• 제목/요약/키워드: probability plot

검색결과 97건 처리시간 0.028초

Simple Forecasting of Surface Ozone through a Statistical Approach

  • Ma, Chang-Jin;Kang, Gong-Unn
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제44권6호
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    • pp.539-547
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: Ozone ($O_3$) advisories are issued by provincial/prefectural and city governments in Korea and Japan when oxidant concentrations exceed the criteria of the related country. Advisories issued only after exposure to high $O_3$ concentrations cannot be considered ideal measures. Forecasts of $O_3$ would be more beneficial to citizens' health and daily life than real-time advisories. The present study was undertaken to present a simplified forecasting model that can predict surface $O_3$ concentrations for the afternoon of the day of the forecast. Methods: For the construction of a simple and practical model, a multivariate regression model was applied. The monitored data on gases and climate variables from Japan's air quality networks that were recorded over nearly one year starting from April 2016 were applied as the subject for our model. Results: A well-known inverse correlation between $NO_2$ and $O_3$ was confirmed by the monitored data for Iksan, Korea and Fukuoka, Japan. Typical time fluctuations for $O_3$ and $NO_x$ were also found. Our model suggests that insolation is the most influential factor in determining the concentration of $O_3$. $CH_4$ also plays a major role in our model. It was possible to visually check for the fit of a theoretical distribution to the observed data by examining the probability-probability (P-P) scatter plot. The goodness of fit of the model in this study was also successfully validated through a comparison (r=0.8, p<0.05) of the measured and predicted $O_3$ concentrations. Conclusions: The advantage of our model is that it is capable of immediate forecasting of surface $O_3$ for the afternoon of the day from the routinely measured values of the precursor and meteorological parameters. Although a comparison to other approaches for $O_3$ forecasting was not carried out, the model suggested in this study would be very helpful for the citizens of Korea and Japan, especially during the $O_3$ season from May to June.

Predicting As Contamination Risk in Red River Delta using Machine Learning Algorithms

  • Ottong, Zheina J.;Puspasari, Reta L.;Yoon, Daeung;Kim, Kyoung-Woong
    • 자원환경지질
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    • 제55권2호
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2022
  • Excessive presence of As level in groundwater is a major health problem worldwide. In the Red River Delta in Vietnam, several million residents possess a high risk of chronic As poisoning. The As releases into groundwater caused by natural process through microbially-driven reductive dissolution of Fe (III) oxides. It has been extracted by Red River residents using private tube wells for drinking and daily purposes because of their unawareness of the contamination. This long-term consumption of As-contaminated groundwater could lead to various health problems. Therefore, a predictive model would be useful to expose contamination risks of the wells in the Red River Delta Vietnam area. This study used four machine learning algorithms to predict the As probability of study sites in Red River Delta, Vietnam. The GBM was the best performing model with the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity of 98.7%, 100%, 95.2%, and 100%, respectively. In addition, it resulted the highest AUC of 92% and 96% for the PRC and ROC curves, with Eh and Fe as the most important variables. The partial dependence plot of As concentration on the model parameters showed that the probability of high level of As is related to the low number of wells' depth, Eh, and SO4, along with high PO43- and NH4+. This condition triggers the reductive dissolution of iron phases, thus releasing As into groundwater.

Investigating the future changes of extreme precipitation indices in Asian regions dominated by south Asian summer monsoon

  • Deegala Durage Danushka Prasadi Deegala;Eun-Sung Chung
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.174-174
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    • 2023
  • The impact of global warming on the south Asian summer monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. This study aims to investigate the future changes of the precipitation extremes during pre-monsoon and monsoon, across this region in a more organized regional structure. The study area is divided into six major divisions based on the Köppen-Geiger's climate structure and 10 sub-divisions considering the geographical locations. The future changes of extreme precipitation indices are analyzed for each zone separately using five indices from ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices); R10mm, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and PRCPTOT. 10 global climate model (GCM) outputs from the latest CMIP6 under four combinations of SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are used. The GCMs are bias corrected using nonparametric quantile transformation based on the smoothing spline method. The future period is divided into near future (2031-2065) and far future (2066-2100) and then the changes are compared based on the historical period (1980-2014). The analysis is carried out separately for pre-monsoon (March, April, May) and monsoon (June, July, August, September). The methodology used to compare the changes is probability distribution functions (PDF). Kernel density estimation is used to plot the PDFs. For this study we did not use a multi-model ensemble output and the changes in each extreme precipitation index are analyzed GCM wise. From the results it can be observed that the performance of the GCMs vary depending on the sub-zone as well as on the precipitation index. Final conclusions are made by removing the poor performing GCMs and by analyzing the overall changes in the PDFs of the remaining GCMs.

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Development of novel microsatellite markers to analyze the genetic structure of dog populations in Taiwan

  • Lai, Fang-Yu;Lin, Yu-Chen;Ding, Shih-Torng;Chang, Chi-Sheng;Chao, Wi-Lin;Wang, Pei-Hwa
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • 제35권9호
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    • pp.1314-1326
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    • 2022
  • Objective: Alongside the rise of animal-protection awareness in Taiwan, the public has been paying more attention to dog genetic deficiencies due to inbreeding in the pet market. The goal of this study was to isolate novel microsatellite markers for monitoring the genetic structure of domestic dog populations in Taiwan. Methods: A total of 113 DNA samples from three dog breeds-beagles (BEs), bichons (BIs), and schnauzers (SCs)-were used in subsequent polymorphic tests applying the 14 novel microsatellite markers that were isolated in this study. Results: The results showed that the high level of genetic diversity observed in these novel microsatellite markers provided strong discriminatory power. The estimated probability of identity (P(ID)) and the probability of identity among sibs (P(ID)sib) for the 14 novel microsatellite markers were 1.7×10-12 and 1.6×10-5, respectively. Furthermore, the power of exclusion for the 14 novel microsatellite markers was 99.98%. The neighbor-joining trees constructed among the three breeds indicated that the 14 sets of novel microsatellite markers were sufficient to correctly cluster the BEs, BIs, and SCs. The principal coordinate analysis plot showed that the dogs could be accurately separated by these 14 loci based on different breeds; moreover, the Beagles from different sources were also distinguished. The first, the second, and the third principal coordinates could be used to explain 44.15%, 26.35%, and 19.97% of the genetic variation. Conclusion: The results of this study could enable powerful monitoring of the genetic structure of domestic dog populations in Taiwan.

ROC(receiver operating characteristics) 해석 (Interpretation of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC))

  • 김재덕
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.155-158
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    • 2000
  • 1. 일반방사선사진과 칼라화한 방사선사진의 비교에서 각각 필름에서 진단을 시행할 때 ROC해석법에서는 true positive fraction (TPF), false positive fraction (FPF)를 매개변수로 하고 있으므로 우선 두가지 필름형태에 대해 각각 따로 다음과 같이 평가한다. 2. 판정기준 병변없다 A, 거의 없다 B, 모르겠다 C, 거의 있다 D, 있다 E 먼저 일반방사선사진에서 실제로 병소가 총있는 것이 50, 총없는 것이 50인데 위 판정기준 각각에 대해(equation omitted) 3. 곡선만들기 a.횡축은 FPF 종축은 TPF로 한 그래프를 plot를 한다. sensitivity 17/50 specificity 26/50 accuracy 43/100 b. 곡선만들기 프로그램을 이용하여 곡선을 만들시에는 TPF를 a에 입력하고 PFP를 b에 입력한다. 이 plot을 그릴 수 있는 프로그램은 http://www.members.tripod.co.kr/jdakim 또는 http://www.chosun.ac.kr/∼jdakim의 홈페이지내 공개자료실에서 다운 받으실 수 있습니다. (equation omitted) 이 프로그램에서 입력할 a, b의 값은 (equation omitted) 위와같이 입력하여 얻어진 일반방사선사진에서의 판독 결과 얻어진 곡선이 그래프에서 곡선이 된다. 이와 같은 커브를 컬러화한 사진 판독에서 똑같이 시행하여 ROC곡선(윗곡선)을 만든 다음 두 곡선을 비교하여 아래면적이 더 큰 쪽이 병소 판독에 우수하다고 결론짓는다.

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Delay analysis for a discretionary-priority packet-switching system

  • Hong, Sung-Jo;Takagi, Hideaki
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 1995년도 춘계공동학술대회논문집; 전남대학교; 28-29 Apr. 1995
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    • pp.729-738
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    • 1995
  • We consider a priority-based packet-switching system with three phases of the packet transmission time. Each packet belongs to one of several priority classes, and the packets of each class arrive at a switch in a Poison process. The switch transmits queued packets on a priority basis with three phases of preemption mechanism. Namely, the transmission time of each packet consists of a preemptive-repeat part for the header, a preemptive-resume part for the information field, and a nonpreemptive part for the trailer. By an exact analysis of the associated queueing model, we obtain the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the distribution function for the delay, i.e., the time from arrival to transmission completion, of a packet for each class. We derive a set of equations that calculates the mean response time for each class recursively. Based on this result, we plot the numerical values of the mean response times for several parameter settings. The probability generating function and the mean for the number of packets of each class present in the system at an arbitrary time are also given.

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Televiewer에서 관찰되는 단열특성과 수리전도도와의 상관관계 분석

  • 박경우;배대석;김경수;고용권
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지하수토양환경학회 2005년도 총회 및 춘계학술발표회
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    • pp.284-287
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    • 2005
  • The flow of groundwater in fractured medium is related to the geometric characteristics of the fracture system. And a fracture aperture and a fracture density are considered as important factor concerning the permeability. Data acquisition of the properties of fracture such as aperture and density is so difficult and has uncertainty. We also cannot know the fracture characteristics through the in-situ tests. We usually obtain the fracture information from a ultrasonic scan logging or borehole television indirectly. Using the deduced results, we can make the fracture system and simulate the groundwater flow and solute transport in the crystalline rock. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between the properties of fracture and hydraulic conductivities obtained at the same interval. The properties of fracture are examined by acoustic televiwer and hydraulic conductivities are obtained by constant Pressure injection test. The distributioin of fracture width and fracture frequency shows the log-normal probability plot. And, Results of correlation analysis explain that opened type fractures have proper relation with hydraulic conductivity. But, as though there are semi-opened type fractures or closed type fractures, those have the permeable structure.

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산지사면의 침식에 영향을 주는 지형인자에 관한 연구 (Geomorphic Variables Influential to Develop Erosional Characteristics)

  • Yoo-Jeong Hwang
    • 대한지리학회지
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.365-376
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    • 1998
  • 본 연구는 사면에서 식생이 제거된 후 침식지형이 발달하는 경우에 어떠한 지형인자가 영향을 줄 수 있는지를 알고자 하는 것이다. 지금까지 보고된, 사면에서 일어날 수 있는 지형형성작용에는 표면침식과 사면이동이 있으며, 본 연구 지역에서는 사면이동보다는 표면침식이 진행되었던 것으로 판명되었다. 연구지역에서 영향을 준 지형인자를 비교하기 위해서 사면의 면적과 사면의 길이, 너비, 사면의 경사, 사면의 형태, 사면의 방향 등이 지형인자로 고려되었다. 통계적인 모델링을 통하여 나타난 회귀모델은 사면의 면적과 사면의 길이, 너비가 표면 침식의 정도를 좌우하는 지형인자로 판명되었다.

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배전계통 설비의 시변 고장률 추출 (Extraction of Time-varying Failure Rate for Power Distribution System Equipment)

  • 문종필;이희태;김재철;박창호
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제54권11호
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    • pp.548-556
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    • 2005
  • Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR

토양조건에 미치는 낙엽의 영향(제2보) 낙엽부패에 의한 토양성분 변화 (Effect of Litter on the Soil Condition(II) Varieties of Soil Fertility due to the Decomposition of Litters on the Soil.)

  • 차종환
    • Journal of Plant Biology
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 1969
  • In this experiment, the litters of each five species of neadle-leaf trees and broad-leaf trees were laid on each pot soils, which had same soil conditions, is the green house and the sil fertility of each pots were determined after four years. Chemical properties among each pot soils under litters of needle-laef trees showed remarkable different values in the pH, base exchange capacity, total exchangeable base, base saturation, organic matter, available phosphorus, exchangeable potassium and calcium, and that of broad-leaf trees showed respectively significant difference. The content of chemical components, such as total exchangeable base, organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and exchanbeable potassium, between pot soils under litters of the needle-leaf trees and the broad-leaf trees were significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 levels of the statistical probability. The fertility of soil under the influence of decayed fallen leaves is the highest value in the posts of broad-leaves and next to the pots of needle-leaves and the control pots the lowest. The pH value of the soil with various kinds of fallen leaves showed little difference among themselves, but it especially approached in the broad leaves plots gradually to neutral and hte non-treated plot showed acidity. Lespedeza bicolar and Castanea crenata are supposed to contribute to the fertility of soil. Pinus rigida showed excellent exchanged properties of soi. The leaves of Robinia pseudoacacia and Pinus koraiensis did not contribute much to the promotion of fertility of soil.

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