• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability plot

Search Result 96, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

An Analysis of Storytelling Factors and Mathematics Contents of 'Eddy, the Clever Fox' on TV Animation (TV 애니메이션'똑똑박사 에디'의 스토리텔링 요소와 수학내용 분석)

  • Kim, Ji-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.807-814
    • /
    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze storytelling factors and mathematics contents of 'Eddy, the clever fox' on TV animation. The scenario and animation were analyzed according as criterion based on relevant materials. The results are as follows: First, Characters are 11 animals, Eddy is a problem solver. An ordinary story happens in the snow-covered woodland village. There is no story plot. And the story consists dialogue, song and narration. Second, mathematics contents in the animation appear in order number sense, geometry, measurement, data analysis and probability, pattern. So 'Eddy, the clever fox' is valuable as edutainment.

Application Study of Nonstationary GEV Model for Annual Maximum Precipitation Data using AICc and BIC (AICc와 BIC를 이용한 비정상성 GEV 모형의 적용)

  • Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Sooyoung;Kim, Taereem;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2015.05a
    • /
    • pp.143-143
    • /
    • 2015
  • 기존의 빈도해석에서는 자료의 정상성을 가정하며, 이에 따라 적정모형 선정 시에 $x^2$ 검정이나 PPCC(Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient)검정과 같은 적합도 검정방법을 사용한다. 하지만 자료에서 경향성이 나타나거나 평균, 분산, 매개변수 등이 시간에 따라 변하는 등의 비정상성 현상들이 관측됨에 따라 비정상성 빈도해석에 관한 연구들이 활발히 진행되고 있다. 비정상성 빈도해석에서는 시간항과 같은 공변량이 포함된 매개변수를 가지는 비정상성 모형을 적용하게 되는데, 시간에 따라 매개변수가 계속 변하므로 매개변수에 따라 검정통계량이 고정되어 있는 기존의 적합도 검정방법의 적용이 어렵다. 따라서 비정상성 빈도해석의 적정 모형 선정에 적용할 수 있는 방법으로 최우도 함수에 기반한 모형 평가 방법인 AIC와 BIC가 추천되고 있으며 자료길이가 충분하지 않은 경우에는 AIC 대신하여 AICc의 사용이 추천되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 극치사상을 나타내는데 적합한 분포형인 GEV분포형의 위치, 규모 매개변수를 시간항으로 나타낸 다양한 비정상성 GEV모형에 대하여 Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 통해 AICc와 BIC의 적용성을 검토하였으며, 비정상성이 관측되는 실측 자료에 적용해보았다.

  • PDF

Blast Fragility and Sensitivity Analyses of Steel Moment Frames with Plan Irregularities

  • Kumar, Anil;Matsagar, Vasant
    • International journal of steel structures
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1684-1698
    • /
    • 2018
  • Fragility functions are determined for braced steel moment frames (SMFs) with plans such as square-, T-, L-, U-, trapezoidal-, and semicircular-shaped, subjected to blast. The frames are designed for gravity and seismic loads, but not necessarily for the blast loads. The blast load is computed for a wide range of scenarios involving different parameters, viz. charge weight, standoff distance, and blast location relative to plan of the structure followed by nonlinear dynamic analysis of the frames. The members failing in rotation lead to partial collapse due to plastic mechanism formation. The probabilities of partial collapse of the SMFs, with and without bracing system, due to the blast loading are computed to plot fragility curves. The charge weight and standoff distance are taken as Gaussian random input variables. The extent of propagation of the uncertainties in the input parameters onto the response quantities and fragility of the SMFs is assessed by computing Sobol sensitivity indices. The probabilistic analysis is conducted using Monte Carlo simulations. The frames have least failure probability for blasts occurring in front of their corners or convex face. Further, the unbraced frames are observed to have higher fragility as compared to counterpart braced frames for far-off detonations.

Electrical Insulation Properties of Nanocomposites with SiO2 and MgO Filler

  • Jeong, In-Bum;Kim, Joung-Sik;Lee, Jong-Yong;Hong, Jin-Woong;Shin, Jong-Yeol
    • Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
    • /
    • v.11 no.6
    • /
    • pp.261-265
    • /
    • 2010
  • In this paper, we attempt to improve the electrical characteristics of epoxy resin at high temperature (above $80^{\circ}C$) by adding magnesium oxide (MgO), which has high thermal conductivity. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) of the dispersion of specimens with added MgO reveals that they are evenly dispersed without concentration. The dielectric breakdown characteristics of $SiO_2$ and MgO nanocomposites are tested by measurements at different temperatures to investigate the filler's effect on the dielectric breakdown characteristics. The dielectric breakdown strength of specimens with added $SiO_2$ decreases slowly below $80^{\circ}C$ (low temperature) but decreases rapidly above $80^{\circ}C$ (high temperature). However, the gradient of the dielectric breakdown strength of specimens with added MgO is slow at both low and high temperatures. The dielectric breakdown strength of specimens with 0.4 wt% $SiO_2$ is the best among the specimens with added $SiO_2$, and that of specimens with 3.0 wt% and 5.0 wt% MgO is the best among those with added MgO. Moreover, the dielectric strength of specimens with 3.0 wt% MgO at high temperatures is approximately 53.3% higher than that of specimens with added $SiO_2$ at $100^{\circ}C$, and that of specimens with 5.0 wt% of MgO is approximately 59.34% higher under the same conditions. The dielectric strength of MgO is believed to be superior to that of $SiO_2$ owing to enhanced thermal radiation because the thermal conductivity rate of MgO (approximately 42 $W/m{\cdot}K$) is approximately 32 times higher than that of $SiO_2$ (approximately 1.3 $W/m{\cdot}K$). We also confirmed that the allowable breakdown strength of specimens with added MgO at $100^{\circ}C$ is within the error range when the breakdown probability of all specimens is 40%. A breakdown probability of up to 40% represents a stable dielectric strength in machinery and apparatus design.

Validation of Prediction Equations to Estimate the Energy Values of Feedstuffs for Broilers: Performance and Carcass Yield

  • Alvarenga, R.R.;Rodrigues, P.B.;Zangeronimo, M.G.;Makiyama, L.;Oliveira, E.C.;Freitas, R.T.F.;Lima, R.R.;Bernardino, V.M.P.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • v.26 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1474-1483
    • /
    • 2013
  • The objective was to evaluate the use of prediction equations based on the chemical composition of feedstuffs to estimate the values of apparent metabolisable energy corrected for nitrogen balance (AMEn) of corn and soybean meal for broilers. For performance and carcass characteristics, 1,200 one-d-old birds (male and female) were allotted to a completely randomised factorial $2{\times}8$ (two genders and eight experimental diets) with three replicates of each sex with 25 birds. In the metabolism trial, 240 eight-d-old birds were distributed in the same design, but with a split plot in time (age of evaluation) with five, four and three birds per plot, respectively, in stages 8 to 21, 22 to 35, and 36 to 42 d of age. The treatments consisted of the use of six equations systems to predict the AMEn content of feedstuffs, tables of food composition and AMEn values obtained by in vivo assay, totalling eight treatments. Means were compared by Scott-Knott test at 5% probability and a confidence interval of 95% was used to check the fit of the energy values of the diets to the requirements of the birds. As a result of this study, the use of prediction equations resulted in better adjustment to the broiler requirements, resulting in better performance and carcass characteristics compared to the use of tables, however, the use of energy values of feedstuffs obtained by in vivo assay is still the most effective. The best equations were: AMEn = 4,021.8-227.55 Ash (for corn) combined with AMEn = -822.33+69.54 CP-45.26 ADF+90.81 EE (for soybean meal); AMEn = 36.21 CP+85.44 EE+37.26 NFE (nitrogen-free extract) (for corn) combined with AMEn = 37.5 CP+46.39 EE+14.9 NFE (for soybean); and AMEn = 4,164.187+51.006 EE-197.663 Ash-35.689 CF-20.593 NDF (for corn and soybean meal).

Black Hispanic and Black Non-Hispanic Breast Cancer Survival Data Analysis with Half-normal Model Application

  • Khan, Hafiz Mohammad Rafiqullah;Saxena, Anshul;Vera, Veronica;Abdool-Ghany, Faheema;Gabbidon, Kemesha;Perea, Nancy;Stewart, Tiffanie Shauna-Jeanne;Ramamoorthy, Venkataraghavan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.15 no.21
    • /
    • pp.9453-9458
    • /
    • 2014
  • Background: Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death for women in the United States. Differences in survival of breast cancer have been noted among racial and ethnic groups, but the reasons for these disparities remain unclear. This study presents the characteristics and the survival curve of two racial and ethnic groups and evaluates the effects of race on survival times by measuring the lifetime data-based half-normal model. Materials and Methods: The distributions among racial and ethnic groups are compared using female breast cancer patients from nine states in the country all taken from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry. The main end points observed are: age at diagnosis, survival time in months, and marital status. The right skewed half-normal statistical probability model is used to show the differences in the survival times between black Hispanic (BH) and black non-Hispanic (BNH) female breast cancer patients. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard ratio are used to estimate and compare the relative risk of death in two minority groups, BH and BNH. Results: A probability random sample method was used to select representative samples from BNH and BH female breast cancer patients, who were diagnosed during the years of 1973-2009 in the United States. The sample contained 1,000 BNH and 298 BH female breast cancer patients. The median age at diagnosis was 57.75 years among BNH and 54.11 years among BH. The results of the half-normal model showed that the survival times formed positive skewed models with higher variability in BNH compared with BH. The Kaplan-Meir estimate was used to plot the survival curves for cancer patients; this test was positively skewed. The Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard ratio for survival analysis showed that BNH had a significantly longer survival time as compared to BH which is consistent with the results of the half-normal model. Conclusions: The findings with the proposed model strategy will assist in the healthcare field to measure future outcomes for BH and BNH, given their past history and conditions. These findings may provide an enhanced and improved outlook for the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer patients in the United States.

Effects of Temperature Stress on VFB Shifts of HfO2-SiO2 Double Gate Dielectrics Devices

  • Lee, Kyung-Su;Kim, Sang-Sub;Choi, Byoung-Deog
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
    • /
    • 2012.08a
    • /
    • pp.340-341
    • /
    • 2012
  • In this work, we investigated the effects of temperature stress on flatband voltage (VFB) shifts of HfO2-SiO2 double gate dielectrics devices. Fig. 1 shows a high frequency C-V of the device when a positive bias for 10 min and a subsequent negative bias for 10 min were applied at room temperature (300 K). Fig. 2 shows the corresponding plot when the same positive and negative biases were applied at a higher temperature (473.15 K). These measurements are based on the BTS (bias temperature stress) about mobile charge in the gate oxides. These results indicate that the positive bias stress makes no difference, whereas the negative bias stress produces a significant difference; that is, the VFB value increased from ${\Delta}0.51$ V (300 K, Fig. 1) to ${\Delta}14.45$ V (473.15 K, Fig. 2). To explain these differences, we propose a mechanism on the basis of oxygen vacancy in HfO2. It is well-known that the oxygen vacancy in the p-type MOS-Cap is located within 1 eV below the bottom of the HfO2 conduction band (Fig. 3). In addition, this oxygen vacancy can easily trap the electron. When heated at 473.15 K, the electron is excited to a higher energy level from the original level (Fig. 4). As a result, the electron has sufficient energy to readily cross over the oxide barrier. The probability of trap about oxygen vacancy becomes very higher at 473.15 K, and therefore the VFB shift value becomes considerably larger.

  • PDF

The Production and Spatial Heterogeneity of Litterfall in the Mixed Broadleaved-Korean Pine Forest of Xiaoxing'an Mountains, China

  • Jin, Guangze;Zhao, Fengxia;Liu, Liang;Kim, Ji Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.97 no.2
    • /
    • pp.165-170
    • /
    • 2008
  • Litterfall has been recognized an important part of the forest ecosystem production, playing a major pathway in energy flow and nutrient cycling through the ecosystem. This study was carried out to examine the quantity and components, temporal variation, and spatial heterogeneity of the litterfall in the mixed broadleaved-Korean pine forest. The data were collected from the 9ha permanent experimental plot, of which on the center area, i.e. $150m{\times}150m$, the total number of 319 circular litterfall traps with the size of $0.5m^2$ were established to collect falling litterfall. The results showed that the annual amount of litterfall was totalized 3,033.7 kg/ha, occupying broad-leaves of 39.3%, conifer-leaves of 29.5%, others of 18.5%, branches of 10.4%, and seeds of 2.3%. The peak point of the litterfall production was made at the end of September, proportionating 32.2% of total amount. The analysis of semivariogram revealed the existence of high spatial heterogeneity, calculated the scale of spatial heterogeneity ranged from 11.6 m to 29.1 m. The result of proportion (C/[Co+C]) showed that spatial heterogeneity of autocorrelation in total spatial heterogeneity were from 97.0% to 100%. The relatively heavy branches and others had significant differences in litterfall production between the areas of canopy gap and closed canopy in the 95% probability level, but the other components did not show statistical differences.

An Exploratory Analysis on Adoption of Potential Customers in Transmedia Storytelling : Emphasis on Korean TV Drama and Movie (잠재고객의 OSMU(One Source Multi Use) 콘텐츠 수용에 대한 탐색적 분석 : 영화, 드라마를 중심으로)

  • Park, Bong-Won;Lee, Kun-Chang
    • Korean Management Science Review
    • /
    • v.27 no.2
    • /
    • pp.81-95
    • /
    • 2010
  • There is an increasing interest in contents such as movie, drama and game using transmedia storytelling. It includes Le Grand Chef, The War of Flower, Dae Jang Geum, The Matrix, Harry Potter and The Lord of the Rings. However, transmedia contents have not always been successful. To study the factors affecting possible outcomes of transmedia storytelling, we analyzed the intention on transmedia of potential consumers who have not been exposed to transmedia contents before. To this end, we investigated two different cases : first, potential customer intention to watch dramas which will be produced after launching comic-based movies; second, potential customer intention to see movies which will be made after broadcasting comic-based TV dramas. In each case, we analyzed the outcomes from potential customers by applying several variables including gender, exposure to the original and components of contents (plot, quality of act and music etc). Our study showed that potential customers prefer movies or TV dramas with quality of acting, directing, casting and storylines. Interestingly, the quality of acting is more important in dramas than in movies and casting is an appealing factor to potential customers in movies. In TV drama cases, potential customers have high watching intentions when they read the original content. Among them, male potential customer have low watching intentions on TV drama when they did not read the original content. However, female potential customers have high watching intentions on TV drama regardless of the previous exposure to the originals. In movie cases, female potential customers have higher intentions on seeing movies than male. These results suggest that one needs to consider several factors such as casting, acting and gender for generating transmedia contents with a high probability of success.

Simultaneous Comparison of Efficacy and Adverse Events of Interventions for Patients with Esophageal Cancer: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Bayesian Network Meta-analysis

  • Doosti-Irani, Amin;Mansournia, Mohammad Ali;Rahimi-Foroushani, Abbas;Cheraghi, Zahra;Holakouie-Naieni, Kourosh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.867-872
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background: Esophageal cancer is one of the most serious malignancies. Due to the aggressive nature of this cancer, the prognosis is poor. A network meta-analysis with simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments can help determine better treatment options that have higher effects on overall survival of patients with lower adverse events. The aim of this review is to simultaneously compare efficacy and adverse events of treatment interventions for esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods: In this review, only randomized control trials (RCT) will be considered for network meta-analysis. All international electronic databases including Medline, Web of Sciences, Scopus, Cochran's library, EMBASE and Cancerlit will be searched to find randomized control trials which compared two or more treatment interventions for esophageal cancer. A network plot will be drawn for visual representation of all available treatment interventions. Bayesian approach will be used to combine the direct and indirect evidence. Treatment effects (e.g. hazard ratio for time to event outcomes, risk ratio for binary outcomes, and rate ratio for count outcomes with 95% credible interval) will be reported. Moreover, cumulative probability of the treatment ranks will be reported using the surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) graphs. Consistency assumption will be assessed by the loop-specific and design-by-treatment interaction approaches. Conclusions: The results of this study may be helpful for the patients, clinicians and health policy makers in selecting treatments that have the best effect on survival and lowest adverse events.