28 (29). The overall predictability was about 75%, and the model reliability was also verified statistically through the cross validation analysis method.