• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of pipe damage

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Methodology for Estimating the Probability of Damage to a Heat Transmission Pipe (열수송관 파손확률 추정 방법론 개발)

  • Kong, Myeongsik;Kang, Jaemo
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2021
  • Losses of both life and property increased from damage to underground pipe such as heat transmission pipe buried underground in downtown because pipes are gradually aging. Considering the characteristics of the heat transmission pipe, which is not exposed to the outside and difficult to immediately identify problems such as damage, it is realistic to indirectly check the condition of the facility based on the historical information that is periodically collected through facility maintenance. In this study, a methodology for estimating the damage probability was developed by examining the history information of the heat transmission pipe, deriving an evaluation factor that is related to the damage probability. The contribution factor of the damage probability were reviewed by analyzing not only the guidelines for maintenance of heat transmission pipe of advanced European countries and domestic district heating companies, but also the cases of waterworks with similar characteristics. Evaluation factors were selected by considering not only the correlation with the damage probability but also the possibility of securing data. Based on 1999, when the construction technology and standards of heat transmission pipe changed, the damage probability estimation function according to the period of use was divided into the case of being buried before 1998 and the case of being buried after 1999, and presented. In addition, the damage probability was corrected by assigning weights according to the measured data for each evaluation factor such as the diameter, use, and management authority.

An Assessment Pipe Damage Probability of High Pressure Underground Pipeline in Industrial Estate (산업단지 고압매설배관의 손상확률 평가)

  • Kim, jin-jun;Rhie, Kwang-Won;Choi, hun-ung;Choi, ji-hun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2019
  • The frequency of major accidents which has probability of occurrence at the high pressure underground pipeline of industrial estate such an Ulsan, Yeo-ju by the other construction such as an excavation work will be compared to city gas underground pipeline to derive the basic event by the FTA and present. Also, Observe and analyze the pipe damage impact factor such as an excavation frequency, patrol cycle. As a result, It contributes to the safety improvement of high pressure gas buried pipeline due to obtain importance and sensitivity of the pipe damge impact factors.

Development of P-PIE Program for Evaluating Failure Probability of Pipes in Nuclear Power Plants (원전 배관의 파손확률평가를 위한 P-PIE 프로그램의 개발)

  • Park, Jai-Hak;Lee, Jae-Bong;Choi, Young-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2010
  • P-PIE program is developed for evaluating failure probability of pipes in nuclear power plants based on the existing PRAISE program. In the program, crack growth due to fatigue loading and stress corrosion can be considered and the probability of fracture or leakage of pipes can be calculated. Crack growth simulation is performed based on stress intensity factor and a damage parameter and failure of a pipe is determined based on J integral or net section yielding. Using the developed program the failure probabilities of tubes in a domestic nuclear power is obtained and discussed.

Development of optimum pump operation technique for the damage rate reduction of water distribution system (상수도관망의 피해율 저감을 위한 가압장 최적운영기법 개발)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Jae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.373-380
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the optimum pump operation technique is suggested to decrease the damage rate of water distribution system. Pump operation system was developed to achieve the effective pump operation. Pressure sensors which can communicate with pumps are installed at the end of water distribution system. Pump operation system can control the pressure of water pump according to data sent from the pressure sensors. Therefore, water distribution system can reduce the pressure and maintain enough pressure which can supply the demand of water users. For proving effectiveness of new system, reliability model was introduced to compare the results of damage rates between the maintaining high pressure and selective pressure in water pump. Unsteady analysis was conducted with several scenarios. And the results were used to calculate the probability of pipe breakage. From the results, it was found that new pump operation system can reduce the energy usage and probability of pipe breakage by applying to pumps.

Seismic Fragility of Steel Piping System Based on Pipe Size, Coupling Type, and Wall Thickness

  • Ju, Bu Seog;Gupta, Abhinav;Ryu, Yonghee
    • International journal of steel structures
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1200-1209
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    • 2018
  • In this study, a probabilistic framework of the damage assessment of pipelines subjected to extreme hazard scenario was developed to mitigate the risk and enhance design reliability. Nonlinear 3D finite element models of T-joint systems were developed based on experimental tests with respect to leakage detection of black iron piping systems, and a damage assessment analysis of the vulnerability of their components according to nominal pipe size, coupling type, and wall thickness under seismic wave propagations was performed. The analysis results showed the 2-inch schedule 40 threaded T-joint system to be more fragile than the others with respect to the nominal pipe sizes. As for the coupling types, the data indicated that the probability of failure of the threaded T-joint coupling was significantly higher than that of the grooved type. Finally, the seismic capacity of the schedule 40 wall thickness was weaker than that of schedule 10 in the 4-inch grooved coupling, due to the difference in the prohibition of energy dissipation. Therefore, this assessment can contribute to the damage detection and financial losses due to failure of the joint piping system in a liquid pipeline, prior to the decision-making.

Design Consideration about Large Caliber Piping of Polyethylene Material (폴리에틸렌 소재의 대구경 배관 설계 고찰)

  • Kim, Eung-Soo;Yoon, Myong-O
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.44-49
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    • 2013
  • As the polyethylene of high strength and ductility stabilized chemically has been mass-produced, it is spreading widely as material of industrial piping and water service piping. Recently, High density polyethylene (HDPE) pipe has been used even in water supply system of plant as buried pipe instead of cast iron pipe in domestic, but HDPE pipe has a probability of occurrence of damage if plant design and operating conditions are not considered. As a result of reviewing with respect of system design engineering based on operating conditions and verification test results, the specific design criteria for the use of HDPE piping in fire water supply system need to be established because of the possibility of crack damage due to water hammer.

Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

Visualization Technology of GIS Associated with Seismic Fragility Analysis of Buried Pipelines in the Domestic Urban Area (국내 도심지 매설가스배관의 지진취약도 분석 연계 GIS 정보 가시화 기술)

  • Lee, Jinhyuk;Cha, Kyunghwa;Song, Sangguen;Kong, Jung Sik
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2015
  • City-based Lifeline is expected to cause significant social and economic loss accompanied the secondary damage such as paralysis of urban functions and a large fire as well as the collapse caused by earthquake. Earthquake Disaster Response System of Korea is being operated with preparation, calculates the probability of failure of the facility through Seismic Fragility Model and evaluates the degree of earthquake disaster. In this paper, the time history analysis of buried gas pipeline in city-based lifeline was performed with consideration for ground characteristics and also seismic fragility model was developed by maximum likelihood estimation method. Analysis model was selected as the high-pressure pipe and the normal-pressure pipe buried in the city of Seoul, Korea's representative, modeling of soil was used for Winkler foundation model. Also, method to apply developed fragility model at GIS is presented.

A Study on the Safety Improvement of Buried Pipeline Using Scoring Model (Scoring Model을 이용한 매설배관 안전성 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Myoung-Duck;Kim, Sung-Keun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.175-185
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    • 2017
  • As the gas is manufactured, handled and used more often due to the continuous increase of gas, the related facility gets expanded and more complex causing small and big accident which causes economic loss including damage for humans and materials. The gas pipeline, the most common gas facility, has the biggest risk of accidents. Especially in the urban area and densely populated areas, the accident due to the high pressure pipeline may cause even more serious damages. To prevent the accident caused by the buried pipeline, it is required for the relevant authorities to evaluate the damage and risk of the whole pipeline system effectively. A risk is usually defined as a possibility or probability of an undesired event happening, and there is always a risk even when the probability of failure is set low once the pipeline is installed or under operation. It is reported that the accident caused by the failure of the pipeline rarely happens, however, it is important to minimize the rate of accidents by analyzing the reason of failure as it could cause a huge damage of humans and property. Therefore, the paper rated the risk of pipelines with quantitative numbers using the qualitative risk analysis method of the Scoring Model. It is assumed that the result could be effectively used for practical maintenance and management of pipelines securing the safety of the pipes.

Determination of proper ground motion prediction equation for reasonable evaluation of the seismic reliability in the water supply systems (상수도 시스템 지진 신뢰성의 합리적 평가를 위한 적정 지반운동예측식 결정)

  • Choi, Jeongwook;Kang, Doosun;Jung, Donghwi;Lee, Chanwook;Yoo, Do Guen;Jo, Seong-Bae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.661-670
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    • 2020
  • The water supply system has a wider installation range and various components of it than other infrastructure, making it difficult to secure stability against earthquakes. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods for evaluating the seismic performance of water supply systems. Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) is used to evaluate the seismic performance (e.g, failure probability) for water supply facilities such as pump, water tank, and pipes. GMPE is calculated considering the independent variables such as the magnitude of the earthquake and the ground motion such as PGV (Peak Ground Velocity) and PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration). Since the large magnitude earthquake data has not accumulated much to date in Korea, this study tried to select a suitable GMPE for the domestic earthquake simulation by using the earthquake data measured in Korea. To this end, GMPE formula is calculated based on the existing domestic earthquake and presented the results. In the future, it is expected that the evaluation will be more appropriate if the determined GMPE is used when evaluating the seismic performance of domestic waterworks. Appropriate GMPE can be directly used to evaluate hydraulic seismic performance of water supply networks. In other words, it is possible to quantify the damage rate of a pipeline during an earthquake through linkage with the pipe failure probability model, and it is possible to derive more reasonable results when estimating the water outage or low-pressure area due to pipe damages. Finally, the quantifying result of the seismic performance can be used as a design criteria for preparing an optimal restoration plan and proactive seismic design of pipe networks to minimize the damage in the event of an earthquake.