• Title/Summary/Keyword: probability distribution

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Development of a Thermoplastic Oral Compensator for Improving Dose Uniformity in Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Cancer (두경부암 방사선치료 시 선량 균일도 향상을 위한 Thermoplastic 구강 보상체의 개발)

  • Choi, Joon-Yong;Won, Young-Jin;Park, Ji-Yeon;Kim, Jong-Won;Moon, Bong-Ki;Yoon, Hyong-Geun;Moon, Soo-Ho;Jeon, Jong-Byeong;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.269-278
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    • 2012
  • Aquaplast Thermoplastic (AT) is a tissue-equivalent oral compensator that has been developed to improve dose uniformity at the common boundary and around the treated area during radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer. In order to assess the usefulness of AT, the degree of improvement in dose distribution and physical properties were compared to those of oral compensators made using paraffin, alginate, and putty, which are materials conventionally used in dental imprinting. To assess the physical properties, strength evaluations (compression and drop evaluations) and natural deformation evaluations (volume change over time) were performed; a Gafchromic EBT2 film and a glass dosimeter inserted into a developed phantom for dose verification were used to measure the common boundary dose and the beam profile to assess the dose delivery. When the natural deformation of the oral compensators was assessed over a two-month period, alginate exhibited a maximum of 80% change in volume from moisture evaporation, while the remaining tissue-equivalent properties, including those of AT, showed a change in volume that was less than 3%. In a free-fall test at a height of 1.5 m (repeated 5 times as a strength evaluation), paraffin was easily damaged by the impact, but AT exhibited no damage from the fall. In compressive strength testing, AT was not destroyed even at 8 times the force needed for paraffin. In dose verification using a glass dosimeter, the results showed that in a single test, the tissue-equivalent (about 80 Hounsfield Units [HU]) AT delivered about 4.9% lower surface dose in terms of delivery of an output coefficient (monitor unit), which was 4% lower than putty and exhibited a value of about 1,000 HU or higher during a dose delivery of the same formulation. In addition, when the incident direction of the beam was used as a reference, the uniformity of the dose, as assessed from the beam profile at the boundary after passing through the oral compensators, was 11.41, 3.98, and 4.30 for air, AT, and putty, respectively. The AT oral compensator had a higher strength and lower probability of material transformation than the oral compensators conventionally used as a tissue-equivalent material, and a uniform dose distribution was successfully formed at the boundary and surrounding area including the mouth. It was also possible to deliver a uniformly formulated dose and reduce the skin dose delivery.

Distribution of Phosphate Fractions in Greenhouse Soils Located on Southwest Region in Korea (한국 남서(南西) 지역(地域) 시설(施設) 재배지(栽培地) 토양(土壤)중 인산염(燐酸鹽) 형태별(形態別) 함량(含量))

  • Suh, Jang-Sun;Song, Yo-Sung;Kim, Kwang-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.270-277
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    • 1995
  • The phosphate fractions and their relationships with other soil characteristics in greenhouse soils located on the southwest region in Korea were studied to demonstrate the possibility of the application of phosphate solubilizing microorganisms. The average contents of organic matter of 4.0% and exchangeable K, Ca, Mg of 1.16, 3.4, and $1.2cmol\;kg^{-1}$ respectively were higher than the aiming level for improvement of low fertile soil. Especially, available $P_2O_5$ of $1,193mg\;kg^{-1}$ was far more than the aiming level. The distribution of greenhouse soils classified by their total P contents was 46.1% for the range of $1,000{\sim}2,000mg\;kg^{-1}$, 29.6% for $2,000{\sim}3,000mg\;kg^{-1}$, and 12.9% for $3,000{\sim}4,000mg\;kg^{-1}$. And the soils containing more than $1,000mg\;kg^{-1}$, available $P_2O_5$ occupied 63.0% of the examined soils. The main forms of inorganic phosphates in greenhouse soils were Ca-P and Fe-P. The P fractions compared to total P were significantly correlated to soil pH, while available P was not so. Available phosphate was significantly correlated with the contents of organic matter and nitrogen, which are closely related to soil microbial activity, at the probability level of less than 1%.

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Anomaly Detection for User Action with Generative Adversarial Networks (적대적 생성 모델을 활용한 사용자 행위 이상 탐지 방법)

  • Choi, Nam woong;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.43-62
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    • 2019
  • At one time, the anomaly detection sector dominated the method of determining whether there was an abnormality based on the statistics derived from specific data. This methodology was possible because the dimension of the data was simple in the past, so the classical statistical method could work effectively. However, as the characteristics of data have changed complexly in the era of big data, it has become more difficult to accurately analyze and predict the data that occurs throughout the industry in the conventional way. Therefore, SVM and Decision Tree based supervised learning algorithms were used. However, there is peculiarity that supervised learning based model can only accurately predict the test data, when the number of classes is equal to the number of normal classes and most of the data generated in the industry has unbalanced data class. Therefore, the predicted results are not always valid when supervised learning model is applied. In order to overcome these drawbacks, many studies now use the unsupervised learning-based model that is not influenced by class distribution, such as autoencoder or generative adversarial networks. In this paper, we propose a method to detect anomalies using generative adversarial networks. AnoGAN, introduced in the study of Thomas et al (2017), is a classification model that performs abnormal detection of medical images. It was composed of a Convolution Neural Net and was used in the field of detection. On the other hand, sequencing data abnormality detection using generative adversarial network is a lack of research papers compared to image data. Of course, in Li et al (2018), a study by Li et al (LSTM), a type of recurrent neural network, has proposed a model to classify the abnormities of numerical sequence data, but it has not been used for categorical sequence data, as well as feature matching method applied by salans et al.(2016). So it suggests that there are a number of studies to be tried on in the ideal classification of sequence data through a generative adversarial Network. In order to learn the sequence data, the structure of the generative adversarial networks is composed of LSTM, and the 2 stacked-LSTM of the generator is composed of 32-dim hidden unit layers and 64-dim hidden unit layers. The LSTM of the discriminator consists of 64-dim hidden unit layer were used. In the process of deriving abnormal scores from existing paper of Anomaly Detection for Sequence data, entropy values of probability of actual data are used in the process of deriving abnormal scores. but in this paper, as mentioned earlier, abnormal scores have been derived by using feature matching techniques. In addition, the process of optimizing latent variables was designed with LSTM to improve model performance. The modified form of generative adversarial model was more accurate in all experiments than the autoencoder in terms of precision and was approximately 7% higher in accuracy. In terms of Robustness, Generative adversarial networks also performed better than autoencoder. Because generative adversarial networks can learn data distribution from real categorical sequence data, Unaffected by a single normal data. But autoencoder is not. Result of Robustness test showed that he accuracy of the autocoder was 92%, the accuracy of the hostile neural network was 96%, and in terms of sensitivity, the autocoder was 40% and the hostile neural network was 51%. In this paper, experiments have also been conducted to show how much performance changes due to differences in the optimization structure of potential variables. As a result, the level of 1% was improved in terms of sensitivity. These results suggest that it presented a new perspective on optimizing latent variable that were relatively insignificant.

A Case Study: Improvement of Wind Risk Prediction by Reclassifying the Detection Results (풍해 예측 결과 재분류를 통한 위험 감지확률의 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.149-155
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    • 2021
  • Early warning systems for weather risk management in the agricultural sector have been developed to predict potential wind damage to crops. These systems take into account the daily maximum wind speed to determine the critical wind speed that causes fruit drops and provide the weather risk information to farmers. In an effort to increase the accuracy of wind risk predictions, an artificial neural network for binary classification was implemented. In the present study, the daily wind speed and other weather data, which were measured at weather stations at sites of interest in Jeollabuk-do and Jeollanam-do as well as Gyeongsangbuk- do and part of Gyeongsangnam- do provinces in 2019, were used for training the neural network. These weather stations include 210 synoptic and automated weather stations operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The wind speed data collected at the same locations between January 1 and December 12, 2020 were used to validate the neural network model. The data collected from December 13, 2020 to February 18, 2021 were used to evaluate the wind risk prediction performance before and after the use of the artificial neural network. The critical wind speed of damage risk was determined to be 11 m/s, which is the wind speed reported to cause fruit drops and damages. Furthermore, the maximum wind speeds were expressed using Weibull distribution probability density function for warning of wind damage. It was found that the accuracy of wind damage risk prediction was improved from 65.36% to 93.62% after re-classification using the artificial neural network. Nevertheless, the error rate also increased from 13.46% to 37.64%, as well. It is likely that the machine learning approach used in the present study would benefit case studies where no prediction by risk warning systems becomes a relatively serious issue.

A Study on the Application of Outlier Analysis for Fraud Detection: Focused on Transactions of Auction Exception Agricultural Products (부정 탐지를 위한 이상치 분석 활용방안 연구 : 농수산 상장예외품목 거래를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Dongsung;Kim, Kitae;Kim, Jongwoo;Park, Steve
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.93-108
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    • 2014
  • To support business decision making, interests and efforts to analyze and use transaction data in different perspectives are increasing. Such efforts are not only limited to customer management or marketing, but also used for monitoring and detecting fraud transactions. Fraud transactions are evolving into various patterns by taking advantage of information technology. To reflect the evolution of fraud transactions, there are many efforts on fraud detection methods and advanced application systems in order to improve the accuracy and ease of fraud detection. As a case of fraud detection, this study aims to provide effective fraud detection methods for auction exception agricultural products in the largest Korean agricultural wholesale market. Auction exception products policy exists to complement auction-based trades in agricultural wholesale market. That is, most trades on agricultural products are performed by auction; however, specific products are assigned as auction exception products when total volumes of products are relatively small, the number of wholesalers is small, or there are difficulties for wholesalers to purchase the products. However, auction exception products policy makes several problems on fairness and transparency of transaction, which requires help of fraud detection. In this study, to generate fraud detection rules, real huge agricultural products trade transaction data from 2008 to 2010 in the market are analyzed, which increase more than 1 million transactions and 1 billion US dollar in transaction volume. Agricultural transaction data has unique characteristics such as frequent changes in supply volumes and turbulent time-dependent changes in price. Since this was the first trial to identify fraud transactions in this domain, there was no training data set for supervised learning. So, fraud detection rules are generated using outlier detection approach. We assume that outlier transactions have more possibility of fraud transactions than normal transactions. The outlier transactions are identified to compare daily average unit price, weekly average unit price, and quarterly average unit price of product items. Also quarterly averages unit price of product items of the specific wholesalers are used to identify outlier transactions. The reliability of generated fraud detection rules are confirmed by domain experts. To determine whether a transaction is fraudulent or not, normal distribution and normalized Z-value concept are applied. That is, a unit price of a transaction is transformed to Z-value to calculate the occurrence probability when we approximate the distribution of unit prices to normal distribution. The modified Z-value of the unit price in the transaction is used rather than using the original Z-value of it. The reason is that in the case of auction exception agricultural products, Z-values are influenced by outlier fraud transactions themselves because the number of wholesalers is small. The modified Z-values are called Self-Eliminated Z-scores because they are calculated excluding the unit price of the specific transaction which is subject to check whether it is fraud transaction or not. To show the usefulness of the proposed approach, a prototype of fraud transaction detection system is developed using Delphi. The system consists of five main menus and related submenus. First functionalities of the system is to import transaction databases. Next important functions are to set up fraud detection parameters. By changing fraud detection parameters, system users can control the number of potential fraud transactions. Execution functions provide fraud detection results which are found based on fraud detection parameters. The potential fraud transactions can be viewed on screen or exported as files. The study is an initial trial to identify fraud transactions in Auction Exception Agricultural Products. There are still many remained research topics of the issue. First, the scope of analysis data was limited due to the availability of data. It is necessary to include more data on transactions, wholesalers, and producers to detect fraud transactions more accurately. Next, we need to extend the scope of fraud transaction detection to fishery products. Also there are many possibilities to apply different data mining techniques for fraud detection. For example, time series approach is a potential technique to apply the problem. Even though outlier transactions are detected based on unit prices of transactions, however it is possible to derive fraud detection rules based on transaction volumes.

Development of Conformal Radiotherapy with Respiratory Gate Device (호흡주기에 따른 방사선입체조형치료법의 개발)

  • Chu Sung Sil;Cho Kwang Hwan;Lee Chang Geol;Suh Chang Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : 3D conformal radiotherapy, the optimum dose delivered to the tumor and provided the risk of normal tissue unless marginal miss, was restricted by organ motion. For tumors in the thorax and abdomen, the planning target volume (PTV) is decided including the margin for movement of tumor volumes during treatment due to patients breathing. We designed the respiratory gating radiotherapy device (RGRD) for using during CT simulation, dose planning and beam delivery at identical breathing period conditions. Using RGRD, reducing the treatment margin for organ (thorax or abdomen) motion due to breathing and improve dose distribution for 3D conformal radiotherapy. Materials and Methods : The internal organ motion data for lung cancer patients were obtained by examining the diaphragm in the supine position to find the position dependency. We made a respiratory gating radiotherapy device (RGRD) that is composed of a strip band, drug sensor, micro switch, and a connected on-off switch in a LINAC control box. During same breathing period by RGRD, spiral CT scan, virtual simulation, and 3D dose planing for lung cancer patients were peformed, without an extended PTV margin for free breathing, and then the dose was delivered at the same positions. We calculated effective volumes and normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) using dose volume histograms for normal lung, and analyzed changes in doses associated with selected NTCP levels and tumor control probabilities (TCP) at these new dose levels. The effects of 3D conformal radiotherapy by RGRD were evaluated with DVH (Dose Volume Histogram), TCP, NTCP and dose statistics. Results : The average movement of a diaphragm was 1.5 cm in the supine position when patients breathed freely. Depending on the location of the tumor, the magnitude of the PTV margin needs to be extended from 1 cm to 3 cm, which can greatly increase normal tissue irradiation, and hence, results in increase of the normal tissue complications probabiliy. Simple and precise RGRD is very easy to setup on patients and is sensitive to length variation (+2 mm), it also delivers on-off information to patients and the LINAC machine. We evaluated the treatment plans of patients who had received conformal partial organ lung irradiation for the treatment of thorax malignancies. Using RGRD, the PTV margin by free breathing can be reduced about 2 cm for moving organs by breathing. TCP values are almost the same values $(4\~5\%\;increased)$ for lung cancer regardless of increasing the PTV margin to 2.0 cm but NTCP values are rapidly increased $(50\~70\%\;increased)$ for upon extending PTV margins by 2.0 cm. Conclusion : Internal organ motion due to breathing can be reduced effectively using our simple RGRD. This method can be used in clinical treatments to reduce organ motion induced margin, thereby reducing normal tissue irradiation. Using treatment planning software, the dose to normal tissues was analyzed by comparing dose statistics with and without RGRD. Potential benefits of radiotherapy derived from reduction or elimination of planning target volume (PTV) margins associated with patient breathing through the evaluation of the lung cancer patients treated with 3D conformal radiotherapy.

Relationships on Magnitude and Frequency of Freshwater Discharge and Rainfall in the Altered Yeongsan Estuary (영산강 하구의 방류와 강우의 규모 및 빈도 상관성 분석)

  • Rhew, Ho-Sang;Lee, Guan-Hong
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.223-237
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    • 2011
  • The intermittent freshwater discharge has an critical influence upon the biophysical environments and the ecosystems of the Yeongsan Estuary where the estuary dam altered the continuous mixing of saltwater and freshwater. Though freshwater discharge is controlled by human, the extreme events are mainly driven by the heavy rainfall in the river basin, and provide various impacts, depending on its magnitude and frequency. This research aims to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of extreme freshwater discharges, and to establish the magnitude-frequency relationships between basin-wide rainfall and freshwater inflow. Daily discharge and daily basin-averaged rainfall from Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 31, 2010 were used to determine the relations between discharge and rainfall. Consecutive daily discharges were grouped into independent events using well-defined event-separation algorithm. Partial duration series were extracted to obtain the proper probability distribution function for extreme discharges and corresponding rainfall events. Extreme discharge events over the threshold 133,656,000 $m^3$ count up to 46 for 13.7y years, following the Weibull distribution with k=1.4. The 3-day accumulated rain-falls which occurred one day before peak discharges (1day-before-3day -sum rainfall), are determined as a control variable for discharge, because their magnitude is best correlated with that of the extreme discharge events. The minimum value of the corresponding 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall, 50.98mm is initially set to a threshold for the selection of discharge-inducing rainfall cases. The number of 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall groups after selection, however, exceeds that of the extreme discharge events. The canonical discriminant analysis indicates that water level over target level (-1.35 m EL.) can be useful to divide the 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall groups into discharge-induced and non-discharge ones. It also shows that the newly-set threshold, 104mm, can just separate these two cases without errors. The magnitude-frequency relationships between rainfall and discharge are established with the newly-selected lday-before-3day-sum rainfalls: $D=1.111{\times}10^8+1.677{\times}10^6{\overline{r_{3day}}$, (${\overline{r_{3day}}{\geqq}104$, $R^2=0.459$), $T_d=1.326T^{0.683}_{r3}$, $T_d=0.117{\exp}[0.0155{\overline{r_{3day}}]$, where D is the quantity of discharge, ${\overline{r_{3day}}$ the 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall, $T_{r3}$ and $T_d$, are respectively return periods of 1day-before-3day-sum rainfall and freshwater discharge. These relations provide the framework to evaluate the effect of freshwater discharge on estuarine flow structure, water quality, responses of ecosystems from the perspective of magnitude and frequency.

Motives for Writing After-Purchase Consumer Reviews in Online Stores and Classification of Online Store Shoppers (인터넷 점포에서의 구매후기 작성 동기 및 점포 고객 유형화)

  • Hong, Hee-Sook;Ryu, Sung-Min
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.25-57
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    • 2012
  • This study identified motives for writing apparel product reviews in online stores, and determined what motives increase the behavior of writing reviews. It also classified store customers based on the type of writing motives, and clarified the characteristics of internet purchase behavior and of a demographic profile. Data were collected from 252 females aged 20s' and 30s' who have experience of reading and writing reviews on online shopping. The five types of writing motives were altruistic information sharing, remedying of a grievance and vengeance, economic incentives, helping new product development, and the expression of satisfaction feelings. Among five motives, altruistic information sharing, economic incentives, and helping new product development stimulate writing reviews. Store customers who write reviews were classified into three groups based on their writing motive types: Other consumer advocates(29.8%), self-interested shoppers(40.5%) and shoppers with moderate motives(29.8%). There were significant differences among three groups in writing behavior (the frequency of writing reviews, writing intent of reviews, duration of writing reviews, and frequency of online shopping) and age. Based on results, managerial implications were suggested. Long Abstract : The purpose of present study is to identify the types of writing motives on online shopping, and to clarify the motives affecting the behavior of writing reviews. This study also classifies online shoppers based on the motive types, and identifies the characteristics of the classified groups in terms of writing behavior, frequency of online shopping, and demographics. Use and Gratification Theory was adopted in this study. Qualitative research (focus group interview) and quantitative research were used. Korean women(20 to 39 years old) who reported experience with purchasing clothing online, and reading and writing reviews were selected as samples(n=252). Most of the respondents were relatively young (20-34yrs., 86.1%,), single (61.1%), employed(61.1%) and residents living in big cities(50.9%). About 69.8% of respondents read and 40.5% write apparel reviews frequently or very frequently. 24.6% of the respondents indicated an "average" in their writing frequency. Based on the qualitative result of focus group interviews and previous studies on motives for online community activities, measurement items of motives for writing after-purchase reviews were developed. All items were used a five-point Likert scale with endpoints 1 (strongly disagree) and 5 (strongly agree). The degree of writing behavior was measured by items concerning experience of writing reviews, frequency of writing reviews, amount of writing reviews, and intention of writing reviews. A five-point scale(strongly disagree-strongly agree) was employed. SPSS 18.0 was used for exploratory factor analysis, K-means cluster analysis, one-way ANOVA(Scheffe test) and ${\chi}^2$-test. Confirmatory factor analysis and path model analysis were conducted by AMOS 18.0. By conducting principal components factor analysis (varimax rotation, extracting factors with eigenvalues above 1.0) on the measurement items, five factors were identified: Altruistic information sharing, remedying of a grievance and vengeance, economic incentives, helping new product development, and expression of satisfaction feelings(see Table 1). The measurement model including these final items was analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis. The measurement model had good fit indices(GFI=.918, AGFI=.884, RMR=.070, RMSEA=.054, TLI=.941) except for the probability value associated with the ${\chi}^2$ test(${\chi}^2$=189.078, df=109, p=.00). Convergent validities of all variables were confirmed using composite reliability. All SMC values were found to be lower than AVEs confirming discriminant validity. The path model's goodness-of-fit was greater than the recommended limits based on several indices(GFI=.905, AGFI=.872, RMR=.070, RMSEA=.052, TLI=.935; ${\chi}^2$=260.433, df=155, p=.00). Table 2 shows that motives of altruistic information sharing, economic incentives and helping new product development significantly increased the degree of writing product reviews of online shopping. In particular, the effect of altruistic information sharing and pursuit of economic incentives on the behavior of writing reviews were larger than the effect of helping new product development. As shown in table 3, online store shoppers were classified into three groups: Other consumer advocates (29.8%), self-interested shoppers (40.5%), and moderate shoppers (29.8%). There were significant differences among the three groups in the degree of writing reviews (experience of writing reviews, frequency of writing reviews, amount of writing reviews, intention of writing reviews, and duration of writing reviews, frequency of online shopping) and age. For five aspects of writing behavior, the group of other consumer advocates who is mainly comprised of 20s had higher scores than the other two groups. There were not any significant differences between self-interested group and moderate group regarding writing behavior and demographics.

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Evaluation of Contralateral Breast Surface Dose in FIF (Field In Field) Tangential Irradiation Technique for Patients Undergone Breast Conservative Surgery (보존적 유방절제 환자의 방사선치료 시 종속조사면 병합방법에 따른 반대편 유방의 표면선량평가)

  • Park, Byung-Moon;Bang, Dong-Wan;Bae, Yong-Ki;Lee, Jeong-Woo;Kim, You-Hyun
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.401-406
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    • 2008
  • The aim of this study is to evaluate contra-lateral breast (CLB) surface dose in Field-in-Field (FIF) technique for breast conserving surgery patients. For evaluation of surface dose in FIF technique, we have compared with other techniques, which were open fields (Open), metal wedge (MW), and enhanced dynamic wedge (EDW) techniques under same geometrical condition and prescribed dose. The three dimensional treatment planning system was used for dose optimization. For the verification of dose calculation, measurements using MOSFET detectors with Anderson Rando phantom were performed. The measured points for four different techniques were at the depth of 0cm (epidermis) and 0.5cm bolus (dermis), and spacing toward 2cm, 4cm, 6cm, 8cm, 10cm apart from the edge of tangential medial beam. The dose calculations were done in 0.25cm grid resolution by modified Batho method for inhomogeneity correction. In the planning results, the surface doses were differentiated in the range of $19.6{\sim}36.9%$, $33.2{\sim}138.2%$ for MW, $1.0{\sim}7.9%$, $1.6{\sim}37.4%$ for EDW, and for FIF at the depth of epidermis and dermis as compared to Open respectively. In the measurements, the surface doses were differentiated in the range of $11.1{\sim}71%$, $22.9{\sim}161%$ for MW, $4.1{\sim}15.5%$, $8.2{\sim}37.9%$ for EDW, and 4.9% for FIF at the depth of epidermis and dermis as compared to Open respectively. The surface doses were considered as underestimating in the planning calculation as compared to the measurement with MOSFET detectors. Was concluded as the lowest one among the techniques, even if it was compared with Open method. Our conclusion could be stated that the FIF technique could make the optimum dose distribution in Breast target, while effectively reduce the probability of secondary carcinogenesis due to undesirable scattered radiation to contra-lateral breast.

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The Comparison of Basic Science Research Capacity of OECD Countries

  • Lim, Yang-Taek;Song, Choong-Han
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.147-176
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    • 2003
  • This Paper Presents a new measurement technique to derive the level of BSRC (Basic Science and Research Capacity) index by use of the factor analysis which is extended with the assumption of the standard normal probability distribution of the selected explanatory variables. The new measurement method is used to forecast the gap of Korea's BSRC level compared with those of major OECD countries in terms of time lag and to make their international comparison during the time period of 1981∼1999, based on the assumption that the BSRC progress function of each country takes the form of the logistic curve. The US BSRC index is estimated to be 0.9878 in 1981, 0.9996 in 1990 and 0.99991 in 1999, taking the 1st place. The US BSRC level has been consistently the top among the 16 selected variables, followed by Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, in order. Korea's BSRC is estimated to be 0.2293 in 1981, taking the lowest place among the 16 OECD countries. However, Korea's BSRC indices are estimated to have been increased to 0.3216 (in 1990) and 0.44652 (in 1999) respectively, taking 10th place. Meanwhile, Korea's BSRC level in 1999 (0.44652) is estimated to reach those of the US and Japan in 2233 and 2101, respectively. This means that Korea falls 234 years behind USA and 102 years behind Japan, respectively. Korea is also estimated to lag 34 years behind Germany, 16 years behind France and the UK, 15 years behind Sweden, 11 years behind Canada, 7 years behind Finland, and 5 years behind the Netherlands. For the period of 1981∼1999, the BSRC development speed of the US is estimated to be 0.29700. Its rank is the top among the selected OECD countries, followed by Japan (0.12800), Korea (0.04443), and Germany (0.04029). the US BSRC development speed (0.2970) is estimated to be 2.3 times higher than that of Japan (0.1280), and 6.7 times higher than that of Korea. German BSRC development speed (0.04029) is estimated to be fastest in Europe, but it is 7.4 times slower than that of the US. The estimated BSRC development speeds of Belgium, Finland, Italy, Denmark and the UK stand between 0.01 and 0.02, which are very slow. Particularly, the BSRC development speed of Spain is estimated to be minus 0.0065, staying at the almost same level of BSRC over time (1981 ∼ 1999). Since Korea shows BSRC development speed much slower than those of the US and Japan but relative]y faster than those of other countries, the gaps in BSRC level between Korea and the other countries may get considerably narrower or even Korea will surpass possibly several countries in BSRC level, as time goes by. Korea's BSRC level had taken 10th place till 1993. However, it is estimated to be 6th place in 2010 by catching up the UK, Sweden, Finland and Holland, and 4th place in 2020 by catching up France and Canada. The empirical results are consistent with OECD (2001a)'s computation that Korea had the highest R&D expenditures growth during 1991∼1999 among all OECD countries ; and the value-added of ICT industries in total business sectors value added is 12% in Korea, but only 8% in Japan. And OECD (2001b) observed that Korea, together with the US, Sweden, and Finland, are already the four most knowledge-based countries. Hence, the rank of the knowledge-based country was measured by investment in knowledge which is defined as public and private spending on higher education, expenditures on R&D and investment in software.

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