• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability of exceedance cumulative distribution

Search Result 4, Processing Time 0.017 seconds

Application of probabilistic method to determination of aerodynamic force coefficients on tall buildings

  • Yong Chul Kim;Shuyang Cao
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • v.36 no.4
    • /
    • pp.249-261
    • /
    • 2023
  • Aerodynamic force coefficients are generally prescribed by an ensemble average of ten and/or twenty 10-minute samples. However, this makes it difficult to identify the exact probability distribution and exceedance probability of the prescribed values. In this study, 12,600 10-minute samples on three tall buildings were measured, and the probability distributions were first identified and the aerodynamic force coefficients corresponding to the specific non-exceedance probabilities (cumulative probabilities) of wind load were then evaluated. It was found that the probability distributions of the mean and fluctuating aerodynamic force coefficients followed a normal distribution. The ratios of aerodynamic force coefficients corresponding to the specific non-exceedance probabilities (Cf,Non) to the ensemble average of 12,600 samples (Cf,Ens), which was defined as an adjusting factor (Cf,Non/Cf,Ens), were less than 2%. The effect of coefficient of variation of wind speed on the adjusting factor is larger than that of the annual non-exceedance probability of wind load. The non-exceedance probabilities of the aerodynamic force coefficient is between PC,nonex = 50% and 60% regardless of force components and aspect ratios. The adjusting factors from the Gumbel distribution were larger than those from the normal distribution.

Determination of epicenters and magnitudes of future earthquakes based on the historical earthquake catalogues (역사지진 기록을 기초로한 지진규모와 위치 예측 방법)

  • 권오성;한상환
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
    • /
    • 2000.10a
    • /
    • pp.323-330
    • /
    • 2000
  • Three historical earthquake catalogues were compared with each other in the view of frequency of events per century, cumulative magnitude distribution, and annual earthquake occurrence rate in each unit grid of 0.1°by 0.1°. And, a method to determine earthquake epicenters and magnitudes was proposed given the historical earthquake data. With this method, the epicenters and magnitudes of future earthquakes in Korean penninsula for 1,000 years were generated with each earthquake catalogue. Earthquake PGAs with 10% exceedance probability in Seoul were calculated for each catalogue and compared.

  • PDF

Annual Loss Probability Estimation of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames(SMRFs) using Seismic Fragility Analysis (지진취약도를 통한 철골모멘트골조의 연간 손실 평가)

  • Jun, Saemee;Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.517-524
    • /
    • 2014
  • The ultimate goal of seismic design is to reduce the probable losses or damages occurred during an expected earthquake event. To achieve this goal, this study represents a procedure that can estimate annual loss probability of a structure damaged by strong ground motion. First of all, probabilistic seismic performance assessment should be performed using seismic fragility analyses that are presented by a cumulative distribution function of the probability in each exceedance structural damage state. A seismic hazard curve is then derived from an annual frequency of exccedance per each ground motion intensity. An annual loss probability function is combined with seismic fragility analysis results and seismic hazard curves. In this paper, annual loss probabilities are estimated by the structural fragility curve of steel moment-resisting frames(SMRFs) in San Francisco Bay, USA, and are compared with loss estimation results obtained from the HAZUS methodology. It is investigated from the comparison that seismic losses of the SMRFs calculated from the HAZUS method are conservatively estimated. The procedure presented in this study could be effectively used for future studies related with structural seismic performance assessment and annual loss probability estimation.

Experimental Study on Interaction of Side-by-Side Moored Vessels (병렬계류 선박의 동유체력 상호간섭에 관한 실험연구)

  • Kim, Jin-Ha;Hong, Sa-Young;Cho, Seok-Gyo;Choi, Yoon-Rak;Song, Myong-Jae;Kim, Duk-Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
    • /
    • 2003.05a
    • /
    • pp.208-213
    • /
    • 2003
  • Recently, Side-by-side mooring system of LNG FPSO and shuttle tanker is one of hot issues in offshore floating body dynamics, which requires accurate analysis of hydrodynamic interactions between side by side moored LNG FPSO and shuttle tanker than tandem moored vessels. This paper aims to investigate basic interaction characteristics of side-by-side moored multiple vessels both numerically and experimentally. A higher-order boundary element method combined with generalized nwde approach will be applied to analysis of motion and drift force of side by side moored multiple-body. Model tests were carried out for the same multiple floating bodies in regular and irregular waves. Motion responses and drift forces of vessels for two mooring situation(coupled & uncoupled) were compared with those of calculations. Discussions will be highlighted on applicability of numerical method to prediction of sophisticated multi-body interaction problem of which motion behavior is very important to analysis of mooring dynamics of deep sea floating bodies.

  • PDF